A Miner Downtrend

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing high on Monday.

Monday’s swing high broke below the daily cycle trend line to close below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. This signals that the daily cycle is now in decline.

Monday was day 10 for the daily Miner cycle. A peak on day 9 can often result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.91 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 59 DCL. This began their daily downtrend. Since the Miners failed to close above the upper daily cycle band before forming their daily swing high, they remain in their daily downtrend. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

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Beware Bonds

Bonds finally appear to have confirmed a new daily cycle.

Bonds printed their lowest point last Friday. That was day 12, which is usually too early for a daily cycle low. However bonds have now:
* Broke above the declining trend line
* Delivered a bullish zero line crossover on the TSI
* Closed above the lower daily cycle band
* Closed above the 10 day MA
* Managed to turn the 10 day MA higher.

All of which convinces me that day 12 hosted the DCL.

The bigger picture is that bonds are in their timing band for a yearly cycle low and are in an interemdiate cycle decline.

Bonds have formed a monthly swing high in October. A monthly swing high is required for the yearly cycle decline. Bonds will need to deliver some bearish follow through to confirm that the yearly cycle is in decline.

Bonds are already in a daily downtrend. If the yearly cycle decline has begun then I suspect that we will see bonds backtest the 50 day MA and then rollover into another left translated daily failed cycle in order to complete the yearly cycle decline.

Equity Timing Band

Tuesday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low.

Stocks printed their daily cycle high last Thursday, day 31, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But stocks have since closed lower for 2 straight days, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 2450.02 forms a swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks are in a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. As long as stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band, then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. And under that scenario, the dip should be bought.

The transports have already confirmed their daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 31 for the transports daily cycle. That places them in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The transports have already formed a swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that they have entered their daily cycle decline. The transports have also been in a daily uptrend. They will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Oil Confirms Daily Cycle Decline

On Thursday we discussed how the bearish reversal was setting oil up for a decline into its daily cycle low. On Monday oil confirmed that it has begun its daily cycle decline.

Oil formed a swing high on Monday that closed convincingly below the 10 day MA. Oil also pierced the daily cycle trend line. Both of these signals indicate that oil has begun its daily cycle decline. With Monday being only day 21 that will allow enough time for oil to drop further so as to turn the 10 day MA lower.

Oil still managed to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that oil is in a daily uptrend. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Oil Slips

Oil formed a bearish reversal on Thursday.

Thursday was day 19 for the daily oil cycle. The new high on day 19 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. However, the bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 51.22 forms a swing high and then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil is in a daily uptrend and will remain so until it closes below the lower daily cycle band. A daily low forming above the lower daily cycle band would be a buy signal.

Bullish Backtest

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

If stocks can deliver some bullish follow through then we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

Monday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks backtested the previous intermediate cycle top on Monday. If stocks deliver any bullish follow through that would indicate a successful backtest allowing us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that there are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Close, But No Cigar

The Miners came close to forming a daily swing low on Friday.

Close, but no cigar …

The Miners rallied on Friday to gain 1.12% on the day. While the Miners failed to form a daily swing low, they did regain the 50 day MA and close above the lower daily cycle band delivering the first signals that day 52 hosted the daily cycle low.

So a swing low has good odds of forming the daily cycle low, which is a buying signal. But there are some signals developing that indicate that the Miners have begun an intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band Thursday and Friday, which signals the start of the intermediate cycle decline. On the weekly chart we can see that the Miners have formed a weekly swing high and delivered a break below the weekly trend line. Both of which indicate that the Miners are in an intermediate cycle decline. And this is before the dollar beings to rally out of its intermediate cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on week 31, placing it deep in its timing band for an ICL. So while a new daily dollar cycle has begun, the dollar still needs to form a weekly swing low and break above the declining weekly trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle. And if the dollar’s intermediate rally begins to develop some traction, that will surely send the Miners lower.

The 9/22/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar finally broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL.

The dollar’s highest point so far was Wednesday, day 8. If the dollar fails to break above Wednesday’s high of 92.50 then it will form another left translated daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday, day 21. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation and provides more evidence that August 21st hosted the ICL.

After printing a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, stocks drifted lower into Friday. But Friday’s bullish closed allowed stocks to remain above the 10 day MA. If a swing low forms then that would indicate that Thursday was a very mild half cycle low. If stocks continue lower and break below Wednesdays’ low of 2496.67 that will form a swing high to indicate the daily cycle decline. However, stocks remain locked in a daily uptrend so any dip is a buying opportunity. Stocks will continue it its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bonds Beginning to Become Bearish

The daily bond cycle peaked on day 29. A swing high formed two days later. Then bonds broke below the daily cycle trend line on day 32 to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Bonds formed a swing low last Thursday off the day 33 candle. Since 33 days places bonds deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low that swing low had good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

However, bonds broke lower.

Bonds delivered a bearish signal last week when they failed to follow through on a swing low deep in the timing band for a daily cycle low. Bonds delivered another bearish signal on Tuesday by closing below the lower daily cycle band. That ends the daily uptrend and indicates that bonds have begun their intermediate cycle decline.

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that bonds formed a weekly swing high last week. Bonds are delivering bearish follow through this week. Bonds also broke below the weekly trend line which is another signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

A failed daily cycle normally ushers in the intermediate cycle low. Since the current daily cycle peaked on day 29, that locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Bonds should begin a new daily cycle any day. Bonds will need for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle in order to complete the intermediate bond decline.