Bullish Uptrend

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The daily equity cycle has been forming a mini triangle consolidation since peaking last Thursday which was day 19.

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Stocks are currently on day 24 for their daily cycle. That is 6 days shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA along with the bearish TSI divergence suggest that stocks are setting up for completing their daily cycle decline.

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So if stock break bearishly to complete their daily cycle decline the bigger picture is that stocks are in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. So even is stocks decline into a daily cycle low, they will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 7/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar breaking lower on Tuesday signaled that it is still declining into its yearly cycle low. The decline into the yearly cycle low is obscuring our daily cycle counts. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily downtrend. The dollar will continue in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Under the premise that a cycle cannot failed, then break to a new high without beginning a new daily cycle leads me to believe that day 39 hosted the DCL instead of June 5th. That would mean make Friday day 27, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. With the TSI at a level that has marked other DCL’s, once a swing low forms it will likely signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

After peaking on day 21, stocks formed a swing high and broke convincingly below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, tagging the 50 day MA. Thursday was day 29, placing stocks 1 day shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break of the declining trend line will confirm that day 29 hosted the daily cycle low. Stocks remain in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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Oil Bounce or Oil Bull?

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Oil printed its lowest point on week 18, following the week 7 peak. While 18 weeks is a bit early to expect to see an intermediate cycle low, the weekly swing low and bullish follow through indicate otherwise …

oil weekly

Oil consolidated in a narrow trading range over 11 weeks before declining into the week 18 low. Normally a break out of a narrow range yields a trending move. But the move lower was halted by the 50 week MA, which has also stopped the previous 2 intermediate cycle declines. This has me suspicious that the move lower was a fake out move. And now we see that the the weekly TSI has formed a bullish crossover after emerging from a level that has marked the previous yearly cycle low.

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If oil is still declining into its intermediate cycle low then it should be turned back at the declining weekly trend line. However a bullish break above the declining weekly trend line will signal that week 18 did host an early intermediate cycle low. We also need to recognize that oil established a weekly uptrend by closing above the upper weekly cycle band before it began its intermediate cycle decline. And oil remains in its weekly uptrend since it not close below the lower weekly cycle band as it declined into the week 18 low.

The 3/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar is getting late in its timing band to form a daily cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 19 peak. The dollar’s daily cycle has averaged 31 days since printing its yearly cycle low in May. Friday was day 30, placing the dollar in its timing band to a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break above 100.28 will form a daily swing low. Then a close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Since the declining trend line is over 1.6% away we will use a close above the declining 50 day MA as confirmation of a new daily cycle.

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The peak on day 19 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation and the the February DCL also hosted an intermediate cycle low. But by closing below the lower daily cycle band, that ends the daily uptrend and is a signal that the next daily cycle may form as a left translated cycle.

Stocks
stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 40, formed a swing high then broke below the (red-dashed) accelerated trend line to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 46. That was not enough to break below the (black) daily cycle trend line. But 46 days places stocks in the later stage of its timing band for a daily cycle low. There were other indicators that day 46 hosted the DCL including the TSI bearish zero line crossover prior to day 46 and the bullish TSI zero line crossover following day 46. Stocks also closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Wednesday providing more confirmation that Day 46 hosted the DCL.

Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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Potential Inflection Points

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The dollar has been in a daily downtrend that has been characterized by peaks printing below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar reached a potential inflection point on Tuesday.

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Tuesday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Left translated daily cycles typically roll over by day 8. The dollar is also up against resistance from the 50 day MA. A swing high here should send the dollar into its daily cycle decline.

Bonds also appear to be at an inflection point.

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Bonds closed above the upper daily cycle band on day 9 trying to re-establish its daily uptrend. It has since formed a swing high and trended lower. Bonds did print a reversal off of the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday. Closing below the 10 day MA and forming a bearish zero line crossover on the TSI are signals that the daily cycle is in decline. Bonds will need to form a swing low here to avoid breaking below the daily cycle trend line, which would confirm the daily cycle decline.

