The 8/18/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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We would like to see a close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL but so far the rally out of the day 50 low has been weak.

Friday was day 12 of the new daily cycle. A daily cycle trend line has formed and the dollar has already printed a swing high off the day 10 peak. A break below the daily cycle trend line would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a punishing daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a lower low on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s narrow range day does ease the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2420.69 forms a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

However stocks formed a weekly swing high this week. Stocks maybe pulled lower by the gravitational pull of the impending ICL. A failed daily cycle would confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below their previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 will form a failed daily cycle. I discuss this in greater detail in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Break Lower

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When stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday it looked as if day 29 hosted an early DCL. Then stocks broke lower on Thursday.

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Even though stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday, breaking lower on Thursday prevented the 10 day MA from turning up higher, which would have been a confirmation that day 29 hosted the DCL. Instead stocks set the declining trend line on Wednesday. This makes Thursday day 34 for the daily equity cycle placing stocks in their timing band for their daily cycle low.

Thursday’s drop caused stocks to close below the lower daily cycle band. That signals not only are stocks extending their daily cycle decline but they have also entered their intimidate cycle decline. A failed daily cycle confirms that stocks are declining into their intimidate cycle low. So even though a peak on day 27 sets up a potential right translated cycle formation, stocks could break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 in oder to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. But since the weekly cycle is very stretched at 41 weeks, any intermediate cycle decline would likely be short lived.

Possible Daily Cycle Low for Oil

Oil printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

oil

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. Oil did not form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil finally broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point on Tuesday. At 37 days, that places oil well within its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal also eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 47.92 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to entering its daily cycle decline, which indicates that oil is in a daily uptrend. If oil forms a daily cycle low above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

Daily Cycle Low

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Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

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Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 29. After a narrow range day on Friday stocks rallied enough on Monday to recover all of Thursday’s drop. That and the fact that stocks also formed a daily swing low convinces me that the daily cycle low has been set. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will confirm the new daily cycle.

Oil confirmed its daily cycle decline on Monday.

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The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. It did not manage to form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm that oil is in its daily cycle decline. Monday was day 36, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. If a swing low forms now, it has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. If the daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

The 8/04/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The decline into the YCL is stretching the daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. At this point we need to see a close above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks peaked on day 19 and has since been forming a mini triangle consolidation.

1) Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Friday.
2) A break above 2484.04 signals that day 19 was the half cycle low.
3) Stocks are clearly in a daily uptrend.
4) Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Steel Update

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Steel appears to be on the way to confirming a new daily cycle.

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The daily steel cycle peaked last week on day 24. It then formed a swing high and began its daily cycle decline. Steel printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 28. Steel formed a swing low on Thursday. Steel is delivering a clear and convincing break above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm the new daily cycle. It also appears that steel will close above the upper daily cycle band. Steel is currently in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The 7/28/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued lower this week printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 46.

At 46 days the dollar is very deep in its timing band for a DCL so once a swing low forms it has good odds of marking the DCL. A break above 93.95 forms a swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 19. A new high on day 19 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation.

The daily oscillators have turned bearish signaling an impending daily cycle decline. A break below the day 19 high of 2459.93 would form a daily swing high to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. However, Friday’s 413 million Buying on Strength point to stocks continuing higher. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 7/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar continued lower this week, printing a lower low on Friday.

Friday was day 42, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break above the declining 10 day MA should signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline.

If stocks deliver bearish follow through to Friday’s swing high that would make day 14 the cycle peak. A peak on day 14 favors a left translated cycle formation. With the intermediate cycle on week 37, a left translated cycle would likely lead to the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks would need to break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 to form a failed daily cycle. However, stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Left Translated Bond Cycle

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The intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 15 and then formed a weekly swing high that saw bonds break below the weekly trend line to confirm that bonds began their intermediate cycle decline.

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The rally over the past 2 weeks has been enough for bonds to form a weekly swing low. A weekly swing low could indicate a new intermediate cycle but that would mean that bonds printed a 16 week intermediate cycle. Since the intermediate bond cycle normally runs 18 – 26 weeks, I am suspicious that this 2 week rally in bonds may only be a counter trend rally that will set up the declining weekly trend line.

In order for that to happen then the current daily cycle will need to form as a left translated daily cycle.

tlt_daily

Thursday was day 9 for the daily bond cycle. The new high on day 9 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. Bonds would need to have to roll over immediately in order to maintain the possibility of a left translated cycle formation.

Bonds did print an exhaustion candle on Thursday. A swing high here would signal that bonds were beginning their daily cycle decline. Bonds did not close above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. Since bonds began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 19 low means that bonds had begun a daily downtrend. So if bonds were to form a swing high then they will remain in their daily downtrend which would likely result in a left translated cycle formation.

Miner Update

0 miner surprise

The Miners broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

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I have received some emails asking if the Miners have also began a new intermediate cycle. There is no evidence on the daily chart to suggest that the Miners are in a new intermediate cycle. In fact, the Miners are currently in a daily downtrend, which is characterized by lows forming below the lower daily cycle band and highs forming below the upper daily cycle band. The Miners will need to close above the upper daily cycle band to signal a new intermediate cycle.

So while there is no evidence pointing to the Miners being in a new intermediate cycle, there is a weekly swing low that has formed which does open the possibility that the intermediate low has printed.

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The Miners formed a weekly swing low on Monday. Our weekly cycle count places the Miners on week 11, which is too early for an intermediate cycle low. Only a close above the declining 50 week MA would change that view.

The Selling on Strength numbers also support that the Miners are still seeking out their intermediate cycle low.

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Monday was day 5 for the new Miner cycle. Four of the past five days were bullish for the Miners. However, four of the past five days saw the Miners print large Selling on Strength numbers. And these large SOS numbers are the type of numbers associated with an intermediate decline.