The 3/24/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar printed it lowest point on Wednesday following the day 19 peak. That was day 33, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The daily swing low that formed on Friday has good odds of marking the DCL. A close above the 10 day MA would signal a new daily cycle. It would also mean that the dollar did not break below the previous low of 99.19 to form a failed daily cycle. If day 33 is the DCL then the dollar would have formed a right translated daily cycle. A right translated daily cycle formation would indicate that the February DCL did host the intermediate cycle low. However, a break below the previous DCL of 99.19 will negate the right translated cycle formation. It will also signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a lower low on Friday.

At day 57, that places stocks deep in in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low would signal a new daily cycle. I still would like to see a clear and convincing break of the (black) daily cycle trend line before being satisfied that the daily cycle low is in. However if stocks go on to rally from here and break above the declining (blue) trend line then that would signal that Friday hosted the daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Daily Equity Cycle Update

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Stocks broke convincingly below the 10 day MA on Tuesday which signaled that stocks were extending their daily cycle decline.

The reasons we discussed on Tuesday that stocks ere extending their daily cycle decline included:
1) The peak on day 40 locks in a right translated cycle.
2) No trend line break.
3) No real panic (until Tuesday)

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Stocks printed a lower low on Wednesday and has formed a daily swing low on Thursday. While stocks are getting late in their timing band for a daily cycle low, I am not convinced that the swing low that formed on Thursday completes the daily cycle decline. I still would like to see a clear and convincing break of the (black) daily cycle trend line before being satisfied that the daily cycle low is in. However if stocks go on to rally from here and break above the declining (blue dashed) trend line then that would signal that Wednesday hosted the daily cycle low.

3 Reasons Why …

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I have received some (many) emails asking me if today’s action in stocks signals a failed daily cycle. Here are the 3 reasons why I think that Stocks are now heading into their final daily cycle decline.

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1) The peak on day 40 locks in a right translated cycle.
2) No trend line break.
3) No real panic (until Tuesday)

The peak on day 40 locked in a right translated daily cycle formation. Right translated daily cycles generally go on to print a higher high, even if the following cycle turns out to be a failed daily cycle. Since stocks did not break out to a new high that is the first signal that stocks are still declining into their daily cycle low.

One of the tools that we use to help confirm the cycle decline is a trend line break. While stocks broke below the accelerated (red-dashed) trend line to signal the start of the daily cycle decline they did not break below the (black) daily cycle trend line. Now that that stocks are making their final decline into their daily cycle low they will likely break below the (black) trend line before completing their daily cycle decline.

As stocks move into a cycle low there is usually some panic selling as the cycle low approaches. In retrospect it does not seem that day 46 achieved any panic selling as opposed to the selling on Tuesday.

So for those reasons I think that Tuesday was day 54 for the daily equity cycle. Which places stocks late in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. I think that once the (black) tend line is breached, a swing low should mark the daily cycle low. Then a break above the declining (dashed) trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The 3/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar is getting late in its timing band to form a daily cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 19 peak. The dollar’s daily cycle has averaged 31 days since printing its yearly cycle low in May. Friday was day 30, placing the dollar in its timing band to a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break above 100.28 will form a daily swing low. Then a close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Since the declining trend line is over 1.6% away we will use a close above the declining 50 day MA as confirmation of a new daily cycle.

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The peak on day 19 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation and the the February DCL also hosted an intermediate cycle low. But by closing below the lower daily cycle band, that ends the daily uptrend and is a signal that the next daily cycle may form as a left translated cycle.

Stocks
stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 40, formed a swing high then broke below the (red-dashed) accelerated trend line to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 46. That was not enough to break below the (black) daily cycle trend line. But 46 days places stocks in the later stage of its timing band for a daily cycle low. There were other indicators that day 46 hosted the DCL including the TSI bearish zero line crossover prior to day 46 and the bullish TSI zero line crossover following day 46. Stocks also closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Wednesday providing more confirmation that Day 46 hosted the DCL.

Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Gold Confirms New Daily Cycle

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Gold printed its lowest point last Friday, day 29, following the day 20 peak. While gold formed a swing low on Monday, it did not confirm a new daily cycle until Thursday.

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Gold did break higher on Wednesday, gaining over 2% and breaching the declining trend line. Gold delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by breaking higher to close above both the declining trend line and the 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle.

Gold began to close below the lower daily cycle band as it was seeking out its daily cycle low. That ended the daily uptrend and began a daily downtrend. Thursday’s rally fell short of breaking above the upper daily cycle band. If gold is turned lower here and closes back below the lower daily cycle band then gold will have established a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band would end the daily downtrend and signal that gold is re-establishing its daily uptrend.

