The 11/16/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar recovered the 50 day MA on the previous week but lost the 50 day MA on Friday.

The dollar peaked on day 17 then formed a swing high on Thursday. The dollar delivered bearish follow through on Friday by closing below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA signaling the daily cycle decline. The dollar’s inability to maintain the breakout above the 50 day MA signals trouble for the dollar. Currently the dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

After consolidating below the 3100 level stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 31 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The new high on day 31 locks in a right translated cycle formation, which gives us the expectation for stocks to print a higher daily cycle low. At this point a swing high and a close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 11/02/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The peak day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with the dollar being in a daily downtrend. Closing below the 200 day MA signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. A break below the day 26 low of 96.89 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks gapped higher on Monday.

Stocks then coiled though Thursday, backing filling the gap and allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Then stocks broke out to a new high on Friday. The new high on day 21 locks in right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. The swing low that formed on Friday indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Break Out To New Highs

Stocks broke out to all times highs on Monday.

Monday was day 17 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 17 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Notice that there are bearish divergences beginning to appear on the oscillators as stocks are starting to get a bit stretched above the 10 day MA. With stocks at all time highs we need to be alert that Wednesday’s FOCMC meeting could trigger some profit taking. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remaining their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Bullish Progress

Stocks closed marginally lower on Tuesday.

Stocks did break out to new highs before closing lower on the day. Stocks made another test of the upper stem of the weekly triangle consolidation. We can also see that the 10 week MA is turning higher, which is a sign that week 17 did host the ICL. As we discussed yesterday, a break above the upper stem of the weekly triangle pattern will haves label week 17 as the intermediate cycle low.

Bullish Expectation

On my 10/13 report we discussed how stocks had just formed a weekly swing low.

The weekly swing low was an indication that stocks formed an early intermediate cycle low.

Stocks have since progressed higher. A break above the upper stem of the weekly triangle pattern will haves label week 17 as the intermediate cycle low.

The Financials did break above the upper stem of their triangle consolidation.

The Financials breaking above the upper stem of their triangle consolidation aligns with our bullish expectation.

The 10/19/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 25 to place it in the its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar did break below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report we will look at weekly chart and see that this is week 16 for the intermediate cycle, which is early to expect an ICL. Therefore it it possible to see a swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA next week to signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on day 6 and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and will probably need several days to cool off in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Closing above the upper daly cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 10/12/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Friday.

Friday was day 20 for the daily dollar cycle, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. This is the first time that the dollar closed below the 50 day MA since it regained the 50 day MA back in July. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Taken together they indicate that the dollar is not only in its daily cycle decline, but the intermediate cycle decline has also begun.

Stocks

Stocks printed its lowest point on day 42, which placed them in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Thursday. Then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm Friday as day 6 of the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain so unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Volatility

Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA on Friday. In real time it looked as if day 42 was the daily cycle low. But after being rejected by the 10 day MA on Monday and delivering bearish follow through on Tuesday, the status of the daily equity cycle is uncertain.

Stocks could be entering another period of volatility, similar to August, where stocks churned below the 50 day MA. Stocks need to do one of two things to clarify the status of the daily cycle.

Scenario 1 – Day 42 was not the daily cycle low.
Since stocks have not closed above the 10 day MA nor have they broke above the declining trend line then it is still possible that stocks are seeking their daily cycle low. Therefore if stocks continue lower and break below the day 42 low that would extend the daily cycle decline.

Scenario 2 – Day 42 was the daily cycle low.
If day 42 was the daily cycle low then stocks would need stocks reverse once again and break above the declining daily cycle trend line which would confirm the new daily cycle.

Change of Expectations

Cycle analysis allows us to develop an on-going framework of expectations. Confirmation of our framework of expectations allows us to determine the risk of an asset. When our framework of expectations are not met, then we need to determine why and then possibly change our expectations.

Stocks closed below the 50 day MA on Tuesday and then delivered bearish follow through on Wednesday to set stocks up for a bloodbath phase, which can last 5 to 7 days. It appears that the Fed intervened to on Thursday to prevent the bloodbath phase with stocks printing a bullish reversal on Thursday. This was a change of expectations that has ramifications on the longer term, intermediate cycle. Thursday was day 42, placing stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks formed a swing low on Friday and closed above the 50 day MA to indicate a new daily cycle.

In my special report, A Change of Expectations, I will discuss this change from our framework of expectations. We will look at both the daily and weekly charts and how this change impacts our framework of expectations going forward.

The Miners were also set up to decline into an intermediate cycle low. Instead, they printed a bullish weekly reversal. So, I also plan to discuss how the Miners did not follow through on expectations this week and will look at how this can play out going forward.

I would like to make this Special Report available here. The Special Report, A Change of Expectations, and a complementary 6 week subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $20.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney A Change of Expectations Special Report and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Bullish Reversal

Stocks filled 2 more lower gaps on Wednesday then formed a bullish reversal on Thursday.

Thursday was day 42 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks well within their timing band for a daily cycle low. The odds are good that if a swing low forms, that it will mark the daily cycle low. A break above 2911.13 will form a swing low. In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss where stocks are in their longer term, intermediate cycle.