Gold Uptrend

Gold is demonstrating a bullish change in behavior.

Prior to printing the late December DCL, gold was in a pattern of printing lows below the lower daily cycle band. That is characteristic of a daily downtrend. Since the late December low that pattern has changed. Gold is now forming highs above the upper daily cycle band and lows are now forming above the lower daily cycle band. This is characteristic of gold being in a daily uptrend. Gold will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The Sky Is Falling

Stocks closed below the previous DCL on Thursday to form a failed daily cycle. 

Stocks continued lower on Friday to close below the 200 day MA. Friday was day 32, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. A swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA would signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report I discuss how the failed daily cycle impacts the status of the intermediate cycle as well as the status of the yearly cycle.

Miner Volatility

The status of the daily Miners cycle is not clear. Closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday indicates the day 16 hosted an early DCL. But then the Miners lost the 50 day MA on Thursday and formed a swing high on Friday.

A close below the 10 day MA will signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline. However, the Miners formed a bullish reversal off the 10 day MA on Friday. The Miners are currently in daily uptrend. If they form a swing low and close back above the 50 day MA then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. If this occurs then we will label day 16 as an early DCL.  

Bearish Reversal

Forming a swing low and closing back above the 50 day MA on Tuesday looked, in real time, as if day 24 hosted an early DCL. That was negated on Thursday.

Stocks were rejected by the declining 10 day MA and formed a lower swing high on Thursday to close below the 50 day MA. This sets up the declining trend line and indicates a continuation of the daily cycle decline — which makes Thursday, day 27.

With price below the 10 week MA and the 10 week MA beginning to turn lower, this can turn into an intermediate cycle decline and the long over due yearly cycle decline, which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report.

Swing Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 24, which is a bit early to expect a DCL to form. But as we discussed on Monday, stocks have otherwise satisfied the criteria for a DCL. And with stocks being in a daily uptrend, forming a swing low and closing above the 50 day MA indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal. Therefore we will label day 24 as the DCL. Stocks should go on to break above the 10 day MA and turn it higher as they rally out of their DCL.

Daily Cycle Low?

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle, which is a bit early to expect a DCL to form. However, stocks closed below the 10 day MA turning it lower, closed below the 50 day MA, and retraced well past the 61% fib level. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 50 day MA then we will label day 24 as an early DCL. Stocks have been in a daily uptrend. If they form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4673.02 will form a daily swing low.

Stocks Found Support

Stocks printed a huge bearish candle on Wednesday, forming a swing high and closing below the 4700 level to signal the daily cycle decline. With stocks overdue for a yearly cycle low this could send stocks to seek out their YCL.  

But instead of delivering bearish follow through, stocks found support at the rising 50 day MA on Thursday.

Thursday was only day 22 for the daily cycle, which is too early to expect a DCL to form. While stocks broke below the 38 fib level, they should still turn the 10 day MA before they form their DCL. So any bounce off the 50 day MA should be contained by the 10 day MA so stocks can complete their daily cycle decline.

However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA then that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Under this scenario, we would label day 22 as an early DCL.

The 12/24/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear. While the dollar formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on day 22, it did not do ‘enough’ for us to label day 22 as the DCL.  

However, the dollar is behaving as if day 22 was the DCL.  The dollar has been trading in a narrow range for the past 3 week plus weeks.   The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday then backtested it on Thursday.  A bearish break out of consolidation will signal the daily cycle decline. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks rallied to close above the 4715 resistance level on Thursday.

Closing above the 4715 resistance level was our signal to add to positions. Stops can now be raised to the rising 10 day MA. RSI 05 formed a quick bullish reversal on Monday. We are now watching to see if RSI 05 will embed in overbought to indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. A quick bearish reversal will be a signal that stocks are shifting into the declining phase of their intermediate cycle.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 12/18/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear.

While the dollar formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on day 22, it did not do ‘enough’ for us to label day 22 as the DCL. It has been 3 weeks and the dollar has been crawling along the 10 day MA, no doubt due to the heavy manipulation in the currency markets. So we may need to turn to the weekly chart for more clarity. (The weekly chart can be found in The Weekend Report) What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

It is concerning that since forming its DCL, stocks have been unable to deliver any bullish follow through.

We need to keep in mind that stocks are on month 21 for the yearly cycle. Which means that stocks are way overdue for a yearly cycle decline. Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. A close below the 50 day MA will trigger our stop. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend, potentially beginning the yearly cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Still Waiting …

On Monday we discussed that we were waiting on a close above the 4720 resistance level to add to positions. We are still waiting.

Stocks had gapped up over the 10 day MA last week during the initial surge out of its DCL. Stocks retraced a bit on Tuesday, backfilling that gap.

Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A close above 4660.47 will form a daily swing low. The plan remains the same. Add on a close above resistance and use a close below the rising 50 day MA as the stop.