Transports Ready To Cross The Line

The Transports had a big day on Monday rallying for 1.94%.

The Transports formed a swing low on Monday off of support from the 50 day MA. A swing low at this late stage should mark the daily cycle low. The Transports stopped short of resistance from a multi month trend line. Notice in February that the Transports did briefly break above the declining trend line. But it was too late in the daily cycle for a sustained breakout. But with Friday potentially marking the DCL, a break above this line will signal that the Transports are getting in gear.

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The 3/08/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA the previous Friday and closed above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday to confirm that day 19 hosted the daily cycle low.

The dollar broke above the previous daily cycle high on Thursday to continue a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Friday was day 6 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar did not deliver any bullish follow through to Thursday’s huge day. A close back below the 97 level would signal a bull trap and indicate that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Friday was day 49, placing stocks in the later stage of its timing band to print a daily cycle low.

Stocks have:
* Formed a daily swing high
* Broke below the daily cycle trend line
* Closed below the 10 day MA & Turned it lower
* Are late in their timing band for a DCL.

Once a swing low forms that should mark the daily cycle low. Then a close back above the 200 day MA will confirm the DCL. The high on Friday, day 45, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band, then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The3/07/19 Morning Update

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday.

Wednesday was day 47 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The high on Friday, day 45, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Closing below the 10 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. With stocks being late in their daily cycle, a DCL can happen anytime soon. And if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend.

Miner Support

Monday was day 11 for the daily Miner cycle which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. However, the miners formed a swing low off of support from the 50 day MA on Tuesday. So even if Monday was an early daily cycle low, the longer term weekly picture remains bearish.

This is week 25 for the intermediate Miner cycle, which places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While the Miners have formed a weekly swing high, they have yet to close below the 10 week MA to signal the intermediate cycle is in decline. And once in decline, the Miners should break below the weekly trend line before forming their intermediate cycle low.

Natgas Ready To Rally

Natgas is up in early morning trading

And is breaking above previous resistance.

Natgas printed its lowest point on week 29. Natgas normally forms an intermediate cycle low approximately every 20 week. The last time Natgas had an extended weekly cycle stretching past 23 weeks was back in 2015. Suffice to say that 29 weeks places it very deep in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. With this morning’s bullish follow through – last week’s weekly swing low has good odds of marking the intermediate cycle low. In the Weekend Updates I plan to breakdown why I think Natgas is also printing its yearly cycle low.

Miner Balance

The previous 2 daily Miners cycle were stretched at 44 days and 45 days respectively. Since cycles tend to balance out the Miners are due for a shortened daily cycle.

The Miners peaked on day 7, formed a swing high, and then closed below the 10 day MA – managing to turn it lower to signal the daily cycle decline. The Miners printed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 17, which is on the early end of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A break above 22.18 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. And since the Miners are in a daily uptrend, if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

A possible left translated daily dollar cycle appears to by the wind beneath the Miner’s wings.

Thursday was day 10 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar once again ran into resistance at the 97 level. Thursday’s bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 96.77 forms a swing high to signal the daily cycle decline. And since the previous daily cycle was a shortened daily cycle that favors the current daily cycle stretching to balance out the cycle counts. Then a peak on day 10 could lead to a left translated daily cycle formation which would align with the dollar still seeking its yearly cycle low, which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report.

The2/01/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday to confirm the daily cycle decline.

The peak on day 9 favors a left translated daily cycle formation. Closing below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

However, the dollar rallied off of support from the 200 day MA on Thursday. Then formed a daily swing low on Friday. It is not surprising that the dollar did not break below the 200 day MA on its first try. Thursday was only 14 for the daily dollar cycle. Since is too early to expect a daily cycle low, it is more likely that this is a counter trend rally that will set the declining trend line.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new higher on Friday, day 25. That locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are 5 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing. It is not likely that stocks will break above 200 day MA on its first try. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Something to keep in mind is that President Trump will deliver his State of the Union Address on Tuesday. Below are the last two times he delivered the State of the Union.

The last 2 times he delivered the State of the Union Address stocks declined into their cycle lows. And with stocks being 5 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low, there is the possibility history repeating itself.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Natgas Bullish Reversal

Natgas printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily cycle which places Natgas in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The previous daily cycle ran long. And since cycles often balance a longer cycle with a shorter cycle, that increases the odds that Tuesday marked the daily cycle low. Natgas still needs to form a swing low and break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. A break above 2.92 forms a daily swing low. In Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update I plan to discuss weekly Natgas cycle and how once a daily cycle low forms that it could also form an intermediate cycle low.

Now lat’s take a look at the volume on the triple leverage fund – UGAZ.

The volume on UGAZ has surged to an all time high. And you can see that previous surges in volume has often coincided with a bottom.

Oil Confirming The Intermediate Cycle Low

Oil went through a brutal 3 month sell off into the late December low. While week 19 is early for an intermediate cycle low, oil appears to be in the process of confirming it as the intermediate cycle.

Oil formed a weekly swing low following the week 19 low to signal a new intermediate cycle. Last week oil followed up by closing above the declining 10 week MA. This week oil back tested the 10 week MA and is now in the process of breaking above the 200 week MA. A close above the 200 week MA would have us label week 19 as the intermediate cycle low.

The 1/11/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 33, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. At 33 days, the dollar is due for a DCL. Therefore Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

The weekly charts are turning bullish.

Stocks formed a weekly swing low the previous week and delivered bullish follow through this week. Stocks still need to break above the declining trend line for final confirmation of the new intermediate cycle. And since we suspect this to also mark the yearly cycle low, then our expectation is to see the intermediate cycle right translate and peak on or after week 14. Stocks are in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper weekly cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report