Stocks Complete Swing Low

Stocks competed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.  Stocks managed to recover the breakdown level on Monday, forming a bullish reversal. On Tuesday stocks completed a swing low so we will label day 46 as the DCL, using Monday’s low as the stop.  Stocks should go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

The Miners also completed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

The Miners broke below the previous DCL last week to form a failed daily cycle. The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, day 34, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low and pierced the declining trend line on Tuesday so we will label day 34 as the DCL. In the Mid Week Update I plan to discuss what this means in terms of the weekly Miner cycle.

Miner Support

The Miners are finding support at the 35 level this morning.

The above is a 2 hour chart showing the Miners in the premarket and they appear to be finding some support at the 35 level.

The bigger picture shows us that at 29 days, the Miners are in their timing band for a DCL.   A swing low and a break above the declining trend line would signal the new daily cycle. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Miner Consolidation

The Miners

The Miners have been consolidating since peaking in early March.

A break out of consolidation should result in a trending move.

The Miners are in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation could trigger a melt-up phase. However, we need to be aware that the Miners are stretched above the 10 day MA along with bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. This is beginning to look similar to the top that formed in May, 2021 and 38.50 should still be used as a stop.

Miner Breakout

While we do not know if this will lead to a sustained breakout or not, the Miners did close out the week back above the 38.50 level.

We need to acknowledge the bearish divergence developing on the oscillators. And a close below 38.50 should still be used as the stop. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend.   They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

Miner DCL ?

The Miners formed a swing low on Thursday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 31, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. A close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle.  

The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend.  A close back above the 38.50 resistance level will signal a continuation of their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stops can then be set to 38.50

Miner Stop

Last Thursday we looked at the Miners.

We observed that a bullish break out of consolidation – there would not be much resistance until 38.50.

The Miners shot past the 30.50 resistance level on Wednesday to breach the 40 level before closing at the 38.57. Stops can now be raised to a close below 38.50. At 26 days, the Miners are nearing their timing band for a daily cycle decline. A swing high and close below the 38.50 level would signal the daily cycle decline.

Miner Volatility

Russia attacking Ukraine caused a lot of volatility in the Miners. 

The Miners have been consolidating below the gap that left behind in June and above the previous intermediate cycle high. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal – with not much resistance until the 38.50 level.  But a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. 

A Miner Change In Behavior

The Miners are demonstrating a change in behavior.

The Miners have been contained by the 200 day MA since losing it back in June. That has changed.

The Miners closed above the 200 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday.   The Miners are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report I breakdown what this change in behavior means for the weekly and yearly cycle.

Miner Smackdown

The Miners got smacked down on Thursday.

The Miners formed a swing high on Thursday. They failed to make a higher high and now have closed below the 50 day MA. A peak on day 8 sets up the Miners for a left translated daily cycle formation which signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

Miner Buy Signal

On Saturday we discussed that we were looking for a potential buy signal for the Miners. The Miners delivered that buy signal on Monday.

The Miners printed their l lowest point on day 30, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. We were looking for a close above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to use as our buy signal to indicate that day 30 was the daily cycle low.

The next obvious area of resistance will be the declining 200 day MA. We will use a close above the 200 day MA as a place to add.