Buy Signal Negated

The cycle band buy signal was negated on Thursday.

On Wednesday stocks formed a swing low above the upper daily cycle band. This signaled that stocks remain in a daily uptrend and delivered a cycle band buy signal.

But that changed on Thursday.

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday which negated the cycle band buy signal. It also signaled that stocks are still declining into their daily cycle low. The swing high also allows us to construct a declining trend line. So now a swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

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Watching for a Cycle Band Buy Signal

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28 and formed a daily swing high on Friday. With stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline the swing high signals that the daily cycle decline is beginning.

While stocks broke below the 10 day MA on Friday they ended up closing above it to form a bullish reversal. This is setting up a possible cycle band buy signal. A break above 2782.81 will form a swing low above the upper daily cycle band confirming a cycle band buy signal.

While our cyclical expectation is for stocks to decline into a daily cycle low, the Advance/Decline line is delivering a bullish expectation.

The Advanced/Decline line has clearly broken out to new highs and stocks are likely to follow. So while stocks are in their timing band to seek out a DCL and formed a swing high, if a swing low forms here stocks could be setting up for a trending move.

The Mighty Dollar

The dollar ended last week forming a weekly swing high that followed the tag of the 50 week MA.

The weekly swing high signaled that the beginning of the intermediate cycle decline. This also aligned with our longer term view of the dollar declining into its 3 year cycle.

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The dollar began the day on Thursday by breaking below the day 36 low. At first it appeared that the new daily cycle was rolling over on day 4.

Then boom.

The dollar began to rally and closed near the high of the day to print a bullish engulfing candle. This extends the daily cycle decline to make Thursday day 41 of an extended daily cycle. The below the bullish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 94.61 forms a swing low to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar certainly surprised us with its bullish print on Thursday. Since surprises tend to arrive on the side of the trend, Thursday’s dollar surprise clearly indicates a bullish trend. In the Weekend report I plan to discuss what Thursday’s bullish surprise means on the longer term 3 year cycle . And what would need to happen to cause us to change our longer term 3 year cycle framework.

About to Cross the Line

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 36, placing it late in its timing band for a DCL. Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle.

The dollar needs to break above the declining daily cycle trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. And a bullish break above the declining trend line will likely send the Miners lower.

Monday was day 12 for the daily Miner cycle. So if the dollar delivers a bullish break of its declining trend line confirming its new daily cycle that will likely send the Miners lower. A break below the daily cycle trend line for the Miners will confirm the daily cycle decline. And with a peak on day 1 assures us of a left translated daily cycle formation.

So while the dollar is on the verge of confirming a new daily cycle, the dollar is nearing its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. In my Special Report: The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye I discuss where the dollar is on its weekly cycle. I also look at where it is on the longer term 15 year super cycle. I cover the last time the dollar delivered a Kiss Goodbye and the 151% gain that followed in the Miners – and – how the current set up is similar.

I would like to make available the special report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney special report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 6/08/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 36, placing it late in its timing band for a DCL. Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle.

The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Confirmation of a new daily cycle will indicate that the dollar is beginning its 4th daily cycle. Which makes it likely to be the terminal daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Therefore we will be watching for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks closed at a new daily cycle high on Friday. However the over 2.7 billion Selling on Strength over the past 6 trading days warrants caution.

While stocks closed at a new daily cycle high on Friday, Thursday remains as the daily cycle peak. Unless stocks break higher, day 24 would remain as the daily cycle peak. Therefore a break below 2760.16 would form a daily swing high to signal daily cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line would then confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/01/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Wednesday and broke the daily cycle trend line on Thursday to signal the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 32 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar should close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower before a daily cycle low can form. The peak on day 29 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

With the Russell breaking out to new highs on Wednesday and the Nasdaq on Friday I suspect that the S&P will follow suit..

Stocks formed a swing low & closed back above the 10 DMA to signal that day 17 hosted a half cycle low. Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band to remain in its daily uptrend. Stocks need to break above the day 13 high of 2742.24 in order to form a right translated daily cycle.

However the large Selling on Strength print signals that the daily cycle may be topping …

There was a 635 million Selling on Strength number that printed on Friday. While stocks can still rally higher, this signals caution going forward.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Equity Cycle Update

After peaking on day 13 stocks trended lower, printing its lowest point on Tuesday, day 17. Stocks then formed a swing low on Wednesday, closing above the 10 day MA to signal that day 17 is a half cycle low.

Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Wednesday’s swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band indicating that stocks remain in their daily uptrend. Stocks will need to break above the day 13 high of 2742.24 in order to form a right translated daily cycle.

However, stocks lost the 10 day MA on Thursday. So we will need to watch the daily cycle trend line. A break below this trend line would signal that the daily cycle is in decline. A close below the lower daily cycle band would end the daily uptrend and signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

TSX Cycle Band Buy Signal

The TSX formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The TSX printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 39. That places the TSX in its timing band for a DCL. So Wednesday’s swing low signals day 1 of the new daily cycle. The TSX also closed back above the upper daily cycle band. Closing back above the upper daily cycle band resumes the daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal. The TSX should remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Potential Half Cycle Low

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for over the past 2 weeks since emerging from the day 23 low. On Tuesday stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation.

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to Tuesday which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. So while stocks did break lower, stocks printed a bullish tail above the 50 day MA potentially setting up a half cycle low. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band would indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend. Then a close back above the 10 day MA would confirm that day 17 hosted a half cycle low.

What we need to watch for if stocks do not form a swing low but instead closes below the lower daily cycle band. That not only would confirm that stocks are in a daily cycle decline. It would also signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline as well.

The 5/25/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The new high on Friday, day 25, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 25, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line is needed to confirm the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. So once the daily cycle decline begins, if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend.

Stocks

Stocks have been consolidating for the past 12 days since emerging from the day 23 low.

Friday was day 16 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks will need to break above the day 13 high of 2742.24 in order for form a right translated daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band they will remain in their daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report