The 2/08 20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed below the 10 day MA, the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA on day 21 to signal the daily cycle decline.

Any other asset that closes below the 3 moving averages listed above would surely continue the cycle decline. But due to the currency manipulation, the dollar regained all 3 moving averages on Monday and then broke convincingly out to new highs through Friday. The new high on Friday, day 26, locks in a right translate daily cycle formation which aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed their lowest point on day 40, placing them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday. The rally out of the DCL has caused stocks to become stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to consolidate in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 2/01/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar formed a swing high on Thursday.

The dollar delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA, the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA — which confirms the daily cycle decline. Closing below all of those MA’s also signals something more sinister is afoot, which I cover in the Weekend Report. Friday was day 21, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 50 day MA would signal the DCL. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks formed a swing low off of the day 36 low. Since 36 days places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low, Tuesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

Stocks failed to close above the 10 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle and then broke lower on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 40, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 36, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s swing low and close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new daily cycle. And while Stocks did rebound off the 38 fib level and RSI has also turned higher — indicative of an intermediate cycle advance … we are not out of the woods yet. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label day 36 as the DCL.

In the Mid-Week Update I plan to cover whether stocks are out of the woods in regards yet to their weekly cycle.

Correction

Stocks broke lower on Monday.

Monday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 33 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation, giving us the expectation for stocks to print a higher daily cycle low. So if stocks form a daily swing low, it will have good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

Two things that I am paying attention to is the RSI and the TSI. The RSI is oversold. When stocks are in the advancing stage of their intermediate cycle then RSI does not stay oversold for long, as witnessed in early December. So a quick rebound of the RSI will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. But the bearish TSI divergence is a concern. If RSI does not recover quickly that will point to stocks beginning their intermediate cycle decline. Which is something that I plan to discuss in the Mid-Week Update.

Stocks Keep Going …

Stocks have been on a tear since October after the Fed began Repo operations.

Stocks barely gave us a recognizable daily cycle low in early December. Stocks have since continued rallying. Stocks formed a swing high on Wednesday, day 34. That does place stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators which normally precede a cycle decline. So Thursday’s
swing high could send stocks to seek out their daily cycle low. A close below the 10 day MA would indicate that the daily cycle is in decline. However, if stocks form a swing low and continue higher, then stops could be raised to Thursday’s low of 3301.87.

Miner Uptrend


 

The Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 41 to place them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Then they formed a swing low on and closed above the 10 day MA last week. The Miners delivered bullish follow through by closing above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday. This indicates that day 41 was the daily cycle low. Also, closing above the upper daily cycle band resumes the daily uptrend. The Miners will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Oil Recovers the 200 MA

Oil formed a daily swing low on Thursday.

Oil printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 31, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Oil did close below the 200 day MA on Wednesday, which suggested a further decline. But oil delivered a bullish surprise on Thursday by forming a swing low and closing back above the 200 day MA to signal that day 31 was the daily cycle low. Oil will need to close back above the 10 day MA for confirmation.

JNUG

JNUG delivered a buy signal on Tuesday.

The decline from the August peak saw JNUG form a rounded bottom that printed its lowest point in November. The 200 MA (on the 4 hour chart) was resistance as JNUG was forming its bottom. Then JNUG broke above the 200 MA late December to form its daily cycle peak. The decline from the late December rally now has JUNG backtesting the 200 MA.

On closer inspection we can see that JNUG found support at the 200 MA. It formed a swing low and closed above both the 50 MA and the declining 10 MA. A long entry can be made with the stop place at the 200 MA which is 68.13.

This reflects what the Miners did on Tuesday. The Miners are late in their timing band for a daily cycle low and may have printed the DCL on Tuesday, which I plan to cover on Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.

The 1/10/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar printed its lowest point on day 11. That should have been too early for a daily cycle low to form.

However with the currency manipulation and the conflict in the Mideast it certainly appears as if an early DCL formed. The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA. It is running into resistance at the converging 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. A close above these two moving averages would confirm that day 11 was an early DCL. The dollar is in a daily downtrend.  It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
 

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 26 for the daily cycle. The new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks begin in a daily uptrend. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. Stocks did printed a bearish candle on Friday, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 3260.86 will form a daily swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Resilience

When we looked at the Miners on Monday we noted that they late in their timing band band for a daily cycle low and that the oscillators had started to diverge. The Miners appeared to be ready to begin their daily cycle decline. So with the dollar rallying on Tuesday the Miners demonstrated bullish resilience.

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on last week on day 12, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday and rallied again on Tuesday. Since the dollar’s daily cycle low can stretch to 26 – 30 days, Tuesday’s rally may just be setting up the declining trend line for the dollar as it declines into the pending daily cycle low.

And I think that is what the Miners were sniffing out on Tuesday.

The Miners have been consolidating the since becoming stretched above the 10 day MA as a result of rallying strongly into the year’s end. This allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. And if the dollar does compete its daily cycle decline that should ignite the Miners to break bullishly out of consolidation.