Junior Miner Breakout

The Junior Miners broke out of their triangle consolidation on Tuesday.

The Junior Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band in early December to begin a new daily uptrend. After peaking early January, the Junior Miners have been consolidating by printing lower highs and higher lows. On Tuesday, the Junior Miners broke convincingly out of consolidation and closed back above the upper daily cycle band. This renews its daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The 2/15/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
I believe that the dollar was declining into a daily cycle low but that was aborted on day 21 and the dollar has since shot higher.

I am not comfortable with labeling day 21 as the DCL since the 10 day MA did not turn lower. But there has been a change of character since the day 21 low. So while the dollar’s daily cycle count is not clear, what is clear is that the dollar is in its daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 

The rally out of the DCL has caused stocks to become stretched above the 10 day MA and causing stocks to consolidate this week, allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators which often precede a cycle decline. Therefore we need to be wary of that the daily cycle will form in a left translated manner. A swing high and close below the 10 day would signal the daily cycle decline. However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Miner Risk/Reward


 

On Monday we discussed that a break below the (red) trend line would send the Miners into a daily cycle decline.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, which was day 55, placing them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday, off of support from the 50 day MA. The Miners then delivered bullish follow through on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 55 as the DCL.

Long positions can be entered with the stop being placed below Tuesday’s low. Until the Miners break above the upper trend line there is a risk of being whipsawed as the Miners continue to work through the multi month consolidation. Waiting on a break above the declining trend line will reduce the risk of being whipsawed at the expense of missing out on part of the potential rally.

Miner Traction

The Miners have been consolidating since the big summer rally.

Since December the Miners have been printing lower highs and higher lows. These triangle consolidations can obscure our daily cycle counts. A break below the (red) daily cycle trend line should send the Miners to seek out their daily cycle low. But a break above the upper (blue) stem should allow for the Miners to start to get some traction.

The 2/01/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar formed a swing high on Thursday.

The dollar delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA, the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA — which confirms the daily cycle decline. Closing below all of those MA’s also signals something more sinister is afoot, which I cover in the Weekend Report. Friday was day 21, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 50 day MA would signal the DCL. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks formed a swing low off of the day 36 low. Since 36 days places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low, Tuesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

Stocks failed to close above the 10 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle and then broke lower on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 40, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 36, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s swing low and close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new daily cycle. And while Stocks did rebound off the 38 fib level and RSI has also turned higher — indicative of an intermediate cycle advance … we are not out of the woods yet. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label day 36 as the DCL.

In the Mid-Week Update I plan to cover whether stocks are out of the woods in regards yet to their weekly cycle.

The 1/25/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed above the 200 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 16 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The new high on day 16 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. It also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.
 

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, day 33.

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and then closed below the daily cycle trend line on Friday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Notice that the previous daily cycle decline only lasted 3 days and the swing low formed above the upper daily cycle band. That is a signal that stocks have begun a melt up that is characterized by brief corrections. So it is likely for the DCL to arrive early next week.

While we will not be able to know how long stocks will continue in this melt up what we do know is that this usually ends in a crash. Stock are in a daily uptrend. Will will use a close below the upper daily cycle band as a signal of a larger correction.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Uptrend


 

The Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 41 to place them late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Then they formed a swing low on and closed above the 10 day MA last week. The Miners delivered bullish follow through by closing above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday. This indicates that day 41 was the daily cycle low. Also, closing above the upper daily cycle band resumes the daily uptrend. The Miners will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Hunting for the Next Opportunity in Real Estate

Back in December we discussed how it appeared the the Real Estate ETF REZ was printing a not only a daily cycle low, but its intermediate and yearly cycle low as well. Last week REZ confirmed its intermediate cycle low.

REZ printed its lowest point on week 34, placing it late in its timing band for an ICL. A weekly swing low formed in December to signal a new intermediate cycle. Last week REX closed convincing close above both the declining weekly trend line and the 10 week MA to confirm the new intermediate cycle.

It also appears that the yearly cycle low formed as well. REZ formed its last YCL in December, 2018 off of support from the 50 week MA. The week 34 low also formed off of support from the 50 week MA. REZ then went on to close above the upper weekly cycle band last week. Closing above the upper weekly cycle band begins a new weekly uptrend and also signals that the YCL has been set.

REZ’s daily cycle has averaged 32 days over the past year. Since this is the first daly cycle of a new intermediate cycle, this should form as a right translated daily cycle. With Friday being only day 20, REZ could trend higher for the next 2 weeks before seeking out its DCL. Long positions could be entered/added to here, using the 10 day MA as the stop. Or wait on the next daily cycle low which should print sometime over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

The 1/18/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday.

The dollar broke below its previous daily cycle low to print its lowest point on day 11. Breaking below the previous daily cycle low forms a failed daily cycle. 11 days is too early for a daily cycle low to form. But closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set — which indicates that day 11 was the daily cycle low. Since a cycle cannot fail then go on to make a new high, a break above the 97.41 would form a high daily cycle high which would have us label day 11 as the DCL. Closing above the upper dialy cycle band signals an end to the daily downtrend and the start of a new daily uptrend.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 31 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. The new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks begin in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report