Gold Support

Gold is being squeezed by the declining 50 day MA and the rising 200 day MA.

Gold printed its lowest point on day 33, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Gold formed a swing low and managed to close above the 50 day MA to initially signal a new daily cycle. Since then, gold has lost the 50 day MA, which calls into question if day 33 was the DCL. And as of Tuesday, gold is threatening to lose the 200 day MA.

Gold needs to close back above the 50 day MA in order to label day 33 as the DCL and for the daily cycle to start to gain some traction. Losing support of the 200 day MA will signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline.

Gold Recovery

Gold printed a bullish reversal off of support from the 1800 level on Tuesday. Gold delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday by breaking above the 200 day MA to close above the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle low.

Gold opened under pressure on Thursday and was driven below the 50 day MA. However, gold found support at the 10 day MA and recovered. Gold ended the day forming bullish reversal and closing back above the 50 day MA signaling that this is day 2 for the new daily cycle.

Gold Finds Support

Gold printed a bullish reversal off of support on Tuesday.

The 1800 level had been a resistance level in early 2020. Now it has turned into a support level.

Gold printed a bullish reversal off of support of the 200 day MA on day 28. After crawling along the 200 day MA last week gold undercut the day 28 low. Tuesday was day 33, which places gold in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 1845.00 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. However gold is facing triple resistance from the 200 day MA and the converging 10 day MA and the 50 day MA. No rally will be able to gain any traction until gold can close above these 3 moving averages.

Gold Delivered A Bearish Surprise

Gold broke convincingly above the declining trend line on Monday and to make it appeare that November 30th was the ICL and that gold was now beginning a daily uptrend.

Then gold was attacked at the 1962 resistance level on Wednesday and again on Friday. This caused gold to slice through the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to close below the 200 day MA. Gold also closed below the lower daily cycle band which ends its daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend.

This was a bearish surprise. I have no doubt this was manipulation. But the reason why this attack was so successful may lie with the dollar.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 52.  That places it very deep in its timing band for a DCL.The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday and then a closed above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.

In my special report Gold v Dollar I will look at what is going on with the dollar. We will discuss the possibility that the dollar has not only formed a DCL but a yearly cycle low as well. And if so, that would spell trouble for precious metals.

This week I am offer the Special Report Gold v Dollar and a 6 week Trial Subscription Special for $15.

Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the Special Report Gold v Dollar and a 6 week Trial Subscription Special for $15. click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Update – Silver Miners Leading

Back on 12/30/20 we looked at the precious metals sector.

Last week the Miners closed out the week being contained by the declining 10 week MA. This week the Miners have started off strong and have broken convincingly above the 10 week MA and is now testing the declining weekly trend line.

Gold has broken convincingly above its declining trend line confirming that week 37 was the intermediate cycle low.

And even with the gold Miners up 6.91% and gold up 2.72 % the Silver Miners continue to lead the charge.

The Silver Miners ended last week breaching the declining weekly trend line. This week they have delivered bullish follow through and started off really strong, up 7.85% on Monday. This is only week5 for the new intermediate cycle. Precious metals should rally for the next 2 – 3 months before topping.

Gold is Knocking on the Door

Since recovering the 50 day MA, gold has continued higher.

A break above the day 15 high of 1912.00 will lock in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with gold being in a daily uptrend. Gold will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes back below the lower daily cycle band.

Gold has had multiply tests of the declining intermediate trend line. These multiple test should weaken the trend line. In fact, gold pierced the declining trend line on Friday. A close above the declining trend line should send gold on a trending move.

Silver Miners Leading

Precious metals are in the process of confirming the new intermediate cycle.

The Miners formed a bullish reversal off of support of the 50 week MA on week 36. They formed weekly swing low then retested the 50 week MA. A close above the 10 week MA will signal a new intermediate cycle.

Gold also formed a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 week MA. Gold formed a weekly swing low and closed above the 10 week MA to signal the new intermediate cycle. A break above the declining weekly trend line is needed for confirmation.

The Silver Miners have also formed a weekly swing low and closed above the 10 week MA to signal a new intermediate cycle. And this week they are leading the way by breaking out above the declining weekly trend line. The Silver Miners are already in a weekly uptrend. A close back above the upper weekly cycle band will signal a continuation of the weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.

Gold Update

We will begin tonight with a look at gold’s chart from 12/22/20.

Back on 12/22 we noted that gold  ran into resistance at the declining intermediate trend line and then lost the 50 day MA.

Since then gold has found support at the rising 10 day MA and has regained the 50 day MA.  Gold needs to break above the declining intermediate trend line in order to confirm that November 30 the was the ICL which should result in a trending move.  

Miner Traction

The Miners delivered a bullish surprise on Thursday.

The Miners were rejected by the 50 day MA. They formed a swing high then closed below both the 200 day MA and the 10 day MA on Tuesday to signal the daily cycle decline. At this point if the Miners were going to extend their intermediate cycle decline, then the gravitational pull of the pending ICL should have taken over. Instead, the Miners regained both the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA on Wednesday and closed higher again on Thursday. A break above the day 16 high of 37.44 will shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Which is one of the confirmations that the Miners have begun a new intermediate cycle. The Miners are in a daily uptrend. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will affirm the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

In my Special Report, Bullish Expectations, I will breakdown how the long term gold & Miner charts are setting up of a potential trending move.  This week I am running a year end special.   Along with my special report, Bullish Expectations,  you will receive a 6 week trial subscription that will give you full access to the premium site.  This includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily and weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS and XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the special report Bullish Expectations and the 6 week trial subscription click here

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Gold Trend Line Resistance

Gold closed above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. It also signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

However, gold ran into trend line resistance on Monday.

Gold needs to break above the declining intermediate trend line in order to confirm that November 30 th was the ICL. And since gold is in a daily uptrend, if gold can form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then gold would remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.