The 9/24/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The Fed decision to raise rates caused the dollar to break out to a 20 year high.  

Friday was day 30 for the dollar’s daily cycle.  The new high on day 30 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.  30 days also places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The dollar will need to form a swing high and break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a strong daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  

Stocks 

When stocks undercut the day 54 low last Friday, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicated a continuation of the daily cycle decline.

When stocks formed a swing low on Monday it looked, in real time, that the undercut-extended daily cycle low scenario was valid. Then stocks were rejected by the breakdown level on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through on Thursday and Friday. Therefore we will label day 54 as the DCL, making Friday day 13 of a failed daily cycle. And losing the breakdown level signals that stocks have entered a bloodbath phase. A break below the previous DCL of 3636.87 will form a failed daily cycle to signal the intermediate cycle decline.  

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Undercut –> Recovery

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

Stocks undercut the day 54 low on Friday. Monday’s swing low recovered the breakdown level to indicate that day 62 was the DCL. A close back above the 10 day MA will provide more assurance that day 62 was the DCL. But we will really need to see a close above the declining trend line in order to label day 62 as the DCL. 

Undercut In Play – Update

Stocks undercut the day 54 on Friday.

While stocks undercut the day 54 low on Friday, they also formed a bullish reversal. The bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 3880.95 will form a daily swing low. Then a close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 62 as the DCL. Stocks are still in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until the can close above the upper daily cycle band.

If day 62 is the DCL, then stocks will be beginning the 2nd daily cycle for the intermediate cycle. I have some concerns once stocks confirm the new daily cycle, which I discuss in the Weekend Report.  

The Miners Are Ready To Cross The Line

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 28, placing them in their timing band for a DCL.

The Miners formed a swing low on last Wednesday then closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. The Miners proceeded to deliver bullish follow through to see them testing the declining 50 day MA on Monday.

The Miners lost the 50 day MA back in April. We could see the Miners trade sideways to allow the 50 day MA to flatten out. No trending move will be able to gain any traction until the Miners are able to close back above the declining 50 day MA. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. The Miners will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Happy Days Are Here Again

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 54, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday. Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Thursday and Friday. Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday then closed above both the 50 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm day 54 as the DCL so happy days are here again.

Actually, overhead resistance from the 4100 level and the declining 200 day MA are a cause for concern. I have other concerns which I discuss in the Weekend Report.

Daily Cycle Update

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 54. That places them deep in their timing band for a DCL.

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday then closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle.  I would like to see a close above the 50 day MA before we day 54 as the daily cycle low.  Stocks should then go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of the DCL. Stocks are currently in daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The 9/03/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar broke bullishly out of consolidation on Thursday. The new daily cycle high on day 15 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar did not deliver any bullish follow through on Friday. The dollar is overdue for a recognizable intermediate cycle decline.  A swing high and close below the 10 day MA would set the dollar up for a bull trap which could lead to the intermediate cycle decline. However, the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  

Stocks

Stocks are still seeking out the DCL.

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

Thursday was day 52, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks will need to close above the converging 50 day MA and 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.  But a break below the day 52 low of 3903.65 will extend the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Another Low Risk Opportunity

Thursday was day 52, pacing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Since August of 2014 close to 80% of the daily cycles bottomed at or before day 52.

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, easing the parameters for forming a swing low. Stocks have retraced to the 50 % fib level and breached the daily cycle trend line. So if stocks form a swing low, the odds are good that will mark the DCL. A low risk entry can be taken on a swing low, using Thursday’s low as the stop. 

Low Risk Entry

Stocks may have found support at the 50 day MA.

Monday was day 49, pacing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks have retraced past the 38 % fib level and formed a narrow range day on Monday just above the 50 day MA. Stocks still could go lower to break the daily cycle trend line. However, since August of 2014 over 75% of the daily cycles bottomed at or before day 49. Monday’s narrow range day eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. And with possible support from the 50 day MA, if stocks form a swing low — that could mark the daily cycle low. A low risk entry can be taken on a swing low, using the 50 day MA as the stop.

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday.

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks formed a daily swing low on Thusday. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal.  With stocks approaching resistance from both the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA, one strategy would be to buy the swing low, with a stop at Wednesday’s low. Then positions can be added to with a close above the 10 day MA and then again with a close above the 200 day MA.