The 12/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. This indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday. At 12 days, that is too early to expect a DCL. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday. It is likely that this is a counter trend rally to back test the 50 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks delivered sell signals on Thursday. But breaking to a new high on Friday to negate the daily swing high.

Friday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. It also solidifies the daily cycle trend line. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Equity Sell Signal

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows above the lower daily cycle band. While stocks remain in their daily uptrend, they delivered some sell signals on Thursday.

After dipping into a half cycle low last week stocks broke out to a new high on Tuesday and Wednesday. However stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and printed a failed breakout which signals that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The divergent TSI along with the bearish TSI crossover are other signals that stocks are beginning their daily cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

Meanwhile the Miners continue to develop bullishly.

After the huge day on Wednesday it is not unexpected to see the Miners give back a little on Thursday. However, the Miners continue to develop bullishly as buyers stepped in once the Miners tagged the 10 day MA. That helps to further confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL. And this has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I discussed in Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.

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Oil Confirms New Daily Cycle

image

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 32, formed a swing high, and then began its daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point last Thursday, day 41, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Oil formed a swing low on Friday. Then it closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm that Monday was day 2 for the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band, continuing in its daily uptrend. And the correct strategy in an uptrend is to buy the dip.

However the longer term picture suggests to proceed with caution.

Oil has now entered the 4th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. This is week 25, which places oil in its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. So while our expectation would be to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated, failed daily cycle oil could still rally for 2 to 3 weeks and still form as a left translated daily cycle.

The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Buy Signal for Robotics

We discussed on 11/26 how Robotics have entered into a new bull market.
Well Robotics delivered some buy signals on Thursday.

Robotics have been declining into a daily cycle low. They printed their lowest point on Wednesday, closing below the 50 day MA. They formed a swing low on Thursday, closing back above the 50 day MA. This sets up a low risk entry with a stop being placed below Wednesday’s low.

Robotics have been in a daily uptrend prior to declining into Wednesday’s low. The recovery of the 50 day MA looks very similar to the two previous intermediate lows that printed in April and July. And a close back above the upper daily cycle band will re-establish the daily uptrend.

Bullish Signals

Stocks were down again on Monday.

Monday was day 12 for the daily equity cycle. Despite printing two consecutive losses, stocks are still delivering bullish signals. The first bullish signal to point out is that stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that stocks are in a daily uptrend.

Stocks just printed back to back huge Buying on Weakness days. The large numbers printed on Friday and Monday look more like the type of numbers typically seen prior to an intermediate cycle low. Historically speaking, large Buying on Weakness numbers have been followed by stocks breaking higher.

The other thing to keep in mind is that stocks are also in their most bullish time of the year.

I think what happened is that stocks emerged out of the day 60 DCL and got overheated and got too stretched above the 10 day MA. So stocks needed to consolidate the gain. The large BOW numbers are signaling bullish interest. So the take away is that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. And the correct strategy in the daily uptrend is to buy the dip as we have seen with the day 60 DCL.

Miner Potential

0 miner surprise

The dollar has not yet confirmed a new daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. While the dollar breached the declining trend line, it needs to break convincingly above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However any dollar rally is likely to be short lived. The dollar is in a confirmed intermediate cycle decline. Therefore our expectation is for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

And the dollar declining into an intermediate cycle low is typically bullish for precious.

Thursday was day 18 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a DCL. A break above 22.53 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA would confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners can potentially form a right translated cycle that prints a higher low. That would indicate that November did host the intermediate cycle low and that the Miners are beginning a new daily uptrend. The Miners would then need to close are the upper daily cycle band in order to establish a new daily uptrend.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Stocks printed their daily cycle low on November 15th. A swing low formed the next day to signal the new daily cycle. Last week stocks broke out to new highs, confirming the new daily cycle. On Monday stocks appeared to have stalled.

This actually resembles how stocks emerged from the August cycle low. Once stocks broke out to new highs on September 12th they stalled for close to 2 weeks, which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

We could be seeing a similar pattern develop here. The thing to keep in mind is that stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Bullish on Robotics

Robotics have recently recently begun a new bull market.

1) Robotics had a multi year consolidation.
2) Robotics then had a bearish break down out of consolidation
3) The bearish break down was followed by a back test of that break down, which exhausted bears. Then robotics began to rally.
4) Robotics went on to regain the 50 week MA
5) It then back tested the 50 week MA as it printed its ICL in June of 2016.
6) The back test was followed by a bullish break out of consolidation in September of 2016.
7) It back tested the consolidation in October and has been on a bullish run.
8) And since it began its bullish run volume has picked up tremendously.

This is very similar to how Biotech began its bull run.

Biotech exhibited the same elements before its bullish run.
1) There was a multi year consolidation.
2) There was a bearish break down out of consolidation.
3) There was a back test of the bearish break down.
4) Biotech regains the 50 week MA.
5) Biotech back tested the 50 week MA
6) There was a bullish break out of consolidation
7) There was a back test of the break out from consolidation.
8) And when it began its bullish run volume has picked up tremendously.

And biotech managed to rally over 259%,.

Robotics is in a confirmed weekly uptrend. It will remain in a weekly uptrend until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band. Taking a closer look at Robotics we can see that it has formed a weekly swing low. The weekly swing low sets up a low risk entry with the stop being placed below the week 19 low. And the correct strategy in a weekly uptrend is to buy the dip.

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report