The 3/24/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar printed it lowest point on Wednesday following the day 19 peak. That was day 33, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The daily swing low that formed on Friday has good odds of marking the DCL. A close above the 10 day MA would signal a new daily cycle. It would also mean that the dollar did not break below the previous low of 99.19 to form a failed daily cycle. If day 33 is the DCL then the dollar would have formed a right translated daily cycle. A right translated daily cycle formation would indicate that the February DCL did host the intermediate cycle low. However, a break below the previous DCL of 99.19 will negate the right translated cycle formation. It will also signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a lower low on Friday.

At day 57, that places stocks deep in in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low would signal a new daily cycle. I still would like to see a clear and convincing break of the (black) daily cycle trend line before being satisfied that the daily cycle low is in. However if stocks go on to rally from here and break above the declining (blue) trend line then that would signal that Friday hosted the daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Daily Equity Cycle Update

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Stocks broke convincingly below the 10 day MA on Tuesday which signaled that stocks were extending their daily cycle decline.

The reasons we discussed on Tuesday that stocks ere extending their daily cycle decline included:
1) The peak on day 40 locks in a right translated cycle.
2) No trend line break.
3) No real panic (until Tuesday)

spx

Stocks printed a lower low on Wednesday and has formed a daily swing low on Thursday. While stocks are getting late in their timing band for a daily cycle low, I am not convinced that the swing low that formed on Thursday completes the daily cycle decline. I still would like to see a clear and convincing break of the (black) daily cycle trend line before being satisfied that the daily cycle low is in. However if stocks go on to rally from here and break above the declining (blue dashed) trend line then that would signal that Wednesday hosted the daily cycle low.

3 Reasons Why …

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I have received some (many) emails asking me if today’s action in stocks signals a failed daily cycle. Here are the 3 reasons why I think that Stocks are now heading into their final daily cycle decline.

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1) The peak on day 40 locks in a right translated cycle.
2) No trend line break.
3) No real panic (until Tuesday)

The peak on day 40 locked in a right translated daily cycle formation. Right translated daily cycles generally go on to print a higher high, even if the following cycle turns out to be a failed daily cycle. Since stocks did not break out to a new high that is the first signal that stocks are still declining into their daily cycle low.

One of the tools that we use to help confirm the cycle decline is a trend line break. While stocks broke below the accelerated (red-dashed) trend line to signal the start of the daily cycle decline they did not break below the (black) daily cycle trend line. Now that that stocks are making their final decline into their daily cycle low they will likely break below the (black) trend line before completing their daily cycle decline.

As stocks move into a cycle low there is usually some panic selling as the cycle low approaches. In retrospect it does not seem that day 46 achieved any panic selling as opposed to the selling on Tuesday.

So for those reasons I think that Tuesday was day 54 for the daily equity cycle. Which places stocks late in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. I think that once the (black) tend line is breached, a swing low should mark the daily cycle low. Then a break above the declining (dashed) trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Gold Confirms New Daily Cycle

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Gold printed its lowest point last Friday, day 29, following the day 20 peak. While gold formed a swing low on Monday, it did not confirm a new daily cycle until Thursday.

gld

Gold did break higher on Wednesday, gaining over 2% and breaching the declining trend line. Gold delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by breaking higher to close above both the declining trend line and the 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle.

Gold began to close below the lower daily cycle band as it was seeking out its daily cycle low. That ended the daily uptrend and began a daily downtrend. Thursday’s rally fell short of breaking above the upper daily cycle band. If gold is turned lower here and closes back below the lower daily cycle band then gold will have established a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band would end the daily downtrend and signal that gold is re-establishing its daily uptrend.

Miner Conundrum

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The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday after peaking back in February. While the daily cycle count for Miners has become obscured, either count places Thursday in the timing band or very late in the timing band for a daily cycle low.

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The Miners did form a swing low on Friday. Our preferred tool for confirming a new daily cycle is a trend line break. But with the declining trend line over 14% above price we then look for a close above the 10 day MA, which marginally occurred on Monday. Had the rally out of Thursday’s low been more robust then I would be inclined to label it as a DCL. I suspect that the Miners will print one more lower low in order to form its impending daily cycle low.

And we have the dollar rallying out of a low to thank for this Miner conundrum.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 19 and then began its daily cycle decline. The dollar found support at the 50 day MA and printed a swing low on Tuesday. Monday was day 26, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close above the declining trend line will confirm Monday as the DCL.

