The Dollar

 
The dollar printed a bearish reversal on day 8 then delivered bearish follow through on Monday by closing below the converging 50 day MA and 10 day MA. 
 

Closing below the converging 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Monday confirmed the daily cycle decline. The dollar continue lower to close below the 200 day MA on Thursday. With a peak on day 8, closing below the 200 day MA looked like the dollar would be rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline. But then the ECB intervened — causing the dollar to close convincingly above the 200 day MA on Friday. While 13 days is too early to expect a DCL, the manipulation in the currency markets could force an early DCL. A break above 97.82 will form a swing low to signal the new daily cycle.

The dollar did close below the lower daily cycle band. That does end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend. It also signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

Stocks

 
 
Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Monday to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.
 

 
 
Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, following the day 39 peak. That was day 42, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.  A swing low formed on Wednesday. Then stocks closed back above the 10 day MA to confirm day 42 as the DCL.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Miner Surprise

The Miners delivered a bullish surprise on Tuesday.

We discussed on Monday that the Miners broke below the lower daily cycle band to signal a continuation of its daily cycle decline. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also delivered the expectation for the Miners to break below the day 20 low in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Instead of breaking lower on Tuesday, the Miners delivered a bullish surprise by closing up 2.21% for the day.

The volatility over the past 2 weeks has obscured our daily cycle count. A break below the day 20 low would have had us label Tuesday as day 29. But Tuesday’s bullish surprise keeps the door open for the daily cycle count to be day 9. And if the daily cycle count is day 9, that would indicate that the Miners have left behind their intermediate cycle low.

The Miners printed their lowest point on week 28, to place them deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While the Miners formed a weekly swing low, they still need to deliver a clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line to signal the new intermediate cycle. A close above the 10 week MA will confirm the intermediate cycle low. The Miners are in a weekly uptrend. Since the weekly swing low formed above the lower weekly cycle band — the Miners remain in their weekly uptrend and triggered a weekly cycle band buy signal. A break above the multi year resistance level indicates a resumption of the bull market.

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The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

Miner Breakdown

The Miners broke below the lower daily cycle band on Monday.

We discussed on Thursday how the Miners were rejected by the 50 day MA and formed a swing high. They closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a continuation of its daily cycle decline. The Miners delivered bearish follow through on Monday by closing below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band continues the daily downtrend

Monday was day 29 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners should break below the day 20 low of 25.98 in order to complete its daily cycle decline.

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Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

Oil Confirms Daily Cycle Decline

Oil had been consolidating below the 200 day MA for the past 2 plus weeks. A clear and convincing break above the 200 day MA would have had us label day 20 as the daily cycle low.

Instead oil delivered a clear and convincing daily swing high.

Oil printed its higher point on Monday, which was day 32 for the daily oil cycle. Oil formed a swing high on Tuesday that saw oil close below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. But if oil closes below the lower daily cycle band that will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

The 11/16/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar recovered the 50 day MA on the previous week but lost the 50 day MA on Friday.

The dollar peaked on day 17 then formed a swing high on Thursday. The dollar delivered bearish follow through on Friday by closing below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA signaling the daily cycle decline. The dollar’s inability to maintain the breakout above the 50 day MA signals trouble for the dollar. Currently the dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

After consolidating below the 3100 level stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 31 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The new high on day 31 locks in a right translated cycle formation, which gives us the expectation for stocks to print a higher daily cycle low. At this point a swing high and a close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Miner Progress

When we last discussed the Miners we observed that Tuesday’s bullish reversal could potentially signal the daily cycle low. Tonight we will review their progress.

The Miners followed Tuesday’s bullish reversal by forming a daily swing low on Wednesday. Tuesday was day 20, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Wednesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. On Thursday the Miners delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA. The Miners also delivered a bullish crossover on the True Strength Indicator, which is another signal that Tuesday hosted the DCL. A close above the declining 50 day MA will have us label day 20 as the daily cycle low.

Miner Reversal

The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The weekly chart shows that the Miners formed a weekly swing low off of the week 24 low. They followed up by delivering bullish follow through to indicate that week 24 was the intermediate cycle low. However, the Miners were contained by the 10 week MA and then broke below the week 24 low last week, which negated week 24 as the ICL. This week the Miners broke lower still but have now reversed and they are in the process of forming a bullish weekly reversal. This week 28 for the Miner’s intermediate cycle, which is getting late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

So not only does Tuesday’s bullish reversal potentially mark the daily cycle low, it also potentially marks the intermediate cycle low. Since the Miners formed a lower low this week, the earliest a weekly swing low can form will be next week. The Miners are currently in a weekly uptrend. If a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band then the Miners will remain in their weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.

Miner Update

The Miners printed their lowest point on 10/15. The Miners finally closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to signal that 10/15 was day daily cycle low.

But the Miner got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and saw some profit taking on Monday and Tuesday, which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. But the Miners closed for a gain on Tuesday. If the Miners deliver bullish flow though and form a swing low off of Tuesday’s candle, that will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line.

And the Junior Miners also looked bullish on Tuesday.

Like the Miners, the Junior Miners saw some profit taking after tagging the 50 day MA. But where the Miners only closed higher, the Junior Miners printed a bullish engulfing candle signaling that the Juniors are ready to trend higher.

The 10/19/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 25 to place it in the its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar did break below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report we will look at weekly chart and see that this is week 16 for the intermediate cycle, which is early to expect an ICL. Therefore it it possible to see a swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA next week to signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on day 6 and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and will probably need several days to cool off in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Closing above the upper daly cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Overhead Resistance For Oil – Revisited

Last week when we looked at oil we discussed two points.
1) That oil looked like it was beginning a new daily cycle.
2) The intermediate cycle set-up gave us the expectation that oil has begun its intermediate cycle decline.

Oil has closed above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA so we can label day 40 as the daily cycle low. However as we discussed last week the peak on week 6 sets oil up for a left translated weekly cycle formation. There is a bearish RSI pattern beginning to emerge on the daily chart that is associated with the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. And oil has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band. This indicates that oil is in a daily downtrend and is another signal that oil has begun its intermediate cycle decline.