Gold Poised for a Daily Cycle Decline

Gold formed a daily swing high on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 18 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A peak on day 17 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with gold being in a daily uptrend. A close below the breakout level would be a clear indication that gold has begun its daily cycle decline. Gold will remain in its daily uptrend long as it forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band.

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The 12/07/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

After rallying on Monday, the dollar declined into Friday.

The dollar lost the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered more bearish follow through on Friday indicating that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. The peak on day 5 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. With Friday being day 11, the dollar could trend lower for the next 3 to 4 weeks before printing its DCL. The dollar currently is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

I believe that stocks printed an intermediate cycle low on 10/29/18. However, both the Russell and the Banking index have broken below their October lows to form failed daily cycles.

The continued volatility has obscured our daily cycle count. I believe that Friday should be day 27, placing stocks 3 days shy of its timing band for a DCL. What is clear is that stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

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The 12/01/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The last time the dollar delivered clarity for a daily cycle low was the September DCL.

Since the September low, the dollar has been firmly in a daily uptrend. Assuming that day 25 was the DCL, that sets up a possible left translated daily cycle formation for the dollar. A break below the daily cycle trend line would signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks

Following the day 7 peak, stocks closed below both the 200 DMA and the 10 DMA and turned the 10 DMA lower to indicate that stocks were declining into a daily cycle low.

I am not comfortable labeling day 18 as the DCL. However, cycles often will balance out an extended daily cycle with a shortened cycle and the previous cycle did extend out to day 52. Setting aside the daily cycle count, the day 18 low does satisfy the other criteria for a DCL. But due to the proximity of the 200 DMA and the 50 DMA, I would like to see a close above these two moving averages for confirmation of the DCL.

Stocks delivered a signal Friday for more volatility. Stocks printed 616 million Selling on Strength on Friday. Stocks are in a daily downtrend and facing resistance from both the 200 MA and the declining 50 day MA. Rejection by the 200 MA would indicate that day 18 was a half cycle low.

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The 1/16/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Monday, day 19. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar formed a swing high on Wednesday and then closed below the the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band it will remain in its daily uptrend. But if a swing low forms below the lower daily cycle band that would end the daily uptrend and indicate the beginning of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

The initial surge out of the day 52 DCL left behind 2 gaps and caused stocks the get extended above the 10 day MA.

Stocks filled the lower gap on Thursday and then formed a swing low on Friday. This allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line (and move up stops) and label day 13 as the half cycle low.

This is the 1st daily cycle for the new intermediate cycle. Therfore our cyclical expectation is to see this daily cycle right translate. Stocks will need to break above the day 7 high of 2815.15 to do so. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.

If stocks have begun a new intermediate cycle then they will need to establish a new daily uptrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

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Miner Uncertainty

The status of the daily Miner cycle remains uncertain.

Day 36 is the lowest point following the day 29 peak. The Miners did form a swing low and also closed above the 10 MA to signal a new daily cycle. But they have not delivered convincing evidence that day 36 was the DCL. The only clarity that we have is that the Miners are in a daily uptrend. However, a close below the lower daily cycle band would end the daily uptrend and indicate that the Miners have begun their intermediate cycle decline.

The 11/09/18 Weekend Report

The Dollar

Monday’s big drop in real time looked like the dollar had begun its daily cycle decline.

The dollar back-tested the breakout and then continued higher. While the dollar did close below the 10 day MA, it did not manage to turn it lower. Therefore we will label day 16 has a half cycle low making Friday day 18. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a weekly swing low and closed above the 50 week MA.

With stocks being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low this convinces me that week 38 hosted the ICL. Still, stocks are in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper weekly cycle band.

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Gold Confirms Daily Uptrend

The daily gold cycle peaked on Friday, day 20. A swing high formed on Monday as gold closed below the 10 day MA to begin its daily cycle decline. Gold continued lower this week. It managed to turn the 10 day MA lower and print its lowest point on Wednesday, day 23, placing gold in its timing band for a DCL. Then Boom!

Gold backtested to top of the consolidation zone and exploded higher, forming a swing low on Thursday. Gold rallied for 1.94% to close above both the 10 day MA and the upper daily cycle band confirming the new daily cycle. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band is a cycle band buy signal which confirms the daily uptrend.

The 10/20/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

It appears that the dollar printed a shortened, 17 day DCL on Tuesday.

Closing below the lower daily cycle band and below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA convinced me that day 17 hosted the DCL. Therefore closing above both moving averages and the upper daily cycle band confirms the new daily cycle. It also establishes that dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

However, the dollar printed a bearish candle on Friday, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 95.28 will form a swing high. If the dollar does so and close back below the aforementioned moving averages, that will confirm the daily cycle decline, setting up a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks

Despite forming a daily swing low, stocks still await confirmation that day 40 hosted the daily cycle low.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 40 placing them in their timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. A close above the declining day 10 MA will confirm.

Stocks are being compressed by the declining 10 day MA and the 200 day MA. Friday’s 319 million Buying on Weakness suggests a bullish resolution. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their downtrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The 10/12/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The bearish reversal on Tuesday followed by closing below the 50 day MA on Thursday confirms the daily cycle decline.

The dollar peaked on day 12 and printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 15. Since 25 out of the last 30 daily cycles stretched 24 days or longer, a peak on day 12 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar still needs to turn the 10 day MA lower before we can expect a DCL to form. Currently the dollar is in a daily uptrend. A close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 40. That places stocks in their timing band for a DCL.

Stocks printed an inside day on Friday, closing above the 200 day MA. Stocks will need to break above 2795.14 in order to form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. However, the 764 million Selling on Strength that printed on Friday suggests that the bottom is not yet in. If Thursday was the DCL then stocks should not be printing large SOS days …

Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band which ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend.

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Gold Recognition Day

Boom!

Gold rallied on Thursday, which I believe was a Recognition Day. Gold sliced through the declining 50 day MA to close above the upper daily cycle band in a clear and convincing manner indicating an end to the daily downtrend and the start of a new daily uptrend. This reminds me of the Natgas Recognition day we discussed back on 9/18.

The similarities include:
* Recent cycle low
* A test of the 50 day MA
* A slight retrace from the 50 day MA
* Boom
* Then the ensuing rally