The 4/28/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke below the previous DCL on Tuesday to form a failed daily cycle.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days. Tuesday, day 20, was the lowest point following the day 10 peak. So it is a bit early for a daily cycle low. But we will see on the weekly chart that the dollar has found support at the 50 week MA. (The weekly, yearly, 3 year, and 15 year super cycle is discussed in the Weekend Report) Therefore, a swing low and break of the daily cycle trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. The new high on day 21, shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to cool off. A break below the 10 day MA will signal that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Look Test

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Stocks broke above the declining daily cycle trend line on Monday and then delivered more bullish follow through on Tuesday.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on Tuesday shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are also beginning to close back again above the upper daily cycle band to reestablish its daily uptrend. All of this suggests that stocks are not just in a new daily cycle, but a new intermediate cycle as well.

However, many will be skeptical of such a labeling due to the fact that stocks did not form a failed daily cycle during the recent sell-off.

It is possible for an intermediate low to form absent of a failed daily cycle. While this is rare, one did occur back in 2013.

spx daily 2013

Back in 2013 stocks had a daily cycle decline that ran 23 days before printing its daily cycle low. Usually a daily cycle decline lasts 7 – 15 days.

spx weekly 2013

And the weekly chart back in 2013 passed the ‘look test’ for an intermediate decline. Stocks clearly broke below the weekly trend line and formed a weekly swing low to indicate a new intermediate cycle.

spx weeekly

And the current weekly chart also passes the look test. Stocks clearly broke below the weekly trend line as it declined into its week 21 low. Now stocks have delivered a clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line to signal that this is week 4 of the new intermediate cycle. And if I am correct that this is a new intermediate cycle then that should push the yearly cycle low out to late summer.

Trend Line Breaks

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The market delivered some trend line breaks on Monday.

Let’s begin with gold.

1 gld dialy

The daily gold cycle peaked on day 25. While a daily swing high formed the next day, gold essentially traded sideways until Monday when gold broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle is in decline. Gold has averaged about 33 days for its last 10 daily cycles. So with Monday being day 30 that places gold right in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. One possible scenario would be for gold to form a daily cycle low at the convergence of the 200 day and 50 day MA.

Bonds have a similar set up.

2 tlt daily

The daily bond cycle peaked on day 25 and formed a swing high two days later. Like gold, bonds did not break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm its daily cycle decline until Monday. The last 7 daily cycles have averaged 27 days so with Monday being day 9 that places bonds in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Once a swing low forms it would have good odds of marking a daily cycle low. Then a break above the declining trend line would confirm the new daily cycle.

So while both gold and bonds broke below their daily cycle trend lines, stocks broke convincingly above its daily cycle trend line.

3 spx daily

Stocks printed an extended 58 day, daily cycle low on March 27th. Emerging from the extended DCL, stocks breached the daily cycle trend line on day 7. However stocks did not deliver a clear and convincing trend line break until Monday. Monday was day 19 for the daily equity cycle. A break above the day 7 high of 2378.36 will shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. And if a right translated daily cycle forms, then we would need to reevaluate if 3/27 actually hosted an ICL.

The 4/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 10 peak. The swing low that formed on Friday signals an early daily cycle low.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days/cycle so we are expecting more downside to this daily cycle. However yearly chart* shows that the dollar is sitting right on the yearly cycle trend lineā€¦ which could act as support for a shortened daily cycle low. And if Thursday turns out to be the daily cycle low, then that would indicate that March 27th hosted the ICL.

*Editor’s note:
The weekly, yearly, 3 year and 15 year super cycle analysis is a regular part of the Weekend Report.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continue to be suppressed by the declining trend line.

The current daily cycle peaked on day 7. Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band last Friday, day 13. This signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL once 2322.25 is breached.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Its About Time …

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Stocks formed a daily swing low on Monday.

spx 1

Typically the daily equity cycle runs about 30 – 45 days from trough to trough. However, the previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here.

spx

Even though we are expecting a shortened daily cycle, 13 days would be really short. I would have more confidence of the possibility that Friday hosted an early DCL if stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low of 2333.25 on Friday. The reason is that stocks have been declining into an intermediate cycle low for the past 6 plus weeks. A failed daily cycle normally forms during the intermediate cycle decline. A break below 2322.25 will form a failed daily cycle. However, with stocks being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low, if stocks deliver a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line then we would be forced to recognize that a new intermediate cycle has begun.