Gold Facing Strong Headwinds

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The dollar printed a bullish reversal off of the support of the 50 day MA on Monday.

$$$ daily

Monday was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 101.25 will form a swing low. Then a break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar has established a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms then the dollar would have managed to avoid closing below the lower daily cycle band during its daily cycle decline. Which means that the dollar would remain in a daily uptrend.

Despite the dollar’s bullish reversal, gold formed a swing low on Monday.

gold

Gold printed its lowest point on Friday, day 29. That placed gold with in its timing band for its daily cycle low. It is a bullish sign that gold managed to form a swing low as the dollar printed its bullish reversal.

However, gold faces some strong head winds now that a swing low has formed. Gold will need to break above the 50 day MA just to get started. Then break above the declining trend line, which is aligned with the declining 10 day MA, in order to confirm the new daily cycle.

Something that we need to watch is that gold had closed below the lower daily cycle band as it declined into its daily cycle low. That ended gold’s daily uptrend. If gold rallies here and it does not manage to close above the upper daily cycle band before rolling over, then it will establish a daily downtrend.

The 3/10/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Friday’s break below the daily cycle trend line confirms that the dollar is in a daily cycle decline.

The dollar peaked on day 19, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also managed to close above the upper daily cycle band during this daily cycle. That ended the daily downtrend and indicated that February hosted an intermediate cycle low. Friday was day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band

Stocks
stocks

The daily cycle peaked on day 40, locking in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, following the day 40 peak. The swing low on Friday indicates a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Normally we would like to see break below the daily cycle trend line before looking for a daily cycle low. But this daily cycle is extremely right translated and it did not happen. Setting aside the trend line break there are other signals that help to determine a daily cycle low. Timing band is one of the criteria. Also normally present in a daily cycle decline is the True Strength Indicator delivering a bearish zero line crossover also along with the formation a weekly swing.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

A Low is Nigh

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 40, formed a swing high and began its daily cycle decline. Thursday’s bullish reversal could mark the daily cycle low.

spx

Thursday was the lowest point following the day 40 peak. At 46 days stocks are deep in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Thursday’s bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2369.08 forms a swing low and has good odds to mark the daily cycle low.

Normally we would like to see break below the daily cycle trend line before looking for a daily cycle low. But this daily cycle is extremely right translated and it does not look like the daily cycle decline will break the daily cycle trend line.

Setting aside the trend line break there are other signals that help to determine a daily cycle low. Timing band is one of the criteria. Seeing the TSI deliver a bearish zero line crossover and the formation a weekly swing are normally present as stocks decline into a daily cycle low.

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And stocks have formed a weekly swing.

spx weekly 2

The is week 18 for the intermediate equity cycle. Stocks have entered their timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. With a right translated daily cycle formation assured, stocks will need one more daily cycle in order to complete the intermediate cycle decline. Allowing 6 – 8 weeks for the completion of one more daily cycle will take the intermediate cycle deep into its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we will watch for signs that the impending new daily cycle will form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

Daily Cycle Decline

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Tuesday stocks finally signaled that they have begun their daily cycle decline.

spx

Stocks peaked last Wednesday, day 40, which locks in a right translated cycle formation. Stocks next formed a daily swing high on Friday. Then they closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday. At 44 days that places stocks well into their timing band for a daily cycle low. At this late stage a close below the 10 day MA is a reliable indicator that the daily cycle is in decline. Stocks normally decline anywhere from 7 to 15 days into a daily cycle low. Stocks also should break below the daily cycle trend line before completing their daily cycle decline. So we are hunting for a daily swing low to form below the daily cycle trend line to signal a new daily cycle.

The 3/03/17 Weekend Report

There is a lot going on this week.

* Did the dollar begin its daily cycle decline?
* Stocks are getting late in their daily cycle timing band.
* Are the Miners & gold ready to rally?
* Oil confirms its daily cycle decline this week.
* Bonds delivered a bullish print on Friday.

All of which is discussed in the Weekend Report.
This week I have decided to replace the Weekend Report Preview with a one-time posting of the complete Weekend Report.

