Change of Character – Revisited

We discussed back on 10/01/17 that stocks were beginning to exhibit a change of character. I thought that tonight we would a revisit that discussion.

That last time that stocks printed a failed daily cycle was during the decline into the October, 2016 intermediate cycle low. Following the 10/2016 intermediate low the intermediate cycle timing bands still worked, but two times in a row stocks did not deliver a failed daily cycle during their intermediate cycle decline. I said then that “I believe that this weekly uptrend is becoming so strong that we may not see a failed daily cycle until the weekly uptrend ends.” And that continues to be the case.

But I will point out that both the RUT & the transports delivered failed daily cycles. So I thought that it would be interesting to look at the current daily cycle for all three.

Both the RUT & the transports are in their timing bands for seeking out a daily cycle low. Both have formed swing highs and delivered trend line breaks to confirm their daily cycle declines. But stocks keep drifting higher. Since stocks have already exhibited a change of behavior by not forming a failed daily cycle we need to be prepared for another change of character, a mild daily cycle decline.

I would like to see stocks form a swing high and deliver a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. However, if both the RUT & the transports form a swing low and close back above their 10 day MA that would signal a new daily cycle. And if stocks only continue to drift sideways we may be forced to recognize any mild dip at that point as the daily cycle low.

So going forward there may be a question if our timing band tool will be effective as stocks continue in their weekly uptrend. But what has been effective is our cycle band tool. Our cycle band tool has been able to identify both the daily and weekly uptrends. As long as any dip forms a swing low above the lower cycle band, then the correct strategy is that the dip should be bought because stocks will continue in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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A Miner Downtrend

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The Miners formed a swing high on Monday.

Monday’s swing high broke below the daily cycle trend line to close below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. This signals that the daily cycle is now in decline.

Monday was day 10 for the daily Miner cycle. A peak on day 9 can often result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.91 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 59 DCL. This began their daily downtrend. Since the Miners failed to close above the upper daily cycle band before forming their daily swing high, they remain in their daily downtrend. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

A Miner Rally

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Last week we discussed how the Miners formed a daily cycle low. We also discussed that the dollar emerging out of a potential yearly cycle low would likely cause a left translated cycle formation. So today I wanted to take a follow up look at the Miners.

The Miners did close above the 50 day MA on Friday and provided more bullish follow through on Tuesday. However the Miners printed 170 million SOS on Friday and 108 million SOS on Monday. Typically these types of Selling on Strength numbers are associated with an intermediate cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners printed another higher high. But, Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing high. Since the Miners are already in a daily downtrend, a swing high here will allow the Miners to remain in their daily downtrend. A break below 23.53 would form a daily swing high. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Equity Timing Band

Tuesday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low.

Stocks printed their daily cycle high last Thursday, day 31, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But stocks have since closed lower for 2 straight days, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 2450.02 forms a swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks are in a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. As long as stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band, then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. And under that scenario, the dip should be bought.

The transports have already confirmed their daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 31 for the transports daily cycle. That places them in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The transports have already formed a swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that they have entered their daily cycle decline. The transports have also been in a daily uptrend. They will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10/06/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday, setting up a potential move down into a daily cycle low.

Friday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing the dollar in its timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 93.60 will form a daily swing high. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

trend line

Stocks
stocks

Thursday’s new high on day 31 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for seeking out a daily cycle low. A swing high and trend line break will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 2540.02 would form a daily swing high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Slips

Oil formed a bearish reversal on Thursday.

Thursday was day 19 for the daily oil cycle. The new high on day 19 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. However, the bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 51.22 forms a swing high and then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil is in a daily uptrend and will remain so until it closes below the lower daily cycle band. A daily low forming above the lower daily cycle band would be a buy signal.

Close, But No Cigar

The Miners came close to forming a daily swing low on Friday.

Close, but no cigar …

The Miners rallied on Friday to gain 1.12% on the day. While the Miners failed to form a daily swing low, they did regain the 50 day MA and close above the lower daily cycle band delivering the first signals that day 52 hosted the daily cycle low.

So a swing low has good odds of forming the daily cycle low, which is a buying signal. But there are some signals developing that indicate that the Miners have begun an intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band Thursday and Friday, which signals the start of the intermediate cycle decline. On the weekly chart we can see that the Miners have formed a weekly swing high and delivered a break below the weekly trend line. Both of which indicate that the Miners are in an intermediate cycle decline. And this is before the dollar beings to rally out of its intermediate cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on week 31, placing it deep in its timing band for an ICL. So while a new daily dollar cycle has begun, the dollar still needs to form a weekly swing low and break above the declining weekly trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle. And if the dollar’s intermediate rally begins to develop some traction, that will surely send the Miners lower.

The 9/22/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar finally broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL.

The dollar’s highest point so far was Wednesday, day 8. If the dollar fails to break above Wednesday’s high of 92.50 then it will form another left translated daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday, day 21. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation and provides more evidence that August 21st hosted the ICL.

After printing a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, stocks drifted lower into Friday. But Friday’s bullish closed allowed stocks to remain above the 10 day MA. If a swing low forms then that would indicate that Thursday was a very mild half cycle low. If stocks continue lower and break below Wednesdays’ low of 2496.67 that will form a swing high to indicate the daily cycle decline. However, stocks remain locked in a daily uptrend so any dip is a buying opportunity. Stocks will continue it its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Change in Expectation

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On Monday we discussed hunting for a Miner buying signal. Since then the Miners have continued lower and have changed our expectations.

The peak on day 42 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. But since then the Miners have delivered some bearish signals. First off the Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band. A close below the lower daily cycle band indicates and end to the daily uptrend and the start of the intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners delivered a second bearish signal on Thursday by closing below the 50 day MA. With the Miners being very deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low the rising 50 day MA should have provided support for a daily cycle low to form.

There are also bearish signals developing on the weekly chart.

The Miners have formed a weekly swing high and has broke below the weekly trend line to signal that the intermediate decline has started. Therefore once the daily cycle low forms we will be watching for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated failed daily cycle.

The odds of a left translated daily cycle formation for the Miners will certainly increase if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle.

Week 31 remains as the lowest point, placing the dollar late in its timing band to form an ICL. The dollar has confirmed that it began a new daily cycle. So a weekly swing low and a break above the declining 10 week MA will confirm the new intermediate cycle. A break above 92.69 will form a weekly swing low. And if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle that should send the Miners to seek out their intermediate cycle low.