Energy Bouncing Back

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Back on July 3rd we discussed how there were bullish developments beginning to emerge in the energy sector. Even though XLE managed to print a lower low there continue to be bullish developments that signal the low is nigh.

xle

XLE breached the declining 50 day MA on day 8. However XLE proceeded to break lower to undercut the day 33 low only to form a bullish reversal on Friday. XLE has since formed a swing low and delivered bullish follow through which signals that Friday hosted either a shortened 11 day, DCL or a stretched 44 day DCL. The bullish divergences on the oscillators align with a DCL printing on Friday. At this point we need to see a clear and convincing break above the declining 50 day MA to confirm that the undercut low hosted the daily cycle low.

Natgas also formed an undercut low last week.

natgas

NATGAS broke below the previous DCL last Wednesday. In real time this looked as if Natgas formed a failed daily cycle. But Tuesday’s rally makes it look like last Wednesday hosted an undercut low and extended the daily cycle out to day 54. A clear and convincing close above the declining trend line will confirm that Natgas is in a new daily cycle.

While oil did not form an undercut low, it did look like it was in trouble last week.

oil

Oil was soundly rejected by the declining 50 day MA last Wednesday. Coupled that with oil closing below both the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band on Friday made it look as if oil was forming left translated daily cycle. However, oil printed a reversal on Monday and then delivered bullish follow through forming a swing low on Tuesday. That allows us to construct a daily cycle trend line. As long as oil remains above the daily cycle trend line then it will continue to develop bullishly.

Energy Looking Bullish

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It looks as if Energy turned a corner.

xle_daily

We discussed on Sunday how XLE has been caught in the grip of a punishing daily downtrend. On Monday XLE closed above the declining trend line to signal that day 10 hosted an early DCL. Shorten daily cycles are more likely to occur at the tail end of an extended sell off due to exhaustion of bears. And that is what appears to be happening with XLE.

bpener

Another bullish signal occurred with the BPENER. Monday the BPENER delivered bullish follow through to last week’s close above the 50 day MA.

In my Special Energy Update that I posted on Sunday I take look at the energy sector and discuss the weekly charts for NATGAS, Oil, Uranium and XLE as well as the yearly chart for XLE.

Perhaps you would like to integrate cycle analysis into your trading. This week I am offering a special 4th of July Trial Subscription. The trial subscription includes the Special Energy Update as well as 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Services for $15.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Special Energy Update
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

The ideal time to buy is at a cycle low.
* There are 4 cycle lows that I cover:
– The daily cycle low
– The intermediate (weekly) cycle low
– The yearly cycle low
– the multi-year cycle low

My goal is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.
So please click here for the Special Energy Update & 6 week trial subscription.

Energy Update

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There were some bullish developments in the Energy Sector last week.
After lengthy sell offs NATGAS, Oil, and Uranium all confirmed new daily cycles last week.

2_bpener_daily

And the Energy Sector Bullish Percent Index closed above the declining 50 day MA.
However there is still a question if XLE has printed its daily cycle low.

1_xle_daily

XLE has been caught in the grip of a punishing daily downtrend. But bullish signals are beginning to emerge.

XLE formed a swing low off the 6/21 low and closed above the bearish trend line. Along with the huge TSI bullish divergence indicates that 6/21 hosted an early DCL. I would like to see a close above the declining 50 day MA confirm the new daily cycle.

In my Special Energy Update I will take a closer look at the energy sector. We will look at the weekly charts for NATGAS, Oil, Uranium and XLE as well as the yearly chart for XLE.

Perhaps you would like to integrate cycle analysis into your trading. This week I am offering a special 4th of July Trial Subscription. The trial subscription includes the Special Energy Update as well as 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Services for $15.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Special Energy Update
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

The ideal time to buy is at a cycle low. 
* There are 4 cycle lows that I cover:
– The daily cycle low
– The intermediate (weekly) cycle low
– The yearly cycle low
– the multi-year cycle low

My goal is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.
So please click here for the Special Energy Update & 6 week trial subscription.

Natural Gas Low

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NATGAS confirmed a new daily cycle on Monday.

natgas

The NATGAS daily cycle peaked just below the 50 day MA last Monday, which was day 13. A swing high then formed sending NATGAS into its daily cycle decline. NATGAS printed its lowest point on Friday. At 17days that places NATGAS in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. NATGAS formed a swing low on Monday that closed above the 50 day MA. NATGAS also closed above the upper daily cycle band which signals that the February low hosted the intermediate cycle low and that Monday was day 1 for the 2nd daily cycle.

I routinely cover both the daily and intermediate cycles for Natural Gas in the Mid-Week Update and in the Weekend Update.

Possible Miner Low

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The Miners plunged over 16% last week. And they started off Monday with more selling. But that soon reversed.

gdx daily

Monday was day 24 for the daily Miner cycle. 24 days places the Miners right in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal eased the parameters for forming a daily cycle low. A break above 21.76 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

NATGAS also appears to have formed a minor low.

