Oil Forms a Swing Low

After forming a swing high in early October, oil has been in a brutal daily downtrend.

Oil as been tending lower for over 40 days. Oil printed it lowest point on Thursday, day 73, placing oil very deep in its timing band for a DCL. The bullish divergences developing on the oscillators accompanied by Monday’s swing low and close above the 10 day MA indicate oil has printed its daily cycle low. I suspect that oil is printing something more significant than a daily cycle low. Which was something that I discussed in the Weekend Report.

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Is Oil Ready To Rise?

Oil was already in its timing band for a DCL when the daily cycle peaked. Once oil closed below the 10 day MA to begin its daily cycle decline I began looking for potential spots for oil to form a swing low. There were 5 times during the 37 day decline that oil traded sideways, which would ease the parameters for forming a swing low. And each time oil broke lower, until Tuesday.

So after declining for 37 days oil maybe finally ready to rally.

There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators which normally herald a cycle low. Oil printed its first swing low on Tuesday since closing below the 10 day MA. The swing low formed off of the day 70 low, which was well past the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. A close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

The 11/23/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday and closed above the declining trend line to signal a new daily cycle.

The decline into the day 25 low did breach the daily cycle trend line. But it did not turn the 10 day MA lower. However the timing band and the TSI bullish zero line crossover indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks were in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The rally out of the day 52 low confirmed the new daily cycle. Closing above the 200 day MA looked promising that it also marked the ICL. Then stocks broke lower.

The peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. Losing both the 200 DMA & the 10 DMA, turning the 10 DMA lower, and closing below the lower daily cycle band all indicate that stocks are in a daily cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 2603.54 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the extension of the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

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More Volatility Indicated

A swing low is required to form a daily cycle low. And stocks did form a swing low on Wednesday. While it is possible to print an early daily cycle low, Wednesday’s large 593 million Selling on Strength indicates more volatility.

Stocks have already lost both the 200 DMA and the 10 DMA. Now the 10 DMA is turning lower, which is another check box for stocks being in their daily cycle decline. Both the transports and the banks also turned their 10 10 DMA’s lower to signal daily cycle declines. Neither the transports nor the banks formed swing lows, and in fact, the banks printed a lower low. So with Wednesday being day 17 for the daily equity cycle, it appears that stocks are feeling the gravitational pull of the pending daily cycle low.

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The Nasdaq Forms a Failed Daily Cycle

Both the S&P and the Nasdaq printed an extended 52 day daily cycle low on 10/29/18. They both formed swing lows on 10/31 to signal a new daily cycle. Both went on to close above the 200 day MA on day 7, managing to turn the 10 day MA higher to confirm the new daily cycle. Then they broke lower.

The Nasdaq broke below the previous daily cycle low on Tuesday to form a failed daily cycle. It also extends the intermediate cycle decline, which I plan detail in the Weekend Report.

While the S&P also broke lower they have not yet formed a failed daily cycle. But since the Nasdaq had been leading the indices higher, it will likely also lead them lower. Therefore, I suspect we will see the S&P also form a failed daily cycle to extend their intermediate cycle decline. Since Tuesday was only day 16 for the daily equity cycle. That leaves about 3 more weeks for stocks before they enter their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

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The 1/16/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Monday, day 19. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar formed a swing high on Wednesday and then closed below the the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band it will remain in its daily uptrend. But if a swing low forms below the lower daily cycle band that would end the daily uptrend and indicate the beginning of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

The initial surge out of the day 52 DCL left behind 2 gaps and caused stocks the get extended above the 10 day MA.

Stocks filled the lower gap on Thursday and then formed a swing low on Friday. This allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line (and move up stops) and label day 13 as the half cycle low.

This is the 1st daily cycle for the new intermediate cycle. Therfore our cyclical expectation is to see this daily cycle right translate. Stocks will need to break above the day 7 high of 2815.15 to do so. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.

If stocks have begun a new intermediate cycle then they will need to establish a new daily uptrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

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The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Uncertainty

The status of the daily Miner cycle remains uncertain.

Day 36 is the lowest point following the day 29 peak. The Miners did form a swing low and also closed above the 10 MA to signal a new daily cycle. But they have not delivered convincing evidence that day 36 was the DCL. The only clarity that we have is that the Miners are in a daily uptrend. However, a close below the lower daily cycle band would end the daily uptrend and indicate that the Miners have begun their intermediate cycle decline.

The 11/09/18 Weekend Report

The Dollar

Monday’s big drop in real time looked like the dollar had begun its daily cycle decline.

The dollar back-tested the breakout and then continued higher. While the dollar did close below the 10 day MA, it did not manage to turn it lower. Therefore we will label day 16 has a half cycle low making Friday day 18. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a weekly swing low and closed above the 50 week MA.

With stocks being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low this convinces me that week 38 hosted the ICL. Still, stocks are in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper weekly cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Form Weekly Swing Low

Stocks rallied on Tuesday to print a higher daily cycle high.

This has caused stocks to form a weekly swing low.

Stocks printed their lowest point last week. At 38 weeks, that places stocks deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks have already confirmed a new daily cycle. And now that stocks have formed a weekly swing low, it increases the odds that week 38 hosted the ICL.

The first daily cycle should form as a right translated daily cycle, which means that the daily cycle should peak after day 20. With Tuesday being only day 6, that leaves stocks at least 3 more weeks to go before expecting the daily cycle to peak.

Gold Confirms Daily Uptrend

The daily gold cycle peaked on Friday, day 20. A swing high formed on Monday as gold closed below the 10 day MA to begin its daily cycle decline. Gold continued lower this week. It managed to turn the 10 day MA lower and print its lowest point on Wednesday, day 23, placing gold in its timing band for a DCL. Then Boom!

Gold backtested to top of the consolidation zone and exploded higher, forming a swing low on Thursday. Gold rallied for 1.94% to close above both the 10 day MA and the upper daily cycle band confirming the new daily cycle. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band is a cycle band buy signal which confirms the daily uptrend.