Oil About to Confirm New Uptrend

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After emerging form its yearly cycle low in June, oil tested and was rejected by the 50 day MA. But oil recovered and then continued to rally, peaking on day 27. Then oil began its daily cycle decline, printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 39.

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At day 39, that placed oil in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Oil formed a swing low on Friday off of support from the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to declining into its 39 day DCL to establish a daily uptrend. Oil managed to close above the lower daily cycle band as it printed its DCL on Thursday. Once oil closes back above the upper daily cycle band that will confirm the new daily uptrend. Oil will then remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The 8/18/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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We would like to see a close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL but so far the rally out of the day 50 low has been weak.

Friday was day 12 of the new daily cycle. A daily cycle trend line has formed and the dollar has already printed a swing high off the day 10 peak. A break below the daily cycle trend line would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a punishing daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a lower low on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s narrow range day does ease the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2420.69 forms a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

However stocks formed a weekly swing high this week. Stocks maybe pulled lower by the gravitational pull of the impending ICL. A failed daily cycle would confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below their previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 will form a failed daily cycle. I discuss this in greater detail in the Weekend Report.

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Possible Daily Cycle Low for Oil

Oil printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

oil

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. Oil did not form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil finally broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point on Tuesday. At 37 days, that places oil well within its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal also eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 47.92 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to entering its daily cycle decline, which indicates that oil is in a daily uptrend. If oil forms a daily cycle low above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

Daily Cycle Low

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Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

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Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 29. After a narrow range day on Friday stocks rallied enough on Monday to recover all of Thursday’s drop. That and the fact that stocks also formed a daily swing low convinces me that the daily cycle low has been set. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will confirm the new daily cycle.

Oil confirmed its daily cycle decline on Monday.

oil_daily

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. It did not manage to form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm that oil is in its daily cycle decline. Monday was day 36, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. If a swing low forms now, it has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. If the daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

The 8/11/17 Weekend Report Preview

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a narrow range day on Friday.

Friday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low is required to mark the daily cycle low. Stocks did not break lower on Friday as they formed the narrow range day. Stocks need to do one of 2 things to form a swing low. First they could print another narrow range day that is a lower than Thursday’s low of 2437.75. That would ease the parameters for forming a daily swing low. Otherwise stocks will need to break above Thursday’s high of 2465.38 in order to form a swing low.

A peak on day 27 normally assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But with the weekly cycle stretched to 40 weeks we cannot rule out the possibility of stocks breaking below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 in order to form a failed daily cycle which would allow stocks to complete an intermediate cycle decline.

The Dollar
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The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on 8/04/17 to signal that day 50 hosted a stretched daily cycle low.

The dollar has not yet broke above the declining trend line for final confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL. So it is unclear if Friday was with day 7 or day 57. But since the dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Friday that indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and is declining into its yearly cycle low. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

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And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here through Sunday. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

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The 8/04/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The decline into the YCL is stretching the daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. At this point we need to see a close above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks peaked on day 19 and has since been forming a mini triangle consolidation.

1) Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Friday.
2) A break above 2484.04 signals that day 19 was the half cycle low.
3) Stocks are clearly in a daily uptrend.
4) Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 7/28/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued lower this week printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 46.

At 46 days the dollar is very deep in its timing band for a DCL so once a swing low forms it has good odds of marking the DCL. A break above 93.95 forms a swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 19. A new high on day 19 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation.

The daily oscillators have turned bearish signaling an impending daily cycle decline. A break below the day 19 high of 2459.93 would form a daily swing high to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. However, Friday’s 413 million Buying on Strength point to stocks continuing higher. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Warning

0 miner surprise

In the Weekend Report we discussed how gold formed a weekly swing low signaling a new intermediate cycle.

gld weekly

Part of the rationale that gold did form an intermediate low included gold closing convincingly above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Also gold closing above both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA supports a new weekly cycle scenario.

However, Monday’s drop in the Miners is a warning signal that the intermediate low for gold is yet to come.

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Recently the daily Miner cycles have been stretching 27 – 33 days so a peak on day 10 can surely result in a left translated daily cycle. Monday’s swing high and 1.61% drop signals the daily cycle is beginning its daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will provide more evidence that the daily cycle decline has begun. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band will indicate that the Miners are continuing their intermediate cycle decline. Last week we discussed how the accumulated 818 million Selling on Strength indicated of a left translated cycle formation. And this aligns with our yearly cycle count for the Miners.

gdx yearly

The yearly Miner cycle peaked in February and then printed its lowest point in May, month 5, which is too early for a yearly cycle low. Since cycle low is defined as the lowest point following the cycle peak, then the Miners will need to break below the May low of 20.89 in order to complete its yearly cycle decline.

So if gold loses both the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA then that would indicate that this is week 11 and gold is continuing its intermediate cycle decline.

The 7/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued lower this week, printing a lower low on Friday.

Friday was day 42, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break above the declining 10 day MA should signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline.

If stocks deliver bearish follow through to Friday’s swing high that would make day 14 the cycle peak. A peak on day 14 favors a left translated cycle formation. With the intermediate cycle on week 37, a left translated cycle would likely lead to the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks would need to break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 to form a failed daily cycle. However, stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Left Translated Bond Cycle

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The intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 15 and then formed a weekly swing high that saw bonds break below the weekly trend line to confirm that bonds began their intermediate cycle decline.

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The rally over the past 2 weeks has been enough for bonds to form a weekly swing low. A weekly swing low could indicate a new intermediate cycle but that would mean that bonds printed a 16 week intermediate cycle. Since the intermediate bond cycle normally runs 18 – 26 weeks, I am suspicious that this 2 week rally in bonds may only be a counter trend rally that will set up the declining weekly trend line.

In order for that to happen then the current daily cycle will need to form as a left translated daily cycle.

tlt_daily

Thursday was day 9 for the daily bond cycle. The new high on day 9 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. Bonds would need to have to roll over immediately in order to maintain the possibility of a left translated cycle formation.

Bonds did print an exhaustion candle on Thursday. A swing high here would signal that bonds were beginning their daily cycle decline. Bonds did not close above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. Since bonds began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 19 low means that bonds had begun a daily downtrend. So if bonds were to form a swing high then they will remain in their daily downtrend which would likely result in a left translated cycle formation.