Miner Conundrum

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The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday after peaking back in February. While the daily cycle count for Miners has become obscured, either count places Thursday in the timing band or very late in the timing band for a daily cycle low.

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The Miners did form a swing low on Friday. Our preferred tool for confirming a new daily cycle is a trend line break. But with the declining trend line over 14% above price we then look for a close above the 10 day MA, which marginally occurred on Monday. Had the rally out of Thursday’s low been more robust then I would be inclined to label it as a DCL. I suspect that the Miners will print one more lower low in order to form its impending daily cycle low.

And we have the dollar rallying out of a low to thank for this Miner conundrum.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 19 and then began its daily cycle decline. The dollar found support at the 50 day MA and printed a swing low on Tuesday. Monday was day 26, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close above the declining trend line will confirm Monday as the DCL.

Gold Facing Strong Headwinds

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The dollar printed a bullish reversal off of the support of the 50 day MA on Monday.

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Monday was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 101.25 will form a swing low. Then a break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar has established a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms then the dollar would have managed to avoid closing below the lower daily cycle band during its daily cycle decline. Which means that the dollar would remain in a daily uptrend.

Despite the dollar’s bullish reversal, gold formed a swing low on Monday.

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Gold printed its lowest point on Friday, day 29. That placed gold with in its timing band for its daily cycle low. It is a bullish sign that gold managed to form a swing low as the dollar printed its bullish reversal.

However, gold faces some strong head winds now that a swing low has formed. Gold will need to break above the 50 day MA just to get started. Then break above the declining trend line, which is aligned with the declining 10 day MA, in order to confirm the new daily cycle.

Something that we need to watch is that gold had closed below the lower daily cycle band as it declined into its daily cycle low. That ended gold’s daily uptrend. If gold rallies here and it does not manage to close above the upper daily cycle band before rolling over, then it will establish a daily downtrend.

The 3/10/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Friday’s break below the daily cycle trend line confirms that the dollar is in a daily cycle decline.

The dollar peaked on day 19, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also managed to close above the upper daily cycle band during this daily cycle. That ended the daily downtrend and indicated that February hosted an intermediate cycle low. Friday was day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band

Stocks
stocks

The daily cycle peaked on day 40, locking in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, following the day 40 peak. The swing low on Friday indicates a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Normally we would like to see break below the daily cycle trend line before looking for a daily cycle low. But this daily cycle is extremely right translated and it did not happen. Setting aside the trend line break there are other signals that help to determine a daily cycle low. Timing band is one of the criteria. Also normally present in a daily cycle decline is the True Strength Indicator delivering a bearish zero line crossover also along with the formation a weekly swing.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Daily Cycle Decline

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Tuesday stocks finally signaled that they have begun their daily cycle decline.

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Stocks peaked last Wednesday, day 40, which locks in a right translated cycle formation. Stocks next formed a daily swing high on Friday. Then they closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday. At 44 days that places stocks well into their timing band for a daily cycle low. At this late stage a close below the 10 day MA is a reliable indicator that the daily cycle is in decline. Stocks normally decline anywhere from 7 to 15 days into a daily cycle low. Stocks also should break below the daily cycle trend line before completing their daily cycle decline. So we are hunting for a daily swing low to form below the daily cycle trend line to signal a new daily cycle.

Miner Divergence

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Gold is in a daily uptrend. The daily uptrend is characterized by peaks occurring above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Gold should remain in a daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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The daily gold cycle peaked on February 27th. After tagging the 200 day MA, gold formed a swing high and then closed below the 10 day MA last Wednesday to confirm the daily cycle decline. While gold has declined for 5 sessions, gold remains above the lower daily cycle band therefore maintaining its daily uptrend.

The same cannot be said for the Miners …

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The daily Miner cycle peaked above the 200 MA back on February 8th. The Miners promptly formed a swing high the next day as it lost the 200 day MA and has been in decline since. The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band on February 27th, ending its daily uptrend. It has since continued to close below the lower daily cycle band, establishing that it is now in a daily downtrend.

The Miners are oversold and late in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Once a daily cycle low forms if gold breaks higher then the Miners will surely follow. But the bearish Miner divergence from gold may be sniffing out trouble from the dollar.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked last Thursday, day 19, which indicates a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar has formed a daily swing high but still needs to break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline.

So once the dollar breaks below the daily cycle trend line that should ignite precious metals to rally. The dollar’s right translated daily cycle formation has us expecting a brief decline to be followed by a rally into a new, higher high. Once the dollar begins to rally into a new daily cycle, that has the potential to cause the precious metals to form left translated daily cycles and begin their intermediate cycle decline.