Sinister Swing High

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We discussed on Saturday how stocks peaked on day 21, formed a swing high and then breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday setting up for a daily cycle decline.

Stocks delivered a clear and convincing trend line break on Tuesday, confirming that the daily cycle is in decline.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that something more sinister is afoot. I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which will confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

spx weekly buy op

Tuesday’s daily cycle trend line break has caused stocks to form a weekly swing high. At 34 weeks stocks are very late in its weekly cycle and due for an intermediate decline. Stocks are currently sitting right on the weekly trend line. If stocks continue their daily cycle decline they will break below the weekly trend line signaling that the weekly cycle is in decline. And in the Weekend Report I plan to tie this in with the status of the yearly cycle.

The 6/23/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point the preceding week on Thursday, day 54. The dollar has since formed a swing low and closed consistently above the 10 day MA signaling a new daily cycle.

The dollar still needs to close above the declining trend line to confirm that Friday was day 6 of the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will continue until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks peaked on Monday, day 21. Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday then breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday setting up for a daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 25, placing stocks 5 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. A clear and convincing break of the daily cycle trend line is needed to confirm the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which confirms that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The huge Selling on Strength number from Friday supports this possible scenario.

Stocks printed 783 million SOS on Friday. This is the type of SOS number that is associated with an intermediate cycle top.

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Stocks Deliver a Bearish Signal

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Stocks formed a daily swing high on Tuesday.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 22 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks formed a swing high off the day 21 peak. A break below the daily cycle trend line will signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Usually a peak on day 21, or thereafter, assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which confirms that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

spx weekly

This is week 33 for the intermediate cycle. The weekly cycle is stretched and overdue for an intermediate cycle decline. So confirmation of the daily cycle decline could trigger the intermediate cycle decline as well.

The 6/16/17 Weekend Report preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar undercut the day 49 low, extending the daily cycle out to day 54. The dollar formed a daily swing low on Thursday indicating that day 54 hosted the DCL.

54 days places the dollar very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Still, the dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has been closing below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Day 15 remains as the daily cycle high keeping alive the possibility of a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for the past two plus weeks. The bearish divergence developing on the momentum oscillators indicate a bearish resolution to the consolidation. A break below the day 15 low of 2415.70 will form a daily swing high and indicating a left translated cycle formation. Stocks remain in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 6/09/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a daily swing low this week.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 49, placing the dollar very deep into its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Thursday. The dollar continued higher on Friday to close above the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued to close above the upper daily cycle band this past week which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Even though stocks printed a new high on Friday, stocks closed lower on the day. Friday’s bearish close may indicate a daily cycle top. If so, a peak on day 15 would signal a left translated daily cycle formation that would lead into an intermediate cycle decline. A break below 2415.70 foms a daily swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA should send stocks into their daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/02/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Since the dollar printed its yearly cycle low in May, 2016 — 5 of the previous 7 daily dollars cycles were 30 days or longer. Four of them stretching past 36 days.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, stretching the current daily cycle out to day 46. At this point, a daily swing low and a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher last week.

Friday was day 10 for the daily equity cycle and stocks again printed a new high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless then close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 5/26/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 10 peak. Monday was day 38, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday. A close above the 10 day MA will signal that day 38 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed at an all time high on Friday.

Stocks broke above the previous daily cycle high on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday. This confirmst that Friday was day 6 for the new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate that they are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in the daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 5/19/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar continued lower this week.

While Friday could be day 8, since 5 of the previous 7 dollar daily cycles stretched 30 days or longer makes it likely that Friday was day 37. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. At this point a swing low has good odds of marking the DCL, The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday to indicate that Thursday hosted the daily cycle low.

A break of the declining trend line is normally used to confirm the new daily cycle. However the recovery on Thursday and Friday following Wednesday’s steep sell off does not allow for the construction of a declining trend line. Since stocks faded into the close on Friday, I would like to see a close above the upper daily cycle band before labeling Thursday as the daily cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Turning Points

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Following the big drop on Wednesday, stocks closed higher on Thursday.

spx

The daily equity cycle peaked on Tuesday, day 35, then dropped over 1.8% on Wednesday to close below the lower daily cycle band to confirm the daily cycle decline. While stocks printed a lower low, they did close higher on Thursday. At 37 days, stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The higher close helps to ease the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 2375.74 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. I would like to see a close back above the 50 day MA before we label day 37 as the daily cycle low.

Gold also reversed on Thursday.

gld

Thursday was day 7 for the daily gold cycle. While gold printed a higher high, gold closed lower on the day, easing the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 1246.20 will form a daily swing high. A close below both the 200 MA and the 50 day MA would signal that the daily cycle decline has begun. Cycles usually print a left translated, failed daily cycle in order to complete its intermediate cycle decline. A peak on day 7 would indicate a left translated cycle formation signaling that gold is continuing with its intermediate cycle decline. Gold would need to break below the previous daily cycle low of 1214.30 to form a failed daily cycle.

Taking a Look at Stocks

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Stocks broke out to a new high on Monday. So let’s take a closer look at both the daily and weekly cycles.

spx

Stocks peaked on day 30. Stocks then formed a swing high and broke clearly below the daily cycle trend line to print its lowest point on Thursday, day 32. That placed stocks in the early part of their timing band for a daily cycle low. Normally a daily cycle decline lasts 7 to 15 days which causes the RSI to become oversold. But with stocks in a daily and weekly uptrend, this may be all the correction we will see for the daily cycle decline. Therefore we will label Monday day 2 for the new daily cycle.

spx weekly

The weekly cycle peaked on week 17 and then printed its lowest point on week 21. That does place stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. But week 21 lacks 2 key things that normally accompany an intermediate cycle low.

The first thing is that stocks did not print a failed daily cycle as it declined into the week 21 low. The other missing criteria is that the weekly RSI did not get oversold. Normally a decline into an intermediate cycle low sees the weekly RSI become oversold. There is one more troubling thing about labeling week 21 as an ICL and that is the bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. Stocks are at an all time high but the bearish divergences suggests that decline into the ICL still needs to occur. So unless I see compelling evidence develop I will label this week as week 28 for the intermediate equity cycle.