Miner Progress

The Miners closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 42, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal that day 42 was the daily cycle low. The Miners will need to break above the declining trend line and the 200 day MA in order for a trending move to develop. In the Weekend Report I will discuss what this means in terms of the longer, intermediate cycle.

Bullish Traction

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 54, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Closing above the 10 day MA indicates that day 54 was the DCL. A close above the lower trend line will have us label day 54 as the DCL which should allow stocks to start to gain some bullish traction.

Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday,d ay 43, placing them late in their timing band for a DCL. Thursday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. Stocks should close above the 10 day MA and then go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of their DCL.

I do have a concern over how RSI 05 embedded in oversold during this daily cycle decline. I plan to discuss this further in the Weekend Report.

Miner Support

The Miners are finding support at the 35 level this morning.

The above is a 2 hour chart showing the Miners in the premarket and they appear to be finding some support at the 35 level.

The bigger picture shows us that at 29 days, the Miners are in their timing band for a DCL.   A swing low and a break above the declining trend line would signal the new daily cycle. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 36, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday and closed above both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle. Stocks should go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of their DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

Not Convinced

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 29, placing them in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. While stocks formed a swing low on Thursday, I am not convinced that the daily cycle low has formed.

Some of the things that I look for to mark the daily cycle low include:

  • Timing Band
  • 7-15 day correction
  • 10 day MA turning lower
  • RSI 05 oversold
  • Bollinger Band Crash

While stocks are in the early part of their timing band for a DCL, the other criteria has not been met. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A break above the declining trend line will signal a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 29 as the DCL.

Stocks Deliver A Bearish Trend Line Break

Stocks closed below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday.

We discussed on Monday how stocks formed a swing low to trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stocks negated that buy signal on Tuesday by forming a swing high and closing below the daily cycle trend line. Tuesday was day 27, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the 200 day MA that will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

The rally out of the late February DCL saw stocks get stretched above the 10 day MA last Tuesday. Stocks retraced to backtest the 200 MA on Friday, forming a bullish reversal. Stocks followed that by forming a swing low on Monday. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal. We will use Friday’s pivot to construct the daily cycle trend line.

Oil Delivers Bearish Follow Through

On Monday we discussed how oil gave a bearish signal. Oil delivered bearish follow through on Thursday.

Oil was rejected by the converging declining trend line and the 10 day MA on Thursday. Notice that prior to the day 72 DCL, oil had been in an intermediate cycle advance characterized by RSI 05 embedding in overbought and reversing quickly if oversold. That has changed. RSI 05 did not embed in overbought as oil rallied out of the day 72 DCL. With a peak on day 5, oil is setting up for a left translated daily cycle formation which indicates that oil is starting its intermediate cycle decline. If RSI 05 embeds in oversold that will signal that oil has entered its declining phase of its intermediate cycle.

The 3/26/22 Weekend Report Preview

Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 23, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a DCL.

A break above the declining trend line will have us label day 23 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. A close back above the declining trend line will signal a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a daily cycle band buy signal.

tocks

Stocks recovered the 200 day MA on Tuesday then went on to print a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 21 for the daily cycle. The new high on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.