The 12/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. This indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday. At 12 days, that is too early to expect a DCL. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday. It is likely that this is a counter trend rally to back test the 50 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks delivered sell signals on Thursday. But breaking to a new high on Friday to negate the daily swing high.

Friday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. It also solidifies the daily cycle trend line. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Equity Sell Signal

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows above the lower daily cycle band. While stocks remain in their daily uptrend, they delivered some sell signals on Thursday.

After dipping into a half cycle low last week stocks broke out to a new high on Tuesday and Wednesday. However stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and printed a failed breakout which signals that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The divergent TSI along with the bearish TSI crossover are other signals that stocks are beginning their daily cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

Meanwhile the Miners continue to develop bullishly.

After the huge day on Wednesday it is not unexpected to see the Miners give back a little on Thursday. However, the Miners continue to develop bullishly as buyers stepped in once the Miners tagged the 10 day MA. That helps to further confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL. And this has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I discussed in Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.

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The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

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The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bullish Signals

Stocks were down again on Monday.

Monday was day 12 for the daily equity cycle. Despite printing two consecutive losses, stocks are still delivering bullish signals. The first bullish signal to point out is that stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that stocks are in a daily uptrend.

Stocks just printed back to back huge Buying on Weakness days. The large numbers printed on Friday and Monday look more like the type of numbers typically seen prior to an intermediate cycle low. Historically speaking, large Buying on Weakness numbers have been followed by stocks breaking higher.

The other thing to keep in mind is that stocks are also in their most bullish time of the year.

I think what happened is that stocks emerged out of the day 60 DCL and got overheated and got too stretched above the 10 day MA. So stocks needed to consolidate the gain. The large BOW numbers are signaling bullish interest. So the take away is that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. And the correct strategy in the daily uptrend is to buy the dip as we have seen with the day 60 DCL.

The 12/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, day 30. A swing low formed on Tuesday, setting up a possible daily cycle low.

Monday was day 30, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However, if the dollar breaks below the day 30 low of 92.43, that will extend the daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA after emerging from its daily cycle low.

Friday’s volatility caused stocks to back test the 10 day MA.

The large Buying on Weakness number indicates that Friday was a half cycle low. A swing low here will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Stocks printed their daily cycle low on November 15th. A swing low formed the next day to signal the new daily cycle. Last week stocks broke out to new highs, confirming the new daily cycle. On Monday stocks appeared to have stalled.

This actually resembles how stocks emerged from the August cycle low. Once stocks broke out to new highs on September 12th they stalled for close to 2 weeks, which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

We could be seeing a similar pattern develop here. The thing to keep in mind is that stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Clear & Convincing Evidence

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA to confirm that Tues was day 4 of the new daily cycle.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

We can also see the both the Transports & the Russell have convincingly confirmed new daily cycles.

Like stocks, both the Transports & the Russell printed their lowest cyclical points last Wednesday. They have now both formed swing lows and closed convincingly above their declining trend lines to confirm their new daily cycles.

Evidence of a Daily Cycle Low

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, following the day 54 peak. At 60 days, that placed stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks did form a swing low on Thursday, the 701 million selling on strength had us skeptical if a daily cycle low formed.

Stocks dropped on Friday to back tested the declining trend line. Stocks recovered on Monday. While they did not close back above the 10 day MA, stocks continue to develop bullishly. They are close to delivering a TSI bullish zero line crossover, which would provide more evidence that day 60 hosted the DCL.

The Advance-Decline did regain its 10 day MA. There is also a bullish divergence developing on the AD Line and they are leading stocks higher.

And the Semi’s have printed a new high. The Semi’s have been leading stocks and now that they have printed a new high, stocks likely to follow.

The 11/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 17. It printed is lowest on Wednesday, day 23, forming a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA.

The dollar is in its timing band for a DCL. It did form a swing low on Thursday, but broke lower on Friday. The dollar still needs to close back above the declining 10 day MA in order to confirm that day 23 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Friday so it does remain in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

After peaking on day 54 stocks broke lower, printing their lowest point on Wednesday. At 60 days, that places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday that broke above the declining trend line and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that day 60 was the daily cycle low.

We need to keep in mind that stocks printed a large SOS number on Thursday. The 701 million selling on strength is the type of number that will be printed prior to an intermediate cycle decline. It is certainly not the type of number the we typically see as stocks emerge from a daily cycle low. Stocks followed that up by closing back below the 10 day MA on Friday. The take away here is there is uncertainty of whether or not stocks still have more to correct or if stocks are preparing to form a left translated daily cycle. But for now, Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report