Miners Print Lower Low

The Miners printed a lower low on Thursday.

Printing a lower low on Thursday negates Wednesday’s swing low and extends the daily cycle decline.

Thursday was day 18, placing the Miners in the early part of their timing band for a DCL. A swing low is required to mark the DCL. Printing a lower low on Thursday means that the earliest the Miners can form a swing low will be on Friday. A break above Thursday’s low of 32.47 willl form a swing low. As we discussed on Wednesday, the Miners need to close above the previous daily cycle low of 32.87 to increase the odds that DCL has formed.

Miner Swing Low

The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 16 — which is a bit early to expect a daily cycle low to form. However, Wednesday’s swing low indicates that day 16 may be an early DCL. If the Miners can deliver bullish follow through and close above the previous daily cycle low of 32.87, that will increase the odds that day 16 was the DCL.

And if day 16 turns out to be the daily cycle low. It also has a chance to mark the intermediate cycle low.

The Miners Were Close — But No Cigar

Since printing the day 54 low, the Miners had been coiling below the 10 day MA until Wednesday.

The Miners closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. They delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing above the upper daily cycle band to signal that day 54 was the DCL.  Closing above the upper daily cycle band signals a new daily uptrend. The Miners are close, but no cigar. The Miners will need to break above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA in order for a trending move to develop.

Miner Expectations

The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle.

What are the expectations for this new daily cycle?

The above chart is a look at the last 9 years for the Miners.

Highlighted are the rallies that began during the summer months (late May through early September).

Hope history repeats itself.

Miner Undercut

The Miners broke below the day 34 low, extending their daily cycle decline.

Often times a bottom forms by undercutting a recent low. The bullish divergence on the oscillators aligns with this scenario. Monday was day 40 for the daily Miner cycle, which places them deep in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s bullish reversal on eases the parameters for forming a swine low. A break above 34.44 will form a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle.

Miners Deliver Buy Signal

The Miners regained the 10 day MA on Thursday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 28. This places them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday’s bullish candle is a buy signal since regaining the 10 day MA this late in the daily cycle has good odds of marking the DCL. A swing low will have us label day 28 as the DCL. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend. If they form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band, they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 38.99 will form a daily swing low.

Miner Watch 2

The Miners formed a daily swing high on Thursday..

Since day 13, the Miners have been consolidating below the 40 level. Thursday was day 23 for the daily Miner cycle.  That places them in the early part of their timing band for a DCL.  The Miners formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.  There will be an obvious support level at the converging 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. Currently, the Miners are in a daily uptrend.  If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Major Trend Change For Miners

The Miners tested the 200 day MA on Thursday.

The Miners printed their ICL in early March. The first daily cycle peaked just below the 200 day MA. The resulting daily cycle decline saw the Miners backtest the declining multi month trend line. The Miners rallied off of the declining trend line and now are testing the 200 day MA. A close back above the 200 day MA will signal a major change of trend.

Miners Deliver Bullish Response

The Miners ran into resistance just below the 200 day MA. They had been in decline — until Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, day 41, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 41 as the DCL. Since the Miners were in a daily uptrend, Monday’s swing low signals that the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The bigger picture shows us that the Miners delivered a bullish response to the backtest of the declining multi-month trend line. A close back above the 200 day MA will signal a major change of trend.