Oil About to Confirm New Uptrend

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After emerging form its yearly cycle low in June, oil tested and was rejected by the 50 day MA. But oil recovered and then continued to rally, peaking on day 27. Then oil began its daily cycle decline, printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 39.

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At day 39, that placed oil in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Oil formed a swing low on Friday off of support from the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to declining into its 39 day DCL to establish a daily uptrend. Oil managed to close above the lower daily cycle band as it printed its DCL on Thursday. Once oil closes back above the upper daily cycle band that will confirm the new daily uptrend. Oil will then remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Possible Daily Cycle Low for Oil

Oil printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

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The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. Oil did not form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil finally broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point on Tuesday. At 37 days, that places oil well within its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal also eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 47.92 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to entering its daily cycle decline, which indicates that oil is in a daily uptrend. If oil forms a daily cycle low above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

Daily Cycle Low

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Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

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Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 29. After a narrow range day on Friday stocks rallied enough on Monday to recover all of Thursday’s drop. That and the fact that stocks also formed a daily swing low convinces me that the daily cycle low has been set. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will confirm the new daily cycle.

Oil confirmed its daily cycle decline on Monday.

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The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. It did not manage to form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm that oil is in its daily cycle decline. Monday was day 36, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. If a swing low forms now, it has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. If the daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

Stocks Deliver Bearish Follow Through

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Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday. On Wednesday stocks formed a swing high which signaled the daily cycle decline. Thursday's bearish follow through indicates something more sinister than a daily cycle decline is afoot.

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Thursday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks broke below the 50 day MA to close below the lower daily cycle band which indicates an end to the daily uptrend. It also signals that the intermediate cycle is now in decline. While a peak on day 27 usually results in a right translated cycle formation, stocks closing below the lower daily cycle band calls that in to question. Which means breaking below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 is certainly a possibility. If that were to happen that would confirm that stocks are in an intermediate cycle decline.

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The weekly chart shows that stocks are still in a weekly uptrend that is characterized by weekly highs above the upper weekly cycle band and lows forming above the lower weekly cycle band. At 39 weeks stocks are very deep in their timing band to begin an intermediate cycle decline. So while the close below the lower daily cycle band signals that stocks are beginning their intermediate decline, a weekly swing high is required. Since stocks printed a new high this week, the earliest a weekly swing high can form will be next week. But even if stocks form a weekly swing high next week stocks will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

Uptrends

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Tonight I wanted to look at some different stages of uptrends, beginning with stocks.

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Even though stocks formed a swing high on Wednesday, they remain firmly in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Gold began to close above the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower last Friday. Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 21, but did not close below the lower daily cycle band. Now that gold has closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday, this establishes that gold is in a new daily uptrend. Gold should remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Miners also began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to peaking on day 16. Like gold, the Miners did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. If he Miners can now close back above the upper daily cycle band it too, will have established a new daily uptrend.

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Conversely, the dollar’s decline into the YCL is stretching its daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. The downtrend has been characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Even though the dollar has formed a swing low and appears to have begun a new daily cycle, the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

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Stocks Form Bearish Reversal

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Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday.

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Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks 3 days shy of their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks formed a bearish reversal after breaking out to a new high on Tuesday. The bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 2472.99 will form a swing high to signal that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

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As we discussed here last week, even if stocks form a daily swing high to begin their daily cycle decline the bigger picture is that stocks are in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. So even is stocks decline into a daily cycle low, they will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 8/04/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The decline into the YCL is stretching the daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. At this point we need to see a close above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend.

Stocks
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Stocks peaked on day 19 and has since been forming a mini triangle consolidation.

1) Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Friday.
2) A break above 2484.04 signals that day 19 was the half cycle low.
3) Stocks are clearly in a daily uptrend.
4) Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Steel Update

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Steel appears to be on the way to confirming a new daily cycle.

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The daily steel cycle peaked last week on day 24. It then formed a swing high and began its daily cycle decline. Steel printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 28. Steel formed a swing low on Thursday. Steel is delivering a clear and convincing break above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm the new daily cycle. It also appears that steel will close above the upper daily cycle band. Steel is currently in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Bullish Uptrend

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The daily equity cycle has been forming a mini triangle consolidation since peaking last Thursday which was day 19.

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Stocks are currently on day 24 for their daily cycle. That is 6 days shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA along with the bearish TSI divergence suggest that stocks are setting up for completing their daily cycle decline.

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So if stock break bearishly to complete their daily cycle decline the bigger picture is that stocks are in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. So even is stocks decline into a daily cycle low, they will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 7/28/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued lower this week printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 46.

At 46 days the dollar is very deep in its timing band for a DCL so once a swing low forms it has good odds of marking the DCL. A break above 93.95 forms a swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
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Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 19. A new high on day 19 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation.

The daily oscillators have turned bearish signaling an impending daily cycle decline. A break below the day 19 high of 2459.93 would form a daily swing high to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. However, Friday’s 413 million Buying on Strength point to stocks continuing higher. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report