Sinister Swing High

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We discussed on Saturday how stocks peaked on day 21, formed a swing high and then breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday setting up for a daily cycle decline.

Stocks delivered a clear and convincing trend line break on Tuesday, confirming that the daily cycle is in decline.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that something more sinister is afoot. I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which will confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

spx weekly buy op

Tuesday’s daily cycle trend line break has caused stocks to form a weekly swing high. At 34 weeks stocks are very late in its weekly cycle and due for an intermediate decline. Stocks are currently sitting right on the weekly trend line. If stocks continue their daily cycle decline they will break below the weekly trend line signaling that the weekly cycle is in decline. And in the Weekend Report I plan to tie this in with the status of the yearly cycle.

Steel is Coiling

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Steel broke above the declining trend line to signal that Monday was day 5 for the new daily cycle. I would like to see a close above the declining 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle.

slx daily

Steel printed its lowest point last Tuesday, day 21, which places steel in its timing band for a DCL. If last Tuesday is confirmed as the daily cycle low that will mean that steel printed higher low from the May 18th low. A higher low would indicate that steel has completed the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. We have been unable to confirm a new intermediate cycle because steel has been coiling below the 37.80 level for the past 8 weeks.

slx weekly

Steel appears to have printed a failed intermediate cycle low in May.
Steel printed its lowest point during the second week of May following the week 8 peak. 20 weeks places steel in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Steel is also in its timing band for forming a yearly cycle low. Once a new weekly cycle is confirmed it will signal that the new yearly cycle has begun.

Steel has been coiling below the the 37.80 level for the past 8 weeks. A close above the 37.80 level will confirm the new intermediate cycle and signal that steel has begun a new yearly cycle.

Oil Delivers a Bullish Signal

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Oil formed an inside day on Thursday. This is a bullish signal of an impending daily cycle low.

oil daily

Oil printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 32, which places oil in its timing band to form a daily cycle low. An inside day that forms in the timing band for a daily cycle low has good odds of signaling a new daily cycle. At this point oil needs to form a swing low and break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. A break above 44.20 forms a daily swing low.

In the Weekend Report I will discuss that once a daily cycle low forms for oil, that it will likely mark the weekly and yearly cycle lows as well.

Still Seeking a Steel Bottom

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Back in April I began scouting for a yearly cycle low for steel. I admit that I was early. However I kept monitoring SLX and now the indicators are pointing to a possible yearly cycle low for steel.

3 slx yearly

Steel printed its lowest point in May following the month 13 peak. May was month 16 for the yearly steel cycle. Since the previous 5 yearly cycles averaged 10.4 months, 16 months places steel late in its timing band to print a yearly cycle low. So far steel has been rallying in June. A break above the May high of 38.59 forms a monthly swing low to signal a new yearly cycle.

1 slx weekly

The previous 7 intermediate steel cycles have averaged 16.7 weeks. Steel printed its lowest point back in May, at week 20. That places steel deep in in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While steel has printed a weekly swing low we can see that steel has been coiling and has yet to deliver confirmation that week 20 hosted the intermediate cycle low.

2 slx daily

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily steel cycle. At this point steel may need to dip down and print one more daily cycle low before breaking through the declining 50 day MA. But once steel closes above the 50 day MA, it will also close above the upper daily cycle band. A close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new intermediate cycle and also that May hosted the yearly cycle low.

The 6/12/17 Evening Report

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The dollar closed lower on Monday.

$$$ Daily

Monday was day 4 for the dollar’s daily cycle. After an extended daily cycle decline, it is not unreasonable for the dollar to back test the 10 day MA before the daily cycle starts to gain some traction.

And once the dollar’s daily cycle begins to gain some traction that will cause the dollar to form a weekly swing low.

$$$ weekly

The dollar printed its lowest point last week, following the week 4 peak. At 18 weeks, that places the dollar in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So if last Tuesday, June 6th, did host the DCL then the rally into a new daily cycle will likely see the dollar go on to form a weekly swing low. A break above 97.47 forms a weekly swing low to signal a new intermediate cycle.

