Clear & Convincing Confirmation

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Stocks delivered a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line to confirm that Tuesday is day 3 of the new daily cycle.

spx

At 67 days, this was an extended daily cycle. But there are two bullish signals to keep in mind going forward. A peak on day 47 with a daily cycle low on day 67 forms a right translated daily cycle. Therefore our expectation is to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Also the day that stocks printed their daily cycle low, they managed to close above the lower daily cycle band. That indicates that stocks remain in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue to be in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Gold delivered a convincing break lower today.

gld

Gold broke below the previous daily cycle low delivering final confirmation that gold is in an intermediate cycle decline. At day 22, gold has entered its timing band to print a daily cycle low. While gold is likely to deliver some bearish follow through to the big move lower today, once gold forms a swing low, it will have good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

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5 thoughts on “Clear & Convincing Confirmation

    • Stocks have printed some QE fueled extended daily cycle counts emerging from the 2009 bear.
      I suspect that there was some stealth QE taking place that prevented a bear market in February.

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