The 10/20/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday to confirm that day 24 hosted the DCL which makes Friday day 5 of the new daily cycle.

The dollar established a daily uptrend prior to the drop into the daily cycle low. By closing back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday affirms the daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday and appear to have begun a new daily cycle.

A decline into a daily cycle low normally lasts 7 to 15 days. The peak on day 40 is an extremely right translated daily cycle formation which does not leave much time in the normal timing band for a normal daily cycle decline. We also discussed how the behavior of previous 2 intermediate cycle has changed because they did not produce a failed daily cycle. Unless proven otherwise this change in behavior is filtering down to the daily cycle level as evidenced by the 1 day decline into a daily cycle low.

Part of our evidence that stocks printed a 1 day daily cycle decline is that both the Russell and the transports delivered a more recognizable daily cycle decline. All three have formed swing lows and closed back above their respective 10 day MA’s to signal new daily cycles. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Change of Character – Revisited

We discussed back on 10/01/17 that stocks were beginning to exhibit a change of character. I thought that tonight we would a revisit that discussion.

That last time that stocks printed a failed daily cycle was during the decline into the October, 2016 intermediate cycle low. Following the 10/2016 intermediate low the intermediate cycle timing bands still worked, but two times in a row stocks did not deliver a failed daily cycle during their intermediate cycle decline. I said then that “I believe that this weekly uptrend is becoming so strong that we may not see a failed daily cycle until the weekly uptrend ends.” And that continues to be the case.

But I will point out that both the RUT & the transports delivered failed daily cycles. So I thought that it would be interesting to look at the current daily cycle for all three.

Both the RUT & the transports are in their timing bands for seeking out a daily cycle low. Both have formed swing highs and delivered trend line breaks to confirm their daily cycle declines. But stocks keep drifting higher. Since stocks have already exhibited a change of behavior by not forming a failed daily cycle we need to be prepared for another change of character, a mild daily cycle decline.

I would like to see stocks form a swing high and deliver a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. However, if both the RUT & the transports form a swing low and close back above their 10 day MA that would signal a new daily cycle. And if stocks only continue to drift sideways we may be forced to recognize any mild dip at that point as the daily cycle low.

So going forward there may be a question if our timing band tool will be effective as stocks continue in their weekly uptrend. But what has been effective is our cycle band tool. Our cycle band tool has been able to identify both the daily and weekly uptrends. As long as any dip forms a swing low above the lower cycle band, then the correct strategy is that the dip should be bought because stocks will continue in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Friday’s bullish reversal at support off the 50 day MA sets up for a daily cycle low to form. 

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 24.  That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low.  A  break above 93.09 forms a daily swing low.  A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend & will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher printing a new high on Friday, day 37.


 

Stocks are in their timing band for a seeking a DCL.  At this point a swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Equity Timing Band

Tuesday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low.

Stocks printed their daily cycle high last Thursday, day 31, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But stocks have since closed lower for 2 straight days, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 2450.02 forms a swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks are in a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. As long as stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band, then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. And under that scenario, the dip should be bought.

The transports have already confirmed their daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 31 for the transports daily cycle. That places them in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The transports have already formed a swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that they have entered their daily cycle decline. The transports have also been in a daily uptrend. They will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10/06/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday, setting up a potential move down into a daily cycle low.

Friday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing the dollar in its timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 93.60 will form a daily swing high. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

trend line

Stocks
stocks

Thursday’s new high on day 31 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for seeking out a daily cycle low. A swing high and trend line break will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 2540.02 would form a daily swing high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Change of Character

Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday, which was day 28. That locks in a right translated cycle formation and confirms that 8/21 hosted an intermediate cycle low.

With stocks locking in a right translated daily cycle formation that confirms that week 42 hosted the ICL. Which makes this week 5 for the new intermediate cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper weekly cycle band indicating a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

It is time to recognize a change in character for stocks. Back in March stocks declined into what looked like an intermediate cycle low. Stocks satisfied most of the parameters necessary for an intermediate cycle low aside from forming a failed daily cycle.

Our cycle band tool did correctly point to March hosting an ICL, as well as the recent ICL. We did not label an ICL in March because it did not form a failed daily cycle. But stocks just confirmed an ICL without a failed daily cycle…

I believe that this weekly uptrend is becoming so strong that we may not see a failed daily cycle until the weekly uptrend ends. Based on that I have re-labeled the March low as an intermediate cycle low which makes the recent ICL a 21 week ICL.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bullish Backtest

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

If stocks can deliver some bullish follow through then we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

Monday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks backtested the previous intermediate cycle top on Monday. If stocks deliver any bullish follow through that would indicate a successful backtest allowing us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that there are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 9/22/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar finally broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL.

The dollar’s highest point so far was Wednesday, day 8. If the dollar fails to break above Wednesday’s high of 92.50 then it will form another left translated daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday, day 21. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation and provides more evidence that August 21st hosted the ICL.

After printing a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, stocks drifted lower into Friday. But Friday’s bullish closed allowed stocks to remain above the 10 day MA. If a swing low forms then that would indicate that Thursday was a very mild half cycle low. If stocks continue lower and break below Wednesdays’ low of 2496.67 that will form a swing high to indicate the daily cycle decline. However, stocks remain locked in a daily uptrend so any dip is a buying opportunity. Stocks will continue it its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 9/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed it lowest point the previous Fri, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar failed this week to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

The status of the dollar’s daily cycle is unclear. Friday was either day 5 or day 31. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle, which would make Friday day 5. Unless that happens that means that the daily cycle is still declining into its daily cycle low making Friday day 31.

What is clear is that the dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

The new high on Friday, day 18, is shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

While stocks did not form a failed daily cycle as it printed the 8/21 low, all other evidence is indicating that the intermediate low has been set. Stocks are closing above the upper daily cycle band confirming the daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report