The 7/20/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a daily swing high on Friday to set up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar is in its 5th daily cycle, therefore we are expecting a left translated daily cycle formation. Friday’s close below the 10 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. A close below the 50 day MA will signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin the daily downtrend. It will also signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing high this week setting up a potential left translated daily cycle formation.

A close below the 10 day MA will signal that the daily cycle decline has begun. Stocks are currently in a weekly uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Swing High & Bearish Divergence

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Thursday.

Thursday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. A swing high on day 14 sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with our longer term view that stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline which we discussed here and here. Stocks are in their 4th daily cycle & which is another reason to expectant intermediate cycle decline. There is a bearish divergence developing on the TSI, which is something that we see a cycle tops. A close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline.

The 7/13/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the declining trend line and 10 day MA on Wednesday to confirm the new daily cycle.

This is the 5th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Therefore we are expecting a left translated daily cycle formation to trigger the intermediate cycle decline. Friday’s bearish reversal on day 4 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below 94.43 will form a daily swing high to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Friday, day 10.

While stocks printed a new high on Friday, there are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. The status of the intermediate cycle has us expecting a left translated daily cycle formation. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line would indicate that the daily cycle decline has begun. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bearish Signals Begin to Cluster

Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Tuesday.

Not only did stocks break out to a new daily cycle high, they also broke above the previous daily cycle high to continue the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. However, stocks also delivered another bearish signal on Tuesday.

Stocks printed 625 million Selling on Strength on Tuesday. This is the 3rd large SOS day since stocks printed their daily cycle low. And that gives me 2 concerns. First off it is not typical to see large Selling on Strength days early in a daily cycle. And second, we typically see a clustering of SOS days near cycle turning point. And while the daily cycle is only on day 7, the intermediate cycle is on week 22. That places stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. And these are the type of SOS days that are more associated with an intermediate cycle decline. So we need to be prepared for a left translated daily cycle formation that will lead to the intermediate cycle decline.

The 7/06/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar peaked on day 11. It formed a swing high, negating the break out. It closed below the 10 day MA, turning it lower to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar then closed below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 16 for the dollar’s daily cycle. While the dollar managed to find support at the rising 50 day MA, it is a bit early to expect a DCL to form. And with the dollar in its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline it is more likely to see the dollar break below the 50 day MA to continue its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the declining daily cycle trend line on Friday to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band. This ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. With this being week 21 for the intermediate cycle we need to watch for a left translated daily cycle formation.

The decline into the DCL caused stocks to close below the 10 week MA. But the rally into the new daily cycle allowed stocks to regain the 10 week MA. At 21 weeks, stocks are in their timing band for a intermediate cycle decline. A weekly swing high and break below the weekly trend line is needed to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Another Bearish Signal for Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 39, following the day 28 peak. That placed stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low. Then on Thursday they closed above both the 10 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

However, stocks delivered another bearish signal on Thursday.

Stocks printed another Selling on Strength day on Thursday. So far the 3 bullish days were also SOS days.

It is unusual to see these SOS days as stocks begin to rally out of a DCL. Taking a look at the rally out of the previous DCL we can see that stocks did not print a Selling on Strength day until day 14.

Currently, stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline, which is something that I will discuss in the Weekend Report.I believe that the clustering of these SOS days is a warning signal for the pending intermediate cycle decline.

Bearish Signal for Stocks

Stocks delivered another bearish signal on Monday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, following the day 28 peak. Thursday was day 39, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. While stocks have formed a swing low, we are still waiting on a break of the declining trend line to confirm that day 39 hosted the DCL.

But regardless if day 39 was the DCL, stocks delivered a second bearish signal on Monday. The first was the 523 million selling on strength that printed on Thursday. That was followed up by 216 million selling on strength on Monday. Usually we see selling on strength numbers near cycle tops. It is very unusual to see a SOS number at or near the cycle bottom, unless there is a longer term concern. Which in this case is that stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. This was something that I covered in the past weekend’s Weekend Report.

The 6/29/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Friday’s bull trap signals the daily cycle is in decline.

The dollar closed above the previous high on Thursday. But Friday’s huge bearish candle closed below the 10 day MA and manged to turn the 10 DMA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. While a new high on day 11 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation, the bull trap and huge sell off on Friday has me thinking that the dollar will form a failed daily cycle. Currently, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

On Friday, stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.


Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 39, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. While Friday’s swing low indicates a new daily cycle, stocks will need to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks have begun a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/29/18 Morning Report

Stocks have formed a swing low in overnight trading.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday following the day 28 peak. Thursday was day 39, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Therefore the swing low the formed in overnight trading has good odds of beginning the new daily cycle.

However stocks delivered a clear warning signal for this new daily cycle.

Stocks printed 523 million Selling on Strength on Thursday. We typically Selling on Strength numbers nearing cycle peaks, not cycle bottoms. Seeing this large SOS number on what potentially is the DCL is a warning signal which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework that stocks are declining into an intermediate cycle low. Stocks still need to complete their intermediate cycle decline (which I will detail in the Weekend Report). Therefore our expectation is to see a left translated daily cycle formation which will allow stocks to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Sizzling Summer Sale

The summer mark down for stocks have begun.

This is week 20 for the intermediate equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks formed a weekly swing high last week and are delivering bearish follow through this week. The best sale prices will coincide with the intermediate cycle low. Stocks should break below the weekly trend line and manage to turn the 10 week MA lower before it prints its intermediate cycle low.

Monday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle. So stocks are also in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Stocks could print a DCL this week. If so then stocks will likely need one more daily cycle to break below the weekly trend line and to turn the 10 week MA lower to complete the intermediate cycle decline.