Still Seeking a Steel Bottom

0000

Back in April I began scouting for a yearly cycle low for steel. I admit that I was early. However I kept monitoring SLX and now the indicators are pointing to a possible yearly cycle low for steel.

3 slx yearly

Steel printed its lowest point in May following the month 13 peak. May was month 16 for the yearly steel cycle. Since the previous 5 yearly cycles averaged 10.4 months, 16 months places steel late in its timing band to print a yearly cycle low. So far steel has been rallying in June. A break above the May high of 38.59 forms a monthly swing low to signal a new yearly cycle.

1 slx weekly

The previous 7 intermediate steel cycles have averaged 16.7 weeks. Steel printed its lowest point back in May, at week 20. That places steel deep in in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While steel has printed a weekly swing low we can see that steel has been coiling and has yet to deliver confirmation that week 20 hosted the intermediate cycle low.

2 slx daily

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily steel cycle. At this point steel may need to dip down and print one more daily cycle low before breaking through the declining 50 day MA. But once steel closes above the 50 day MA, it will also close above the upper daily cycle band. A close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new intermediate cycle and also that May hosted the yearly cycle low.

The 12/23/13 Morning Update

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

We last left the dollar at a major inflection point waiting to see which way it will choose.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The dollar appears to have chosen.

Our expectation for the dollar is to continue into its yearly cycle low. Therefore all daily cycles should form as left translated cycles which should peak on or before day 8. Friday was day 7. The swing high signals that the daily cycle is in decline. And that the dollar will continue to slide into its yearly and three year cycle low.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

The 10/05/13 Weekend Report Preview

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The daily cycle peaked on day 20. Soon after forming its swing high it lost the 200 MA. Then a few days later, the dollar broke below the previous yearly cycle low in a dramatic fashion on Fed Day. After a miner oversold bounce the dollar continued lower through Thursday. Friday saw the dollar print a swing low and declining cycle trend line break.

Image Shack® Online Photo and Video Hosting 201

Thursday was day 32 for the daily dollar cycle. The swing low and trend line break on Friday makes Thursday very likely a cycle low. A daily count of 32 makes this an extended daily cycle. When the dollar prints an extended left translated, failed daily cycle it has a tendency of also forming an intermediate cycle low. You will notice that the yearly cycle low printed in June followed an extended 35 day failed daily cycle.

Stocks
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 15 and has been in decline since.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Friday was day 26 for the daily equity cycle and we see that stocks have been crawling along the 50 MA for the past week. Stocks are still shy of the timing band for a daily cycle low. Also factor in that crawling patterns tend to be continuation patterns. It is likely that we will see stocks break lower into its final daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CCI Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

A free sample report can be found here: http://likesmoneystudies.wordpress.com/

Joining the Party

party Google Search 2013 08 26 20 01 57

The commodities have been printing their yearly cycle lows. It began with oil.

CLY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for Crude

Oil was in a triangle consolidation. Often times the cycle low forms in the apex of the consolidation, which was the case here. Oil put in its yearly cycle low in April

Gold, precious metals, the Miners and Copper all printed their yearly lows in June.

gold

miners

HGY

Granted the precious metals, except silver, have not printed a monthly swing low yet. But they are forming right translated daily cycles and behaving as if they are emerging from yearly lows.

Now it seems that Natgas and Agriculture is joining the party.

natgas

At 16 months, Natgas is forming a bullish monthly reversal.

ag

And we see at 14 months Ag is also printing a bullish reversal.

And this can all be summed up by the CRB Index

crb

The CRB printed its three year low in June 2012. It then printed a higher yearly low this past June and is now on week 9 of a new yearly cycle. The CRB has breached the declining multi-year trend line is on the verge of reclaiming the 50 MA.

A clear and convincing break above the declining multi-year trend line will signal a new bullish trend in commodities. I think that we will see a clear and convincing break when the dollar makes its clear and convincing break below its multi-year trend line.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

With the yearly cycle low forming in June that makes August month 2 of a new yearly dollar cycle. August has already formed a monthly swing high. On top of that, the dollar is on month 27 of its three year cycle and due to begin its journey into its three year low. A break of the grey trend line confirms that the dollar is moving into its three year cycle decline.

Often times the decline into the three year low is a rather nasty affair for the dollar
And a rather bullish time for commodities …

bullish times Google Search 2013 08 26 19 51 3

The 8/23/13 Weekend Report Preview

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Friday was either day 17 or day 3 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar has already printed two failed daily cycles and may already be on day 3 of a new (and likely failed) daily cycle. Our expectation is to continue to see failed daily cycles until the dollar prints an intermediate cycle low.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The dollar first lost the 200 MA as it formed its yearly cycle low in June. It quickly regained the 200 MA as it rallied out of the yearly low and peaking in early July. Following the July peak the dollar printed the ugly bearish reversal and has been declining since. It tested the 200 MA in late July (day 14) and then broke below it in early August. The dollar tried to regain the 200 only to see it get reversed. This week the dollar tried once again to regain the 200 MA only only to be rejected by it. While the daily count may not be clear, the trend certainly is and it is down. The dollar quite likely has begun its decline in into its three year cycle low. And since it lost the 200 MA it may not see it again until the dollar rallies out of the forth coming three year low.

