The 12/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. This indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday. At 12 days, that is too early to expect a DCL. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday. It is likely that this is a counter trend rally to back test the 50 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks delivered sell signals on Thursday. But breaking to a new high on Friday to negate the daily swing high.

Friday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. It also solidifies the daily cycle trend line. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The 12/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, day 30. A swing low formed on Tuesday, setting up a possible daily cycle low.

Monday was day 30, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However, if the dollar breaks below the day 30 low of 92.43, that will extend the daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA after emerging from its daily cycle low.

Friday’s volatility caused stocks to back test the 10 day MA.

The large Buying on Weakness number indicates that Friday was a half cycle low. A swing low here will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Potential

0 miner surprise

The dollar has not yet confirmed a new daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. While the dollar breached the declining trend line, it needs to break convincingly above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However any dollar rally is likely to be short lived. The dollar is in a confirmed intermediate cycle decline. Therefore our expectation is for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

And the dollar declining into an intermediate cycle low is typically bullish for precious.

Thursday was day 18 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a DCL. A break above 22.53 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA would confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners can potentially form a right translated cycle that prints a higher low. That would indicate that November did host the intermediate cycle low and that the Miners are beginning a new daily uptrend. The Miners would then need to close are the upper daily cycle band in order to establish a new daily uptrend.

Miner Expectations

0 miner surprise

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL.

So the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. This was week 12 for the dollar’s weekly cycle. That means that the dollar can trend lower for another 6 to 12 weeks before printing its intermediate cycle low. Which is plenty of time for the dollar to print at least one more failed daily cycle.

The Miners responded to the dollar printing a swing low by forming a bearish reversal off the declining 50 day MA.

Tuesday was day 15 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners 3 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners have been trying to close above the 50 day MA for the last 3 trading sessions. On Tuesday the Miners were rejected by the declining 50 day MA and then went on to close below the 200 day MA. With the dollar apparently beginning a new daily cycle it is quite likely that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. A break below 22.92 will form a swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The Miners did print a new daily cycle high on Tuesday. A new high on day 15 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. The Miners beginning to form right translated daily cycles would align with the declining into an intermediate cycle low.

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 11/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 17. It printed is lowest on Wednesday, day 23, forming a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA.

The dollar is in its timing band for a DCL. It did form a swing low on Thursday, but broke lower on Friday. The dollar still needs to close back above the declining 10 day MA in order to confirm that day 23 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Friday so it does remain in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

After peaking on day 54 stocks broke lower, printing their lowest point on Wednesday. At 60 days, that places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday that broke above the declining trend line and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that day 60 was the daily cycle low.

We need to keep in mind that stocks printed a large SOS number on Thursday. The 701 million selling on strength is the type of number that will be printed prior to an intermediate cycle decline. It is certainly not the type of number the we typically see as stocks emerge from a daily cycle low. Stocks followed that up by closing back below the 10 day MA on Friday. The take away here is there is uncertainty of whether or not stocks still have more to correct or if stocks are preparing to form a left translated daily cycle. But for now, Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The 11/10/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed an new high on Tues, day 17, assuring us of a right translated cycle formation.

The dollar formed daily swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday. The dollar continued lower on Friday to breach the daily cycle trend line and turn the 10 day MA lower which indicates that the dollar is ready to decline into its daily cycle low. Still, the dollar is in a daily uptrend & will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

On Thursday we discussed how the bearish divergences on the daily oscillators was calling into question whether day 45 hosted the DCL.

So we specified the criteria that needed to be met to change the label of a day 45 DCL.

Stocks did not deliver the bearish follow through that was necessary to meet the criteria for changing the day 45 RT label. Which makes Friday day 12 for the daily equity cycle.

And the significant Buying on Weakness number supports the day 12 labeling. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band remaining firmly in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 11/03/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The breakout to a new high on day 10 caused the dollar to be extended above the 10 day MA.

The dollar consolidated this week, allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar back tested the 10 day MA on Friday and then rallied into the close. Friday was day 15 for the daily dollar cycle. A break above the day 10 high of 95.06 will shift the odds toward a right translated cycle formation. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher this week, printing a new high on Friday. This convinces me that day 45 hosted the daily cycle low.

We need to acknowledge the change that has happened to stocks. The decline into the intermediate cycle low in August was mild in terms of percentage of decline as well as length of the decline, lasting only 9 days. Since then stocks have corrected for only 3 to 4 days before resuming their daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Another Miner Low

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 18, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line would signal a new daily cycle. However, with this being only week 16 for the intermediate Miner cycle, the Miners need one more daily cycle to bring them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That sets up an expectation for the new daily cycle to form in a left translated manner. The Miners are in a daily downtrend and will remain in their downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The dollar may be instrumental as to whether or not the Miners break out of their daily downtrend.

Monday was day 12 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar formed a swing high on Monday but still closed above the upper daily cycle band maintaining its daily uptrend. While it is possible that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline, I believe that the dollar got a bit too stretched above the 10 day MA. Which would make it likely that the dollar will drift lower into a half cycle low, allowing the Miners to confirm a new daily cycle. Then once the 10 day MA catches up to price, the dollar rallies. Which would send the Miners lower to complete their intermediate cycle decline.