The 9/22/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a failed daily cycle this week confirming the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday day 17, placing it in its early part of its timing band for a DCL. The dollar could trend lower for another 2 or 3 weeks, but Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 93.93 forms a swing low and a break above the declining trend line would have us then label day 17 as a DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Friday, day 26, shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are 4 days shy of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low. Bearish divergences are beginning to develop which signal the impending daily cycle decline is near. A swing high and close below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Friday’s bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 2927.11 forms a swing high. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Miner Reversal

The Miners have closed above the declining trend line and have begun to turn the 10 day MA higher which confirms that Wednesday was day 6 of the new daily cycle.

The Miners have also formed a weekly swing low.

The Miners printed their lowest point on week 31, placing them deep in their timing band for an ICL. We now have confirmation of a new daily cycle so the weekly swing low signals that the Miners have also begun a new intermediate cycle.

The Miners had been in consolidating for over 20 months before finally breaking down and declining into what should end up being their yearly cycle low. The long consolidation should yield a strong trending move. I think that the move into the cycle low is got everybody on the wrong side of the boat and the weekly swing low above the previous yearly cycle low is a signal that this is about to reverse.

Steel Alignment

The yearly cycle low presents the best likelihood of gains for any asset class.

This is month 16 for the yearly steel cycle. Steel normally prints a YCL every 10 – 12 months so at 16 months it is very deep in its timing band to print a yearly cycle low. And steel is forming a bullish monthly reversal, which will ease the parameters for forming a yearly cycle low.

A yearly cycle low cannot form unless an intermediate cycle low is also forming …

Steel printed its lowest point his past week, week 24, placing still in its timing band for an ICL. The bullish weekly reversal eases the parameters for forming a weekly swing low. A break above 43.656 forms a weekly swing low to signal the new intermediate cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new weekly cycle.

And just like a yearly cycle low cannot form unless an intermediate cycle low has also formed, an intermediate cycle low cannot form unless a daily cycle low has also formed.

Steel printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 18, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Wednesday, then steel broke above the declining trend line to close above the 10 day MA on Friday to confirm a new daily cycle.

Confirming the new daily cycle is a signal that a new intermediate cycle has begun.
And if a new intermediate cycle has begun, then that signals that a new yearly cycle has also begun.

My thanks to Andrew who alerted me that steel was in the process of forming multiple cycle lows ;0)

Miner Bear Trap

The Miners printed their lowest point this week, week 30, placing them deep in their timing band for an ICL.

A weekly swing low is required as part of the confirmation of a new intermediate cycle. A break above 18.35 forms a weekly swing low. The Miners are in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper weekly cycle band.

Gold did not follow the miners lower and break below the previous yearly low. Therefore I believe that the Miners are forming a bear trap, getting everybody on the wrong side of the boat.

And after such a lengthy consolidation, once this reverses this should ignite a powerful move higher.

The 9/01/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 36, following the day 27 peak. A swing low formed on Wednesday. Then the dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle.

While the dollar still needs to break above the declining daily cycle trend it appears that the dollar is now in its 6th daily cycle. The dollar has already formed a weekly swing high (see below) and closed below the weekly trend line to signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. Since a failed daily cycle is required for an intermediate cycle decline our expectation will be for this new daily cycle to left translate and fail, which will usher in the intermediate cycle low. The decline into the day 36 DCL caused the dollar to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

While there is a little uncertainly regarding the status of the daily equity cycle, both scenarios favor a move into a daily cycle low.

I am in the camp that stocks hosted a mild DCL on day 33. Under this scenario, stocks would be in their 5th daily cycle. And the swing high that formed on Thursday, day 11, signals a left translated daily cycle formation. That would align with stocks being at 29 weeks for the intermediate cycle and being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.

If day 33 was not the DCL, then that would make Friday day 45, placing stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Therefore Thursday’s swing high has good odds of sending stocks into their daily cycle decline. In either scenario, a close below the 10 day MA is needed to signal that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Gut Check

On Friday the Miners formed a daily swing low and managed to close above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. And while gold has confirmed a new daily cycle we still needed to see some bullish follow through this week for the Miners to confirm the DCL.

The Miners did close higher on Monday, but they still have not turned the 10 day MA higher, which is one of our confirmations of a DCL. I will point out that the Miners did close above the 10 day MA on Tuesday. So it is still possible that day 35 did host the DCL. A bullish close on Wednesday would align with that scenario.

However, on Tuesday the Miners printed a bearish engulfing candle, which means that we still do not have confirmation that day 35 hosted the DCL. At this point the Miners could deliver an undercut low. If that were to happen then that would extend the daily cycle count which would make Tuesday – day 43.

The 8/24/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

On Friday, the dollar broke below Thursday’s low to negate the daily swing low that formed on Thursday.

Friday was day 34 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. The dollar should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks broke out to new highs on Friday.

Breaking out to new highs on Friday has caused the 10 day MA to turn higher, which convinces me that day 33 hosted a very mild DCL. This places stocks in their 5th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Since most intermediate cycles are comprised of 3 or 4 daily cycles, the odds favor a left translated daily cycle formation here to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. Currently, stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 8/24/18 Morning Report

The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 32, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. Thursday’s swing low indicates a daily cycle low. However the dollar has not yet satisfied all of the requirements for a DCL.

Printing a swing low in the timing band for a daily cycle low are 2 of the requirements for a DCL. The dollar has also closed below the 10 day MA satisfying another requirement for a DCL. The dollar still needs to turn the 10 day MA lower and break below the daily cycle trend line before we can be confident that a DCL has formed. And seeing how 6 out of the previous 11 daily cycles stretched past 32 days also makes me think that the DCL has not yet formed. Therefore we should see any rally by the dollar be turned back by the 10 day MA. A close above the 10 day MA would have us label day 32 as the DCL.

Day of Reckoning — Delayed

This its week 27 for the intermediate equity cycle. Since only 2 out of the previous 10 intermediate cycles stretched past 26 weeks, stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. And Thursday’s action seems to have postponed the day of reckoning for another 6 – 8 weeks.

Stocks did form a weekly swing high this week. A weekly swing high this deep in the weekly cycle should send stocks into their intermediate cycle decline. However, stocks printed a daily swing low on Thursday. The daily swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band to trigger a cycle band buy signal. The daily swing low also indicates that Wednesday was the daily cycle low. A close above the 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle. And if a new daily cycle is confirmed, that will shift the intermediate cycle low out for another 6 to 8 weeks.

Stocks Rebounding

Stocks are rebounding off of Wednesday’s lows with the Dow leading the way by forming a swing low in the pre-market trading.

Stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Wednesday’s bullish reversal had eased the parameters for forming a swing low. The Dow has already formed a swing low this morning by rallying over 400 points from Wednesday’s low. A break above the 10 day MA, currently at 25397.60, will signal a new daily cycle.