Stocks
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Wednesday was day 41 of the daily equity cycle and it looks like stocks printed its daily cycle low.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

We see that Thursday formed a swing low and Friday provided more follow through with stocks regaining the 50 MA. While stocks have not confirmed a new daily cycle by breaking above the declining cycle trend line, the bullish TSI crossover does add to our confidence that a daily cycle low has been left behind.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Another signal that the daily cycle low printed is the McClellan Oscillator broke above the declining trend line. So with stocks following a right translated daily cycle our expectation is for stocks to print a higher daily cycle high in this new daily cycle. However, the intermediate cycle is suggesting that any new highs may be short lived …

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CCI Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

A free sample report can be found here: http://likesmoneystudies.wordpress.com/

Relative Strength …

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28 and has been in decline since. We discussed on Monday that usually we see a lower Bollinger band breach at daily cycle lows. Equities delivered a lower Bollinger Band breach today on a big 1.43% down day for stocks.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Thursday was day 37 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The timing band stretches to day 45. A swing low accompanied with a declining trend line break will signal a daily cycle low.

Despite the big,down day for stocks — precious metals demonstrated tremendous relative strength.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Gold printed a 27 day right translated daily cycle low on August 7th. It can easily be seen as equities declined into their daily cycle low, gold rallied out if its low. And today with stocks down big, gold was up big, gaining 2.25%. Gold also broke above the previous daily cycle high, printing a higher high. Today provides clear evidence that the trend in gold and precious metals has changed.

The Miners continued their party …

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Like gold, the Miners printed their daily cycle low on August 7th and have not looked back. So while stocks were working their way lower, the Miners were rallying. Prior to the Miners printing their yearly cycle low, if stocks had a big day down then the Miners were taken out to the shed. Now today the Miners printed a whopping 6% gain in the face of the equity smack down. Again, terrific relative strength indicating that the trend has changed.

I want to look at how the Miners reacted to equity sell offs prior to the Miner yearly cycle low.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

The Miners were in an extended yearly cycle decline since October. That decline was exasperated when stocks declined into cycle lows.

Now on the biggest sell off for stocks since precious metals printed their yearly cycle low saw the Miners print one of their biggest days yet.

I think that it is no small coincidence that this big day for precious metals came on the day the dollar lost the 200 MA.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Wednesday was day 11 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar was rejected by the 82 level and the declining trend line. The dollar failed in its attempt hold the 200 MA and the trend for the dollar is down.

And as the dollar continues to drop, precious metals and the Miners will continue to exhibit relative strength.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Money to Burn …

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The Fed will maintain their 85 billion monthly bond buying acknowledging the potential dangers of inflation running too low.

The dollar reacted by printing a bearish reversal.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

So was today an extended daily cycle low or is Monday the daily cycle low and Wednesday day 2?

While it is prudent to be open to the possibility of an extended low, I think that we just witnessed a day 2 peak on a new daily cycle.

Since this was the last trading day of the month, let’s see how the dollar’s monthly chart looks.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The dollar printed a yearly cycle low in June. That makes July month 1 of a new yearly cycle. July also happens to be month 26 of the dollar’s three year cycle. (The dollar has been printing a three year low on average every 35 months for over the past 30 years.) With a three year cycle “due” in 9 months, it is very likely that this new yearly cycle will be the final yearly cycle leading into the three year cycle low.

Three year cycle lows for the dollar tend to be rather nasty affairs. The dollar dropped over 8 points heading into its previous three year low. With QE’s I, II , III, and Infinity I believe that the dollar is in worse shape now then three years ago. We may have just witnessed a yearly cycle peak at month one. If that is the case, this will be an extremely left translated yearly cycle leading into a severe three year cycle low.

Commodities seem to think that the dollar’s daily cycle topped today.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The CRB’s daily cycle peaked a week ago Monday and has been in decline since. Today saw the CRB print a lower low then print a bullish reversal. The CRB is in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low will likely mark the daily cycle low. The bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 283.96 forms a swing low.

Now let’s take a look at the Miners.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The Miners have been printing a series of lower lows since last fall. Today saw the Miners print a doji suggesting a change is at hand.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The Miners daily cycle peaked a week ago Tuesday. The cycle has been in decline since. The Miners broke below the daily cycle trend line yesterday signaling the daily cycle decline. Should the Miners form a swing low here this will be the first higher low since last September. The higher low confirms that the yealy cycle low is behind us and a Miner Opportunity is in front of us.

All courtesy of Ben’s 85 Billion per month party …

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com

The 7/26/13 Morning Update

0 morning update
image hosting software

I wanted to share with you a few charts that I have been watching.

First off is the yearly chart of Agriculture as represented by the ETF DBA.

