The 3/10/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Friday’s break below the daily cycle trend line confirms that the dollar is in a daily cycle decline.

The dollar peaked on day 19, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also managed to close above the upper daily cycle band during this daily cycle. That ended the daily downtrend and indicated that February hosted an intermediate cycle low. Friday was day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band

Stocks
stocks

The daily cycle peaked on day 40, locking in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, following the day 40 peak. The swing low on Friday indicates a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Normally we would like to see break below the daily cycle trend line before looking for a daily cycle low. But this daily cycle is extremely right translated and it did not happen. Setting aside the trend line break there are other signals that help to determine a daily cycle low. Timing band is one of the criteria. Also normally present in a daily cycle decline is the True Strength Indicator delivering a bearish zero line crossover also along with the formation a weekly swing.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Bearish Dollar Signals

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In the Weekend Report we looked at how the dollar’s weekly cycle set-up has us expecting a left translated daily cycle formation. Today I want to point out some bearish dollar signals

1 $$$ Daily

First off I want to point out that the dollar has established a daily downtrend. It will remain in a downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Second, the True Strength Indicator has reached a level that has previously seen the dollar’s cycle roll over.

The next signal looks at the money flow. For this we need to switch to the ETF UUP

2 $$$ daily

There has been a huge bearish money flow as the dollar is in the process of printing a lower high.

3 $$$ daily

The was a similar huge bearish money flow the last time the dollar printed a lower high before its declining into its yearly cycle low.

And the dollar is in its timing band to seek out its yearly cycle low…

Potential Equity Correction Knocking on the Door

knock

Thursday was day 28 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks just two days shy of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low.
spx

Some bearish signs are beginning to develop. There is a bearish crossover on the True Strength Indicator. Also, a daily swing high formed on Wednesday, Even though stocks closed higher on Thursday, they did not negate the swing high, leaving it in play. A break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the waters …

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While gold formed a swing low on Tuesday, there was no confirmation of a new daily cycle …

gld swing

Since gold was late in its timing band for a daily cycle low, it looked like an opportunity to “get back into the water” …

gld daily

But then gold broke lower on Wednesday. Wednesday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle. With gold being this late in its daily cycle, it should bottom any day.

gld divergence am

Gold printed its last yearly cycle low on 12/03/15. Gold is in its timing band for another yearly cycle low. Similar to last year there are divergences developing on the True Strength Indicator and the Money Flow Index. Which signals that once the daily cycle low is in it will most likely mark yearly cycle low as well.

Looking at the Dollar

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The dollar formed a swing high on Monday.

1 $$$ swing

Monday was day 11 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar is still 7 days shy of entering its timing band to seek a daily cycle low. However …

2 $$$ long TSI

The True Strength Indicator has already exceed the level that has marked previous cycle highs. And the TSI is beginning to rollover. Now some bearish follow through should end the dollar into a daily cycle decline.

3 $$$ weekly

The intermediate cycle is either on week 29 or week 14. If week 29 is the correct count then once the dollar rolls over it should enter an intermediate cycle decline.

But if the dollar is on week 14, that would place the dollar 4 weeks shy of its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Currently the daily cycle high printed on day 10. A peak on day 10 does shift the likelihood towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Allowing for 10 – 15 days for the dollar to print a daily cycle low would take the weekly cycle out to weeks 16 or 17. Then one more failed daily cycle would take the weekly cycle count out to weeks 21 – 24, which is right in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

Under a week 14 scenario the dollar potentially can trend lower 7 out of the next 9 weeks.

The 11/18/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued higher this week, printing a higher high on Friday.

Friday was day 10 for the daily dollar cycle. A new high on day 10 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher this week, printing a higher high on Friday. Stocks have begun to close above the upper daily cycle band to establish a new daily uptrend

Friday was day 10 for the daily equity cycle. The True Strength Indicator is beginning to roll over. This suggests that stocks may need to cool off and perhaps decline into a half cycle low, which could potentially see stocks back test the declining trend line.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Deliver Bullish Follow Through

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Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday to confirm that Friday hosted the daily cycle low.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 2 for the daily equity cycle and stocks closed solidly above the accelerated declining trend line. Stocks also delivered a bullish zero line crossover on the True Strength Indicator. While not all TSI bullish zero line crossovers mark a daily cycle low, all DCL’s are accompanied by a TSI bullish zero line crossover. If stocks manage to close above the upper daily cycle band that will indicate an end of the daily downtrend.

The Miners remain in a daily downtrend.

gdx

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and a close above both the 10 day and 200 day MA would signal that the Miners have printed a daily cycle low. Then a close above the upper daily cycle band would signal an end to the daily downtrend.

Miner Recovery

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The Miners printed their highest point on Wednesday, day 16, breaking above the 50 day MA. However, the Miners could not hang onto those gains and closed down 1.47% on Wednesday. The Miners recovered that loss on Thursday.

gdx daily

Thursday was day 17 for the daily Miner cycle. While the Miners delivered the highest close for the current daily cycle we need to keep in mind that day 17 places the Miners 1 day shy of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low. At this point we do not know if the Miners are ready to roll over into a daily cycle decline. But a daily swing high and close below the 10 day MA will deliver good odds that the daily cycle decline has started.

There are two things to keep in mind: there is a bearish divergence developing on the daily True Strength Indicator. And the Miners topped Thursday’s Selling on Strength list.

But the Miners appear to have left behind an intermediate cycle low in early October. So a daily cycle decline would be a good opportunity to buy the dip.

gdx weekly

There are four reasons that signal an intermediate cycle low has been set.

1) A weekly swing low formed off of the lowest point, which was week 20. That places the Miners in the timing band for an ICL
2) The Miners breached the declining weekly trend line.
3) There is a bullish crossover on the weekly TSI.
4) The daily cycle looks to be forming as a right translated cycle.

All of this points to week 20 hosted the intermediate cycle low.

Unless the impending daily cycle decline causes the Miners to lose the 200 week MA, then it is pretty good odds that the Miners are on week 3 of the new intermediate cycle.

The 11/03/16 Morning Report

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After peaking on week 7 stocks formed a weekly swing high and began their intermediate cycle decline. Once the weekly decline is complete it will represent one of the best 2 buying opportunities of the year.

1 weekly spx

This is week 18 for the intermediate equity cycle and stocks have entered their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So there is the potential that once a new daily cycle begins, it will also signal a new weekly cycle.

Please note that the weekly True Strength Indicator is below the zero line and trending lower while RSI is oversold.

spx weekly buy

When the weekly RSI crosses back above the the 20 line and is accompanied by a bullish zero line crossover on the weekly TSI, this will confirm a new intermediate cycle.

Golden Reminder

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I have received some emails today that expressed a concern that gold’s daily cycle may roll over and print a failed daily cycle. Let’s take a look.

gld

Wednesday, Gold formed a swing low off the 10/07 low and recovered the 200 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. So while gold did close lower today, gold still managed to print a higher high and close above the 200 day MA. So unless gold breaks below the 10/07 low of 1243.20 we need to be patient.

There are 2 bullish observations:

gld traction

The first is that gold has been resisting a strong dollar rally. The second is this is beginning to look a lot like the previous intermediate cycle low. The True Strength Indicator reached the same level as the last intermediate low and has now delivered a bullish zero line crossover. Also the previous intermediate low needed a few days before getting some traction. And gold finally found some traction once the dollar rolled over.

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Thursday was day 30 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar is getting late in its timing band to seek out its daily cycle low. At this late stage, a swing high should mark the daily cycle peak and send the dollar into a daily cycle decline.

And the dollar dropping into a daily cycle decline should send gold higher.

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