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NATGAS printed is lowest point on Wednesday, day 27, which placed NATGAS is in its timing band for a DCL. NATGAS closed above the day 27 low on Monday to form a daily swing low. NATGAS also closed above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.

The 10/13/16 Morning Report

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Stocks appear to be rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline.
Gold and the Miners are resisting the bullish dollar advance and appear to have bottomed.
So this morning I want to take a look at NATGAS.

1 NGS weekly

While NATGAS continues to close above the upper weekly cycle band signaling that NATGAS is continuing in its weekly uptrend we can see that NATGAS is running into resistance at the 200 week MA.

2 ntgs 200

The 200 week MA is has demonstrated to be a major support/resistance area where rarely does price break through on the first try. As NATGAS emerged from the last 3 year cycle low the 200 week MA managed to cause a decline into an intermediate cycle low.

3 ntgas daily

NATGAS formed a daily swing high on Wednesday. NATGAS maybe consolidating to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. But what is developing on the weekly chart suggest a left translated cycle formation is a possibility. A close below the upper daily cycle band will signal a left translated daily cycle formation that could lead into an intermediate cycle decline.

Looking for a NATGAS Daily Cycle Low

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NATGAS closed below the upper daily cycle band on Thursday to begin its daily cycle decline.

natgas daily

NATGAS printed its lowest point on Monday, day 18, following its day 10 peak . That places NATGAS in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal that formed on Monday eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 2.94 forms a swing low and then an accompanying declining trend line break will confirm a new daily cycle.

NATGAS is in a daily uptrend. If a daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band then it will maintain its daily uptrend. NATGAS will remain in a daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Energy Update

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NATGAS appears to have left behind a daily cycle low.

natgas

NATGAS printed its lowest point on Wednesday following the day 10 peak. Wednesday was day 17 for its daily cycle, which places NATGAS on the early end of its timing band for a daily cycle low. NATGAS formed a swing low, gaining a big 4.86% on the day. A break of the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

You will notice that NATGAS closed above the upper daily cycle band as it rallied into its day 10 peak. During the decline, NATGAS managed to hold above the lower daily cycle band. Now a close back above the upper daily cycle band signals that NATGAS has re-established its daily uptrend.

Oil also had some bullish developments on Thursday.

oil

Since 21 days is too early to expect a daily cycle low to form, I expected oil to be rejected by either the 10 day MA or the declining trend line and then complete its daily cycle decline. Setting aside the early 21 day cycle count, oil is behaving as if it is rallying out of a daily cycle low.

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 12 and then printed its lowest point last week on day 21. Oil has since formed a daily swing low and regained the 50 day MA. Then, not only did oil regain the 10 day MA on Thursday, it also broke above the declining trend line and managed to close above the upper daily cycle band. The close back above the upper daily cycle band indicates that this is a new daily cycle.

oil fib

I still have some concerns that day 21 is too early for the daily cycle low. However, looking at the fib retracement we can see that oil retraced a full 61.8% on this recent decline. So unless oil does something to make me think differently, like closing back below the upper daily cycle band, I will label day 21 as an early daily cycle low.

Bullish Energy

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The energy sector continues to develop bullishly.

oil

Tuesday was day 9 for the daily oil cycle. Oil broke above the declining trend line which delivers final confirmation of the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band. This signals an end to the daily downtrend and confirms that oil has begun a new intermediate cycle.

NATGAS appears to be bottoming as well.

natgas

NATGAS printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 6 peak. NATGAS formed a swing low on Monday and then closed above the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday to indicate a new daily cycle. While Friday was only day 16, which is a bit early for a DCL, it does follow an extended 43 day daily cycle. So a 16 day cycle would help to even out the cycle counts. Now a break of the declining trend line will deliver confirmation of the new daily cycle .

Confirmed Uptrend

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NATGAS broke above the declining trend line last week to signal the new daily cycle. And by closing above the upper daily cycle band last week NATGAS appeared to be establishing a daily uptrend. Today NATGAS confirmed the new daily uptrend.

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Tuesday was day 7 for the daily NATGAS cycle. By closing above the upper daily cycle band in such a clear and convincing manner, NATGAS has confirm that it is in a new daily uptrend. NATGAS will remain in the daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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NATGAS prints a multi-year low about every 30 – 35 months. NATGAS printed its lowest point in March after declining for over 25 months. March was month 47, placing NATGAS deep in its timing band to print a 3 year cycle low. While we still need to see a break of the declining monthly trend line to confirm that NATGAS is in a new 3 year cycle, the way that NATGAS sliced through the 200 day MA adds to my conviction that it is leaving behind its 3 year cycle low.

Stocks are also in a confirmed uptrend.

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Tuesday was day 6 for the daily equity cycle and stocks printed another higher high. While stocks did close lower on Tuesday than last Friday, stocks still closed above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in the daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.