The 7/20/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a daily swing high on Friday to set up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar is in its 5th daily cycle, therefore we are expecting a left translated daily cycle formation. Friday’s close below the 10 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. A close below the 50 day MA will signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin the daily downtrend. It will also signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing high this week setting up a potential left translated daily cycle formation.

A close below the 10 day MA will signal that the daily cycle decline has begun. Stocks are currently in a weekly uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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Swing High & Bearish Divergence

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Thursday.

Thursday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. A swing high on day 14 sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with our longer term view that stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline which we discussed here and here. Stocks are in their 4th daily cycle & which is another reason to expectant intermediate cycle decline. There is a bearish divergence developing on the TSI, which is something that we see a cycle tops. A close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline.

The 7/13/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the declining trend line and 10 day MA on Wednesday to confirm the new daily cycle.

This is the 5th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Therefore we are expecting a left translated daily cycle formation to trigger the intermediate cycle decline. Friday’s bearish reversal on day 4 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below 94.43 will form a daily swing high to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Friday, day 10.

While stocks printed a new high on Friday, there are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. The status of the intermediate cycle has us expecting a left translated daily cycle formation. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line would indicate that the daily cycle decline has begun. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 7/06/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar peaked on day 11. It formed a swing high, negating the break out. It closed below the 10 day MA, turning it lower to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar then closed below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 16 for the dollar’s daily cycle. While the dollar managed to find support at the rising 50 day MA, it is a bit early to expect a DCL to form. And with the dollar in its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline it is more likely to see the dollar break below the 50 day MA to continue its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the declining daily cycle trend line on Friday to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band. This ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. With this being week 21 for the intermediate cycle we need to watch for a left translated daily cycle formation.

The decline into the DCL caused stocks to close below the 10 week MA. But the rally into the new daily cycle allowed stocks to regain the 10 week MA. At 21 weeks, stocks are in their timing band for a intermediate cycle decline. A weekly swing high and break below the weekly trend line is needed to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/22/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar’s bearish reversal on day 5 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar followed up Thursday’s bearish reversal by forming a daily swing high. The dollar also closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the beginning of the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 5 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework, which I discuss in the Weekend Report. However, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28. Then went on to form a swing high and close below the day 10 MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 32, which places stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Wednesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

But stocks formed a swing high on Thursday, negating Wednesday’s swing low. A break below 2743.19 will extend the daily cycle decline. But a close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Buy Signal Negated

The cycle band buy signal was negated on Thursday.

On Wednesday stocks formed a swing low above the upper daily cycle band. This signaled that stocks remain in a daily uptrend and delivered a cycle band buy signal.

But that changed on Thursday.

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday which negated the cycle band buy signal. It also signaled that stocks are still declining into their daily cycle low. The swing high also allows us to construct a declining trend line. So now a swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Watching for a Cycle Band Buy Signal

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28 and formed a daily swing high on Friday. With stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline the swing high signals that the daily cycle decline is beginning.

While stocks broke below the 10 day MA on Friday they ended up closing above it to form a bullish reversal. This is setting up a possible cycle band buy signal. A break above 2782.81 will form a swing low above the upper daily cycle band confirming a cycle band buy signal.

While our cyclical expectation is for stocks to decline into a daily cycle low, the Advance/Decline line is delivering a bullish expectation.

The Advanced/Decline line has clearly broken out to new highs and stocks are likely to follow. So while stocks are in their timing band to seek out a DCL and formed a swing high, if a swing low forms here stocks could be setting up for a trending move.

The Mighty Dollar

The dollar ended last week forming a weekly swing high that followed the tag of the 50 week MA.

The weekly swing high signaled that the beginning of the intermediate cycle decline. This also aligned with our longer term view of the dollar declining into its 3 year cycle.

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The dollar began the day on Thursday by breaking below the day 36 low. At first it appeared that the new daily cycle was rolling over on day 4.

Then boom.

The dollar began to rally and closed near the high of the day to print a bullish engulfing candle. This extends the daily cycle decline to make Thursday day 41 of an extended daily cycle. The below the bullish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 94.61 forms a swing low to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar certainly surprised us with its bullish print on Thursday. Since surprises tend to arrive on the side of the trend, Thursday’s dollar surprise clearly indicates a bullish trend. In the Weekend report I plan to discuss what Thursday’s bullish surprise means on the longer term 3 year cycle . And what would need to happen to cause us to change our longer term 3 year cycle framework.

The 6/01/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Wednesday and broke the daily cycle trend line on Thursday to signal the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 32 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar should close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower before a daily cycle low can form. The peak on day 29 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

With the Russell breaking out to new highs on Wednesday and the Nasdaq on Friday I suspect that the S&P will follow suit..

Stocks formed a swing low & closed back above the 10 DMA to signal that day 17 hosted a half cycle low. Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band to remain in its daily uptrend. Stocks need to break above the day 13 high of 2742.24 in order to form a right translated daily cycle.

However the large Selling on Strength print signals that the daily cycle may be topping …

There was a 635 million Selling on Strength number that printed on Friday. While stocks can still rally higher, this signals caution going forward.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 5/23/18 Morning Update – Could the TSX Be Your Cup of Tea?

The Toronto Stock Exchange printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 33 for the TSX, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 16139.77 forms a swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The TSX has been in a multi month consolidation setting up a potential cup and handle pattern. The anticipated decline into the daily cycle low will allow the TSX to complete the handle portion of the consolidation pattern. Also, the TSX has established a daily uptrend. If the DCL forms above the lower daily cycle band it will remain in its daily uptrend.