Closer To A Top Than A Bottom

Stocks broke out a new daily cycle high on Monday.

Monday was day 16 for the daily equity cycle. While stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high there are signs that signal caution. One of the signs that emerge as a cycle nears its peak is the bearish divergence developing on the oscillators.

Another signal is the clustering of Sell on Strength days.

6 of the past 11 trading days stocks have printed a large Selling on Strength numbers. The clustering SOS days often precede a cycle decline.

In the Weekend date we discussed how the previous intermediate cycle was really stretched. And since cycles often balance out, we suspect that this intermediate cycle may be short. Which raises the possibility of that this daily cycle may left translate to begin its intermediate cycle decline.

Big money tends to sell into a breakout to a new high. If stocks print a reversal and break below the daily cycle trend line that would lock in a left translated daily cycle formation and indicate that stocks are beginning their intermediate cycle decline.

The 3/30/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and continued higher, turning the 10 day MA higher to confirm that day 14 printed an early DCL.

The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday and again on Friday. This ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band following a failed daily cycle also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set …

Stocks

There has been an increase in volatility over the past two weeks for stocks.

Friday was day 15 for the daily equity cycle. The current cycle high of day 9 sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. Stocks remain firmly in a daily uptrend but the clustering of Selling on Strength days is a warning signal of an approaching intermediate cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 3/01/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar


The dollar regained the 50 day MA on Wednesday and formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar also broke above the declining trend line and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday. All of which confirms that Thursday was the DCL. The dollar continues to be in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks negated the swing high by closing back above the 2800.18 resistance level.

Closing above the 2800 level is a bullish signal for technical traders. But at 45 days, stocks are in their timing band for a DCL. And stocks printed 716 million Selling on Strength on Friday. This signals caution. A swing high followed by a close below the 10 day MA should send stocks to seek out their DCL. The new high on Friday, day 45, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Once the daily cycle decline begins, if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 2/15/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday.

We discussed how the 97 level was a resistance level for the dollar. The dollar had four attempts to close above it and was soundly rejected by it on Friday. This has me expecting the dollar to now decline into its daily cycle low. Since the previous daily cycle was shortened we could see an extended daily cycle form here, which would make it likely to see a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar has not yet completed its yearly cycle decline. A left translated daily cycle formation would align with the dollar completing its yearly cycle decline. And a left translated daily cycle formation would indicate that this is week 21 for the intermediate dollar cycle.

A complete breakdown of the dollar’s daily, weekly, yearly and multi year cycles can be found in the Weekend Report.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the 200 day MA on Friday.

Friday was day 35, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline. And stocks continue to print large SOS days. Now 11 of the preceding 16 days printed strong Selling on Strength numbers.

* Stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle decline.
* Stocks continue to print SOS numbers which are harbingers that a cycle decline is imminent.
* Bearish divergences are developing on the oscillators which typically precede a cycle decline.

Once a swing high forms it will likely send stocks into their daily cycle decline. But stocks are in a daily uptrend. once the cycle decline begins, if the swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band that will mean that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and that would trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Continue to Deliver Sell Signals

Despite stocks being up on Friday and Monday, stocks continue to deliver sell signals.

Monday was day 31 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Over the past 13 trading days there have been 9 Selling on Strength days. Usually when there is a clustering of SOS days when stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low, a decline into the DCL soon follows.

The 2/08/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar confirmed a new daily cycle.

The dollar has rallied off of support from the 200 day MA to close above the 10 day MA and turned it higher. It also managed to close above the 50 day MA confirming day 14 as an early DCL. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. It also indicates the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle.

Stocks

Stocks ran into resistance at the 200 day MA and turned lower.

Stocks formed a swing high and did break below the daily cycle trend line to indicate that the daily cycle decline has begun. Friday was day 30, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The over 3240 million in Selling on Strength prior to the daily cycle peak has me expecting a deeper correction. Stocks should close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower before printing its daily cycle low. But stocks printed a bullish reversal on Friday. If stocks form a swing low here that would trigger a cycle band buy signal. A close back above the 200 day MA would indicate that day 30 was a half cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bearish Signals Accumulate

Bearish signals continue to accumulate for stocks.

We discussed here how there have been 7 Selling on Strength days leading up to the daily cycle peak with over 3.2 billion in selling on strength. This type of clustering of large SOS numbers has been a reliable indicator of a pending daily cycle decline.

Other bearish indicators include stocks forming a swing high as they are being turned lower at the 200 day MA. Stocks have also closed below the daily cycle trend line and have breached the 10 day MA. There is also a bearish divergence developing on the True Strength Indicator along with a bearish TSI crossover. Given all of the above along with stocks being just one day shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low all point to an imminent daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline.

Sell Signals Accumulate

Stocks printed a higher high on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks three days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle decline. While stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high, there are sell signals that are beginning to accumulate.

Over the past 10 trading days there have been 7 Selling on Strength days. Usually when there is a clustering of SOS days when stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low then a cycle decline is imminent.

The 1/25/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Friday.

The dollar was halted by the 50 day MA on Thursday. Friday’s swing high caused the dollar to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar has been in a daily downtrend. Friday’s swing high formed below the upper daily cycle band to indicate a continuation of the daily downtrend.

Stocks

Stocks have begun a new daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks closed above the 50 day MA the previous week. Then back tested the convergence of the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA this week. Since this is a new intermediate cycle we are expecting this daily cycle to right translate. With Friday being day 20, a break above the day 16 high of 2675.47 will shift the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

However there are some concerns that are developing. Stocks printed a large 624 million Selling on Strength on on Thursday. That was followed by 481 million Selling on Strength on Friday. There are also bearish divergences that are beginning to emerge on the oscillators. A break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Is The Multi-Year Low In?

I think that there is no doubt that stocks declined into a multi year low.

As evidenced above, we had a bearish spike lower in the NYHL that also occurred at previous 4 year lows, confirming the decline into a multi-year low.

The real question is — is still some downside or did stocks print their multi-year low?

Three concerns that the multi-year low has not yet formed.
1) Timing Band for Multi-Year Low
2) Stocks began a monthly downtrend.
3) 2.7 billion SOS early after the cycle low.

1. Multi- year lows normally form every 44 months and December was only month 34

2. Stocks closed below the lower monthly cycle band – beginning a monthly downtrend.


3. During the first 5 days of the rally stocks had 2.7 billion selling on strength.
Times that stocks printed these type of numbers after emerging out of a cycle low lead to lower lows …

However evidence that the 4 year low is in.

1) Alternating multi-year cycle lengths
2) Monthly RSI has already turned higher
3) NHYL bullish cross

1. The multi-year equity cycle tends to alternate a long cycle with a short cycle.
And stocks could be due for a shortened multi-year cycle.

2. Monthly RSI has turned up already.
During an uptrend, RSI does not stay oversold for very long. And as we can see, the monthly RSI has already turned higher.

3. NYHL bullish cross
As we noted the first chart, the NYHL has spiked down to a level that has only been seen at previous multi-year cycle lows. The NYHL has not only recovered, but has delivered a bullish cross above the declining trend line.

Here is what we need to see to confirm that the multi-year low is in.
* Regaining the 200 day MA
* Right translating the new intermediate (weekly) cycle
* Closing above the upper monthly cycle band.