Gold Update

Currently gold is in a daily uptrend and will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. However the swing high and close below the 10 day MA to signals that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 45 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold deep in its timing band for printing a daily cycle low. Gold should break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line in order to complete is daily cycle decline.

Since gold has been trading inversely with the dollar, then let’s get a sense of where the dollar is in its daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday following the day 9 peak. Friday was day 26, placing the it early in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Lately the dollar’s daily cycle have been averaging over 30 days. But since the last daily cycle ran 50 days, we could see a shortened daily cycle here. The dollar has formed a daily swing low. A close above the declining 10 day MA will signal that day 26 did host the DCL. Then a close above the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.

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Slow out of the Blocks

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 27. It then formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 36, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

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Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA on Tuesday to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle but stocks have been slow out of the blocks to accomplish this.

Meanwhile gold printed a bearish reversal on day 29 that likely is the daily cycle top, but it too has been slow out of the blocks with any follow through.

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Thursday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold in its timing band for seeking out its daily cycle low. Gold has formed a swing high off the day 29 peak. Now a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Gold has been in a daily uptrend. As long as the daily cycle low closes above the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend.

Almost Time …

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Stocks peaked on day 27 and has been in decline since. With Monday being day 36 for the daily equity cycle that places stocks solidly in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

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Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 2430.58 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. However stocks printed 285 million Selling on Strength on Monday.

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It is common enough to see Buying on Weakness days begin to accumulate as stocks near a cycle bottom. What is not common is to see more Selling on Strength days as the cycle bottom nears. So even though stocks printed a bullish reversal on Monday, the Selling on Strength number is a signal that stocks will continue lower and perhaps break below the previous daily cycle low. If that happened that would form a failed daily cycle and would allow stocks to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Gold also showed up Monday on Selling on Strength.

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Gold printed a bearish reversal on Friday. Although gold did close higher on Monday, gold did manage to form a daily swing high.

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Monday was day 30 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold in its timing band to seek out its daily cycle low. Add to that that gold also managed to form a daily swing high and it is clear that cycle top signals are beginning to add up. A break below the daily cycle trend line should send gold to seek out its daily cycle low. Gold has been closing above the upper daily cycle band indicating that gold is in a daily uptrend. If gold can form its daily swing low without closing below the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend and that swing low will represent a buying opportunity.

Uptrends

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Tonight I wanted to look at some different stages of uptrends, beginning with stocks.

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Even though stocks formed a swing high on Wednesday, they remain firmly in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Gold began to close above the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower last Friday. Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 21, but did not close below the lower daily cycle band. Now that gold has closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday, this establishes that gold is in a new daily uptrend. Gold should remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Miners also began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to peaking on day 16. Like gold, the Miners did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. If he Miners can now close back above the upper daily cycle band it too, will have established a new daily uptrend.

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Conversely, the dollar’s decline into the YCL is stretching its daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. The downtrend has been characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Even though the dollar has formed a swing low and appears to have begun a new daily cycle, the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update

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Back in January we discussed gold’s relation to the dollar.

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We looked at the above chart which demonstrated that gold enters a bullish market as the dollar declines into its 15 year super cycle low.

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The updated chart shows that gold has begun to trend higher as the dollar has begun to trend lower.

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A closer look reveals that gold has reversed from printing lower lows to now printing higher lows. The dollar also had a change. It went from printing higher lows to now printing lower lows.

In this week’s Special Report, The Gold Train Update we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Miner Warning

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In the Weekend Report we discussed how gold formed a weekly swing low signaling a new intermediate cycle.

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Part of the rationale that gold did form an intermediate low included gold closing convincingly above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Also gold closing above both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA supports a new weekly cycle scenario.

However, Monday’s drop in the Miners is a warning signal that the intermediate low for gold is yet to come.

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Recently the daily Miner cycles have been stretching 27 – 33 days so a peak on day 10 can surely result in a left translated daily cycle. Monday’s swing high and 1.61% drop signals the daily cycle is beginning its daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will provide more evidence that the daily cycle decline has begun. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band will indicate that the Miners are continuing their intermediate cycle decline. Last week we discussed how the accumulated 818 million Selling on Strength indicated of a left translated cycle formation. And this aligns with our yearly cycle count for the Miners.

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The yearly Miner cycle peaked in February and then printed its lowest point in May, month 5, which is too early for a yearly cycle low. Since cycle low is defined as the lowest point following the cycle peak, then the Miners will need to break below the May low of 20.89 in order to complete its yearly cycle decline.

So if gold loses both the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA then that would indicate that this is week 11 and gold is continuing its intermediate cycle decline.

Dollar Low

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The dollar printed it lowest point on Wednesday following an extended daily cycle decline. Then the dollar formed a swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle.

