Energy to Confirm New Daily Cycle

Energy emerged from its yearly cycle low and rallied close to 13% before peaking on day 35. Then it formed a swing high and drifted lower until printing its lowest point on Friday. That was day 48 placing energy very late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

XLE formed a swing low on Monday and managed to close above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. XLE then delivered more bullish follow through on Tuesday. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Since XLE managed to not close below the lower daily cycle band as it formed its DCL it remains in its daily uptrend. XLE will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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Energy Looking Bullish

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It looks as if Energy turned a corner.

xle_daily

We discussed on Sunday how XLE has been caught in the grip of a punishing daily downtrend. On Monday XLE closed above the declining trend line to signal that day 10 hosted an early DCL. Shorten daily cycles are more likely to occur at the tail end of an extended sell off due to exhaustion of bears. And that is what appears to be happening with XLE.

bpener

Another bullish signal occurred with the BPENER. Monday the BPENER delivered bullish follow through to last week’s close above the 50 day MA.

In my Special Energy Update that I posted on Sunday I take look at the energy sector and discuss the weekly charts for NATGAS, Oil, Uranium and XLE as well as the yearly chart for XLE.

Perhaps you would like to integrate cycle analysis into your trading. This week I am offering a special 4th of July Trial Subscription. The trial subscription includes the Special Energy Update as well as 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Services for $15.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Special Energy Update
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

The ideal time to buy is at a cycle low.
* There are 4 cycle lows that I cover:
– The daily cycle low
– The intermediate (weekly) cycle low
– The yearly cycle low
– the multi-year cycle low

My goal is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.
So please click here for the Special Energy Update & 6 week trial subscription.

Energy Update

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There were some bullish developments in the Energy Sector last week.
After lengthy sell offs NATGAS, Oil, and Uranium all confirmed new daily cycles last week.

2_bpener_daily

And the Energy Sector Bullish Percent Index closed above the declining 50 day MA.
However there is still a question if XLE has printed its daily cycle low.

1_xle_daily

XLE has been caught in the grip of a punishing daily downtrend. But bullish signals are beginning to emerge.

XLE formed a swing low off the 6/21 low and closed above the bearish trend line. Along with the huge TSI bullish divergence indicates that 6/21 hosted an early DCL. I would like to see a close above the declining 50 day MA confirm the new daily cycle.

In my Special Energy Update I will take a closer look at the energy sector. We will look at the weekly charts for NATGAS, Oil, Uranium and XLE as well as the yearly chart for XLE.

Perhaps you would like to integrate cycle analysis into your trading. This week I am offering a special 4th of July Trial Subscription. The trial subscription includes the Special Energy Update as well as 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Services for $15.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Special Energy Update
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

The ideal time to buy is at a cycle low. 
* There are 4 cycle lows that I cover:
– The daily cycle low
– The intermediate (weekly) cycle low
– The yearly cycle low
– the multi-year cycle low

My goal is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.
So please click here for the Special Energy Update & 6 week trial subscription.

Uptrends

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Gold closed above the upper daily cycle band back on 1/06, which gave us our first signal that gold was beginning a new daily uptrend.

GLD

The decline into the daily cycle low managed to close above the lower daily cycle band, maintaining the new daily uptrend. Gold rallied out of 1/14 daily cycle low and resumed its daily uptrend. Gold is currently due to complete its decline into its daily cycle low. But as long as gold remains above the lower daily cycle band, then gold will remain in a daily uptrend.

gyx

As was discussed on Sunday in a Special Industrial Metals Report for subscribers, the Industrial Metals Sector is beginning to form peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs above the lower daily cycle band, beginning a daily uptrend.

And the energy sector looks like it is beginning a new daily uptrend.

xle

The energy sector has been in a daily down trend since November, 2015. Energy printed its lowest point on 1/20. Since then XLE has printed a higher low and a higher high, the beginnings of an uptrend. Today XLE closed above the upper daily cycle band delivering another signal that it is beginning a new daily uptrend.

Energy

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Oil and the energy ETF XLE both formed swing lows today.

oil

xle

Both oil and energy printed their lowest point on Thursday after an extended decline. Thursday was day 24 for oil and day 19 for XLE. This places oil one day shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low, while it places XLE in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Both formed a swing low today to signal a new daily cycle. Now a break of the daily cycle trend lines will confirm a new daily cycle for both.

NATGAS also formed a swing low on Thursday.

natgas

NATGAS printed its lowest point on Tuesday, following its day 13 peak. Tuesday was day 19, which places NATGAS in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. The swing low today broke above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. This just-completed daily cycle printed a higher high and a higher low over the previous daily cycle, thus breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The status NATGAS’ weekly and yearly cycle is turning bullish and will be covered in the Weekend Report.