Stocks Need To Cross The Line

While stocks closed above the 10 day MA last week to signal a new daily cycle …

…stocks still need to close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 31 was the DCL. Instead, stocks formed a lower swing high on Monday. Stocks are currrenrlty in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

Stocks Lose The 10 Day MA

We discussed on Monday that one of the confirmations of a DCL is turning the 10 day MA higher. On Tuesday, stocks lost the 10 day MA and turned it lower.

Stocks needed to turn the 10 day MA higher and break above the declining trend line in order to confirm that day 21 was the DCL. Instead, losing the 10 da y MA in a clear and convincing manner signals a continuation of the daily cycle decline — making Tuesday day 27. Stocks should go on to break below the day 21 low of 4305.91 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

The 9/10/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 25, placing it in its timing band for a DCL.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday then closed above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle. However the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Thursday, forming a swing high. The dollar remained contained by the 50 day MA on Friday. If the dollar delivers bearish follow through that would signal the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers cycle band sell signal.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday, then delivered bearish follow through Thursday and Friday to signal the daily cycle decline.

The peak on day 10 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. At 27 weeks, stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 4367.73 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

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Oil Downtrend

Oil peaked on day 8 then formed a lower swing high on Friday. The peak on day 8 sets oil up for a left translated daily cycle formation.

Friday’s swing high formed below the upper daily cycle band. Oil is in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a daily cycle band sell signal. Oil should go on to break below the day 14 low of 65.01 as it seeks out its DCL. Monday was only on day 19. Oil could trend lower for another 2 to 4 weeks to place the daily cycle in its timing band for a DCL.,

The 6/05/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Friday.

Friday was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Friday’s bearish reversal sets the dollar up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A swing high and close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend and trigger a daily cycle sell signal. A break below 90.01 will form a daily swing high.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

The rally out of the day 48 DCL did see stocks become stretched above the 10 day MA. Thursday’s bullish reversal allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. A break above the day 13 high will have us label day 15 as the half cycle low.

Since mid April, stocks have been consolidating, building up energy.

After consolidating for the past 2 months, a break out to new highs should lead to a bullish trending move.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 5/15/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

Despite the dollar’s convincing rally on Wednesday, the dollar remains contained by the declining 10 day MA.

If the dollar delivered bullish follow through to Wednesday’s swing low then we may have needed to label Tuesday as an extended daily cycle low. However the dollar was contained by the declining 10 day MA on Thursday and formed a swing high on Friday. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high on Friday indicates that the dollar remains in its daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 48. That places them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s swing low closed back above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Forming the swing low above the lower daily cycle band indicates that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.


The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 1/23/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar was being squeezed by the declining 50 day MA and the rising 10 day MA until Thursday.

The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday, setting up a left translated daily cycle formation. A close below the lower daily cycle band indicate the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. The swing high indicates that the dollar will continue in its daily downtrend a signals a cycle band sell signal. This would align with a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks have not delivered anything that we could recognize as a DCL. Stocks have been stair stepping higher and then consolidating in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday then broke out above the (green) consolidation box on Wednesday. Stocks ended the week backtesting the recent consolidation box.

And a swing low off of Friday’s candle will indicate that breakout continues to advance.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 11/14/20 Weekend Report Preview

The 11/14/20 Weekend Report

Posted on 

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 13. With all of the currency manipulation it is certainly possible that day 13 was an early DCL.

However, the dollar remains contained by the declining 10 day MA. Any bearish follow through will continue the daily cycle decline. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high it will remain in its daily downtrend and trigger a cycle band sell signal. A break below 92.59 will from a. daily swing high.

Stocks

Despite Monday’s bearish reversal, stocks remain in a daily uptrend.

Stocks did have a false breakout in early September. Monday’s bearish reversal looked like stocks once again formed a false breakout. However, stocks printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday at the neckline support. Stocks backtested the neckline support on Thursday then formed a swing low on Friday. A break above Monday’s high of 3645.99 would mean that a bubble scenario is back on the table.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Keep Chugging Along

Stocks gave a sell signal on Friday.

Friday was day 28 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks 2 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. So closing below both the 10 day MA and the daily cycle trend line on Friday signaled the beginning of the daily cycle decline.

But stocks negated that signal on Monday.

Stocks formed a swing low and closed back above the 10 day MA on Monday to negate Friday’s swing low. So stocks will need to form another swing high and close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Until then, stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks Break Lower

While stocks did form a swing low on Thursday, they were contained by the double resistance of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday.

Then stocks broke lower on Monday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 44, placing them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. We needed to see a close above those two moving averages for confirmation of a new daily cycle. Instead stocks were rejected by the convergence of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA. And with stocks forming a swing high on Monday that signals a cycle band sell signal. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.