The 6/23/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point the preceding week on Thursday, day 54. The dollar has since formed a swing low and closed consistently above the 10 day MA signaling a new daily cycle.

The dollar still needs to close above the declining trend line to confirm that Friday was day 6 of the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will continue until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks peaked on Monday, day 21. Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday then breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday setting up for a daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 25, placing stocks 5 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. A clear and convincing break of the daily cycle trend line is needed to confirm the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which confirms that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The huge Selling on Strength number from Friday supports this possible scenario.

Stocks printed 783 million SOS on Friday. This is the type of SOS number that is associated with an intermediate cycle top.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/16/17 Weekend Report preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar undercut the day 49 low, extending the daily cycle out to day 54. The dollar formed a daily swing low on Thursday indicating that day 54 hosted the DCL.

54 days places the dollar very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Still, the dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has been closing below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Day 15 remains as the daily cycle high keeping alive the possibility of a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for the past two plus weeks. The bearish divergence developing on the momentum oscillators indicate a bearish resolution to the consolidation. A break below the day 15 low of 2415.70 will form a daily swing high and indicating a left translated cycle formation. Stocks remain in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/02/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Since the dollar printed its yearly cycle low in May, 2016 — 5 of the previous 7 daily dollars cycles were 30 days or longer. Four of them stretching past 36 days.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, stretching the current daily cycle out to day 46. At this point, a daily swing low and a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher last week.

Friday was day 10 for the daily equity cycle and stocks again printed a new high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless then close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Delivers Bearish Surprise

0

Oil rallied for over 2 weeks since emerging from the May 5th low. Earlier this week oil began to close above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend and that oil may have left behind an intermediate cycle low.

oil daily 2

Oil was getting stretched above the 10 day MA and was due for a cooling off or consolidation. Instead, oil delivered a surprise move lower on Thursday. Generally surprise moves occur in the direction of the trend and Thursday’s 4.79% drop indicates that oil is still in a bearish trend.

Thursday’s move lower eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 48.53 forms a daily swing high. If oil forms a daily swing high then it will also threaten closing below the lower daily cycle band. A close below the lower daily cycle band indicates that the intermediate cycle is in decline. You will notice that the previous 2 times that oil closed below the lower daily cycle band that oil ended up forming failed daily cycles.

The 5/19/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar continued lower this week.

While Friday could be day 8, since 5 of the previous 7 dollar daily cycles stretched 30 days or longer makes it likely that Friday was day 37. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. At this point a swing low has good odds of marking the DCL, The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday to indicate that Thursday hosted the daily cycle low.

A break of the declining trend line is normally used to confirm the new daily cycle. However the recovery on Thursday and Friday following Wednesday’s steep sell off does not allow for the construction of a declining trend line. Since stocks faded into the close on Friday, I would like to see a close above the upper daily cycle band before labeling Thursday as the daily cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 5/12/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

After peaking on day 10, the dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 28, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a daily swing low on Wednesday, closing above the 200 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band. Our intermediate cycle count is at 14 weeks, so our expectation is to see another left translated, failed daily cycle before the intermediate cycle low prints. The daily swing high that formed of Friday aligns with that expectation. A close back below the 200 day MA will signal that the dollar is declining into its daily cycle low and continuing its intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed their highest point on Tues, day 30. A daily swing high formed on Thursday and stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to confirm that stocks are declining into their daily cycle low.

Friday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Once a daily swing low forms, it has good odds of marking the DCL. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 5/05/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 20, following the day 10 peak. And has since drifted sideways being contained by the 200 day MA.

The dollar breached the declining trend line but never convincingly closed above the 10 day MA. Then the dollar broke lower. The lower low on Friday extends the daily cycle out to day 28, placing the dollar in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. The dollar needs to form a swing low and close above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday and then broke out to a new high on Friday.

The previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days so a shortened 26 day cycle helps to balance out the cycle counts. And a shortened 26 day DCL would align with stocks entering a parabolic advance, which was something that I cover last week in the Weekend Report.

However, I do not think that stocks dropped enough for a daily cycle low. So most likely Wednesday was the half cycle low which would make Friday day 28 for the daily equity cycle. But the swing low allows stops to be moved up. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Weakness

0

The dollar broke decisively lower on Tuesday.

$$$ daily

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. That re-afirms that the dollar is in a daily downtrend. It also signals that the dollar is in the grip of an intermediate cycle decline. Tuesday was day 15 for the dollar’s daily cycle. With the dollar’s daily cycle averaging 33 days, that suggests that the dollar could trend lower for another 3 to 4 weeks before printing its DCL.

$$$ Weekly

The rally out of the week 24 low was weak and did not allow us to be certain if the ICL printed. Then the dollar broke below the week 24 low in March. The rejection by the declining weekly trend line convinces me that week 24 hosted the ICL and the rally out of the March low was just a counter-trend rally. That would make this week 11 for the intermediate dollar cycle. Since this intermediate cycle has already failed, the way for the dollar is lower. Once the current daily cycle forms a low, there is enough time in the intermediate cycle to allow for one more failed daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle low.

The 4/07/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The new high on Friday, day 9, begins to shift the likelihood towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar broke convincingly higher on Friday. The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band which signals an end to the daily downtrend and indicates that 3/27/17 hosted the ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke above the declining trend line this week to signal that day 58 hosted the DCL.

So far the rally out of the day 58 DCL has been weak. The bearish reversal on Wednesday, day 7, sets up the potential for an extremely left translated daily cycle formation. This is the 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. We are watching for a left translated daily cycle formation to set up a decline into the ICL. A break below 2322.25 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline. But there were two strong BOW days this week that signals that stocks will make one more push higher. A possible scenario would be a break higher to get everybody “on the wrong side of the boat”. Followed by the final decline into the ICL.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Top

0

The Miners rallied out of the early March low but were halted by the 50 day MA on 3/17.

gdx Mon

The Miners preceded to consolidate below the 50 day MA and began to be squeezed by the convergence of the 50 day MA and the rising 10 day MA.

That convergence was resolved on Tuesday.

gdx tues

The Miners established a daily downtrend by closing below the lower daily cycle band as the declined into the early March DCL. Since they failed to close above the upper daily cycle band during this past leg up, they remain in a daily downtrend. With the Miners approaching their timing band for the daily cycle low, Tuesday’s close below the 10 day MA signals the start of their daily cycle decline.

And part of what is driving the Miners lower is the dollar.

x $$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 19 peak. Day 36 places the dollar well within its timing band to print a DCL. Tuesday’s swing low very likely means that Monday hosted the DCL. And as the dollar rallies out of its DCL that will help to push the Miners lower.