The 6/22/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar’s bearish reversal on day 5 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar followed up Thursday’s bearish reversal by forming a daily swing high. The dollar also closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the beginning of the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 5 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework, which I discuss in the Weekend Report. However, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28. Then went on to form a swing high and close below the day 10 MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 32, which places stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Wednesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

But stocks formed a swing high on Thursday, negating Wednesday’s swing low. A break below 2743.19 will extend the daily cycle decline. But a close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Stocks Deliver Cycle Band Buy Signal

Stocks delivered a cycle band buy signal on Wednesday.

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs (lows) above the lower daily cycle band. The decline into the day 32 low was mild but did mange to close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower. The swing low that formed on Wednesday formed above the lower daily cycle band to deliver a cycle band buy signal and indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Daily Cycle Decline

On Tuesday, stocks confirmed their daily cycle decline.

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA and also broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that the daily cycle is in decline. The peak on day 28 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. With Tuesday being day 32, stocks are in their timing band to print a DCL. So once a swing low forms, it will have good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

Stocks have established a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band that would indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and would be a signal to enter long positions.

Still Waiting on a Cycle Band Buy Signal

Stocks have established that they are in a daily uptrend. A daily uptrend is price series that is characterized by peaks forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows (troughs) forming below the lower daily cycle band.

Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks have formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA, stocks still need to deliver a break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

I would prefer to see a clear and convincing break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that the daily cycle is in decline. But we need to be ready should stocks deliver a cycle band buy signal. Since stocks are in a daily uptrend, a swing low that forms above the lower daily cycle band will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend. Therefore the formation of a swing low above the lower daily cycle band will trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The Mighty Dollar

The dollar ended last week forming a weekly swing high that followed the tag of the 50 week MA.

The weekly swing high signaled that the beginning of the intermediate cycle decline. This also aligned with our longer term view of the dollar declining into its 3 year cycle.

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The dollar began the day on Thursday by breaking below the day 36 low. At first it appeared that the new daily cycle was rolling over on day 4.

Then boom.

The dollar began to rally and closed near the high of the day to print a bullish engulfing candle. This extends the daily cycle decline to make Thursday day 41 of an extended daily cycle. The below the bullish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 94.61 forms a swing low to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar certainly surprised us with its bullish print on Thursday. Since surprises tend to arrive on the side of the trend, Thursday’s dollar surprise clearly indicates a bullish trend. In the Weekend report I plan to discuss what Thursday’s bullish surprise means on the longer term 3 year cycle . And what would need to happen to cause us to change our longer term 3 year cycle framework.

The 6/08/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 36, placing it late in its timing band for a DCL. Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle.

The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Confirmation of a new daily cycle will indicate that the dollar is beginning its 4th daily cycle. Which makes it likely to be the terminal daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Therefore we will be watching for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks closed at a new daily cycle high on Friday. However the over 2.7 billion Selling on Strength over the past 6 trading days warrants caution.

While stocks closed at a new daily cycle high on Friday, Thursday remains as the daily cycle peak. Unless stocks break higher, day 24 would remain as the daily cycle peak. Therefore a break below 2760.16 would form a daily swing high to signal daily cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line would then confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/01/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Wednesday and broke the daily cycle trend line on Thursday to signal the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 32 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar should close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower before a daily cycle low can form. The peak on day 29 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

With the Russell breaking out to new highs on Wednesday and the Nasdaq on Friday I suspect that the S&P will follow suit..

Stocks formed a swing low & closed back above the 10 DMA to signal that day 17 hosted a half cycle low. Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band to remain in its daily uptrend. Stocks need to break above the day 13 high of 2742.24 in order to form a right translated daily cycle.

However the large Selling on Strength print signals that the daily cycle may be topping …

There was a 635 million Selling on Strength number that printed on Friday. While stocks can still rally higher, this signals caution going forward.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Equity Cycle Update

After peaking on day 13 stocks trended lower, printing its lowest point on Tuesday, day 17. Stocks then formed a swing low on Wednesday, closing above the 10 day MA to signal that day 17 is a half cycle low.

Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Wednesday’s swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band indicating that stocks remain in their daily uptrend. Stocks will need to break above the day 13 high of 2742.24 in order to form a right translated daily cycle.

However, stocks lost the 10 day MA on Thursday. So we will need to watch the daily cycle trend line. A break below this trend line would signal that the daily cycle is in decline. A close below the lower daily cycle band would end the daily uptrend and signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

TSX Cycle Band Buy Signal

The TSX formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The TSX printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 39. That places the TSX in its timing band for a DCL. So Wednesday’s swing low signals day 1 of the new daily cycle. The TSX also closed back above the upper daily cycle band. Closing back above the upper daily cycle band resumes the daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal. The TSX should remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Potential Half Cycle Low

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for over the past 2 weeks since emerging from the day 23 low. On Tuesday stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation.

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to Tuesday which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. So while stocks did break lower, stocks printed a bullish tail above the 50 day MA potentially setting up a half cycle low. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band would indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend. Then a close back above the 10 day MA would confirm that day 17 hosted a half cycle low.

What we need to watch for if stocks do not form a swing low but instead closes below the lower daily cycle band. That not only would confirm that stocks are in a daily cycle decline. It would also signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline as well.