My goal is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

The ideal time to buy is at a cycle low. 
* There are 4 cycle lows that I cover in the Weekend Report:
– The daily cycle low
– The intermediate (weekly) cycle low
– The yearly cycle low
– the multi-year cycle low

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

On to the Weekend Report

Summary:

Dollar:
The dollar formed a swing high on Friday. The dollar will need to close below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Stocks:
Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday and are due to decline into a daily cycle low.

Gold:
Gold closed convincingly below the daily cycle trend line on Thursday to confirm the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 20 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

Miners:
Friday’s bullish candle eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low.

Oil:
Thursday’s close below the 50 day MA confirmed that oil entered in its daily cycle decline.

Bonds:
Bonds continue in its months long triangle consolidation.

The Dollar
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The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday, ending the daily downtrend. The new high on day 19 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation and that February hosted an intermediate cycle low.

The dollar formed a swing high on Friday. The dollar will need to close below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to confirm the daily cycle decline.

A right translated daily cycle formation and breaking above the declining weekly trend line indicate that week 24 hosted the intermediate cycle low for the dollar. The dollar is in a weekly uptrend and will remain in its weekly uptrend until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

The dollar formed a monthly swing high in February to signal the start of the yearly cycle decline. The dollar has already formed a monthly swing low in March. Since there has been no failed intermediate cycle, that makes March month 10 for the yearly dollar cycle. The dollar will now need to break below the February low of 99.19 in order to complete its yearly cycle decline.

The dollar printed a failed yearly cycle in May to confirm the 3 year cycle decline for the dollar. The dollar has since printed new monthly highs. Since a cycle cannot fail and then print a higher high, this confirms that May was an early 3 year cycle low. That makes March month 10 for the new 3 year cycle.

The dollar cycles through a 15 year super cycle. Each 15 year super cycle is embedded with five 3 year cycles. The dollar’s last 15 year super cycle peaked in 2001 on month 106, then declined into its third 3 year cycle low. There are some similarities developing to the current set up. Currently, the dollar has printed a new high in January, which is month 105 for the 15 year super cycle. Which is about when the previous super cycle rolled over into its 15 year super cycle decline. At the previous super cycle peak the dollar was quite stretched above the 200 month MA as well as the 50 month MA — as it is right now. There are bearish divergences developing on the momentum indicators that also appeared at the previous 15 year super cycle peak.

May hosted the 3 year cycle low, which was a shortened 3 year cycle of only 24 months. Since most times cycle balances themselves out, we could be poised for the next 3 year cycle to be a stretched 3 year cycle just as the dollar is ready to begin its 15 year super cycle decline. And a stretched 3 year dollar cycle decline would align with gold beginning a new multi year bull cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday.

The new high on day 40 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. The accelerated daily cycle trend line has aligned with the 10 day MA. A close below the 10 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Since a failed daily cycle is needed to confirm the intermediate cycle decline, the right translated daily cycle formation makes it likely that stocks will need at least one more daily cycle to decline into an intermediate cycle low. That should take the intermediate cycle out to late April or into May. Stocks continue to close above the upper weekly cycle band remaining in its daily uptrend. Stocks will continue its weekly uptrend until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

March is month 13 for the yearly equity cycle. The new high locks in a right translated yearly cycle formation. Stocks are now in their timing band for seeking out their yearly cycle low. A monthly swing high accompanied by a break of the monthly trend line will confirm the yearly cycle decline. Once stocks begin their intermediate cycle decline that should also trigger the yearly cycle decline.

Gold
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Gold closed convincingly below the daily cycle trend line on Thursday to confirm the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 20 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 23, placing gold in the early portion of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Gold’s daily cycles have averaged 27 days since emerging from its 2015 bear market low. So it is quite likely that gold needs a few more days before printing its daily cycle low. Gold is currently in a daily uptrend. Gold will need to form its daily cycle low above the lower daily cycle band to avoid signaling an end to the daily uptrend. However, a bullish reversal off the rising 50 day MA would still allow gold to maintain a bullish posture.

This was week 11 for the intermediate gold cycle & gold continues to print higher weekly highs. Gold now faces resistance at the 50 week MA as it appears to be declining into a daily cycle low. Once a daily cycle low forms, gold should break through the 50 week MA and challenge the declining (blue) weekly trend line. However a close below the rising 10 week MA would be a clear signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

Gold formed a monthly swing low in January to signal the new yearly cycle and went on to deliver bullish follow through in February. Gold appears is being squeezed by the convergence of the declining 50 week MA and the rising 200 month MA. Resolution of this squeeze play will send gold in a trending move. Gold is in a monthly uptrend. Gold will continue in its monthly uptrend unless it closes below the lower monthly cycle band.

