Dollar Update

The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. Wednesday was day 33 for the dollar’s daily cycle.  That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. 

The dollar delivered bearish follow through on by forming a swing high on Thursday. A break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar should go on to break below the rising blue trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a strong daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  

The 9/24/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The Fed decision to raise rates caused the dollar to break out to a 20 year high.  

Friday was day 30 for the dollar’s daily cycle.  The new high on day 30 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.  30 days also places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The dollar will need to form a swing high and break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a strong daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  

Stocks 

When stocks undercut the day 54 low last Friday, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicated a continuation of the daily cycle decline.

When stocks formed a swing low on Monday it looked, in real time, that the undercut-extended daily cycle low scenario was valid. Then stocks were rejected by the breakdown level on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through on Thursday and Friday. Therefore we will label day 54 as the DCL, making Friday day 13 of a failed daily cycle. And losing the breakdown level signals that stocks have entered a bloodbath phase. A break below the previous DCL of 3636.87 will form a failed daily cycle to signal the intermediate cycle decline.  

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Waiting On The Dollar

Gold peaked on August 10th, then began its daily cycle decline.

Gold printed its lowest point on day 30, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. While gold has formed a daily swing low, gold still needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks peaked on August 16th then began its daily cycle decline. Stocks formed a lower low on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline. Tuesday was day 54, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Both gold and stocks have been trading inversely with the dollar. The dollar bottomed on August 11th. And since the dollar began to rally, both gold and stocks began their respective daily cycle declines. I suspect that both gold and stocks are not likely to regain their footing until the dollar begins its daily cycle decline.

The 9/03/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar broke bullishly out of consolidation on Thursday. The new daily cycle high on day 15 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar did not deliver any bullish follow through on Friday. The dollar is overdue for a recognizable intermediate cycle decline.  A swing high and close below the 10 day MA would set the dollar up for a bull trap which could lead to the intermediate cycle decline. However, the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  

Stocks

Stocks are still seeking out the DCL.

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

Thursday was day 52, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks will need to close above the converging 50 day MA and 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.  But a break below the day 52 low of 3903.65 will extend the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

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The 8/27/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar became stretched above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

The dollar consolidated this week which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar then formed a bullish reversal on Friday off support from the rising 10 day MA. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  If the dollar forms a swing low above the upper daily cycle band that will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 108.82 will form a daily swing low.

Stocks

Stocks were rejected by the 10 day MA on Friday.

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday to break below Wednesday’s low. This negates the swing low formed on Thursday to extend the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 48, that places stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks have now retraced to the 38% fib level.  Stocks should break below the blue daily cycle trend line in order to complete their daily cycle decline. However, we need to be alert to the possibility of the 50 day MA providing support for the DCL to form. Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and beings a daily downtrend.

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The 8/20/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday and Friday to signal the new daily cycle.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Stocks

Stocks ran into resistance at the 200 day MA on Tuesday and formed a swing high on Wednesday.

Stocks delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 43, placing stocks deep their timing band for a daily cycle low.  Stocks will need to turn the 10 day MA lower before the DCL can form. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their DCL. However, we could see the 50 day MA provide support for the DCL to form.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daly uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band. 

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New Dollar Daily Cycle

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 32. That placed it in its timing band for a DCL.

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday, closing back above the 50 day MA.  The dollar delivered bullish follow through on Monday by closing above the 10 day MA and the daily cycle trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.  The dollar is currently deep in its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.  Therefore our expectation is to see this new daily cycle left translate and fail in order to complete the intermediate cycle decline.

PreviewThe 8/13/22 Weekend Report

The Dollar 

The dollar broke below the day 25 low on Wednesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 32, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA on Friday to signal the new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 32 as the DCL. The dollar should go on to break above the declining trend line as it rallies out of its DCL. The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.  

Stocks

Stocks broke above the 4150 resistance level on Monday then delivered bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 38, placing stocks deep their timing band for a daily cycle low.  Breakouts that come late in the daily cycle are almost always given back once the daily cycle decline begins. A swing high and close below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks will need to turn the 10 day MA lower before the DCL can form. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daly uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band. 

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The 8/06/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 25, to place it in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. 

The dollar formed a swing low and closed back above the 10 day MA on Wednesday to signal that day 25 was the DCL.  The dollar should go on to turn the 10 day MA higher as it rallies out of its DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday.

Friday was day 33, that places stocks in their timing band for a DCL.

If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the accelerated (dashed) trend line, that would signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The 7/23/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Monday then continued lower through Friday.

Friday was day 18 for the daily dollar cycle, which places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. The dollar really needs to turn the 10 day MA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. However, the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then it will remain in its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would label day 18 as a half cycle low. A break above 107.25 will form a daily swing low.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on Tuesday, then continued higher through Friday.

The new high on day 23 assures us of a right translated daily cycle.  Stocks are a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may crawl along the 50 day MA to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  However, a close below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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