The 6/16/17 Weekend Report preview

The Dollar
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The dollar undercut the day 49 low, extending the daily cycle out to day 54. The dollar formed a daily swing low on Thursday indicating that day 54 hosted the DCL.

54 days places the dollar very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Still, the dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has been closing below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Day 15 remains as the daily cycle high keeping alive the possibility of a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for the past two plus weeks. The bearish divergence developing on the momentum oscillators indicate a bearish resolution to the consolidation. A break below the day 15 low of 2415.70 will form a daily swing high and indicating a left translated cycle formation. Stocks remain in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/09/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a daily swing low this week.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 49, placing the dollar very deep into its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Thursday. The dollar continued higher on Friday to close above the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued to close above the upper daily cycle band this past week which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Even though stocks printed a new high on Friday, stocks closed lower on the day. Friday’s bearish close may indicate a daily cycle top. If so, a peak on day 15 would signal a left translated daily cycle formation that would lead into an intermediate cycle decline. A break below 2415.70 foms a daily swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA should send stocks into their daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/02/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Since the dollar printed its yearly cycle low in May, 2016 — 5 of the previous 7 daily dollars cycles were 30 days or longer. Four of them stretching past 36 days.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, stretching the current daily cycle out to day 46. At this point, a daily swing low and a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher last week.

Friday was day 10 for the daily equity cycle and stocks again printed a new high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless then close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bearish Gold Divergence

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The dollar printed its lowest point last week on Monday, day 38. Which places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low and rallied into Friday which makes it look like day 38 hosted the daily cycle low.

Then the dollar closed lower on Monday.

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Even though the dollar closed lower on Monday, it still appears to be rallying out of a daily cycle low. And I think gold’s reaction on Tuesday supports that notion. Lately when the dollar declines, gold has rallied.

gold daily

In The Weekend Report we discussed the conflicting messages from gold.

The evidence that gold is in a new intermediate cycle:
* A new high on day 14 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.
* Gold is establishing a new daily uptrend.
* Week 21 places gold in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
* A weekly swing low has formed.
* Gold has broke above the declining weekly trend line.
* Gold has closed above the 50 week MA.

Reasons that prevents us from labeling May 9th as the ICL.
1) Gold has yet to deliver a failed daily cycle.
2) The dollar is beginning to rally into a new daily cycle.
3) A weekly swing low has formed on the dollar.
4) The Miners have been diverging bearishly from gold.

So instead of rallying on a day where the dollar closed lower, gold also closed lower — perhaps sensing the dollar has formed a daily cycle low. A close below 1261.80 will form a swing high on gold. Then a close below the 200 day MA will confirm that gold’s daily cycle is in decline. Since the previous 4 daily cycles for gold stretched between 28 days and 48 days, a peak on day 14 could still result in a left translated cycle formation.

The 5/26/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 10 peak. Monday was day 38, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday. A close above the 10 day MA will signal that day 38 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed at an all time high on Friday.

Stocks broke above the previous daily cycle high on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday. This confirmst that Friday was day 6 for the new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate that they are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in the daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Taking a Look at Stocks

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Stocks broke out to a new high on Monday. So let’s take a closer look at both the daily and weekly cycles.

spx

Stocks peaked on day 30. Stocks then formed a swing high and broke clearly below the daily cycle trend line to print its lowest point on Thursday, day 32. That placed stocks in the early part of their timing band for a daily cycle low. Normally a daily cycle decline lasts 7 to 15 days which causes the RSI to become oversold. But with stocks in a daily and weekly uptrend, this may be all the correction we will see for the daily cycle decline. Therefore we will label Monday day 2 for the new daily cycle.

spx weekly

The weekly cycle peaked on week 17 and then printed its lowest point on week 21. That does place stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. But week 21 lacks 2 key things that normally accompany an intermediate cycle low.

The first thing is that stocks did not print a failed daily cycle as it declined into the week 21 low. The other missing criteria is that the weekly RSI did not get oversold. Normally a decline into an intermediate cycle low sees the weekly RSI become oversold. There is one more troubling thing about labeling week 21 as an ICL and that is the bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. Stocks are at an all time high but the bearish divergences suggests that decline into the ICL still needs to occur. So unless I see compelling evidence develop I will label this week as week 28 for the intermediate equity cycle.

Daily Uptrends

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Bonds began to close above their upper daily cycle band in March to establish a daily uptrend.

6 tlt dsily

While bonds are in an uptrend, they are currently seeking out their daily cycle low. Bonds printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 34. That places bonds deep in their timing band for a DCL. At this point we are looking for a swing low and a break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. A break above 122.14 will form a daily swing low. As long as bonds do not close below their lower daily cycle band they will remain in their daily uptrend.

Stocks are also in a daily uptrend.

spx

Monday was daily 24 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks 6 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. Gaps are beginning to develop that will likely get filled during the impending daily cycle decline. A swing high has already formed off the day 21 peak. A break below 2382.66 would send stocks into their daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 4/28/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke below the previous DCL on Tuesday to form a failed daily cycle.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days. Tuesday, day 20, was the lowest point following the day 10 peak. So it is a bit early for a daily cycle low. But we will see on the weekly chart that the dollar has found support at the 50 week MA. (The weekly, yearly, 3 year, and 15 year super cycle is discussed in the Weekend Report) Therefore, a swing low and break of the daily cycle trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. The new high on day 21, shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to cool off. A break below the 10 day MA will signal that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Potential Oil Reversal

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Oil printed a bullish reversal on Thursday.

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 15. It printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 25. That places oil in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and a close above the declining 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

oil daily 2

Oil’s daily cycle has averaged 38 days since the February, 2016 low. So it is early to be looking for a DCL. But there are a few signals on the daily and weekly charts that point to a possible 25 day, DCL. First off, the aforementioned bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 49.22 forms a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle. Also the oscillators are beginning to develop bullish divergences, which often accompany cycle lows.

oil weekly

The 50 week MA has acted as support since oil emerged from from is 3 year cycle low. So there is a possibility that oil is back testing the 50 week MA. A close below the 50 week MA indicates that oil is continuing its yearly cycle decline. But if Thursday’s bullish reversal marked the daily cycle low, that would allow oil to close above the 50 week MA for the week, which would allow us to construct a weekly cycle trend line. Oil is in a weekly uptrend. It will continue in its weekly uptrend until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Look Test

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Stocks broke above the declining daily cycle trend line on Monday and then delivered more bullish follow through on Tuesday.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on Tuesday shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are also beginning to close back again above the upper daily cycle band to reestablish its daily uptrend. All of this suggests that stocks are not just in a new daily cycle, but a new intermediate cycle as well.

However, many will be skeptical of such a labeling due to the fact that stocks did not form a failed daily cycle during the recent sell-off.

It is possible for an intermediate low to form absent of a failed daily cycle. While this is rare, one did occur back in 2013.

spx daily 2013

Back in 2013 stocks had a daily cycle decline that ran 23 days before printing its daily cycle low. Usually a daily cycle decline lasts 7 – 15 days.

spx weekly 2013

And the weekly chart back in 2013 passed the ‘look test’ for an intermediate decline. Stocks clearly broke below the weekly trend line and formed a weekly swing low to indicate a new intermediate cycle.

spx weeekly

And the current weekly chart also passes the look test. Stocks clearly broke below the weekly trend line as it declined into its week 21 low. Now stocks have delivered a clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line to signal that this is week 4 of the new intermediate cycle. And if I am correct that this is a new intermediate cycle then that should push the yearly cycle low out to late summer.