The 10/20/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday to confirm that day 24 hosted the DCL which makes Friday day 5 of the new daily cycle.

The dollar established a daily uptrend prior to the drop into the daily cycle low. By closing back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday affirms the daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday and appear to have begun a new daily cycle.

A decline into a daily cycle low normally lasts 7 to 15 days. The peak on day 40 is an extremely right translated daily cycle formation which does not leave much time in the normal timing band for a normal daily cycle decline. We also discussed how the behavior of previous 2 intermediate cycle has changed because they did not produce a failed daily cycle. Unless proven otherwise this change in behavior is filtering down to the daily cycle level as evidenced by the 1 day decline into a daily cycle low.

Part of our evidence that stocks printed a 1 day daily cycle decline is that both the Russell and the transports delivered a more recognizable daily cycle decline. All three have formed swing lows and closed back above their respective 10 day MA’s to signal new daily cycles. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Right Translation

The S&P, the Russell and the Transports are all forming right translated daily cycles. Right translated daily cycles trend higher in a stair step fashion.

All 3 are getting late in their timing bands for a daily cycle low. Both the Russell and the transports have delivered a recognizable correction while the S&P has only formed a swing high. If there has been a change in character, as we discussed here, then we may not see much in the way of a correction for the S&P. However, all three remain in a daily uptrend. So if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band the correction strategy is to buy the dip. That is because once an asset is in a daily uptrend, they will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Energy stocks have also formed a right translated daily cycle.

XLE peaked on day 27 and has since been slowly working its way into its daily cycle low. A peak on day 27 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. XLE printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 27 peak. That places XLE deep in its timing band for a DCL. At this point a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will confirm a new daily cycle. XLE has begun a new daily uptend. It will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Change of Character – Revisited

We discussed back on 10/01/17 that stocks were beginning to exhibit a change of character. I thought that tonight we would a revisit that discussion.

That last time that stocks printed a failed daily cycle was during the decline into the October, 2016 intermediate cycle low. Following the 10/2016 intermediate low the intermediate cycle timing bands still worked, but two times in a row stocks did not deliver a failed daily cycle during their intermediate cycle decline. I said then that “I believe that this weekly uptrend is becoming so strong that we may not see a failed daily cycle until the weekly uptrend ends.” And that continues to be the case.

But I will point out that both the RUT & the transports delivered failed daily cycles. So I thought that it would be interesting to look at the current daily cycle for all three.

Both the RUT & the transports are in their timing bands for seeking out a daily cycle low. Both have formed swing highs and delivered trend line breaks to confirm their daily cycle declines. But stocks keep drifting higher. Since stocks have already exhibited a change of behavior by not forming a failed daily cycle we need to be prepared for another change of character, a mild daily cycle decline.

I would like to see stocks form a swing high and deliver a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. However, if both the RUT & the transports form a swing low and close back above their 10 day MA that would signal a new daily cycle. And if stocks only continue to drift sideways we may be forced to recognize any mild dip at that point as the daily cycle low.

So going forward there may be a question if our timing band tool will be effective as stocks continue in their weekly uptrend. But what has been effective is our cycle band tool. Our cycle band tool has been able to identify both the daily and weekly uptrends. As long as any dip forms a swing low above the lower cycle band, then the correct strategy is that the dip should be bought because stocks will continue in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Friday’s bullish reversal at support off the 50 day MA sets up for a daily cycle low to form. 

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 24.  That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low.  A  break above 93.09 forms a daily swing low.  A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend & will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher printing a new high on Friday, day 37.


 

Stocks are in their timing band for a seeking a DCL.  At this point a swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Signals A New Daily Cycle

Oil printed its lowest point on Monday, which was day 25. That is 5 days shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. However, oil is giving every indication that a daily cycle low has formed.

The decline into the day 25 low caused oil to deliver a 50% fib retracement, which we can see at a DCL. Oil then formed a swing low on Tuesday and delivered more bullish follow through on Wednesday causing oil has closed back above the 10 day MA. Oil also has closed above the upper daily cycle band to indicate that it continues in its daily uptrend. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10/06/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday, setting up a potential move down into a daily cycle low.

Friday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing the dollar in its timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 93.60 will form a daily swing high. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

trend line

Stocks
stocks

Thursday’s new high on day 31 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for seeking out a daily cycle low. A swing high and trend line break will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 2540.02 would form a daily swing high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Oil Delivers A Buy Signal

Oil delivered a buy signal on Thursday.

There is a little uncertainty if day 23 represents an early DCL or was it a half cycle low. However what is certain is that oil had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to this dip into the day 23 low. Oil formed a swing low and closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday to indicate that oil remains in it its daily uptrend. And a swing low in a daily uptrend is a buy signal. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Oil Confirms Daily Cycle Decline

On Thursday we discussed how the bearish reversal was setting oil up for a decline into its daily cycle low. On Monday oil confirmed that it has begun its daily cycle decline.

Oil formed a swing high on Monday that closed convincingly below the 10 day MA. Oil also pierced the daily cycle trend line. Both of these signals indicate that oil has begun its daily cycle decline. With Monday being only day 21 that will allow enough time for oil to drop further so as to turn the 10 day MA lower.

Oil still managed to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that oil is in a daily uptrend. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Change of Character

Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday, which was day 28. That locks in a right translated cycle formation and confirms that 8/21 hosted an intermediate cycle low.

With stocks locking in a right translated daily cycle formation that confirms that week 42 hosted the ICL. Which makes this week 5 for the new intermediate cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper weekly cycle band indicating a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

It is time to recognize a change in character for stocks. Back in March stocks declined into what looked like an intermediate cycle low. Stocks satisfied most of the parameters necessary for an intermediate cycle low aside from forming a failed daily cycle.

Our cycle band tool did correctly point to March hosting an ICL, as well as the recent ICL. We did not label an ICL in March because it did not form a failed daily cycle. But stocks just confirmed an ICL without a failed daily cycle…

I believe that this weekly uptrend is becoming so strong that we may not see a failed daily cycle until the weekly uptrend ends. Based on that I have re-labeled the March low as an intermediate cycle low which makes the recent ICL a 21 week ICL.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report