Stocks Deliver Bullish Follow Through

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Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday to confirm that Friday hosted the daily cycle low.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 2 for the daily equity cycle and stocks closed solidly above the accelerated declining trend line. Stocks also delivered a bullish zero line crossover on the True Strength Indicator. While not all TSI bullish zero line crossovers mark a daily cycle low, all DCL’s are accompanied by a TSI bullish zero line crossover. If stocks manage to close above the upper daily cycle band that will indicate an end of the daily downtrend.

The Miners remain in a daily downtrend.

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Tuesday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and a close above both the 10 day and 200 day MA would signal that the Miners have printed a daily cycle low. Then a close above the upper daily cycle band would signal an end to the daily downtrend.

The 11/04/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 33, formed a swing high, and then lost the 10 day MA on the previous Friday. Tuesday the dollar was firmly rejected by the 10 day moving average and closed below the upper daily cycle band to signal the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 41 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar should break below the daily cycle trend line before completing its daily cycle decline. The dollar is still in a daily uptrend. A close below the lower daily cycle band would indicate an end of the daily uptrend.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band the previous Friday and continued lower this week.

Friday was day 39 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break of the accelerated (blue) declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its daily downtrend until they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The TSI has breached the level that has marked other cycle lows.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Gold’s Weak Daily Cycle

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Gold printed its lowest point on October 7th, following the day 3 peak and has since drifted sideways.

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While gold has regained the 10 day MA and delivered a bullish zero line crossover on the daily TSI gold has still yet to confirm that it is in a new daily cycle. And the reason for the weak daily cycle is largely due to the rallying dollar. The dollar has been rallying for the past 46 days and it is remarkable that gold managed any kind of rally at all.

So assuming that October 7th was the daily cycle low, that would make Monday day 11. Which means that gold will be entering the later stages of this daily cycle. And with each passing day that gold does not rally will begin to shift the odds towards a left translated daily cycle formation.

Another factor hampering gold is the resistance from the declining 200 week MA.

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After peaking on week 5, gold broke below the 200 week MA on the way to printing its lowest point on week 18. The past 3 weeks gold has been contained by the declining 200 week MA and appears to be forming a mini bear flag. Since 18 weeks is on the early end of gold’s timing band for printing an intermediate low, we could easily see gold break lower here.

If gold does break bearishly out of the mini bear flag then I think that it would be likely for gold to break below the previous intermediate low of 1201.50 which would form a failed weekly cycle.

Miner Sale

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Every year the Miners go on sale as they dip into their yearly cycle low.

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The yearly Miner cycle peaked in August, which was month 7. They have since formed a monthly swing high and broke below the monthly trend line which signals the yearly cycle decline.

This is week 19 for the intermediate Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a weekly cycle low.

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The Miners are down over 26% off of their August 12th highs. Tuesday was day 22 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Over the past year, which includes the previous yearly cycle low, most daily cycles ran at 22 days or less.

So the Miners are in their timing band to form a daily, intermediate and yearly cycle low. And there is a bullish TSI divergence developing similar to the one that formed at the last yearly cycle low. Over the next week I expect the Miners to print their daily, weekly, & yearly cycle low. When that happens that will be the bargain of the year.

The 8/05/16 Weekend Report Preview

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 27. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar has:
* Formed a swing low in the timing band for a daily cycle low – check
* Delivered a bullish TSI Crossover – check

I think that it is likely that the dollar has formed a daily cycle low. But the dollar still needs to the follow to confirm a new daily cycle:

* Regain the 10 day MA – no check
* Deliver a Bullish TSI Zero Line Crossover – no check
* Break above the declining trend line – no check

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks had been consolidating for the past 3 weeks since emerging from its 6/27 intermediate cycle low. Stocks finally broke lower on Tuesday, day 26. With stocks nearing their timing band for a daily cycle low, any bearish follow through would signal the daily cycle decline.

But stocks never delivered any bearish follow through. Then on Friday stocks broke higher, printing a new daily cycle high. That makes Tuesday the half-cycle low which will allow us to draw a daily cycle trend line. Stocks are in a daily uptrend & will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report