The 4/28/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke below the previous DCL on Tuesday to form a failed daily cycle.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days. Tuesday, day 20, was the lowest point following the day 10 peak. So it is a bit early for a daily cycle low. But we will see on the weekly chart that the dollar has found support at the 50 week MA. (The weekly, yearly, 3 year, and 15 year super cycle is discussed in the Weekend Report) Therefore, a swing low and break of the daily cycle trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. The new high on day 21, shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to cool off. A break below the 10 day MA will signal that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Potential Oil Reversal

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Oil printed a bullish reversal on Thursday.

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 15. It printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 25. That places oil in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and a close above the declining 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

oil daily 2

Oil’s daily cycle has averaged 38 days since the February, 2016 low. So it is early to be looking for a DCL. But there are a few signals on the daily and weekly charts that point to a possible 25 day, DCL. First off, the aforementioned bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 49.22 forms a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle. Also the oscillators are beginning to develop bullish divergences, which often accompany cycle lows.

oil weekly

The 50 week MA has acted as support since oil emerged from from is 3 year cycle low. So there is a possibility that oil is back testing the 50 week MA. A close below the 50 week MA indicates that oil is continuing its yearly cycle decline. But if Thursday’s bullish reversal marked the daily cycle low, that would allow oil to close above the 50 week MA for the week, which would allow us to construct a weekly cycle trend line. Oil is in a weekly uptrend. It will continue in its weekly uptrend until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Look Test

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Stocks broke above the declining daily cycle trend line on Monday and then delivered more bullish follow through on Tuesday.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 20 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on Tuesday shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are also beginning to close back again above the upper daily cycle band to reestablish its daily uptrend. All of this suggests that stocks are not just in a new daily cycle, but a new intermediate cycle as well.

However, many will be skeptical of such a labeling due to the fact that stocks did not form a failed daily cycle during the recent sell-off.

It is possible for an intermediate low to form absent of a failed daily cycle. While this is rare, one did occur back in 2013.

spx daily 2013

Back in 2013 stocks had a daily cycle decline that ran 23 days before printing its daily cycle low. Usually a daily cycle decline lasts 7 – 15 days.

spx weekly 2013

And the weekly chart back in 2013 passed the ‘look test’ for an intermediate decline. Stocks clearly broke below the weekly trend line and formed a weekly swing low to indicate a new intermediate cycle.

spx weeekly

And the current weekly chart also passes the look test. Stocks clearly broke below the weekly trend line as it declined into its week 21 low. Now stocks have delivered a clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line to signal that this is week 4 of the new intermediate cycle. And if I am correct that this is a new intermediate cycle then that should push the yearly cycle low out to late summer.

Trend Line Breaks

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The market delivered some trend line breaks on Monday.

Let’s begin with gold.

1 gld dialy

The daily gold cycle peaked on day 25. While a daily swing high formed the next day, gold essentially traded sideways until Monday when gold broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle is in decline. Gold has averaged about 33 days for its last 10 daily cycles. So with Monday being day 30 that places gold right in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. One possible scenario would be for gold to form a daily cycle low at the convergence of the 200 day and 50 day MA.

Bonds have a similar set up.

2 tlt daily

The daily bond cycle peaked on day 25 and formed a swing high two days later. Like gold, bonds did not break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm its daily cycle decline until Monday. The last 7 daily cycles have averaged 27 days so with Monday being day 9 that places bonds in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Once a swing low forms it would have good odds of marking a daily cycle low. Then a break above the declining trend line would confirm the new daily cycle.

So while both gold and bonds broke below their daily cycle trend lines, stocks broke convincingly above its daily cycle trend line.

3 spx daily

Stocks printed an extended 58 day, daily cycle low on March 27th. Emerging from the extended DCL, stocks breached the daily cycle trend line on day 7. However stocks did not deliver a clear and convincing trend line break until Monday. Monday was day 19 for the daily equity cycle. A break above the day 7 high of 2378.36 will shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. And if a right translated daily cycle forms, then we would need to reevaluate if 3/27 actually hosted an ICL.

The 4/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 10 peak. The swing low that formed on Friday signals an early daily cycle low.

The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 32.5 days/cycle so we are expecting more downside to this daily cycle. However yearly chart* shows that the dollar is sitting right on the yearly cycle trend line… which could act as support for a shortened daily cycle low. And if Thursday turns out to be the daily cycle low, then that would indicate that March 27th hosted the ICL.

