The 4/28/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke below the previous DCL on Tuesday to form a failed daily cycle.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days. Tuesday, day 20, was the lowest point following the day 10 peak. So it is a bit early for a daily cycle low. But we will see on the weekly chart that the dollar has found support at the 50 week MA. (The weekly, yearly, 3 year, and 15 year super cycle is discussed in the Weekend Report) Therefore, a swing low and break of the daily cycle trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. The new high on day 21, shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to cool off. A break below the 10 day MA will signal that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 4/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 10 peak. The swing low that formed on Friday signals an early daily cycle low.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days/cycle so we are expecting more downside to this daily cycle. However yearly chart* shows that the dollar is sitting right on the yearly cycle trend lineā€¦ which could act as support for a shortened daily cycle low. And if Thursday turns out to be the daily cycle low, then that would indicate that March 27th hosted the ICL.

*Editor’s note:
The weekly, yearly, 3 year and 15 year super cycle analysis is a regular part of the Weekend Report.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continue to be suppressed by the declining trend line.

The current daily cycle peaked on day 7. Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band last Friday, day 13. This signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL once 2322.25 is breached.

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Dollar Weakness

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The dollar broke decisively lower on Tuesday.

$$$ daily

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. That re-afirms that the dollar is in a daily downtrend. It also signals that the dollar is in the grip of an intermediate cycle decline. Tuesday was day 15 for the dollar’s daily cycle. With the dollar’s daily cycle averaging 33 days, that suggests that the dollar could trend lower for another 3 to 4 weeks before printing its DCL.

$$$ Weekly

The rally out of the week 24 low was weak and did not allow us to be certain if the ICL printed. Then the dollar broke below the week 24 low in March. The rejection by the declining weekly trend line convinces me that week 24 hosted the ICL and the rally out of the March low was just a counter-trend rally. That would make this week 11 for the intermediate dollar cycle. Since this intermediate cycle has already failed, the way for the dollar is lower. Once the current daily cycle forms a low, there is enough time in the intermediate cycle to allow for one more failed daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle low.

The 4/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high and then closed below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Friday was day 13 for the daily dollar cycle. The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 33 days. So with a peak on day 10, this daily cycle is likely to form as a left translated daily cycle and continue the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday to indicate that stocks are declining into their daily cycle low.

Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals an end to the daily uptrend. It is also a reliable indicator that the intermediate cycle is in decline. The peak on day 7 locks in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below 2322.25 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle is in decline. And something to keep in mind is that the previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL next week.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 4/07/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The new high on Friday, day 9, begins to shift the likelihood towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar broke convincingly higher on Friday. The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band which signals an end to the daily downtrend and indicates that 3/27/17 hosted the ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke above the declining trend line this week to signal that day 58 hosted the DCL.

So far the rally out of the day 58 DCL has been weak. The bearish reversal on Wednesday, day 7, sets up the potential for an extremely left translated daily cycle formation. This is the 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. We are watching for a left translated daily cycle formation to set up a decline into the ICL. A break below 2322.25 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline. But there were two strong BOW days this week that signals that stocks will make one more push higher. A possible scenario would be a break higher to get everybody “on the wrong side of the boat”. Followed by the final decline into the ICL.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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The 4/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the peak on day 19. Wednesday’s close above the declining 10 day MA signaled a new daily cycle.

While the previous daily cycle peaked on day 19 for a right translated cycle formation, it printed a lower high. And Monday’s break below the previous DCL establishes a pattern of lower lows. That signals a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday. A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks are beginning their 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. And stocks are in their timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline. What we need to watch is the translation of the new daily cycle. A left translated cycle formation would signal that stocks are declining into its intermediate cycle low.

Stocks remained above the lower daily cycle band is it declined into the day 58 low. Therefore stocks remain in a daily uptrend and will continue in their daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Miner Top

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The Miners rallied out of the early March low but were halted by the 50 day MA on 3/17.

gdx Mon

The Miners preceded to consolidate below the 50 day MA and began to be squeezed by the convergence of the 50 day MA and the rising 10 day MA.

That convergence was resolved on Tuesday.

gdx tues

The Miners established a daily downtrend by closing below the lower daily cycle band as the declined into the early March DCL. Since they failed to close above the upper daily cycle band during this past leg up, they remain in a daily downtrend. With the Miners approaching their timing band for the daily cycle low, Tuesday’s close below the 10 day MA signals the start of their daily cycle decline.

And part of what is driving the Miners lower is the dollar.

x $$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 19 peak. Day 36 places the dollar well within its timing band to print a DCL. Tuesday’s swing low very likely means that Monday hosted the DCL. And as the dollar rallies out of its DCL that will help to push the Miners lower.

Possible Turning Points

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The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday forming a failed daily cycle.

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Monday was day 36 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar late in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 99.33 forms a daily swing low which has good odds of marking the DCL. A close back above the declining 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks also printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

spx

Monday was day 58 for the daily equity cycle, which is late in its timing band for stocks to form a daily cycle low. Stocks finally broke the daily cycle trend line, which needed to happen in order for stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. And once again, the bullish reversal has eased the parameters for stocks to form a daily swing low. A break above 2344.90 forms a daily swing low, which should mark the DCL. Then a close back above the declining 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle.

And not only are both the dollar and stocks forming daily cycle lows, but I think that we will find that both are also in the process of forming intermediate cycle lows as well. I plan to discuss the weekly cycles for both the dollar and stocks in Wednesday’s Mid-Week Report.

The 3/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar is getting late in its timing band to form a daily cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 19 peak. The dollar’s daily cycle has averaged 31 days since printing its yearly cycle low in May. Friday was day 30, placing the dollar in its timing band to a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break above 100.28 will form a daily swing low. Then a close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Since the declining trend line is over 1.6% away we will use a close above the declining 50 day MA as confirmation of a new daily cycle.

1 $$$ d aily 00

The peak on day 19 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation and the the February DCL also hosted an intermediate cycle low. But by closing below the lower daily cycle band, that ends the daily uptrend and is a signal that the next daily cycle may form as a left translated cycle.

Stocks
stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 40, formed a swing high then broke below the (red-dashed) accelerated trend line to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 46. That was not enough to break below the (black) daily cycle trend line. But 46 days places stocks in the later stage of its timing band for a daily cycle low. There were other indicators that day 46 hosted the DCL including the TSI bearish zero line crossover prior to day 46 and the bullish TSI zero line crossover following day 46. Stocks also closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Wednesday providing more confirmation that Day 46 hosted the DCL.

Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Conundrum

screenshot_1394

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday after peaking back in February. While the daily cycle count for Miners has become obscured, either count places Thursday in the timing band or very late in the timing band for a daily cycle low.

gdx

The Miners did form a swing low on Friday. Our preferred tool for confirming a new daily cycle is a trend line break. But with the declining trend line over 14% above price we then look for a close above the 10 day MA, which marginally occurred on Monday. Had the rally out of Thursday’s low been more robust then I would be inclined to label it as a DCL. I suspect that the Miners will print one more lower low in order to form its impending daily cycle low.

And we have the dollar rallying out of a low to thank for this Miner conundrum.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 19 and then began its daily cycle decline. The dollar found support at the 50 day MA and printed a swing low on Tuesday. Monday was day 26, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close above the declining trend line will confirm Monday as the DCL.