Market Consolidation

We discussed on Tuesday that the drop into the day 33 DCL caused the 10 day MA to drop sharply. And there was is a good possibility that stocks will need to consolidate between the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA to allow the day 10 MA to turn higher.

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and now appear to consolidating between the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. The daily cycle will not likely gain traction until the 10 day MA turns higher and stocks close above the 50 day MA. The converging 200 day MA and 10 day MA can be used as the stop.

Miner Volatility

The status of the daily Miners cycle is not clear. Closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday indicates the day 16 hosted an early DCL. But then the Miners lost the 50 day MA on Thursday and formed a swing high on Friday.

A close below the 10 day MA will signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline. However, the Miners formed a bullish reversal off the 10 day MA on Friday. The Miners are currently in daily uptrend. If they form a swing low and close back above the 50 day MA then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. If this occurs then we will label day 16 as an early DCL.  

Stocks Found Support

Stocks printed a huge bearish candle on Wednesday, forming a swing high and closing below the 4700 level to signal the daily cycle decline. With stocks overdue for a yearly cycle low this could send stocks to seek out their YCL.  

But instead of delivering bearish follow through, stocks found support at the rising 50 day MA on Thursday.

Thursday was only day 22 for the daily cycle, which is too early to expect a DCL to form. While stocks broke below the 38 fib level, they should still turn the 10 day MA before they form their DCL. So any bounce off the 50 day MA should be contained by the 10 day MA so stocks can complete their daily cycle decline.

However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA then that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Under this scenario, we would label day 22 as an early DCL.

Miner Sell Signal

The Miners formed a daily swing high on Monday.

The Miners closed convincingly below the 50 day MA and also lost the 10 day MA on Monday.

In addition to losing both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA, the Miners also broke below the daily cycle trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 11 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation.

Following last intermediate cycle peak the Miners ran into resistance at the 50 day MA (1) in August and was turned lower. Then once again they were rejected by the 50 day MA in early September (2) then went on to complete their intermediate cycle decline in late September. Now it looks like November was the intermediate cycle peak and the Miners were rejected again by the 50 day MA (3). Any bearish follow through will send the Miners to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

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1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

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3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

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The First Domino

The first domino fell on Friday.

After consolidating below resistance for 2 months, stocks broke out convincingly above the resistance level on Monday. Stocks became stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday and started to consolidate, which will help to allow the 10 day MA catch up to price.  However, stocks formed a swing high on Friday. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the resistance level that will signal the daily cycle decline. And may set the ‘dominos’ in motion to lead to the intermediate and yearly cycle declines. I discuss this in the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. click here.

Bearish Divergence

Stocks became stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday. They have since been consolidating which is helping to allow the 10 day MA catch up to price.

While stocks are at all-time highs, there are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often herald a cycle decline. If stocks form a swing high and close back below the breakout level that will signal the daily cycle decline. And if this breakout fails I think that will also trigger the intermediate and yearly cycle declines, which I plan to further discuss in the Weekend Report.

Miner Rejection At the 50 MA

The Miners were rejected by the 50 day MA on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 8 for the daily cycle. A peak on day 8 would indicate a left translated daily cycle formation. Which aligns with the Miners currently being in a daily downtrend. If the Miners form a swing high below the upper daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily downtrend and trigger a cycle band sell signal. A break below 31.07 will form a daily swing high.

The 12/24/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear. While the dollar formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on day 22, it did not do ‘enough’ for us to label day 22 as the DCL.  

However, the dollar is behaving as if day 22 was the DCL.  The dollar has been trading in a narrow range for the past 3 week plus weeks.   The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday then backtested it on Thursday.  A bearish break out of consolidation will signal the daily cycle decline. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks rallied to close above the 4715 resistance level on Thursday.

Closing above the 4715 resistance level was our signal to add to positions. Stops can now be raised to the rising 10 day MA. RSI 05 formed a quick bullish reversal on Monday. We are now watching to see if RSI 05 will embed in overbought to indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. A quick bearish reversal will be a signal that stocks are shifting into the declining phase of their intermediate cycle.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Bearish Follow Through

Stocks dropped 1.14% on Monday. .

After being rejected by resistance at the 4715 level, stocks formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on Friday. They delivered bearish follow through on Monday by closing below the 50 day MA. Stocks also started to turn the 10 day MA lower on Monday. The peak on day 9 sets stocks up for left translated daily cycle formation. A close below the previous DCL of 4495.12 will form a failed daily cycle signaling that the intermediate cycle decline has begun and quite likely — the yearly cycle decline as well. Which I plan to discuss further in the Mid-Week Update.

The 12/18/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear.

While the dollar formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on day 22, it did not do ‘enough’ for us to label day 22 as the DCL. It has been 3 weeks and the dollar has been crawling along the 10 day MA, no doubt due to the heavy manipulation in the currency markets. So we may need to turn to the weekly chart for more clarity. (The weekly chart can be found in The Weekend Report) What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

It is concerning that since forming its DCL, stocks have been unable to deliver any bullish follow through.

We need to keep in mind that stocks are on month 21 for the yearly cycle. Which means that stocks are way overdue for a yearly cycle decline. Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. A close below the 50 day MA will trigger our stop. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend, potentially beginning the yearly cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.