The Miners
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Regardless if Friday is day 49 or day 25, the bullish print has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 22.47 will signal a new daily cycle.

There are conflicting signals to sort through. The Miners have closed below the lower daily cycle band for 5 consecutive days. Closing below the lower daily cycle band is a reliable indicator that the intermediate cycle is in decline. That aligns with the day 24 low in January marking a daily cycle low which would make Friday day 25 of a failed daily cycle.

Gold, on the other hand, is clearly forming a right translated daily cycle. Since gold is the driver of precious metals, gold’s right translated daily cycle formation aligns with Friday being day 49 of an extended daily cycle for the Miners. Gold has entered its timing band to print a daily cycle low. If gold prints a daily cycle low and begins to rally, the Miners will surely follow. The Miners will need to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

Friday’s bullish candle sets up the possibility that a daily cycle low has formed. Therefore if a daily swing low forms, then a stop could be placed below the 200 week MA. This is week 10 for the Miners intermediate cycle. The Miners will need to remain above the 200 Week to maintain a bullish posture. If the Miners can form a weekly swing low off of the week 10 candle then we will be able to construct a weekly trend line.

The Miners have been essentially crawling along the 50 month MA since breaking above the 50 month MA in June, 2016. The Miners printed a bullish monthly reversal in December then formed a monthly swing low and breached the declining monthly trend line in January to signal the new yearly cycle. The Miners are in a monthly uptrend. The Miners will continue in their monthly uptrend unless they close below the lower monthly cycle band.

Oil

The day 27 peak assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. Oil closed below the 50 day MA on Thursday to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 35 for the daily oil cycle, which places oil in the early part of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Oil managed to recover on Friday, regaining the 50 day MA. Since oil needs to break below the rising daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline, Friday’s rally will likely be a counter trend rally. But a break above the declining trend line would force us to recognize that a new daily cycle has begun.

Oil has been coiling above the October pivot for the past 12 weeks. With oil in its daily cycle timing band, a decline into a daily cycle low should cause oil to break below the October pivot and break below the weekly trend line to signal the intermediate cycle decline. Often times the first move out of a coil is a false move. With oil in a weekly uptrend, a potential scenario would be to see a brief intermediate cycle decline that finds support at the rising 50 week MA. Then a break to new highs.

But with the current right translated daily cycle formation, that sets up the possibility that oil will need one more daily cycle in order to complete its intermediate cycle decline.

Oil is in its timing band complete its daily cycle decline. It is also in its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. But so far oil has resisted the gravitational pull of these impending cycle lows. So there is the possibility of a brief intermediate cycle decline followed by a breakout to new highs, which would certainly extend the yearly cycle out by another 4 to 6 months. Currently the yearly high printed in month 11. Barring a break to new highs, a monthly swing high and a break below the monthly trend line will confirm that oil has begun its yearly cycle decline. A break below 50.71 will form a monthly swing high.

Bonds

Bonds continue in its months long triangle consolidation.

Bonds did print a bullish reversal on Friday. A swing low here would make Friday a half cycle low. But a close below the rising trend line will have bonds at risk of printing a failed daily cycle.

This was week 11 for the intermediate bond cycle. Bonds need to break above the week 4 high of 122.87 to avoid a left translated weekly cycle formation. However bonds did close below the 10 week MA, which is a signal that the intermediate cycle is rolling over. A clear and convincing close below the rising trend line will confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Bonds formed a monthly swing low in January and has remained bullish in February. The monthly swing low signals a new yearly cycle. During the yearly cycle decline bonds managed to close above the lower monthly cycle band to remain in their monthly uptrend. They will continue in their monthly uptrend unless they close below the lower monthly cycle band.

As previously stated, bonds formed a monthly swing low to signal a new yearly cycle. Approximately every 32 – 36 months bonds form a 3 year low. The current monthly swing low is in the timing band for a 3 year cycle low. So confirmation of the new yearly cycle will also signal that bonds are in a new 3 year cycle. So far bonds have not gained much traction as it tries to rally out of the 3 year low. This is beginning to appear similar to the 2014 three year low where bonds consolidated for 6 months before getting traction.

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