Steel Update

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Steel appears to be on the way to confirming a new daily cycle.

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The daily steel cycle peaked last week on day 24. It then formed a swing high and began its daily cycle decline. Steel printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 28. Steel formed a swing low on Thursday. Steel is delivering a clear and convincing break above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm the new daily cycle. It also appears that steel will close above the upper daily cycle band. Steel is currently in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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A Miner Reminder

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The dollar broke decisively lower on Monday.

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The dollar broke below the 10 day MA and closed below the upper daily cycle band on Monday to confirm that the dollar has entered its daily cycle decline. The peak on day 14 makes it likely that the dollar will form a right translated daily cycle, which should print a higher daily cycle low. But the weekly set-up suggests that the next daily cycle will form as a left translated daily cycle.

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The intermediate dollar cycle peaked on week 14 and has formed a clear and convincing weekly swing high. At 16 weeks the dollar is just 2 weeks shy of entering its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. Which means that the odds increase for the next daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle. However, a case can be made that this is actually week 31 of an extended weekly cycle. If that is the case then the dollar is way overdue for an intermediate cycle decline. Either scenario has us expecting the next daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

So now let’s look at what happened to the Miners the last time the dollar had a major intermediate cycle decline.

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The Miners emerged from their yearly cycle low the last time that the dollar had a major intermediate cycle decline. That was a monster rally that saw the Miners rally of over 100%.

Once again, the Miners are in their timing band to emerge from a yearly cycle low

 

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Oil Slipping Lower

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On Wednesday morning, 11/23, we took a look at oil’s daily cycle.

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We noted that if oil forms a swing high & loses the 50 day MA then oil would be forming a left translated daily cycle.

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And that’s what oil did on Friday. Oil formed a daily swing high an lost 50 day MA last Friday which signaled a left translated cycle formation is developing. After backtesting the 50 day MA on Monday oil delivered more bearish follow through on Tuesday by breaking close to 4% lower and losing the 10 day MA in a clear and convincing manner. Going forward, a close below the lower daily cycle band will proved further confirmation that oil has begun its daily cycle decline.

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Our cyclical expectation is that oil needs to complete its yearly cycle decline. A left translated weekly cycle formation aligns with that expectation. A failed weekly cycle is needed to confirm that the yearly cycle is in decline. With a peak on week 11, the weekly cycle is setting up to form as a left translated cycle. A break below 39.19 forms a failed weekly cycle and will confirm that oil is in a yearly cycle decline.

Stocks Close to Line

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Stocks are approaching the decision time to the mini triangle that has been developing on the weekly chart.

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This is week 13 for the intermediate equity cycle. Stocks have been struggling, breaking lower 3 out of the previous 7 weeks. A break below the weekly trend line will confirm that stocks have entered their intermediate cycle decline.

The daily chart also shows the threat of an imminent intermediate cycle decline.

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Stocks dropped lower on Thursday, losing the 10 day MA. Stocks also breached the daily cycle trend line before recovering a bit to close just above that trend line. A clear and convincing break below the daily cycle trend line would signal that the daily cycle has entered its daily cycle decline. A peak on day 8 would mean a left translated daily cycle formation. Then a break below the previous daily cycle low of 2119.12 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate decline.

The 4/22/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner last Wednesday to signal a new daily cycle. Then the dollar drifted lower, back testing the recent daily cycle low. A bullish reversal formed on Thursday with more bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A break above the day 2 high of 95.21 will begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily down trend characterized by peaking below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in the daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks printed a higher high on Wednesday, day 9. A daily swing high formed on Thursday and stocks drifted lower on Friday, losing 30 points since the Wednesday peak.

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Since stocks have printed their intermediate cycle low in February stocks has had a series of minor pullbacks, in the range from 30 to 55 points. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks should remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 12/31/15 Weekend Report

The Dollar
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A peak on day 6 locks in a left translated cycle formation. We should have seen the dollar continue its daily cycle decline and break below 97.21 to form another failed daily cycle.

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The dollar’s decline was halted on Tuesday and a swing low formed on Wednesday. The dollar rallied on Thursday, closing above the 50 day MA. The 3 day rally makes it seem that the dollar has left behind an early, 13 day, daily cycle low. Generally speaking if the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline, any counter trend rally lasting more than 3 days usually signals a new daily cycle. So if the dollar rallies again on Monday then we will label Tuesday as a 13 day, daily cycle low. A clear and convincing close above the upper daily cycle band would indicate that the intermediate cycle low has been left behind.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks broke above the declining trend line and closed above both the 200 MA and the 50 MA last Tuesday to have us label December 14 as a 53 day, daily cycle low.

http://imageshack.com/a/img907/4381/cnM5BZ.jpg

Stocks lost the 50 day MA on Wednesday. Stocks also formed a swing high and lost the 200 MA on Thursday which signals a daily cycle decline. This sets up a left translated cycle formation that could lead to the intermediate cycle decline. A break below 1993.26 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Confirmation Delivered

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Stocks delivered a clear and convincing trend line break to confirm today as day 2 of a new daily cycle.

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By forming a right translated daily cycle sets the expectation for the next daily cycle to form a higher daily cycle high.

The Miners printed a bullish reversal today.

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The Miners are late in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Today’s Bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 13.58 forms a swing low. A close above the lower daily cycle band will confirm a new daily cycle.

This Changes the Picture

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Gold broke lower today, extending its daily cycle decline and also breaking below the July low.

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By breaking below the July low, gold has extended its yearly cycle decline. This changes the picture. Now instead of a new daily cycle possibly signaling a new intermediate cycle, it may also signal a new yearly cycle.

Meanwhile stocks formed a daily swing low today.

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The swing low that formed today was turned back by the convergence of the 200 MA and the declining cycle trend line. We are still waiting on a clear and convincing break of the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

The 10/09/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 5, lost the 200 day MA on day 12 and closed below the lower daily cycle band on day 15. Friday’s close below the lower daily cycle band signals that the dollar is in an intermediate cycle decline

http://imageshack.com/a/img631/5788/MHlA26.jpg

Friday was day 15 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar is three days shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low that could extend out to day 28. The peak on day 5 has locked in a left translated nature to this daily cycle. Combined with Friday’s close below the lower daily cycle band delivers a cyclical expectation of the dollar to print a failed daily cycle. But the rising 50 week MA may shorten the daily cycle decline, which is covered in the Weekend Report.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The clear and convincing break of the declining trend line on Monday confirmed a new daily cycle.

http://imageshack.com/a/img910/3738/kIZzhh.jpg

Stocks continued higher closing above the 50 day MA on Thursday and printing another higher high on Friday. Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band indicating a new daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Breaks Out

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We discussed oil here back on 9/27.

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(Above is the chart reprinted from 9/27)

We observed that the 40 level is a support level that stretched back to the early 90’s. Which coincided with oil being in its timing band for a 3 year cycle low.

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(Above is the chart reprinted from 9/27)

We also observed that oil was crawling along the 50 day MA and forming a triangle consolidation pattern.

Today oil finally broke out.

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After consolidating for over a month oil broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner. Oil also closed convincingly above the upper daily cycle band, which signals that oil is in a new daily uptrend. Since oil’s daily cycle can stretch to 50 days there is plenty of time for oil to make a break above the 200 MA before declining into its daily cycle low. At which time we will be watching to see if that daily cycle low will remain above the lower daily cycle band, which would then confirm the new daily uptrend.