*Editor’s note:
The weekly, yearly, 3 year and 15 year super cycle analysis is a regular part of the Weekend Report.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continue to be suppressed by the declining trend line.

The current daily cycle peaked on day 7. Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band last Friday, day 13. This signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL once 2322.25 is breached.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Steel Bottom

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Steel is beginning to look interesting so I thought that we should take a look.

5 slx daily swing

Steel formed a daily swing low on Thursday.

6 slx daily

Steel printed its lowest point on Wednesday following the day 5 peak. Wednesday was day 28, placing steel in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. The swing low formed above the support of the 200 day MA. So there are good odds that the day 28 hosted the daily cycle low. A break above the declining accelerated (red dashed) trend line will provide our first confirmation of a new daily cycle. Then a break above the declining (blue) trend line will provide final confirmation that day 28 hosted the DCL.

In my Special Report: Steel Bottom I take a closer look at steel. In my report I break down steel’s daily, weekly and yearly cycles and discuss where steel is in these various cycles. I am offering the Special Report: Steel Bottom along with a 6 week trial subscription to the Weekend Report for $15 which will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily & weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

So if you are interested in the Special Report: Steel Bottom and the 6 week trial subscription for $15 please click here.

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Dollar Weakness

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The dollar broke decisively lower on Tuesday.

$$$ daily

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. That re-afirms that the dollar is in a daily downtrend. It also signals that the dollar is in the grip of an intermediate cycle decline. Tuesday was day 15 for the dollar’s daily cycle. With the dollar’s daily cycle averaging 33 days, that suggests that the dollar could trend lower for another 3 to 4 weeks before printing its DCL.

$$$ Weekly

The rally out of the week 24 low was weak and did not allow us to be certain if the ICL printed. Then the dollar broke below the week 24 low in March. The rejection by the declining weekly trend line convinces me that week 24 hosted the ICL and the rally out of the March low was just a counter-trend rally. That would make this week 11 for the intermediate dollar cycle. Since this intermediate cycle has already failed, the way for the dollar is lower. Once the current daily cycle forms a low, there is enough time in the intermediate cycle to allow for one more failed daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle low.

Its About Time …

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Stocks formed a daily swing low on Monday.

spx 1

Typically the daily equity cycle runs about 30 – 45 days from trough to trough. However, the previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here.

spx

Even though we are expecting a shortened daily cycle, 13 days would be really short. I would have more confidence of the possibility that Friday hosted an early DCL if stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low of 2333.25 on Friday. The reason is that stocks have been declining into an intermediate cycle low for the past 6 plus weeks. A failed daily cycle normally forms during the intermediate cycle decline. A break below 2322.25 will form a failed daily cycle. However, with stocks being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low, if stocks deliver a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line then we would be forced to recognize that a new intermediate cycle has begun.

Bonds have entered their timing band to seek out a DCL

tlt

The daily bond cycle peaked on Friday, day 23. A swing high formed on Monday. There is a bearish TSI divergence developing that we often see at cycle tops. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

Bonds have been closing above the upper daily cycle band, establishing a daily uptrend. We will watch for a DCL to form above the lower daily cycle band. If that happens then that will confirm that bonds are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 4/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high and then closed below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Friday was day 13 for the daily dollar cycle. The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 33 days. So with a peak on day 10, this daily cycle is likely to form as a left translated daily cycle and continue the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday to indicate that stocks are declining into their daily cycle low.

Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals an end to the daily uptrend. It is also a reliable indicator that the intermediate cycle is in decline. The peak on day 7 locks in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below 2322.25 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle is in decline. And something to keep in mind is that the previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL next week.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The Status of the Daily Gold Cycle

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Gold formed a swing low and closed above the 200 day MA in a clear and convincing manner. I have received some emails asking if gold has begun a new daily cycle.

gld daily

Even though gold had formed a daily swing low on Tuesday, it has not delivered a recognizable decline into a daily cycle low. Normally a decline into a DCL should be enough to cause the 10 day MA to dip lower, which has not happened here. So that would make Tuesday day 22 for the daily gold cycle.

Of course the swing low allows long positions to be entered with a stop below Monday’s low. But we need to keep in mind that gold is on day 22 for the daily gold cycle that has been averaging 33 days per cycle since emerging from the 12/15 bear market bottom. Which means that over then next week our cyclical expectation is for gold to begin to seek out its daily cycle low. A swing high accompanied by a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.