Bonds have entered their timing band to seek out a DCL

tlt

The daily bond cycle peaked on Friday, day 23. A swing high formed on Monday. There is a bearish TSI divergence developing that we often see at cycle tops. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

Bonds have been closing above the upper daily cycle band, establishing a daily uptrend. We will watch for a DCL to form above the lower daily cycle band. If that happens then that will confirm that bonds are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 4/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a swing high and then closed below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Friday was day 13 for the daily dollar cycle. The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 33 days. So with a peak on day 10, this daily cycle is likely to form as a left translated daily cycle and continue the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday to indicate that stocks are declining into their daily cycle low.

Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals an end to the daily uptrend. It is also a reliable indicator that the intermediate cycle is in decline. The peak on day 7 locks in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below 2322.25 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle is in decline. And something to keep in mind is that the previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL next week.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 4/07/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The new high on Friday, day 9, begins to shift the likelihood towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar broke convincingly higher on Friday. The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band which signals an end to the daily downtrend and indicates that 3/27/17 hosted the ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke above the declining trend line this week to signal that day 58 hosted the DCL.

So far the rally out of the day 58 DCL has been weak. The bearish reversal on Wednesday, day 7, sets up the potential for an extremely left translated daily cycle formation. This is the 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. We are watching for a left translated daily cycle formation to set up a decline into the ICL. A break below 2322.25 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline. But there were two strong BOW days this week that signals that stocks will make one more push higher. A possible scenario would be a break higher to get everybody “on the wrong side of the boat”. Followed by the final decline into the ICL.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Looking for Evidence

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Stocks have formed a weekly swing low this week.

1 spx weekly swing

Last week stocks printed their lowest point following the week 17 peak. At 21 weeks, that places stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So while a swing low can signal a new intermediate cycle, I do not believe that the evidence supports that week 21 hosted an ICL.

spx

Stocks broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to signal that day 58 was a daily cycle low. One of the reasons that I doubt that day 58 hosted an ICL is that the rally so far has been timid. Normally out of an ICL stocks can rally anywhere for 5 – 8% over the first week or so, which has not happened here. Stocks also have formed a bearish TSI zero line crossover. That is a signal that we typically see as stocks start to roll over into a daily cycle decline.

spx weekly

So I suspect that the weekly swing low that has formed is only setting the declining trend line. Rejection by the declining trend line should send stocks into their final decline into their intermediate cycle low. Stocks would need to break below the week 21 ow of 2322.25 in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Setting Course

Last Monday, March 27th, stocks printed their lowest point following the day 40 peak. They have since formed a daily swing low and regained the 10 day MA to signal that stocks have begun a new daily cycle.

Monday was day 5 for the new daily cycle. And because this is the third daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle we need to be suspicious off a possible left translated cycle formation that will lead to a failed daily cycle and an intermediate cycle decline.

spx tline

We are still waiting on a break of the declining (blue) trend line to provide final confirmation that day 58 hosted the DCL. If stocks can form a swing low forms off of Monday’s candle that will allow us to construct the (dashed) daily cycle trend line. At this early stage of the daily cycle stocks should not break below the dashed daily cycle trend line. A break below the dashed trend line will be the warning signal to wait on the sidelines

The 4/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the peak on day 19. Wednesday’s close above the declining 10 day MA signaled a new daily cycle.

While the previous daily cycle peaked on day 19 for a right translated cycle formation, it printed a lower high. And Monday’s break below the previous DCL establishes a pattern of lower lows. That signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday. A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks are beginning their 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. And stocks are in their timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline. What we need to watch is the translation of the new daily cycle. A left translated cycle formation would signal that stocks are declining into its intermediate cycle low.

Stocks remained above the lower daily cycle band is it declined into the day 58 low. Therefore stocks remain in a daily uptrend and will continue in their daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report