The 2/22/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar formed a daily swing high on Friday.

Friday was day 35 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline. The dollar then should break below the daily cycle trend line before forming its DCL. The dollar is in its daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks formed a daily swing high on Thursday and then closed below the 10 day MA on Friday.

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Friday and have begun to turn the 10 DMA lower — indicating that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. Stocks did back test the previous daily cycle high on Friday. It is possible that if stocks form a swing low on Monday, then we would label Friday as a half cycle low. But if stocks deliver bearish follow through on Monday that would indicate the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 12 would set stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation which would herald the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The Miners Join The Party


 

The Junior Miners broke out of consolidation on Tuesday. The Miners joined the party on Wednesday.

The miners had been in a multi month consolidation since peaking in September. Over the past couple of weeks they were being squeezed by the declining 10 day MA and the rising 50 day MA. The Miners rallied on Tuesday then delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday by closing convincingly above the declining trend line. Closing above the declining trend line confirms that that day 55 was an extended DCL

After rallying strongly for the past three days the Miners got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA. They may need to crawl along the declining trend line in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The Miners are in a daily uptrend and closing above the declining rend line should trigger a trending move.

Junior Miner Breakout

The Junior Miners broke out of their triangle consolidation on Tuesday.

The Junior Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band in early December to begin a new daily uptrend. After peaking early January, the Junior Miners have been consolidating by printing lower highs and higher lows. On Tuesday, the Junior Miners broke convincingly out of consolidation and closed back above the upper daily cycle band. This renews its daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The 2/15/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
I believe that the dollar was declining into a daily cycle low but that was aborted on day 21 and the dollar has since shot higher.

I am not comfortable with labeling day 21 as the DCL since the 10 day MA did not turn lower. But there has been a change of character since the day 21 low. So while the dollar’s daily cycle count is not clear, what is clear is that the dollar is in its daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 

The rally out of the DCL has caused stocks to become stretched above the 10 day MA and causing stocks to consolidate this week, allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators which often precede a cycle decline. Therefore we need to be wary of that the daily cycle will form in a left translated manner. A swing high and close below the 10 day would signal the daily cycle decline. However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 2/08 20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed below the 10 day MA, the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA on day 21 to signal the daily cycle decline.

Any other asset that closes below the 3 moving averages listed above would surely continue the cycle decline. But due to the currency manipulation, the dollar regained all 3 moving averages on Monday and then broke convincingly out to new highs through Friday. The new high on Friday, day 26, locks in a right translate daily cycle formation which aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed their lowest point on day 40, placing them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday. The rally out of the DCL has caused stocks to become stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to consolidate in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Confirm New Daily Cycle

Stocks dropped 1.77% on Friday to print their lowest point following the day 33 peak.

Friday was day 40, placing stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks rallied on Monday and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA to confirm Friday as the daily cycle low. Stocks had been in a daily uptrend. Forming the swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

In the Mid-Week Update I plan to discuss how stocks are in the process of negating their weekly swing high and what that might mean.

The 2/01/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar formed a swing high on Thursday.

The dollar delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA, the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA — which confirms the daily cycle decline. Closing below all of those MA’s also signals something more sinister is afoot, which I cover in the Weekend Report. Friday was day 21, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 50 day MA would signal the DCL. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks formed a swing low off of the day 36 low. Since 36 days places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low, Tuesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

Stocks failed to close above the 10 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle and then broke lower on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 40, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 1/25/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed above the 200 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 16 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The new high on day 16 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. It also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.
 

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, day 33.

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and then closed below the daily cycle trend line on Friday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Notice that the previous daily cycle decline only lasted 3 days and the swing low formed above the upper daily cycle band. That is a signal that stocks have begun a melt up that is characterized by brief corrections. So it is likely for the DCL to arrive early next week.

While we will not be able to know how long stocks will continue in this melt up what we do know is that this usually ends in a crash. Stock are in a daily uptrend. Will will use a close below the upper daily cycle band as a signal of a larger correction.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Uptrend


 

The Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 41 to place them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Then they formed a swing low on and closed above the 10 day MA last week. The Miners delivered bullish follow through by closing above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday. This indicates that day 41 was the daily cycle low. Also, closing above the upper daily cycle band resumes the daily uptrend. The Miners will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Hunting for the Next Opportunity in Real Estate

Back in December we discussed how it appeared the the Real Estate ETF REZ was printing a not only a daily cycle low, but its intermediate and yearly cycle low as well. Last week REZ confirmed its intermediate cycle low.

REZ printed its lowest point on week 34, placing it late in its timing band for an ICL. A weekly swing low formed in December to signal a new intermediate cycle. Last week REX closed convincing close above both the declining weekly trend line and the 10 week MA to confirm the new intermediate cycle.

It also appears that the yearly cycle low formed as well. REZ formed its last YCL in December, 2018 off of support from the 50 week MA. The week 34 low also formed off of support from the 50 week MA. REZ then went on to close above the upper weekly cycle band last week. Closing above the upper weekly cycle band begins a new weekly uptrend and also signals that the YCL has been set.

REZ’s daily cycle has averaged 32 days over the past year. Since this is the first daly cycle of a new intermediate cycle, this should form as a right translated daily cycle. With Friday being only day 20, REZ could trend higher for the next 2 weeks before seeking out its DCL. Long positions could be entered/added to here, using the 10 day MA as the stop. Or wait on the next daily cycle low which should print sometime over the next 2 to 3 weeks.