Equity Sell Signal

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows above the lower daily cycle band. While stocks remain in their daily uptrend, they delivered some sell signals on Thursday.

After dipping into a half cycle low last week stocks broke out to a new high on Tuesday and Wednesday. However stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and printed a failed breakout which signals that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The divergent TSI along with the bearish TSI crossover are other signals that stocks are beginning their daily cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

Meanwhile the Miners continue to develop bullishly.

After the huge day on Wednesday it is not unexpected to see the Miners give back a little on Thursday. However, the Miners continue to develop bullishly as buyers stepped in once the Miners tagged the 10 day MA. That helps to further confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL. And this has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I discussed in Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.

If you are interested in the Mid-Week Update, I am running a special through Sunday. I am offering a 6 week trial subscription for $15.

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The Miners Deliver Buy Signals

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The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, which was day 26. That places them in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The Miners delivered buy signals on Wednesday as they reversed higher.

Wednesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. Other buy signals that printed on Wednesday include bullish crossovers on both the RSI & TSI and closing above the lower daily cycle band. Wednesday’s swing low also has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I plan to discuss in tonights Mid-Week Update.

If you are interested in the Mid-Week Update, I will be running a special through Sunday. I am offering a 6 week trial subscription for $15.

The trial subscription will give you full access to the premium site. Which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates The Weekend Updates looks of the daily & weekly charts of DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Seeking A Miner Buy Signal

0 miner surprise

The Miners printed a lower low on Tuesday. At 26 days, the Miners are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bullish divergences are developing on the oscillators that indicate that a DCL is near. The Miners are also in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So the odds are good that once a daily cycle low forms, it will also signal a new intermediate cycle.

A swing low and break of the declining trend line would signal a daily cycle low. However, it is still possible the see the Miners break lower.

Another potential signal would be a gap lower. The Miners gapped lower prior to printing the both the May and July daily cycle lows. Now that the Miners are in their timing band for a a daily cycle low a gap lower could exhaust the selling to set up the final daily cycle low.

Miners Face Major Resistance

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The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday following the day 16 peak. Thursday was day 18, placing the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

The Miners formed a swing low on Friday. The Miners will need to close above the 10 day MA in order to signal a new daily cycle. And even if the Miners do close above the 10 day MA they face major resistance from both the declining 200 day MA and the declining 50 day MA. The Miners will remain bearish until the Miners can close convincing above the 50 day MA.

Miner Expectations

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The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL.

So the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. This was week 12 for the dollar’s weekly cycle. That means that the dollar can trend lower for another 6 to 12 weeks before printing its intermediate cycle low. Which is plenty of time for the dollar to print at least one more failed daily cycle.

The Miners responded to the dollar printing a swing low by forming a bearish reversal off the declining 50 day MA.

Tuesday was day 15 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners 3 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners have been trying to close above the 50 day MA for the last 3 trading sessions. On Tuesday the Miners were rejected by the declining 50 day MA and then went on to close below the 200 day MA. With the dollar apparently beginning a new daily cycle it is quite likely that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. A break below 22.92 will form a swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The Miners did print a new daily cycle high on Tuesday. A new high on day 15 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. The Miners beginning to form right translated daily cycles would align with the declining into an intermediate cycle low.

Potential Miner Change in Expectation

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The Miners formed a daily swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, following the day day 9 peak. At 24 days, that placed the Miners in their timing band to form a daily cycle low. The Miners formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners also formed a weekly swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point last week. At 16 weeks, the Miners need another 2 weeks before they enter their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That sets up the expectation that this new daily cycle will form as a left translated, failed daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle low.

However the Miners are currently testing the declining weekly trend line.

The Miners lost the 50 week MA as they declined into the week 16 low. Already the Miners have formed a weekly swing low and have regained the 50 week MA. I said on Sunday that I believe that there is a Miner opportunity on the horizon which will arrive at the conclusion of the current intermediate cycle. A close above the declining weekly trend line would be a clear signal that week 16 hosted an early ICL.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
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* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
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* NATGAS
* XLE
* DAX
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

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A Miner Question

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The Miners printed a lower low on day 18 and then formed a swing low on Monday. The Miners then broke below the day 18 low on Friday.

The question the I have been receiving is — did Friday mark a failed daily cycle?

There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that typically foreshadow the DCL. But even though a swing low formed on Monday, the Miners did not break convincingly above the declining trend line. And they still remain below the declining 10 day MA. That makes Friday’s lower low — day 24 for the daily Miner cycle. And at 24 days, that places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close above the upper daily cycle band.

I believe that there is a Miner opportunity on the horizon which will arrive at the conclusion of the current intermediate cycle. Which is something that I cover in the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* DAX
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here for the special 6 week trial subscription.

Subscribers can click here.

Another Miner Low

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The Miners formed a swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 18, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line would signal a new daily cycle. However, with this being only week 16 for the intermediate Miner cycle, the Miners need one more daily cycle to bring them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That sets up an expectation for the new daily cycle to form in a left translated manner. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The dollar may be instrumental as to whether or not the Miners break out of their daily downtrend.

Monday was day 12 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar formed a swing high on Monday but still closed above the upper daily cycle band maintaining its daily uptrend. While it is possible that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline, I believe that the dollar got a bit too stretched above the 10 day MA. Which would make it likely that the dollar will drift lower into a half cycle low, allowing the Miners to confirm a new daily cycle. Then once the 10 day MA catches up to price, the dollar rallies. Which would send the Miners lower to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Dollar Strength

The dollar broke convincingly higher on Thursday.

The new high on day 9 begins to shift the odds for a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also closed convincingly above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. That confirms that the dollar has resumed its daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Meanwhile, the Miners closed convincingly lower on Thursday.

Thursday was day 18 for the daly Miner cycle, which places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Since cycles often balance themselves out, that suggests that the Miners could be forming a daily cycle low at any day. The 190 million Buying on Weakness on Thursday would align with a daily cycle low forming soon.

But if a daily cycle low does form soon, the weekly set up suggests that the trend is still lower.

This is week 15 for the intermediate Miner cycle, which places the Miners 3 weeks shy of their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Since that timing band can stretch for 8 plus weeks, that leaves plenty of time for one more failed daily cycle to form before the intermediate cycle low finally forms.

So a possible scenario is for the dollar to consolidate or even form a a half cycle low after Thursday’s big rally. Which could be enough to allow the miners to rally and confirm a new daily cycle. Then when the dollar resumes its upward trend that would cause the daily Miner cycle to form as a left translated cycle formation and complete its intermediate cycle decline.

Miners Cross the Line

The Miners crossed below the weekly cycle trend line this week.

This is week 15 for the intermediate Miner cycle. A break below the weekly trend line is a signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Confirmation of the intermediate cycle decline arrives with a failed daily cycle.

Tuesday was day 16 for the daily Miner cycle. With a peak on day 9 the Miners are setting up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.81 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners continue to close below the lower daily cycle band which indicates that they are in a daily downtrend. They will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close above the upper daily cycle band.