And if the dollar begins a new intermediate cycle, that should send gold into its intermediate cycle decline. But before gold rolls over into an intermediate cycle low there is the potential for this daily cycle to form as a right translated daily cycle.

gld daily

Monday was day 23 for the daily gold cycle. That does place gold in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The 2 obvious areas that could trigger a daily cycle low would from support at the 50 day MA or the 20 day MA.

gld weekly

Gold is in its 2nd intermediate cycle of the year. If the dollar is rallying out of its yearly cycle low that will potentially send gold into its yearly cycle decline. Gold has already formed a weekly swing high following the bearish reversal on week 4. A close below the 50 week MA will signal the intermediate decline for gold.

The 6/09/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a daily swing low this week.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 49, placing the dollar very deep into its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Thursday. The dollar continued higher on Friday to close above the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued to close above the upper daily cycle band this past week which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Even though stocks printed a new high on Friday, stocks closed lower on the day. Friday’s bearish close may indicate a daily cycle top. If so, a peak on day 15 would signal a left translated daily cycle formation that would lead into an intermediate cycle decline. A break below 2415.70 foms a daily swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA should send stocks into their daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Signals New Daily Cycle

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After an extended decline, the dollar formed a swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle.

$$$ Daily

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 10 peak. At 49 days, that places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low signals a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Once a the new daily cycle is confirmed, there are bigger implications on the horizon …

$$$ yearly

June is month 13 for the yearly dollar cycle. Since the dollar’s yearly cycle has averaged 9.7 months since the 2008 15 year super cycle low, this places the dollar in its timing band for a yearly cycle low. So once a new daily cycle is confirmed, it will likely mean that the dollar is embarking on a new yearly cycle as well.

The 6/02/17 Morning Update

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Gold closed lower on Thursday.

gld

The lower close eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 1262.00 forms a swing high. And then a break below the daily cycle trend line confirms that the daily cycle is in decline.

Gold has yet to print a failed daily cycle during this intermediate rally. Since 2 out of the past 4 daily cycles stretched past 40 days it is still possible for gold to form a left translated daily cycle, even with a new high on day 15.

The Miners are being contained by the declining trend line and they have not followed gold higher. This bearish divergence is a signal of an impending intermediate decline for gold. The Miners have already locked in a left translated daily cycle formation.

gdx

Thursday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners need to break below the day 15 low of 22.20 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. And if gold is in the process of forming a failed daily cycle, then the Miners will likely follow. A break below 20.89 will form a failed daily cycle for the Miners.

A rallying dollar will likely send gold into its intermediate cycle decline.

$$$ daily

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 38, following the day 10 peak. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar is also in its timing band for forming an intermediate cycle low. The dollar has already formed a daily swing low and a weekly swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle for the dollar.

The catalyst that could set things in motion is Friday’s jobs report.

Bearish Gold Divergence

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The dollar printed its lowest point last week on Monday, day 38. Which places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low and rallied into Friday which makes it look like day 38 hosted the daily cycle low.

Then the dollar closed lower on Monday.

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Even though the dollar closed lower on Monday, it still appears to be rallying out of a daily cycle low. And I think gold’s reaction on Tuesday supports that notion. Lately when the dollar declines, gold has rallied.

gold daily

In The Weekend Report we discussed the conflicting messages from gold.

The evidence that gold is in a new intermediate cycle:
* A new high on day 14 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.
* Gold is establishing a new daily uptrend.
* Week 21 places gold in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
* A weekly swing low has formed.
* Gold has broke above the declining weekly trend line.
* Gold has closed above the 50 week MA.

Reasons that prevents us from labeling May 9th as the ICL.
1) Gold has yet to deliver a failed daily cycle.
2) The dollar is beginning to rally into a new daily cycle.
3) A weekly swing low has formed on the dollar.
4) The Miners have been diverging bearishly from gold.

So instead of rallying on a day where the dollar closed lower, gold also closed lower — perhaps sensing the dollar has formed a daily cycle low. A close below 1261.80 will form a swing high on gold. Then a close below the 200 day MA will confirm that gold’s daily cycle is in decline. Since the previous 4 daily cycles for gold stretched between 28 days and 48 days, a peak on day 14 could still result in a left translated cycle formation.

The 5/26/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 10 peak. Monday was day 38, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday. A close above the 10 day MA will signal that day 38 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed at an all time high on Friday.

Stocks broke above the previous daily cycle high on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday. This confirmst that Friday was day 6 for the new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate that they are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in the daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report