Gold Bottom

Gold formed a weekly bullish reversal.

Gold printed a daily swing low on Friday to quite likely mark the daily cycle low. This is weekly 31 for the intermediate gold cycle. That places gold very deep in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low will signal the new intermediate cycle. The weekly bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a weekly swing low. I also believe that gold is forming its yearly cycle low.

Allow me to help track gold’s daily, weekly and yearly cycles for you. This week I am running a 6 week trial subscription special.

The 6 week trial subscription will give you full access to the premium site which includes a complete breakdown of gold’s daily, weekly and yearly cycles. The trial subscription also includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney 6 week trial subscription please click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

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Miner Divergence

Gold closed loser on Tuesday.

Gold broke below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. Tuesday was day 29 for the daily gold cycle, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. At this point a swing low accompanied by a close above the 10 day MA would signal a new daily cycle.

Instead of following gold lower, the Miners demonstrated some bullish divergence by closing higher on Tuesday

Tuesday was also day 29 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners printed a bullish reversal off of support of the 50 day MA. That eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 22.37 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

This sets up a low risk opportunity for the Miners. The Miners are getting deep in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. That increases the odds that a swing low will mark the daily cycle low. So if the Miners do form a swing low, a stop could be placed just below the 50 day MA.

Gold Bull Update

I want to update my long term projection for Gold

The fate of gold is tied to the dollar.


Historically, gold has traded inversely to the dollar.
The dollar has recently entered a bear market.
Consequently, gold has entered a new bull market.

The dollar cycles through a 15 year super cycle.
That super cycle has peaked and confirmed the 15 year super cycle decline
In the short term I expect some volatility with gold.
But the prognosis for gold long term is very bullish.

In my Special Report – The Gold Bull Update
I will compare gold now to where it was when it began the last gold bull.
I will then relate what that means in terms of the dollar’s 15 year super cycle.

I would like to make available the special report The Gold Bull Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney special report The Gold Bull Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Catching the Gold Train

Gold has formed a monthly swing low.


December was month 12 for the yearly gold cycle, placing it in its timing band for a yearly cycle low. So the monthly swing low signals the new yearly cycle. A close back above the upper monthly cycle band will confirm the new yearly cycle and renew the monthly uptrend.

In my Special Report – The New Gold Bull – I will break down where gold is in its daily cycle. We also look at its long term picture and we will also look at the driving factor behind the new gold bull — the collapsing dollar. And we will discuss entry strategies

I would like to make this report available here. The New Gold Bull report and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update, posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of The DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney report – The New Gold Bull and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Gold Update

Currently gold is in a daily uptrend and will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. However the swing high and close below the 10 day MA to signals that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 45 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold deep in its timing band for printing a daily cycle low. Gold should break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line in order to complete is daily cycle decline.

Since gold has been trading inversely with the dollar, then let’s get a sense of where the dollar is in its daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday following the day 9 peak. Friday was day 26, placing the it early in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Lately the dollar’s daily cycle have been averaging over 30 days. But since the last daily cycle ran 50 days, we could see a shortened daily cycle here. The dollar has formed a daily swing low. A close above the declining 10 day MA will signal that day 26 did host the DCL. Then a close above the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.

Slow out of the Blocks

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 27. It then formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 36, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

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Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA on Tuesday to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle but stocks have been slow out of the blocks to accomplish this.

Meanwhile gold printed a bearish reversal on day 29 that likely is the daily cycle top, but it too has been slow out of the blocks with any follow through.

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Thursday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold in its timing band for seeking out its daily cycle low. Gold has formed a swing high off the day 29 peak. Now a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Gold has been in a daily uptrend. As long as the daily cycle low closes above the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend.

Almost Time …

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Stocks peaked on day 27 and has been in decline since. With Monday being day 36 for the daily equity cycle that places stocks solidly in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

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Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 2430.58 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. However stocks printed 285 million Selling on Strength on Monday.

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It is common enough to see Buying on Weakness days begin to accumulate as stocks near a cycle bottom. What is not common is to see more Selling on Strength days as the cycle bottom nears. So even though stocks printed a bullish reversal on Monday, the Selling on Strength number is a signal that stocks will continue lower and perhaps break below the previous daily cycle low. If that happened that would form a failed daily cycle and would allow stocks to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Gold also showed up Monday on Selling on Strength.

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Gold printed a bearish reversal on Friday. Although gold did close higher on Monday, gold did manage to form a daily swing high.

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Monday was day 30 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold in its timing band to seek out its daily cycle low. Add to that that gold also managed to form a daily swing high and it is clear that cycle top signals are beginning to add up. A break below the daily cycle trend line should send gold to seek out its daily cycle low. Gold has been closing above the upper daily cycle band indicating that gold is in a daily uptrend. If gold can form its daily swing low without closing below the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend and that swing low will represent a buying opportunity.

Uptrends

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Tonight I wanted to look at some different stages of uptrends, beginning with stocks.

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Even though stocks formed a swing high on Wednesday, they remain firmly in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

gld

Gold began to close above the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower last Friday. Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 21, but did not close below the lower daily cycle band. Now that gold has closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday, this establishes that gold is in a new daily uptrend. Gold should remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Miners also began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to peaking on day 16. Like gold, the Miners did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. If he Miners can now close back above the upper daily cycle band it too, will have established a new daily uptrend.

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Conversely, the dollar’s decline into the YCL is stretching its daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. The downtrend has been characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Even though the dollar has formed a swing low and appears to have begun a new daily cycle, the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update

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Back in January we discussed gold’s relation to the dollar.

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We looked at the above chart which demonstrated that gold enters a bullish market as the dollar declines into its 15 year super cycle low.

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The updated chart shows that gold has begun to trend higher as the dollar has begun to trend lower.

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A closer look reveals that gold has reversed from printing lower lows to now printing higher lows. The dollar also had a change. It went from printing higher lows to now printing lower lows.

In this week’s Special Report, The Gold Train Update we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Miner Warning

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In the Weekend Report we discussed how gold formed a weekly swing low signaling a new intermediate cycle.

gld weekly

Part of the rationale that gold did form an intermediate low included gold closing convincingly above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Also gold closing above both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA supports a new weekly cycle scenario.

However, Monday’s drop in the Miners is a warning signal that the intermediate low for gold is yet to come.

gdx

Recently the daily Miner cycles have been stretching 27 – 33 days so a peak on day 10 can surely result in a left translated daily cycle. Monday’s swing high and 1.61% drop signals the daily cycle is beginning its daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will provide more evidence that the daily cycle decline has begun. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band will indicate that the Miners are continuing their intermediate cycle decline. Last week we discussed how the accumulated 818 million Selling on Strength indicated of a left translated cycle formation. And this aligns with our yearly cycle count for the Miners.

gdx yearly

The yearly Miner cycle peaked in February and then printed its lowest point in May, month 5, which is too early for a yearly cycle low. Since cycle low is defined as the lowest point following the cycle peak, then the Miners will need to break below the May low of 20.89 in order to complete its yearly cycle decline.

So if gold loses both the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA then that would indicate that this is week 11 and gold is continuing its intermediate cycle decline.