Worse Case Scenario

Stocks broke bearishly out of the megaphone topping pattern this week. 

Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.  Rejection by the lower trend line will indicate a continuation of the daily downtrend and trigger a cycle band sell signal.

However, this may be the best buying opportunity of the year.   In the Weekend Report I take a look at the bigger picture for stocks. I discuss where stocks are in their daily weekly and yearly cycles. And why I believe that the best opportunity for gains for the year is still in front of us. 

I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15 this week — which I will extend through Sunday night. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. click here.

Riding The Storm Out

Stocks gave a sell signal on Friday and delivered bearish follow though on Monday.

Stocks needed to close above the 10 day MA and turn it higher to confirm that day 22 was the DCL. Instead, stocks broke lower on Monday. Breaking lower signals a continuation of the daily cycle decline which would make Monday — day 29. Stocks will likely need to break below the day 22 low of 4114.65 in order to complete their daily cycle decline.

Stocks Deliver Sell Signal

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday.

Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend that is characterized by highs forming below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal. The peak on day 7 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle.

Miner Smackdown

The Miners got smacked down on Thursday.

The Miners formed a swing high on Thursday. They failed to make a higher high and now have closed below the 50 day MA. A peak on day 8 sets up the Miners for a left translated daily cycle formation which signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

Miner Rejection At the 50 MA

The Miners were rejected by the 50 day MA on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 8 for the daily cycle. A peak on day 8 would indicate a left translated daily cycle formation. Which aligns with the Miners currently being in a daily downtrend. If the Miners form a swing high below the upper daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily downtrend and trigger a cycle band sell signal. A break below 31.07 will form a daily swing high.

Stocks Need To Cross The Line

While stocks closed above the 10 day MA last week to signal a new daily cycle …

…stocks still need to close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 31 was the DCL. Instead, stocks formed a lower swing high on Monday. Stocks are currrenrlty in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

Stocks Lose The 10 Day MA

We discussed on Monday that one of the confirmations of a DCL is turning the 10 day MA higher. On Tuesday, stocks lost the 10 day MA and turned it lower.

Stocks needed to turn the 10 day MA higher and break above the declining trend line in order to confirm that day 21 was the DCL. Instead, losing the 10 da y MA in a clear and convincing manner signals a continuation of the daily cycle decline — making Tuesday day 27. Stocks should go on to break below the day 21 low of 4305.91 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

The 9/10/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 25, placing it in its timing band for a DCL.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday then closed above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle. However the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Thursday, forming a swing high. The dollar remained contained by the 50 day MA on Friday. If the dollar delivers bearish follow through that would signal the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers cycle band sell signal.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday, then delivered bearish follow through Thursday and Friday to signal the daily cycle decline.

The peak on day 10 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. At 27 weeks, stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 4367.73 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Oil Downtrend

Oil peaked on day 8 then formed a lower swing high on Friday. The peak on day 8 sets oil up for a left translated daily cycle formation.

Friday’s swing high formed below the upper daily cycle band. Oil is in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a daily cycle band sell signal. Oil should go on to break below the day 14 low of 65.01 as it seeks out its DCL. Monday was only on day 19. Oil could trend lower for another 2 to 4 weeks to place the daily cycle in its timing band for a DCL.,

The 6/05/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Friday.

Friday was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Friday’s bearish reversal sets the dollar up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A swing high and close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend and trigger a daily cycle sell signal. A break below 90.01 will form a daily swing high.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

The rally out of the day 48 DCL did see stocks become stretched above the 10 day MA. Thursday’s bullish reversal allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. A break above the day 13 high will have us label day 15 as the half cycle low.

Since mid April, stocks have been consolidating, building up energy.

After consolidating for the past 2 months, a break out to new highs should lead to a bullish trending move.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report