The 12/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. This indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday. At 12 days, that is too early to expect a DCL. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday. It is likely that this is a counter trend rally to back test the 50 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks delivered sell signals on Thursday. But breaking to a new high on Friday to negate the daily swing high.

Friday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. It also solidifies the daily cycle trend line. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

A Miner Question

0 miner surprise

The Miners printed a lower low on day 18 and then formed a swing low on Monday. The Miners then broke below the day 18 low on Friday.

The question the I have been receiving is — did Friday mark a failed daily cycle?

There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that typically foreshadow the DCL. But even though a swing low formed on Monday, the Miners did not break convincingly above the declining trend line. And they still remain below the declining 10 day MA. That makes Friday’s lower low — day 24 for the daily Miner cycle. And at 24 days, that places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close above the upper daily cycle band.

I believe that there is a Miner opportunity on the horizon which will arrive at the conclusion of the current intermediate cycle. Which is something that I cover in the Weekend Report.

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Another Miner Low

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 18, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line would signal a new daily cycle. However, with this being only week 16 for the intermediate Miner cycle, the Miners need one more daily cycle to bring them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That sets up an expectation for the new daily cycle to form in a left translated manner. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The dollar may be instrumental as to whether or not the Miners break out of their daily downtrend.

Monday was day 12 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar formed a swing high on Monday but still closed above the upper daily cycle band maintaining its daily uptrend. While it is possible that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline, I believe that the dollar got a bit too stretched above the 10 day MA. Which would make it likely that the dollar will drift lower into a half cycle low, allowing the Miners to confirm a new daily cycle. Then once the 10 day MA catches up to price, the dollar rallies. Which would send the Miners lower to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Miners Cross the Line

The Miners crossed below the weekly cycle trend line this week.

This is week 15 for the intermediate Miner cycle. A break below the weekly trend line is a signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Confirmation of the intermediate cycle decline arrives with a failed daily cycle.

Tuesday was day 16 for the daily Miner cycle. With a peak on day 9 the Miners are setting up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.81 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners continue to close below the lower daily cycle band which indicates that they are in a daily downtrend. They will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close above the upper daily cycle band.

A Miner Downtrend

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing high on Monday.

Monday’s swing high broke below the daily cycle trend line to close below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. This signals that the daily cycle is now in decline.

Monday was day 10 for the daily Miner cycle. A peak on day 9 can often result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.91 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 59 DCL. This began their daily downtrend. Since the Miners failed to close above the upper daily cycle band before forming their daily swing high, they remain in their daily downtrend. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

A Miner Rally

0 miner surprise

Last week we discussed how the Miners formed a daily cycle low. We also discussed that the dollar emerging out of a potential yearly cycle low would likely cause a left translated cycle formation. So today I wanted to take a follow up look at the Miners.

The Miners did close above the 50 day MA on Friday and provided more bullish follow through on Tuesday. However the Miners printed 170 million SOS on Friday and 108 million SOS on Monday. Typically these types of Selling on Strength numbers are associated with an intermediate cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners printed another higher high. But, Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing high. Since the Miners are already in a daily downtrend, a swing high here will allow the Miners to remain in their daily downtrend. A break below 23.53 would form a daily swing high. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bonds Bear Witness to Bearish Cycle

On September 19 we discussed that bonds were beginning to become bearish. On Wednesday, bonds confirmed a bearish cycle.

Bonds printed an extended daily cycle low last Wednesday. Bonds formed a swing low the next day and then closed above the declining 10 day MA on Monday to confirm that day 38 hosted the DCL. Bonds closed lower on Tuesday and then broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wed to form a failed daily cycle. Since Wed was only day 5 bonds could potentially go lower for the next 2 – 4 weeks before printing a daily cycle low.

Bonds have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to establish a daily downtrend. Bonds will continue in their daily downtrend until they close above the upper daily cycle band.
weekly

Bonds are delivering bearish follow through to last week’s break of the weekly trend line. This confirms that bonds are in an intermediate cycle decline. At 12 weeks bonds could trend lower for another 6 – 8 weeks before printing their ICL