Gold Bottom

Gold formed a weekly bullish reversal.

Gold printed a daily swing low on Friday to quite likely mark the daily cycle low. This is weekly 31 for the intermediate gold cycle. That places gold very deep in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low will signal the new intermediate cycle. The weekly bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a weekly swing low. I also believe that gold is forming its yearly cycle low.

Allow me to help track gold’s daily, weekly and yearly cycles for you. This week I am running a 6 week trial subscription special.

The 6 week trial subscription will give you full access to the premium site which includes a complete breakdown of gold’s daily, weekly and yearly cycles. The trial subscription also includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney 6 week trial subscription please click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Advertisements

Swing High & Bearish Divergence

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Thursday.

Thursday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. A swing high on day 14 sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with our longer term view that stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline which we discussed here and here. Stocks are in their 4th daily cycle & which is another reason to expectant intermediate cycle decline. There is a bearish divergence developing on the TSI, which is something that we see a cycle tops. A close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline.

Miner Volume

The triple leverage Miner ETF NUGT set an historic volume record on Tuesday.

The previous record volume day for NUGT occurred 12/15/16 where 26,912,064 shares traded that day. NUGT shattered that on Tuesday by trading 82,325,216 shares — over three times the previous record.

Since we do not base our cycle studies on NUGT but GDX we will now look at the Miners cycle count.

The Miners did undercut the previous daily cycle low on Tuesday. While 12 days is too early to expect a DCL, we will sometimes see an early DCL if the intermediate cycle low is also due. And the Miners are in their timing band for an ICL. And Tuesday’s bullish close is an indication that the Miners are printing an early DCL.

While the Miners often lead the precious metals, it is gold that drives the precious metals market.

Gold is late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. And gold is late in its timing band for a DCL. Once a DCL forms it will likely also mark gold’s ICL. And I think that is what the Miners were sniffing out today with their bullish close. Tuesday was day 39 for the daily gold cycle. As stated, that places gold late in its timing band for its DCL. Once a swing low forms it will likely mark the DCL for gold and the Miners, as well.

Another Look at Emerging Markets

I believe that there is a long term opportunity unfolding in the Emerging Markets, which we began discussing on July 5th.

Emerging Markets, EEM, have formed a swing low and closed above the declining trend line to confirm that day 22 hosted the daily cycle low. And with EEM being in its timing band for an intermediate and yearly cycle low, the new daily cycle has good odds of triggering both the new weekly and new yearly cycle.

EEM has been in a multi year consolidation for over 10 years. It recently broke out of consolidation in December, peaked in January, and then began its yearly cycle decline. As previously mentioned, EEM is in its timing band for a YCL. EEM is rallying off of support from the rising 20 month MA. The decline into the YCL has caused EEM to back test the break out for the multi year consolidation. The formation of a monthly swing low will indicate that EEM has begun a new yearly cycle. And that is has also successfully backtested the multi year consolidation.

The Nasdaq recently broke out of is multi year consolidation and backtested its resistance level.

After the Nasdaq backtested its resistance level it was off to the races …

Bearish Signals Begin to Cluster

Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Tuesday.

Not only did stocks break out to a new daily cycle high, they also broke above the previous daily cycle high to continue the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. However, stocks also delivered another bearish signal on Tuesday.

Stocks printed 625 million Selling on Strength on Tuesday. This is the 3rd large SOS day since stocks printed their daily cycle low. And that gives me 2 concerns. First off it is not typical to see large Selling on Strength days early in a daily cycle. And second, we typically see a clustering of SOS days near cycle turning point. And while the daily cycle is only on day 7, the intermediate cycle is on week 22. That places stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. And these are the type of SOS days that are more associated with an intermediate cycle decline. So we need to be prepared for a left translated daily cycle formation that will lead to the intermediate cycle decline.

The 7/06/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar peaked on day 11. It formed a swing high, negating the break out. It closed below the 10 day MA, turning it lower to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar then closed below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 16 for the dollar’s daily cycle. While the dollar managed to find support at the rising 50 day MA, it is a bit early to expect a DCL to form. And with the dollar in its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline it is more likely to see the dollar break below the 50 day MA to continue its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the declining daily cycle trend line on Friday to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band. This ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. With this being week 21 for the intermediate cycle we need to watch for a left translated daily cycle formation.

The decline into the DCL caused stocks to close below the 10 week MA. But the rally into the new daily cycle allowed stocks to regain the 10 week MA. At 21 weeks, stocks are in their timing band for a intermediate cycle decline. A weekly swing high and break below the weekly trend line is needed to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Another Bearish Signal for Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 39, following the day 28 peak. That placed stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low. Then on Thursday they closed above both the 10 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

However, stocks delivered another bearish signal on Thursday.

Stocks printed another Selling on Strength day on Thursday. So far the 3 bullish days were also SOS days.

It is unusual to see these SOS days as stocks begin to rally out of a DCL. Taking a look at the rally out of the previous DCL we can see that stocks did not print a Selling on Strength day until day 14.

Currently, stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline, which is something that I will discuss in the Weekend Report.I believe that the clustering of these SOS days is a warning signal for the pending intermediate cycle decline.

Emerging Opportunity

An opportunity is developing in the emerging markets.

The emerging markets (EEM) have been averaging a yearly cycle low every 9.8 months. EEM last printed a yearly cycle low on November, 2017. With July being 20 months since EEM last printed an identifiable yearly cycle low that makes EEM overdue for its YCL. EEM did peak in January, month 14, and has been in decline ever since. Once a new intermediate cycle begins, it will likely also mark the beginning of the new yearly cycle.

The emerging markets (EEM) have been averaging an intermediate cycle low every 21. weeks. EEM last printed an intermediate cycle low in February, 2018. This week makes it 21 weeks since EEM last printed an identifiable intermediate cycle low. Which places EEM in its timing band for an ICL. Once a new daily cycle begins, it will likely also mark the beginning of the new intermediate cycle.

The emerging markets (EEM) have been averaging a daily cycle low every 18.5 days. EEM last printed an identifiable DCL on May 29th. EEM printed its lowest point on Thursday, 6/28. At 22 days that places EEM in its timing band for a DCL. A swing low has already formed. A close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. The new daily cycle should trigger a new intermediate cycle and a new intermediate cycle should also trigger the new yearly cycle.

Bearish Signal for Stocks

Stocks delivered another bearish signal on Monday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, following the day 28 peak. Thursday was day 39, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. While stocks have formed a swing low, we are still waiting on a break of the declining trend line to confirm that day 39 hosted the DCL.

But regardless if day 39 was the DCL, stocks delivered a second bearish signal on Monday. The first was the 523 million selling on strength that printed on Thursday. That was followed up by 216 million selling on strength on Monday. Usually we see selling on strength numbers near cycle tops. It is very unusual to see a SOS number at or near the cycle bottom, unless there is a longer term concern. Which in this case is that stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. This was something that I covered in the past weekend’s Weekend Report.

The 6/29/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Friday’s bull trap signals the daily cycle is in decline.

The dollar closed above the previous high on Thursday. But Friday’s huge bearish candle closed below the 10 day MA and manged to turn the 10 DMA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. While a new high on day 11 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation, the bull trap and huge sell off on Friday has me thinking that the dollar will form a failed daily cycle. Currently, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

On Friday, stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.


Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 39, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. While Friday’s swing low indicates a new daily cycle, stocks will need to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks have begun a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report