The 2/22/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar formed a daily swing high on Friday.

Friday was day 35 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline. The dollar then should break below the daily cycle trend line before forming its DCL. The dollar is in its daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks formed a daily swing high on Thursday and then closed below the 10 day MA on Friday.

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Friday and have begun to turn the 10 DMA lower — indicating that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. Stocks did back test the previous daily cycle high on Friday. It is possible that if stocks form a swing low on Monday, then we would label Friday as a half cycle low. But if stocks deliver bearish follow through on Monday that would indicate the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 12 would set stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation which would herald the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The Miners Join The Party


 

The Junior Miners broke out of consolidation on Tuesday. The Miners joined the party on Wednesday.

The miners had been in a multi month consolidation since peaking in September. Over the past couple of weeks they were being squeezed by the declining 10 day MA and the rising 50 day MA. The Miners rallied on Tuesday then delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday by closing convincingly above the declining trend line. Closing above the declining trend line confirms that that day 55 was an extended DCL

After rallying strongly for the past three days the Miners got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA. They may need to crawl along the declining trend line in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The Miners are in a daily uptrend and closing above the declining rend line should trigger a trending move.

Canary In The Coal Mine

China, the world’s second largest economy, is feeling the economic impact of the Coronavirus.

Chain’s coal consumption usually trends lower into the Chinese New Year, but then recovers. What is happening is that their daily coal consumption has flatlined, underscoring the impact of the Coronavirus.

Massive Manufacturing Disruptions Due to Coronavirus Include iPhone

About 80% of world goods trade by volume is carried by sea and China is home to seven of the world’s 10 busiest container ports, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Nearby Singapore and South Korea each have a mega port too.

“A closure of the world’s manufacturing hub impacts container shipping at large, as it is a vital facilitator of the intra-Asian and global supply chains,” said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. “This will affect many industries and limit demand for containerized goods transport,” Sand told CNN Business.

Alibaba Warns Virus Having Broad Impact on Chinese Economy

“Alibaba, the first major Chinese technology corporation to report results since the epidemic emerged in January, said the virus is undermining production in the economy because many workers can’t get to or perform their jobs. It has also changed buying patterns with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, including travel and restaurants.” Wyndham has closed 70 percent of their hotels in China.

And more cities are being locked down.

China Locks Down Hangzhou, Mega-City Far From Epicentre of Coronavirus

HANGZHOU: Millions more people have been ordered to stay indoors as China battles to curb the spread of a new virus that authorities said on Wednesday (Feb 5) has already killed 500 people.

Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang province and home to Alibaba Group, recorded an estimated population of almost 10 million by the end of 2018, according to a metro newspaper owned by Hangzhou Daily Press Group.

Yet stocks are at all-time highs.

Stocks are behaving as if week 17 hosted the ICL. 17 weeks would be early for an ICL. But stocks did form a weekly swing high, break the weekly trend line and close below the 10 week MA on week 17. With the Fed is engaging in Repo operations and central banks are flooding the market with liquidity, in part, to lessen the impact of the Coronavirus — that may be all of the correction that we will see. But the longer it takes to bring the Coronavirus under control, the more severe the reaction will be once the economic effect starts to get priced in. There already are bearish divergences developing on the weekly oscillators, which often precede a cycle top. If stocks close below the 3330.00 break out level that should send stocks into their intermediate cycle decline.

The 2/08 20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed below the 10 day MA, the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA on day 21 to signal the daily cycle decline.

Any other asset that closes below the 3 moving averages listed above would surely continue the cycle decline. But due to the currency manipulation, the dollar regained all 3 moving averages on Monday and then broke convincingly out to new highs through Friday. The new high on Friday, day 26, locks in a right translate daily cycle formation which aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed their lowest point on day 40, placing them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday. The rally out of the DCL has caused stocks to become stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to consolidate in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Confirm New Daily Cycle

Stocks dropped 1.77% on Friday to print their lowest point following the day 33 peak.

Friday was day 40, placing stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks rallied on Monday and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA to confirm Friday as the daily cycle low. Stocks had been in a daily uptrend. Forming the swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

In the Mid-Week Update I plan to discuss how stocks are in the process of negating their weekly swing high and what that might mean.

Miner Traction

The Miners have been consolidating since the big summer rally.

Since December the Miners have been printing lower highs and higher lows. These triangle consolidations can obscure our daily cycle counts. A break below the (red) daily cycle trend line should send the Miners to seek out their daily cycle low. But a break above the upper (blue) stem should allow for the Miners to start to get some traction.

Bearish Divergence

Stocks broke out again to new highs on Monday.

Monday was day 27 for the daily cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the the money flow and oscillators which often precede a cycle decline. A break of the daily cycle trend line will signal of the daily cycle decline.

Miner Daily Cycle Decline


The Miners

 
The Miners broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday.

The Miners delivered bearish follow through on Thursday, which was day 38, placing them late their timing band for a daily cycle low.  The Miners should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to form its pending daily cycle low. The peak on day 34 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with the Miners being in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Resilience

When we looked at the Miners on Monday we noted that they late in their timing band band for a daily cycle low and that the oscillators had started to diverge. The Miners appeared to be ready to begin their daily cycle decline. So with the dollar rallying on Tuesday the Miners demonstrated bullish resilience.

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on last week on day 12, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday and rallied again on Tuesday. Since the dollar’s daily cycle low can stretch to 26 – 30 days, Tuesday’s rally may just be setting up the declining trend line for the dollar as it declines into the pending daily cycle low.

And I think that is what the Miners were sniffing out on Tuesday.

The Miners have been consolidating the since becoming stretched above the 10 day MA as a result of rallying strongly into the year’s end. This allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. And if the dollar does compete its daily cycle decline that should ignite the Miners to break bullishly out of consolidation.

The 1/04/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday to form a failed daily cycle.

The dollar then delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday. The peak on day 6 sets the dollar up for a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar did manage to rally on Thursday and test the 10 day MA on Friday. Tuesday was only day 11, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. Therefore the dollar should be rejected by the 10 day MA and continue its daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend.  It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 20, to indicate a right translated daily cycle formation.

This was a volatile week for stocks. Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report