The 12/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. This indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday. At 12 days, that is too early to expect a DCL. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday. It is likely that this is a counter trend rally to back test the 50 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks delivered sell signals on Thursday. But breaking to a new high on Friday to negate the daily swing high.

Friday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. It also solidifies the daily cycle trend line. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Seeking A Miner Buy Signal

0 miner surprise

The Miners printed a lower low on Tuesday. At 26 days, the Miners are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bullish divergences are developing on the oscillators that indicate that a DCL is near. The Miners are also in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So the odds are good that once a daily cycle low forms, it will also signal a new intermediate cycle.

A swing low and break of the declining trend line would signal a daily cycle low. However, it is still possible the see the Miners break lower.

Another potential signal would be a gap lower. The Miners gapped lower prior to printing the both the May and July daily cycle lows. Now that the Miners are in their timing band for a a daily cycle low a gap lower could exhaust the selling to set up the final daily cycle low.

The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

S.O.S. Signal

Stocks closed below the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday to confirm that it was day 60 of an extended daily cycle.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Stocks also broke clearly above the declining trend line to close above the declining 10 day MA. With stocks being so late in their timing band this indicates that Thursday should be day 1 of the new daily cycle.

We can also see that both the Russell and the Transports also managed to close above their respective declining 10 day MA’s to signal new daily cycles.

And with this type of agreement normally I would feel pretty confident that Thursday was day 1 of a new daily cycle. But there was a bearish signal that was delivered on Thursday.

Stocks printed a large SOS number on Thursday. The 701 million selling on strength is the type of number that will be printed prior to an intermediate cycle decline. It is certainly not the type of number the we typically see as stocks emerge from a daily cycle low.

So whether or not stocks still have more to correct or if stocks are preparing to form a left translated daily cycle remains unknown.

But the 701 million SOS clearly indicates …

Bullish Expectations


We have been discussing the status of the daily equity cycle in regards to whether day 45 hosted a daily cycle low. Last week we listed what needed to occur for us to change the labeling.

Last Thursday we outlined that the daily cycle is extended past day 45 if the following occurred:
* If RSI broke below the dashed blue line
* Stocks close below the upper daily cycle band
* Deliver a bearish TSI Zero Line Crossover

Since two of the three has now happened that has now shifted my thinking that this is an extended daily cycle with Tuesday being day 59.

RSI has now made a lower low and the TSI has delivered a bearish zero line crossover. Both signal that stocks are now declining into their daily cycle low. With a peak on day 54 this is an extremely right translated daily cycle. We should see stocks break below 2566.33 in order to complete its daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently very late in their timing band for a daily cycle low and have already corrected for 5 days. So a swing low and a break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

The big picture is that stocks are in a daily and weekly uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless the close below the lower cycle band. Therefore a swing low above the lower cycle band will be a buy signal.

The 11/10/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed an new high on Tues, day 17, assuring us of a right translated cycle formation.

The dollar formed daily swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday. The dollar continued lower on Friday to breach the daily cycle trend line and turn the 10 day MA lower which indicates that the dollar is ready to decline into its daily cycle low. Still, the dollar is in a daily uptrend & will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

On Thursday we discussed how the bearish divergences on the daily oscillators was calling into question whether day 45 hosted the DCL.

So we specified the criteria that needed to be met to change the label of a day 45 DCL.

Stocks did not deliver the bearish follow through that was necessary to meet the criteria for changing the day 45 RT label. Which makes Friday day 12 for the daily equity cycle.

And the significant Buying on Weakness number supports the day 12 labeling. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band remaining firmly in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Potential Miner Change in Expectation

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a daily swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, following the day day 9 peak. At 24 days, that placed the Miners in their timing band to form a daily cycle low. The Miners formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners also formed a weekly swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point last week. At 16 weeks, the Miners need another 2 weeks before they enter their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That sets up the expectation that this new daily cycle will form as a left translated, failed daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle low.

However the Miners are currently testing the declining weekly trend line.

The Miners lost the 50 week MA as they declined into the week 16 low. Already the Miners have formed a weekly swing low and have regained the 50 week MA. I said on Sunday that I believe that there is a Miner opportunity on the horizon which will arrive at the conclusion of the current intermediate cycle. A close above the declining weekly trend line would be a clear signal that week 16 hosted an early ICL.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* DAX
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

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A Miner Question

0 miner surprise

The Miners printed a lower low on day 18 and then formed a swing low on Monday. The Miners then broke below the day 18 low on Friday.

The question the I have been receiving is — did Friday mark a failed daily cycle?

There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that typically foreshadow the DCL. But even though a swing low formed on Monday, the Miners did not break convincingly above the declining trend line. And they still remain below the declining 10 day MA. That makes Friday’s lower low — day 24 for the daily Miner cycle. And at 24 days, that places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close above the upper daily cycle band.

I believe that there is a Miner opportunity on the horizon which will arrive at the conclusion of the current intermediate cycle. Which is something that I cover in the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* DAX
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here for the special 6 week trial subscription.

Subscribers can click here.

Are Stocks Waiting on Transports to Get In Gear?

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend. The daily equity cycle peaked on day 43, then formed a swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line to print its lowest point on day 45. Stocks have since broke higher to signal that day 45 hosted a shallow daily cycle low. And since stocks did not close below the lower daily cycle band they remain in their daily uptrend.

Even though stocks have broke out to new highs, they have not really gained any traction since emerging from the day 45 DCL. Perhaps they are waiting on the Transports to begin a new daily cycle …

The transports peaked on day 35 and have have been drifting lower ever since, printing their lowest point on Thursday, day 49. The transports rallied after tagging the 50 day MA to form a bullish reversal on Thursday. The bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. And since the transports are deep in their timing band for a DCL, a swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. Therefore a break above 9811.87 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. A break of the declining trend line will then confirm the new daily cycle. I believe that once we see the transports confirm a new daily cycle then we will see stocks get in gear.

Energy to Confirm New Daily Cycle

Energy emerged from its yearly cycle low and rallied close to 13% before peaking on day 35. Then it formed a swing high and drifted lower until printing its lowest point on Friday. That was day 48 placing energy very late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

XLE formed a swing low on Monday and managed to close above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. XLE then delivered more bullish follow through on Tuesday. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Since XLE managed to not close below the lower daily cycle band as it formed its DCL it remains in its daily uptrend. XLE will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.