Miner Progress- Update

Last Thursday we looked at the Miners and observed that they formed a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

On Monday the Miners formed a weekly swing low.

The Miners printed their lowest point last week, which was week 28, to place them deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Forming a weekly swing low signals a new intermediate cycle. A break of the declining weekly trend line will confirm the new intermediate cycle. The Miners are in a weekly uptrend. Since the weekly swing low formed above the lower weekly cycle band — they will remain in their weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal. A break above the multi year resistance level indicates a resumption of the bull market.

The 11/16/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar recovered the 50 day MA on the previous week but lost the 50 day MA on Friday.

The dollar peaked on day 17 then formed a swing high on Thursday. The dollar delivered bearish follow through on Friday by closing below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA signaling the daily cycle decline. The dollar’s inability to maintain the breakout above the 50 day MA signals trouble for the dollar. Currently the dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

After consolidating below the 3100 level stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 31 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The new high on day 31 locks in a right translated cycle formation, which gives us the expectation for stocks to print a higher daily cycle low. At this point a swing high and a close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Miner Progress

When we last discussed the Miners we observed that Tuesday’s bullish reversal could potentially signal the daily cycle low. Tonight we will review their progress.

The Miners followed Tuesday’s bullish reversal by forming a daily swing low on Wednesday. Tuesday was day 20, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Wednesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. On Thursday the Miners delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA. The Miners also delivered a bullish crossover on the True Strength Indicator, which is another signal that Tuesday hosted the DCL. A close above the declining 50 day MA will have us label day 20 as the daily cycle low.

Miner Reversal

The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The weekly chart shows that the Miners formed a weekly swing low off of the week 24 low. They followed up by delivering bullish follow through to indicate that week 24 was the intermediate cycle low. However, the Miners were contained by the 10 week MA and then broke below the week 24 low last week, which negated week 24 as the ICL. This week the Miners broke lower still but have now reversed and they are in the process of forming a bullish weekly reversal. This week 28 for the Miner’s intermediate cycle, which is getting late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

So not only does Tuesday’s bullish reversal potentially mark the daily cycle low, it also potentially marks the intermediate cycle low. Since the Miners formed a lower low this week, the earliest a weekly swing low can form will be next week. The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. If a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band then the Miners will remain in their weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.

The 11/12/19 Morning Update

Monday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks are beginning to show signs of a pending daily cycle decline. Stocks have formed a swing high and there is a bearish crossover on the True Strength Indicator. The 10 day MA is aligning with the daily cycle trend line, so a close below the 10 day MA will signal that the daily cycle decline has begun. The peak on day 25 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Action – Revisited

Last week when we looked at the Miners it was week 24, which placed the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The Miners formed a bullish weekly reversal last week which eased the parameters for forming a weekly swing low.

This week the Miners formed a weekly swing low.

This week’s weekly swing low signals that last week was the intermediate cycle low. We still need to see the Miners break above the declining weekly trend line for confirmation.

The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. Forming a swing low above the lower weekly cycle band means that the Miners remain in their weekly uptrend and also triggers a weekly cycle band buy signal. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

The 10/19/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 25 to place it in the its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar did break below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report we will look at weekly chart and see that this is week 16 for the intermediate cycle, which is early to expect an ICL. Therefore it it possible to see a swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA next week to signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on day 6 and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and will probably need several days to cool off in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Closing above the upper daly cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Action

The Miners have trending lower swing early September and the daily cycle count has become obscured. I have Tuesday as being day 22, which places the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Thursday which signals that Tuesday marked the daily cycle low.

Since the daily cycle count is not clear we will look at the weekly chart.

The weekly chart clearly shows us that the Miners peaked on week 18 then formed a weekly swing high on week 19. The Miners went on to print their lowest point this week, which is week 24. That places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low accompanied by a break above the declining weekly trend line would have us label week 24 as the ICL. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

The 10/12/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Friday.

Friday was day 20 for the daily dollar cycle, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. This is the first time that the dollar closed below the 50 day MA since it regained the 50 day MA back in July. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Taken together they indicate that the dollar is not only in its daily cycle decline, but the intermediate cycle decline has also begun.

Stocks

Stocks printed its lowest point on day 42, which placed them in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Thursday. Then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm Friday as day 6 of the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain so unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Overhead Resistance For Oil

Oil appears to be in the process of emerging from its daily cycle low.

Oil printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 40, placing oil late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Oil formed swing low on Friday then breached the declining trend line on Monday to signal a new daily cycle.

The weekly chart shows us that oil is currently below the 50 day MA, the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA. So even though oil appears to be beginning a new daily cycle, the peak on week 6 followed by closing below the triple resistance level indicates that oil has begun its intermediate cycle decline. This sets up an expectation for the new daily cycle to left translated so oil can continue its intermediate cycle decline. Currently, oil is in a weekly downtrend. Oil will remain in its weekly downtrend until it can close back above the upper weekly cycle band.