The 8/18/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

We would like to see a close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL but so far the rally out of the day 50 low has been weak.

Friday was day 12 of the new daily cycle. A daily cycle trend line has formed and the dollar has already printed a swing high off the day 10 peak. A break below the daily cycle trend line would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a punishing daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a lower low on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s narrow range day does ease the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2420.69 forms a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

However stocks formed a weekly swing high this week. Stocks maybe pulled lower by the gravitational pull of the impending ICL. A failed daily cycle would confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below their previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 will form a failed daily cycle. I discuss this in greater detail in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 8/11/17 Weekend Report Preview

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a narrow range day on Friday.

Friday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low is required to mark the daily cycle low. Stocks did not break lower on Friday as they formed the narrow range day. Stocks need to do one of 2 things to form a swing low. First they could print another narrow range day that is a lower than Thursday’s low of 2437.75. That would ease the parameters for forming a daily swing low. Otherwise stocks will need to break above Thursday’s high of 2465.38 in order to form a swing low.

A peak on day 27 normally assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But with the weekly cycle stretched to 40 weeks we cannot rule out the possibility of stocks breaking below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 in order to form a failed daily cycle which would allow stocks to complete an intermediate cycle decline.

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on 8/04/17 to signal that day 50 hosted a stretched daily cycle low.

The dollar has not yet broke above the declining trend line for final confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL. So it is unclear if Friday was with day 7 or day 57. But since the dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Friday that indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and is declining into its yearly cycle low. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

———————

And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here through Sunday. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Uptrends

image

Tonight I wanted to look at some different stages of uptrends, beginning with stocks.

0_spx

Even though stocks formed a swing high on Wednesday, they remain firmly in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

gld

Gold began to close above the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower last Friday. Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 21, but did not close below the lower daily cycle band. Now that gold has closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday, this establishes that gold is in a new daily uptrend. Gold should remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

gdx

The Miners also began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to peaking on day 16. Like gold, the Miners did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. If he Miners can now close back above the upper daily cycle band it too, will have established a new daily uptrend.

image

Conversely, the dollar’s decline into the YCL is stretching its daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. The downtrend has been characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Even though the dollar has formed a swing low and appears to have begun a new daily cycle, the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 8/04/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The decline into the YCL is stretching the daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. At this point we need to see a close above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks peaked on day 19 and has since been forming a mini triangle consolidation.

1) Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Friday.
2) A break above 2484.04 signals that day 19 was the half cycle low.
3) Stocks are clearly in a daily uptrend.
4) Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 7/28/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar continued lower this week printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 46.

At 46 days the dollar is very deep in its timing band for a DCL so once a swing low forms it has good odds of marking the DCL. A break above 93.95 forms a swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 19. A new high on day 19 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation.

The daily oscillators have turned bearish signaling an impending daily cycle decline. A break below the day 19 high of 2459.93 would form a daily swing high to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. However, Friday’s 413 million Buying on Strength point to stocks continuing higher. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Suspicion

0 miner surprise

On Wednesday the Miners broke bullishly from being squeezed by the 50 DMA & the 10 DMA. The Miners broke above the 10 DMA, 50 DMA & the 200 DMA. They also closed above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend.

1 gdx daily short term

This breakout reminds me of the June breakout.

2 gdx longer view

June 6th the Miners broke above the 10 DMA, 50 DMA & the 200 DMA. They also closed convincingly above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend. But the Miners delivered a bearish signal on June 6th by printing 356 million in SOS. That eventually lead to the Miners dropping over 9% and printing an extended 45 day DCL on 7/10/17.

This makes me suspicious of the current breakout.

3 gdx sos

Prior to Wednesday there had been 897 million in Selling On Strength. Wednesday the Miners printed another 289 million in SOS. This has me suspicious of a repeat performance.

4 gdx trend line

While the Miners did print a higher low on July 10th, I will need to see a clear and convincing break above the declining trend line to be persuaded that the Miners are in a new daily uptrend.

The 7/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar continued lower this week, printing a lower low on Friday.

Friday was day 42, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break above the declining 10 day MA should signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline.

If stocks deliver bearish follow through to Friday’s swing high that would make day 14 the cycle peak. A peak on day 14 favors a left translated cycle formation. With the intermediate cycle on week 37, a left translated cycle would likely lead to the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks would need to break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 to form a failed daily cycle. However, stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Left Translated Bond Cycle

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The intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 15 and then formed a weekly swing high that saw bonds break below the weekly trend line to confirm that bonds began their intermediate cycle decline.

tlt_weekly

The rally over the past 2 weeks has been enough for bonds to form a weekly swing low. A weekly swing low could indicate a new intermediate cycle but that would mean that bonds printed a 16 week intermediate cycle. Since the intermediate bond cycle normally runs 18 – 26 weeks, I am suspicious that this 2 week rally in bonds may only be a counter trend rally that will set up the declining weekly trend line.

In order for that to happen then the current daily cycle will need to form as a left translated daily cycle.

tlt_daily

Thursday was day 9 for the daily bond cycle. The new high on day 9 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. Bonds would need to have to roll over immediately in order to maintain the possibility of a left translated cycle formation.

Bonds did print an exhaustion candle on Thursday. A swing high here would signal that bonds were beginning their daily cycle decline. Bonds did not close above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. Since bonds began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 19 low means that bonds had begun a daily downtrend. So if bonds were to form a swing high then they will remain in their daily downtrend which would likely result in a left translated cycle formation.

Miner Update

0 miner surprise

The Miners broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

1 gdx daily

I have received some emails asking if the Miners have also began a new intermediate cycle. There is no evidence on the daily chart to suggest that the Miners are in a new intermediate cycle. In fact, the Miners are currently in a daily downtrend, which is characterized by lows forming below the lower daily cycle band and highs forming below the upper daily cycle band. The Miners will need to close above the upper daily cycle band to signal a new intermediate cycle.

So while there is no evidence pointing to the Miners being in a new intermediate cycle, there is a weekly swing low that has formed which does open the possibility that the intermediate low has printed.

2 gdx weekly

The Miners formed a weekly swing low on Monday. Our weekly cycle count places the Miners on week 11, which is too early for an intermediate cycle low. Only a close above the declining 50 week MA would change that view.

The Selling on Strength numbers also support that the Miners are still seeking out their intermediate cycle low.

3 gdx sos

Monday was day 5 for the new Miner cycle. Four of the past five days were bullish for the Miners. However, four of the past five days saw the Miners print large Selling on Strength numbers. And these large SOS numbers are the type of numbers associated with an intermediate decline.

The 7/17/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 28. It has formed a swing low but has been contained by the 10 day MA so it is not clear if day 28 hosted a DCL.

A break above the declining trend line is needed to confirm day 28 hosted the DCL. But a break below the day 28 low of 95.22 will extend the daily cycle decline which would make Friday day 36. That aligns with 6 of the previous 8 daily cycles exceeding 30 days. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing low and closed above the declining trend line on Wednesday. Then provided bullish follow through on Thursday to confirm that day 29 hosted an early DCL.

Stocks continued higher, closing at an all time high on Friday. While the status of the intermediate cycle has us expecting a left translated daily cycle formation, the fact remains that stocks are in a daily uptrend. The will continue it their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report