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Even though the past 7 daily cycles have stretched to over 32 days from trough to trough, Wednesday was day 54 making this a very stretched daily cycle. The dollar formed a clear and convincing daily swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle. The dollar still needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Once the new daily cycle is confirmed, I suspect that the dollar will also leave behind an intermediate and a yearly cycle low, which I plan to cover in the Weekend Report.

As the dollar rallies out of its yearly cycle low that should send gold into its yearly cycle decline.

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Gold formed a weekly swing low off the week 21 low. Gold then regained 50 week MA and closed above the upper weekly cycle band on week 3 to indicate that week 21 hosted the ICL. The only thing missing from the week 21 low was a failed daily cycle. Otherwise all indications are the gold is now in its 2nd intermediate cycle for the year. I suspect that the impending dollar rally out of its yearly cycle low will see the dollar form a right translated weekly cycle. That should cause this new intermediate gold cycle to form as a left translated weekly cycle leading into its yearly cycle decline. Which appears to be in progress.

So far this week gold has formed a weekly swing high. If gold manages to close below both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA that will further indicate that gold has begun its intermediate cycle decline. The peak on week 4 will assure us of a left translated weekly cycle formation. Since a failed weekly cycle is needed to confirm the yearly cycle decline gold will need to break below the previous ICL of 1214.30 to form a failed weekly cycle.

Miner Breakout

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The Miners broke convincingly above the declining trend line on Tuesday.

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I received plenty of emails today asking if the Miner’s breakout on Tuesday signals that day 14 hosted an early daily cycle low. The evidence suggest no. The Miner’s first 10 daily cycles since emerging from the bear market bottom back in December, 2015 averaged 23.7 days. The previous 2 daily cycles ran 49 and 39 days respectively. So 14 days historically is just too early for a DCL, so we will label it as a half cycle low. That makes Tuesday day 22 for the daily Miner cycle. A new high on day 22 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

The second reason for labeling Tuesday as day 22 for the Miners is the status of the daily gold cycle.

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Gold is the driver to the precious metals market. Gold only had a mid-cycle consolidation which makes Tuesday clearly day 19. The new high on day 19 shifts the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. Which aligns with where the Miners are in their daily cycle.

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The Miners delivered a large Selling on Strength number on Tuesday. Often times these large Selling on Strength numbers appear at or near cycle tops. Which is another reason that supports a day 22 labeling for the Miners.

In Wednesday’s Mid-Week Report I plan to discuss where this places gold and the Miners in their intermediate cycle and tie that in with what the dollar is doing.

The 6/02/17 Morning Update

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Gold closed lower on Thursday.

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The lower close eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 1262.00 forms a swing high. And then a break below the daily cycle trend line confirms that the daily cycle is in decline.

Gold has yet to print a failed daily cycle during this intermediate rally. Since 2 out of the past 4 daily cycles stretched past 40 days it is still possible for gold to form a left translated daily cycle, even with a new high on day 15.

The Miners are being contained by the declining trend line and they have not followed gold higher. This bearish divergence is a signal of an impending intermediate decline for gold. The Miners have already locked in a left translated daily cycle formation.

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Thursday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners need to break below the day 15 low of 22.20 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. And if gold is in the process of forming a failed daily cycle, then the Miners will likely follow. A break below 20.89 will form a failed daily cycle for the Miners.

A rallying dollar will likely send gold into its intermediate cycle decline.

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The dollar printed its lowest point on day 38, following the day 10 peak. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar is also in its timing band for forming an intermediate cycle low. The dollar has already formed a daily swing low and a weekly swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle for the dollar.

The catalyst that could set things in motion is Friday’s jobs report.

Bearish Gold Divergence

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The dollar printed its lowest point last week on Monday, day 38. Which places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low and rallied into Friday which makes it look like day 38 hosted the daily cycle low.

Then the dollar closed lower on Monday.

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Even though the dollar closed lower on Monday, it still appears to be rallying out of a daily cycle low. And I think gold’s reaction on Tuesday supports that notion. Lately when the dollar declines, gold has rallied.

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In The Weekend Report we discussed the conflicting messages from gold.

The evidence that gold is in a new intermediate cycle:
* A new high on day 14 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.
* Gold is establishing a new daily uptrend.
* Week 21 places gold in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
* A weekly swing low has formed.
* Gold has broke above the declining weekly trend line.
* Gold has closed above the 50 week MA.

Reasons that prevents us from labeling May 9th as the ICL.
1) Gold has yet to deliver a failed daily cycle.
2) The dollar is beginning to rally into a new daily cycle.
3) A weekly swing low has formed on the dollar.
4) The Miners have been diverging bearishly from gold.

So instead of rallying on a day where the dollar closed lower, gold also closed lower — perhaps sensing the dollar has formed a daily cycle low. A close below 1261.80 will form a swing high on gold. Then a close below the 200 day MA will confirm that gold’s daily cycle is in decline. Since the previous 4 daily cycles for gold stretched between 28 days and 48 days, a peak on day 14 could still result in a left translated cycle formation.