Miner Progress- Update

Last Thursday we looked at the Miners and observed that they formed a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

On Monday the Miners formed a weekly swing low.

The Miners printed their lowest point last week, which was week 28, to place them deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Forming a weekly swing low signals a new intermediate cycle. A break of the declining weekly trend line will confirm the new intermediate cycle. The Miners are in a weekly uptrend. Since the weekly swing low formed above the lower weekly cycle band — they will remain in their weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal. A break above the multi year resistance level indicates a resumption of the bull market.

Miner Progress

When we last discussed the Miners we observed that Tuesday’s bullish reversal could potentially signal the daily cycle low. Tonight we will review their progress.

The Miners followed Tuesday’s bullish reversal by forming a daily swing low on Wednesday. Tuesday was day 20, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Wednesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. On Thursday the Miners delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA. The Miners also delivered a bullish crossover on the True Strength Indicator, which is another signal that Tuesday hosted the DCL. A close above the declining 50 day MA will have us label day 20 as the daily cycle low.

Miner Reversal

The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The weekly chart shows that the Miners formed a weekly swing low off of the week 24 low. They followed up by delivering bullish follow through to indicate that week 24 was the intermediate cycle low. However, the Miners were contained by the 10 week MA and then broke below the week 24 low last week, which negated week 24 as the ICL. This week the Miners broke lower still but have now reversed and they are in the process of forming a bullish weekly reversal. This week 28 for the Miner’s intermediate cycle, which is getting late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

So not only does Tuesday’s bullish reversal potentially mark the daily cycle low, it also potentially marks the intermediate cycle low. Since the Miners formed a lower low this week, the earliest a weekly swing low can form will be next week. The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. If a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band then the Miners will remain in their weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.

Is Oil Ready To Cross The Line?

Oil ran into resistance at the 200 day MA last week on day 17. Oil then formed a swing high on and lost both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on to signal that the daily cycle decline has begun.

Oil printed it s lowest point on Thursday, day 20, which is early for a DCL. Oil should have continued lower for another 2 to 4 weeks before printing its daily cycle low. But oil delivered a bullish surprise on Friday by forming a swing low and recovering the converging 10 day MA and the 50 day MA. Oil then delivered bullish follow through by retesting the 200 day MA again on Monday.

Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. There is a bullish RSI pattern beginning to emerge. And there is a bullish crossover on the TSI. If oil closes above the 200 day MA we will label day 20 as the daily cycle low.

The 11/02/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The peak day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with the dollar being in a daily downtrend. Closing below the 200 day MA signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. A break below the day 26 low of 96.89 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks gapped higher on Monday.

Stocks then coiled though Thursday, backing filling the gap and allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Then stocks broke out to a new high on Friday. The new high on day 21 locks in right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. The swing low that formed on Friday indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

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More Miner Action

When we last looked at the weekly chart we saw that the Miners had formed a weekly swing low. This week they have delivered bullish follow through.

The Miners have broken above the declining weekly trend line this week to confirm that this is week 2 of a new intermediate cycle. The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band. A break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

Miner Update

The Miners printed their lowest point on 10/15. The Miners finally closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to signal that 10/15 was day daily cycle low.

But the Miner got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and saw some profit taking on Monday and Tuesday, which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. But the Miners closed for a gain on Tuesday. If the Miners deliver bullish flow though and form a swing low off of Tuesday’s candle, that will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line.

And the Junior Miners also looked bullish on Tuesday.

Like the Miners, the Junior Miners saw some profit taking after tagging the 50 day MA. But where the Miners only closed higher, the Junior Miners printed a bullish engulfing candle signaling that the Juniors are ready to trend higher.

Miner Action – Revisited

Last week when we looked at the Miners it was week 24, which placed the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The Miners formed a bullish weekly reversal last week which eased the parameters for forming a weekly swing low.

This week the Miners formed a weekly swing low.

This week’s weekly swing low signals that last week was the intermediate cycle low. We still need to see the Miners break above the declining weekly trend line for confirmation.

The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. Forming a swing low above the lower weekly cycle band means that the Miners remain in their weekly uptrend and also triggers a weekly cycle band buy signal. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

Bullish Expectation

On my 10/13 report we discussed how stocks had just formed a weekly swing low.

The weekly swing low was an indication that stocks formed an early intermediate cycle low.

Stocks have since progressed higher. A break above the upper stem of the weekly triangle pattern will haves label week 17 as the intermediate cycle low.

The Financials did break above the upper stem of their triangle consolidation.

The Financials breaking above the upper stem of their triangle consolidation aligns with our bullish expectation.

Miner Action

The Miners have trending lower swing early September and the daily cycle count has become obscured. I have Tuesday as being day 22, which places the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Thursday which signals that Tuesday marked the daily cycle low.

Since the daily cycle count is not clear we will look at the weekly chart.

The weekly chart clearly shows us that the Miners peaked on week 18 then formed a weekly swing high on week 19. The Miners went on to print their lowest point this week, which is week 24. That places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low accompanied by a break above the declining weekly trend line would have us label week 24 as the ICL. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.