Miner Progress

The Miners closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 42, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal that day 42 was the daily cycle low. The Miners will need to break above the declining trend line and the 200 day MA in order for a trending move to develop. In the Weekend Report I will discuss what this means in terms of the longer, intermediate cycle.

Bullish Traction

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 54, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Closing above the 10 day MA indicates that day 54 was the DCL. A close above the lower trend line will have us label day 54 as the DCL which should allow stocks to start to gain some bullish traction.

Gold Bullish Reversal

Gold printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 1817.10 will form a swing low. Then a close above the converging 10 day MA and the 200 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. In the Weekend Report I will breakdown what a new daily cycle means in terms of the longer term, intermediate cycle.

Stocks Still Seeking A Bottom — Update

Stocks broke below the day 46 low on Monday then continued lower on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday to extend their daily cycle decline.  

Thursday was day 54, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. At this point a swing low stands a good chance of marking the DCL. Recovery of the breakdown level of 4114.65 will have us label day 54 as the DCL.  Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back soccer the upper daily cycle band.  

Premarket update:

Stocks formed a swing low in the premarket. Now we need to see stocks hold it into the close.

Stocks Still Seeking A Bottom

While stocks printed lower low on Tuesday, they closed higher for the day.

Tuesday was day 52 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. The odds are good that once a swing low forms, that will mark the DCL. I will wait for a close above the breakdown level of 4114.65 in order to label day 52 as the DCL. Stocks are currently in. a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks Lose Support

Stocks closed below support on Monday.

Monday was day 52 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks deep in their timing band for their DCL. A swing low and close back above the support level would signal the DCL. However, closing below the support level could trigger a 5 to 7 day bloodbath phase as stocks hunt their DCL.

In the Weekend Report I take a look at the bigger picture for stocks. I discuss what this decline into this daily cycle low means in terms of the intermediate and yearly cycles. And why I believe that the best opportunity for gains for the year is still in front of us. 

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Stocks Complete Swing Low

Stocks competed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.  Stocks managed to recover the breakdown level on Monday, forming a bullish reversal. On Tuesday stocks completed a swing low so we will label day 46 as the DCL, using Monday’s low as the stop.  Stocks should go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

The Miners also completed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

The Miners broke below the previous DCL last week to form a failed daily cycle. The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, day 34, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low and pierced the declining trend line on Tuesday so we will label day 34 as the DCL. In the Mid Week Update I plan to discuss what this means in terms of the weekly Miner cycle.

Bullish Reversal

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Stocks began Monday lower, eventually breaking below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Recovering the breakdown level is a good sign that stocks printed their DCL. A break above 4159.81 will form a swing low and have us label day 46 as the DCL. Stops can then be set to Monday’s low. Stocks should then go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss what forming a failed daily cycle means in terms of the yearly cycle. Hint –> Bullish

The 4/30/22 Weekend Report Preview

Dollar

The dollar formed a swing swing high on Friday.

Friday was day 21 for the daily dollar cycle, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. The dollar has become quite stretched above the 10 day MA. If the dollar delivers any bearish follow through to Friday’s swing high that could send the dollar to seek out its DCL.  The dollar is in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes back below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday then negated that swing low on Friday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 45, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. So we are still waiting on a swing low and close above the 10 day MA to signal a the DCL.  Stocks are in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.  

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Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday,d ay 43, placing them late in their timing band for a DCL. Thursday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. Stocks should close above the 10 day MA and then go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of their DCL.

I do have a concern over how RSI 05 embedded in oversold during this daily cycle decline. I plan to discuss this further in the Weekend Report.