The 10/20/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday to confirm that day 24 hosted the DCL which makes Friday day 5 of the new daily cycle.

The dollar established a daily uptrend prior to the drop into the daily cycle low. By closing back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday affirms the daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday and appear to have begun a new daily cycle.

A decline into a daily cycle low normally lasts 7 to 15 days. The peak on day 40 is an extremely right translated daily cycle formation which does not leave much time in the normal timing band for a normal daily cycle decline. We also discussed how the behavior of previous 2 intermediate cycle has changed because they did not produce a failed daily cycle. Unless proven otherwise this change in behavior is filtering down to the daily cycle level as evidenced by the 1 day decline into a daily cycle low.

Part of our evidence that stocks printed a 1 day daily cycle decline is that both the Russell and the transports delivered a more recognizable daily cycle decline. All three have formed swing lows and closed back above their respective 10 day MA’s to signal new daily cycles. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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The 10/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Friday’s bullish reversal at support off the 50 day MA sets up for a daily cycle low to form. 

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 24.  That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low.  A  break above 93.09 forms a daily swing low.  A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend & will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher printing a new high on Friday, day 37.


 

Stocks are in their timing band for a seeking a DCL.  At this point a swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

A Miner Rally

0 miner surprise

Last week we discussed how the Miners formed a daily cycle low. We also discussed that the dollar emerging out of a potential yearly cycle low would likely cause a left translated cycle formation. So today I wanted to take a follow up look at the Miners.

The Miners did close above the 50 day MA on Friday and provided more bullish follow through on Tuesday. However the Miners printed 170 million SOS on Friday and 108 million SOS on Monday. Typically these types of Selling on Strength numbers are associated with an intermediate cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners printed another higher high. But, Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing high. Since the Miners are already in a daily downtrend, a swing high here will allow the Miners to remain in their daily downtrend. A break below 23.53 would form a daily swing high. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The 10/06/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday, setting up a potential move down into a daily cycle low.

Friday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing the dollar in its timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 93.60 will form a daily swing high. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

trend line

Stocks
stocks

Thursday’s new high on day 31 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for seeking out a daily cycle low. A swing high and trend line break will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 2540.02 would form a daily swing high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

A Miner Low

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

Tuesday’s swing low formed off of the day 59 low, which places the Miner very deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Therefore Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of being the day 1 of the new daily cycle.

There are other indicators that signal Tuesday was day one of the new daily cycle. First off the Miners formed a swing low off of support for the 200 day MA. Another signal is that the Miners closed above the lower daily cycle band. There is also bullish divergences developing on the daily oscillators that we see at cycle lows. Now we need to see a close above the declining 10 day MA to confirm Monday as the daily cycle low.

Assuming that the Miners confirm the new daily cycle, what is happening with the dollar will likely cause headwinds for the Miners.

The dollar has formed a monthly swing low off the month 16 low. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a yearly cycle low. So the monthly swing low has a good chance of marking the yearly cycle low, meaning that the dollar is beginning a new yearly cycle. And the dollar emerging into a new yearly cycle will likely have a deflationary effect on the Miners.

The 9/29/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar continued higher, closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday. That ends the daily downtrend and signals that day 26 also hosted the intermediate cycle low. The dollar then printed a bearish reversal on Thursday and followed up by forming a daily swing high. A close back below the 50 day MA will signal that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks made a brief 3 day decline resulting in a close below the 10 day MA on Monday. Monday was only day 24, which is too early for a daily cycle low. And since that decline did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower, we will label Monday as a half cycle low.

With Monday being the half cycle low, that allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Now a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline. But the new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band. The strategy in a daily uptrend is to buy the dips.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Close, But No Cigar

The Miners came close to forming a daily swing low on Friday.

Close, but no cigar …

The Miners rallied on Friday to gain 1.12% on the day. While the Miners failed to form a daily swing low, they did regain the 50 day MA and close above the lower daily cycle band delivering the first signals that day 52 hosted the daily cycle low.

So a swing low has good odds of forming the daily cycle low, which is a buying signal. But there are some signals developing that indicate that the Miners have begun an intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band Thursday and Friday, which signals the start of the intermediate cycle decline. On the weekly chart we can see that the Miners have formed a weekly swing high and delivered a break below the weekly trend line. Both of which indicate that the Miners are in an intermediate cycle decline. And this is before the dollar beings to rally out of its intermediate cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on week 31, placing it deep in its timing band for an ICL. So while a new daily dollar cycle has begun, the dollar still needs to form a weekly swing low and break above the declining weekly trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle. And if the dollar’s intermediate rally begins to develop some traction, that will surely send the Miners lower.

The 9/22/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar finally broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL.

The dollar’s highest point so far was Wednesday, day 8. If the dollar fails to break above Wednesday’s high of 92.50 then it will form another left translated daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday, day 21. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation and provides more evidence that August 21st hosted the ICL.

After printing a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, stocks drifted lower into Friday. But Friday’s bullish closed allowed stocks to remain above the 10 day MA. If a swing low forms then that would indicate that Thursday was a very mild half cycle low. If stocks continue lower and break below Wednesdays’ low of 2496.67 that will form a swing high to indicate the daily cycle decline. However, stocks remain locked in a daily uptrend so any dip is a buying opportunity. Stocks will continue it its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Change in Expectation

0 miner surprise

On Monday we discussed hunting for a Miner buying signal. Since then the Miners have continued lower and have changed our expectations.

The peak on day 42 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. But since then the Miners have delivered some bearish signals. First off the Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band. A close below the lower daily cycle band indicates and end to the daily uptrend and the start of the intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners delivered a second bearish signal on Thursday by closing below the 50 day MA. With the Miners being very deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low the rising 50 day MA should have provided support for a daily cycle low to form.

There are also bearish signals developing on the weekly chart.

The Miners have formed a weekly swing high and has broke below the weekly trend line to signal that the intermediate decline has started. Therefore once the daily cycle low forms we will be watching for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated failed daily cycle.

The odds of a left translated daily cycle formation for the Miners will certainly increase if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle.

Week 31 remains as the lowest point, placing the dollar late in its timing band to form an ICL. The dollar has confirmed that it began a new daily cycle. So a weekly swing low and a break above the declining 10 week MA will confirm the new intermediate cycle. A break above 92.69 will form a weekly swing low. And if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle that should send the Miners to seek out their intermediate cycle low.

The 9/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed it lowest point the previous Fri, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar failed this week to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

The status of the dollar’s daily cycle is unclear. Friday was either day 5 or day 31. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle, which would make Friday day 5. Unless that happens that means that the daily cycle is still declining into its daily cycle low making Friday day 31.

What is clear is that the dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

The new high on Friday, day 18, is shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

While stocks did not form a failed daily cycle as it printed the 8/21 low, all other evidence is indicating that the intermediate low has been set. Stocks are closing above the upper daily cycle band confirming the daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report