1 dba
screenshot studio

Like other commodities, agriculture has been in a extended decline into a yearly cycle low. At 13 months, agriculture is in the timing band for a yearly cycle low. Since July printed a lower monthly low, the earliest a monthly swing low can form will be August. A break above 25.40 forms a monthly swing low.

2 DBA Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com
image hosting imageshack

Drilling down to the weekly chart we see that DBA printed a 33 week low three weeks ago. A weekly swing low has formed. A break above the declining trend line will signal a new yearly cycle.

NATGAS is also waiting on a declining weekly trend line break.

3 10 10 7 13 extended decline
photo sharing sites

The intermediate cycle for NATGAS tends to run 18 – 21 weeks. A weekly swing low was formed off the low three weeks ago. A break above the declining trend line confirms a new intermediate cycle.

4 natgas
tool to take screen snapshot

There are 2 things that I want to point out by taking a closer look at the weekly chart. First is the weekly TSI is about to deliver a bullish crossover. Second is that price is currently caught between the 50 MA and the 200 MA. A break above the 200 MA will be the signal that NATGAS is on its way to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle.

I will continue to keep these on my radar …

9 radar
free uploader

imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com

Commodities Changing Gears …

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The yearly commodity cycle peaked in September and has been in a bear market since.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The CRB Index printed a daily cycle low on 6/28. On Thursday, day 8, the CRB has closed above the 50 MA for the second straight day. The CRB has been very bullish since 6/28 by rallying 7 out of 8 days. The strength out of this low looks like an intermediate cycle low has been left behind.

crb
screen capture tool

The CRB printed its previous yearly cycle low in June, 2012. It’s been two weeks since the 6/28 low. The CRB has already formed a weekly swing low and is now challenging the declining weekly cycle trend line. A break above confirms a new intermediate cycle and quite likely a new yearly cycle.

With the CRB on the verge of confirming a new yearly cycle, lets take a look at the “commodity currencies” to see if they are in sync.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The Australian Dollar prints a yearly cycle low on average every 11.7 months. The Canadian Dollar prints one on average every 11.8 months. Both currencies are sitting on month 13 of their yearly cycle and each have breached the lower monthly Bollinger Band.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

AUD prints an intermediate cycle low just about every 15 weeks on average and the CAD prints one every 16.6 weeks on average.

The AUD is printing a bullish reversal on week 17 where the CAD has formed a weekly swing low this week.

So the CRB appears ready to confirm a new intermediate and likely a new yearly cycle. And the “commodity currencies” appear to be doing the same.

Things appear to be gearing up for a bullish run …

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com

Major Opportunity for Miners

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The daily Miner cycle peaked on Monday, which was day 9. Then they traded sideways until Thursday where they tested the declining 50 MA.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Friday was a clear rejection and it looks like the Miners heading into a daily cycle low. We are likely to see the Miners fill the gap at 263.84 during this correction. If this is a daily cycle correction, then the Miners will need to print a daily cycle low before day 18 in order to avoid forming as a left translated daily cycle.

In the short term we can expect a daily cycle correction for the Miners. But I believe a major opportunity is just around the corner. The signal is when the Miners confirm a new yearly cycle.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

May was month 12 for the yearly Miner cycle. A monthly Doji formed along with a monthly Bollinger Band breach. This very likely marked the yearly cycle low. A break above 291.07 forms a monthly swing low. And a break above the declining monthly trend line confirms a new yearly cycle.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index recently printed a double bottom.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The BPGDM has never printed a double zero percent reading before. It has printed a single zero percent reading one other time …

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

And lets see how the Miners responded …

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

So I mentioned earlier that currently the monthly Miner’s chart printed a monthly Bollinger Band crash which is in the timing band for a yearly cycle low. Let’s look at otherr times that the Miners had a monthly Bollinger Band crash in the timing band for a yearly cycle low.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Looking at the past 15 years there are only 3 other times the Miners had a monthly Bollinger Band crash. They just happen to coincide with the three year cycle lows. The resulting rallies from these lows coupled with a monthly Bollinger Band crash tacked on anywhere from 142% to 338%.

And let’s look at one other indicator.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The monthly Trend Strength Indicator indicates when something is oversold or overbought. Looking at the monthly chart for the Mines above we see that the monthly TSI has been this oversold only twice before. The first time saw a gain of 546% and the second time at this level saw the Miners gain 324%.

So by looking at three different indicators we see that the Miners are historically oversold. And each one of these indicators marked levels close to or at the bottoms where the results were triple digit rallies.

If the Miners haven’t bottomed,they are close.
Once a monthly swing low does print, I think that will turn the switch…

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

For this week I will offer a 1 month trial subscription of the Weekend Report.
$15 for one month allows you access to the entire Likesmoney Weekend Report Suite.

Included is the Weekend Report Suite:
My notebook on Miner Studies, Dollar Studies, Equities Studies, and Corn Studies
There is also my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator and the Bullish Percent Index Bingo

Click here for to signup for a 1 month trial:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=KBYHDKHFX66WG

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com imagebam.com