Stocks Lose Support

Stocks closed below support on Monday.

Monday was day 52 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks deep in their timing band for their DCL. A swing low and close back above the support level would signal the DCL. However, closing below the support level could trigger a 5 to 7 day bloodbath phase as stocks hunt their DCL.

In the Weekend Report I take a look at the bigger picture for stocks. I discuss what this decline into this daily cycle low means in terms of the intermediate and yearly cycles. And why I believe that the best opportunity for gains for the year is still in front of us. 

This week I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

Opportunity Knocking

Stocks broke below the February low this week.

If February was the yearly cycle low, then the first intermediate cycle should right translate. Instead, stocks peaked on what would have been week 5 then went on to break below the February low this week.

And – if February was the intermediate cycle low, then the first daily cycle should right translate. Instead, stocks printed consecutive failed daily cycles, beginning a pattern of lower lows.

In the Weekend Report I take a look at the bigger picture for stocks. I discuss what the consecutive failed daily cycle means in terms of the intermediate and yearly cycles. And why I believe that the best opportunity for gains for the year is still in front of us.

This week I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. click here.

Looks Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

After rallying for an almost 3% gain on the Fed rate hike on Wednesday, stocks gave it all back and then some on Thursday.

This is beginning to look like the late February DCL. The powerful thrust out of the day 22 low indicated a ‘V’ shape bottom. Then stocks got hammered and trended lower until they consolidated which allowed the 10 day MA to flatten out. And it looks like stocks will need to consolidate which will help to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before the rally into the new daily cycle can gain any traction.

Update – Stocks Still Seeking out Their DCL

Stocks broke below the day 33 low on Monday to extend their daily cycle decline.

Monday was day 36, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s narrow range day has eased the parameters for forming a swing low.

A break above 4410.31 will form a swing low. Then a close above the 50 day MA will have us label day 36 as the DCL.

Stocks Lose The 50 Day MA

Stocks lost the 50 day MA on Monday.

Stocks broke below the day 29 low on Monday to extend their daily cycle decline. Monday was day 32, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. A swing low and recovery of the 50 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks manage to form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band that would indicate that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Stocks Deliver A Bearish Trend Line Break

Stocks closed below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday.

We discussed on Monday how stocks formed a swing low to trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stocks negated that buy signal on Tuesday by forming a swing high and closing below the daily cycle trend line. Tuesday was day 27, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the 200 day MA that will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Gold Delivers Bearish Follow Through

Gold closed below the 10 day MA on Monday.

Gold ran into resistance at the 2100 level last week. We discussed on Thursday that a close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline. Gold should go on to turn the 10 day MA lower as is seeks out its DCL. However, gold is in a daily uptrend. If gold forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Volatility

I believe that stocks printed their daily cycle low on Thursday and quite possibly their intermediate cycle low on Thursday as well.

One of the criteria for an intermediate cycle low is for stocks to form a weekly swing low, which they did. However stocks will need to break through some resistance before we can be assured that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Stocks are facing resistance from the 50 week MA and 10 week MA. Stocks will likely be volatile until they are able to break through this resistance. A close above the 10 week MA will have us label week 20 as the intermediate cycle low.

Stocks Deliver Sell Signal

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday.

Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend that is characterized by highs forming below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal. The peak on day 7 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle.

Miner Buy Signal

On Saturday we discussed that we were looking for a potential buy signal for the Miners. The Miners delivered that buy signal on Monday.

The Miners printed their l lowest point on day 30, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. We were looking for a close above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to use as our buy signal to indicate that day 30 was the daily cycle low.

The next obvious area of resistance will be the declining 200 day MA. We will use a close above the 200 day MA as a place to add.