A Miner Downtrend

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing high on Monday.

Monday’s swing high broke below the daily cycle trend line to close below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. This signals that the daily cycle is now in decline.

Monday was day 10 for the daily Miner cycle. A peak on day 9 can often result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.91 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 59 DCL. This began their daily downtrend. Since the Miners failed to close above the upper daily cycle band before forming their daily swing high, they remain in their daily downtrend. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Advertisements

A Miner Rally

0 miner surprise

Last week we discussed how the Miners formed a daily cycle low. We also discussed that the dollar emerging out of a potential yearly cycle low would likely cause a left translated cycle formation. So today I wanted to take a follow up look at the Miners.

The Miners did close above the 50 day MA on Friday and provided more bullish follow through on Tuesday. However the Miners printed 170 million SOS on Friday and 108 million SOS on Monday. Typically these types of Selling on Strength numbers are associated with an intermediate cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners printed another higher high. But, Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing high. Since the Miners are already in a daily downtrend, a swing high here will allow the Miners to remain in their daily downtrend. A break below 23.53 would form a daily swing high. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bonds Bear Witness to Bearish Cycle

On September 19 we discussed that bonds were beginning to become bearish. On Wednesday, bonds confirmed a bearish cycle.

Bonds printed an extended daily cycle low last Wednesday. Bonds formed a swing low the next day and then closed above the declining 10 day MA on Monday to confirm that day 38 hosted the DCL. Bonds closed lower on Tuesday and then broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wed to form a failed daily cycle. Since Wed was only day 5 bonds could potentially go lower for the next 2 – 4 weeks before printing a daily cycle low.

Bonds have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to establish a daily downtrend. Bonds will continue in their daily downtrend until they close above the upper daily cycle band.
weekly

Bonds are delivering bearish follow through to last week’s break of the weekly trend line. This confirms that bonds are in an intermediate cycle decline. At 12 weeks bonds could trend lower for another 6 – 8 weeks before printing their ICL

The 9/22/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar finally broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL.

The dollar’s highest point so far was Wednesday, day 8. If the dollar fails to break above Wednesday’s high of 92.50 then it will form another left translated daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday, day 21. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation and provides more evidence that August 21st hosted the ICL.

After printing a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, stocks drifted lower into Friday. But Friday’s bullish closed allowed stocks to remain above the 10 day MA. If a swing low forms then that would indicate that Thursday was a very mild half cycle low. If stocks continue lower and break below Wednesdays’ low of 2496.67 that will form a swing high to indicate the daily cycle decline. However, stocks remain locked in a daily uptrend so any dip is a buying opportunity. Stocks will continue it its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 9/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed it lowest point the previous Fri, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar failed this week to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

The status of the dollar’s daily cycle is unclear. Friday was either day 5 or day 31. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle, which would make Friday day 5. Unless that happens that means that the daily cycle is still declining into its daily cycle low making Friday day 31.

What is clear is that the dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

The new high on Friday, day 18, is shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

While stocks did not form a failed daily cycle as it printed the 8/21 low, all other evidence is indicating that the intermediate low has been set. Stocks are closing above the upper daily cycle band confirming the daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 9/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bullish reversal on Friday.

Friday was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 91.49 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle cycle. The dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks have confirmed the new daily cycle but the status of the intermediate cycle remains unclear.

The rally into the day 9 high caused stocks to get stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks consolidated this week to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. If stocks close below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA that would be a clear signal that stocks have not completed its intermediate cycle decline. But a break above the previous daily cycle high of 2490.87 shifts the odds towards 8/21 being the ICL. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Uptrends & Downtrends

image

The Miners have been closing above the upper daily cycle band to signal that they are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

gdx

The Miners printed another higher high on Thursday. At 43 days the Miners are very late in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The True Strength Indicator is beginning to rollover signaling that a daily cycle decline is imminent. The new high on day 43 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. Therefore once a decline into a daily cycle low begins, the decline should be brief and then we can expect the Miners to go on to break out to new highs.

And the dollar collapsing is, in part, driving the Miners higher.

usd

The dollar has been closing below the lower daily cycle band, which indicates that the dollar is in a daily downtrend. The dollar will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band. With 7 of the previous 9 daily cycles stretching pass 30 days and Thursday being only day 25, there are good odds for the dollar to continue lower for the next 2 to 3 weeks before printing a final daily cycle low.

The 9/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Tuesday’s bullish reversal along with forming a daily swing low on Wednesday indicate a new daily cycle.

Since 7 of the previous 9 daily cycles ran past 30 days makes it possible to see the dollar continue lower. But the dollar closed above the 200 week MA and it is late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. This set up supports the scenario that day 19 hosted a daily cycle low. A break above the declining trend line is needed to confirm the new daily cycle. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks continued higher in to Friday to close above the upper daily cycle band. This establishes a new daily uptrend and signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Likesmoney Trend Tracker

The Likesmoney Trend Tracker is something new for subscribers.
Trading the trend increases the probability of successful trades.
Cycle bands are a visual tool that identify trends.
The Likesmoney Trend Tracker summarizes the cycle band readings for the daily, weekly and monthly trends.

Uptrend Buy Signals
* A swing low above the lower cycle band.
* A close above the upper cycle band.

Downtrend Buy Signals
* A close above the lower cycle band.
* A close above the upper cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bullish Behavior

image

The Miners broke out above the previous daily cycle high on Monday. This is bullish behavior confirming that the Miners are in a daily uptrend.

2_gdx_daily

I have received some emails asking whether or not day 21 was the DCL. Since the daily cycles have been stretching, I have been in the camp that day 21 was a half cycle low. But using our cycle band tool allows us to focus on the uptrend instead of the daily cycle count.

The Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band and the 200 day MA on 7/26 to deliver the first indication that the Miners were beginning a daily uptrend. The Miners soon retraced some of that move and formed a half cycle low on day 21. Since the Miners did not close below the lower daily cycle band they remained in their daily uptrend. The Miners closed back above the upper daily cycle band on 8/10 to affirm the new daily uptrend. The Miners will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

What I believe is, in part, driving the Miners higher is the falling dollar.

image

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Friday to form a failed daily cycle. On Monday they delivered bearish follow through by breaking lower. Monday was day 18 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar’s daily cycle has been stretching of late where 8 of the last 10 daily cycles stretched past 30 days, with the most recent stretching to 50 days.

Here again we can use our cycle band tool. The dollar has been in a punishing downtrend characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.