The 7/20/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a daily swing high on Friday to set up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar is in its 5th daily cycle, therefore we are expecting a left translated daily cycle formation. Friday’s close below the 10 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. A close below the 50 day MA will signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin the daily downtrend. It will also signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing high this week setting up a potential left translated daily cycle formation.

A close below the 10 day MA will signal that the daily cycle decline has begun. Stocks are currently in a weekly uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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The 6/29/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Friday’s bull trap signals the daily cycle is in decline.

The dollar closed above the previous high on Thursday. But Friday’s huge bearish candle closed below the 10 day MA and manged to turn the 10 DMA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. While a new high on day 11 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation, the bull trap and huge sell off on Friday has me thinking that the dollar will form a failed daily cycle. Currently, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

On Friday, stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.


Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 39, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. While Friday’s swing low indicates a new daily cycle, stocks will need to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks have begun a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 5/11/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Thursday’s swing high & Friday’s bearish follow through signals that the daily cycle decline has begun.

Friday was day 18 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar has closed below both the daily cycle trend line and the 10 day MA to confirm the daily cycle decline. However, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

While 23 days is normally too short for a DCL, it is looking more & more like day 23 did host the DCL.

Our rationale to label day 23 as the DCL includes:
* Swing Low off of support at the 200 day MA
* Closed above the 10 day MA
* Closed above the declining trend line.
* Delivered a bullish TSI Zero Line Crossover

Additional evidence:

* Stocks closed above the 50 day MA
* Stocks have begun to turn the 10 DMA higher
* Closing above the upper daily cycle band.
* Apparent change of nature.

There was more volatility as stocks emerged from the previous day 34 DCL. And stocks were also unable to close above the upper daily cycle band. The rally out of the day 23 low has been stronger. And closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Preponderance of Evidence

Monday we were looking for evidence that day 23 did host a daily cycle low.

Normally 23 days is too early to expect a daily cycle low.
Part of our rationale to consider day 23 as the DCL included:

* Swing Low off of support at the 200 day MA
* Closed above the 10 day MA
* Closed above the declining trend line.
* Delivered a bullish TSI Zero Line Crossover

Since then stocks managed to turn the 10 day MA higher. Stocks have also broke above the 50 day MA to close above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. It also convinces me that day 23 hosted an early DCL. And now that stocks have begun a new daily uptrend they should remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Bearish Shift for Stocks

Stocks broke lower on Tuesday shifting the odds towards a left translated daily cycle formation.

Tuesday was day 16 for the daily equity cycle. Had stocks broke higher on Tuesday that would have allowed us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Instead, stocks broke lower to close back in the volatility zone. Stocks also lost the 10 day MA and closed below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band continues the daily downtrend. It also signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. A left translated daily cycle formation will assure us of a left translated weekly cycle formation. And a left translated weekly cycle formation impacts our yearly cycle framework, which I will discuss in this week’s Weekend Report.

A Bullish Case For Stocks

Today I wanted to point out the bullish case for Stocks

To start the April low was higher than the February low, which is the first step in establishing an uptrend. Next we can see that the momentum oscillators are beginning to trend higher. Stocks also appear to be backtesting the recent volatility zone and has, so far, remained above it. Should stocks form a swing off of Monday’s candle that would be a bullish development and signal a half cycle low. Then then set thing we would watch for would be a close above the upper daily cycle band which would signal an end to the daily downtrend and the beginning of a new uptrend.

The 4/20/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band confirms that Friday was day 3 of a new daily cycle. Also, closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. The previous 3 daily cycle lows occurred at 16 days, 26 days and now 14 days. I believe that the triangle consolidation, which is shown on the weekly chart, is causing some irregular daily cycle counts.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke above the 50 day MA on Tuesday and the closed higher on Wednesday. However the swing high on Thursday along with closing lower on Friday caused stocks to close below the 50 day MA.

Friday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks appear to be back testing the recent volatility zone as they decline into a half cycle low. Although close below the lower daily cycle band would indicate that the intermediate decline has begun. Currently, stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Steel Support Revisited

On April 5th we took a look at steel

We looked at the long term chart for steel and discussed how the 44 level had been support for steel prior to 2012 but then acted as resistance for the following 5 years.

Steel broke above the 44 resistance level late 2017. Steel back tested the 44 level as it declined into the February DCL. The after breaking out to a new multi year high in February, steel proceeded to back test the 44 level again as steel declined into its yearly cycle low.

So when we last looked at steel on April 5th, it had just confirmed a new daily cycle. Steel has continued to rally and closed above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and signals the beginning of a new daily uptrend.

In summary:
* Appears to have printed its yearly cycle low.
* Steel has successfully back tested the multi year support/resistance level.
* Steel is beginning a new daily uptrend.

Transports Starting to Roll

Stocks continued trending higher on Monday and tested the declining 50 day MA.

Stocks need to break convincingly above the 50 day MA and close above the upper daily cycle band for this daily cycle to gain some traction.

The Transports appear to be gaining some traction.

We discussed on Friday how the Transports were getting in gear by confirming their new daily cycle. Well the Transports are now starting to roll.

Monday was day 6 for the daily cycle and the Transports broke convincingly above the declining 50 day MA. They also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle and ends the daily downtrend and signals the beginning of a new daily uptrend. And now that the Transports are rolling they should lead the way for stocks to follow.

The 4/13/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high and closed below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA causing the 10 day MA to turn lower. This signals that the daily cycle is in decline.

A peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar did rally Thursday and Friday. But if the dollar is rejected by the 50 day MA and forms a swing high then that will allow us to construct the declining cycle trend line. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continue to emerge from the day 34 DCL.

Stocks are being squeezed by resistance at the declining 50 day MA and support from the rising 10 day MA. The large BOW on Friday favors a bullish resolution. Still, stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report