The Miners Deliver Buy Signals

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The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, which was day 26. That places them in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The Miners delivered buy signals on Wednesday as they reversed higher.

Wednesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. Other buy signals that printed on Wednesday include bullish crossovers on both the RSI & TSI and closing above the lower daily cycle band. Wednesday’s swing low also has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I plan to discuss in tonights Mid-Week Update.

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Seeking A Miner Buy Signal

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The Miners printed a lower low on Tuesday. At 26 days, the Miners are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bullish divergences are developing on the oscillators that indicate that a DCL is near. The Miners are also in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So the odds are good that once a daily cycle low forms, it will also signal a new intermediate cycle.

A swing low and break of the declining trend line would signal a daily cycle low. However, it is still possible the see the Miners break lower.

Another potential signal would be a gap lower. The Miners gapped lower prior to printing the both the May and July daily cycle lows. Now that the Miners are in their timing band for a a daily cycle low a gap lower could exhaust the selling to set up the final daily cycle low.

Oil Confirms New Daily Cycle

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The daily oil cycle peaked on day 32, formed a swing high, and then began its daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point last Thursday, day 41, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Oil formed a swing low on Friday. Then it closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm that Monday was day 2 for the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band, continuing in its daily uptrend. And the correct strategy in an uptrend is to buy the dip.

However the longer term picture suggests to proceed with caution.

Oil has now entered the 4th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. This is week 25, which places oil in its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. So while our expectation would be to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated, failed daily cycle oil could still rally for 2 to 3 weeks and still form as a left translated daily cycle.

Miners Face Major Resistance

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The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday following the day 16 peak. Thursday was day 18, placing the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

The Miners formed a swing low on Friday. The Miners will need to close above the 10 day MA in order to signal a new daily cycle. And even if the Miners do close above the 10 day MA they face major resistance from both the declining 200 day MA and the declining 50 day MA. The Miners will remain bearish until the Miners can close convincing above the 50 day MA.

The 12/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, day 30. A swing low formed on Tuesday, setting up a possible daily cycle low.

Monday was day 30, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However, if the dollar breaks below the day 30 low of 92.43, that will extend the daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA after emerging from its daily cycle low.

Friday’s volatility caused stocks to back test the 10 day MA.

The large Buying on Weakness number indicates that Friday was a half cycle low. A swing low here will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Potential

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The dollar has not yet confirmed a new daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. While the dollar breached the declining trend line, it needs to break convincingly above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However any dollar rally is likely to be short lived. The dollar is in a confirmed intermediate cycle decline. Therefore our expectation is for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

And the dollar declining into an intermediate cycle low is typically bullish for precious.

Thursday was day 18 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a DCL. A break above 22.53 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA would confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners can potentially form a right translated cycle that prints a higher low. That would indicate that November did host the intermediate cycle low and that the Miners are beginning a new daily uptrend. The Miners would then need to close are the upper daily cycle band in order to establish a new daily uptrend.

Miner Expectations

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The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL.

So the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. This was week 12 for the dollar’s weekly cycle. That means that the dollar can trend lower for another 6 to 12 weeks before printing its intermediate cycle low. Which is plenty of time for the dollar to print at least one more failed daily cycle.

The Miners responded to the dollar printing a swing low by forming a bearish reversal off the declining 50 day MA.

Tuesday was day 15 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners 3 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners have been trying to close above the 50 day MA for the last 3 trading sessions. On Tuesday the Miners were rejected by the declining 50 day MA and then went on to close below the 200 day MA. With the dollar apparently beginning a new daily cycle it is quite likely that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. A break below 22.92 will form a swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The Miners did print a new daily cycle high on Tuesday. A new high on day 15 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. The Miners beginning to form right translated daily cycles would align with the declining into an intermediate cycle low.

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Evidence of a Daily Cycle Low

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, following the day 54 peak. At 60 days, that placed stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks did form a swing low on Thursday, the 701 million selling on strength had us skeptical if a daily cycle low formed.

Stocks dropped on Friday to back tested the declining trend line. Stocks recovered on Monday. While they did not close back above the 10 day MA, stocks continue to develop bullishly. They are close to delivering a TSI bullish zero line crossover, which would provide more evidence that day 60 hosted the DCL.

The Advance-Decline did regain its 10 day MA. There is also a bullish divergence developing on the AD Line and they are leading stocks higher.

And the Semi’s have printed a new high. The Semi’s have been leading stocks and now that they have printed a new high, stocks likely to follow.

The 11/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 17. It printed is lowest on Wednesday, day 23, forming a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA.

The dollar is in its timing band for a DCL. It did form a swing low on Thursday, but broke lower on Friday. The dollar still needs to close back above the declining 10 day MA in order to confirm that day 23 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Friday so it does remain in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

After peaking on day 54 stocks broke lower, printing their lowest point on Wednesday. At 60 days, that places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday that broke above the declining trend line and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that day 60 was the daily cycle low.

We need to keep in mind that stocks printed a large SOS number on Thursday. The 701 million selling on strength is the type of number that will be printed prior to an intermediate cycle decline. It is certainly not the type of number the we typically see as stocks emerge from a daily cycle low. Stocks followed that up by closing back below the 10 day MA on Friday. The take away here is there is uncertainty of whether or not stocks still have more to correct or if stocks are preparing to form a left translated daily cycle. But for now, Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report