The 4/23/22 Weekend Report Preview

Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar is in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.   

Stocks

Stocks were rejected by the 200 day MA on Thursday to signal a continuation of its daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 40, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. After the 2.77% drop on Friday, stocks would benefit from a narrow range lower low which would ease the parameters for forming a swing low. A swing low and recovery of the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 4/16/22 Weekend Report Preview

Dollar

The rally out of the DCL caused the dollar become stretched above the 10 day MA. 

The dollar backtested the previous daily cycle high on Friday, which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The 99.50 level should now act as support. There are bearish divergences beginning to develop on the oscillators. A break below the 99.50 support level would signal the daily cycle decline. However, the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  If the dollar forms a swing low above the upper daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.  

Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, then began crawling along the 50 day MA.

Tuesday was day 33 for the daily cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks need to form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA to signal that day 33 was the DCL. A break above 4471.00 will form a daily swing low. So while stocks recovered the 50 day MA on Wednesday, they lost the 50 day MA on Thursday. A break below the day 33 low of 4381.34 will extend the daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Stocks Still Seeking Out Their Daily Cycle Low

Stocks printed a another lower low on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 33 for the daily cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. The 10 day MA has turned lower and stocks tagged the 50% fib level on Tuesday, which usually needs to occur before we can expect a DCL to form.

 A swing low and recovery of the 50 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks manage to form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band that would indicate that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4471.00 would form a daily swing low.

Not Convinced

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 29, placing them in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. While stocks formed a swing low on Thursday, I am not convinced that the daily cycle low has formed.

Some of the things that I look for to mark the daily cycle low include:

  • Timing Band
  • 7-15 day correction
  • 10 day MA turning lower
  • RSI 05 oversold
  • Bollinger Band Crash

While stocks are in the early part of their timing band for a DCL, the other criteria has not been met. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A break above the declining trend line will signal a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 29 as the DCL.

Stocks Deliver A Bearish Trend Line Break

Stocks closed below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday.

We discussed on Monday how stocks formed a swing low to trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stocks negated that buy signal on Tuesday by forming a swing high and closing below the daily cycle trend line. Tuesday was day 27, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the 200 day MA that will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

The rally out of the late February DCL saw stocks get stretched above the 10 day MA last Tuesday. Stocks retraced to backtest the 200 MA on Friday, forming a bullish reversal. Stocks followed that by forming a swing low on Monday. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal. We will use Friday’s pivot to construct the daily cycle trend line.

Bullish Case For Gold

Gold broke below the March 16th low on Tuesday.

March 16th was day 32 for the daily gold cycle, placing gold in its timing band for a DCL. Gold closed above the 10 day MA six days later and in real time it looked like day 32 was the DCL. Then gold broke below the day 32 low on Tuesday, and the question is if gold is now in a failed daily cycle. Following are 5 reasons for the bullish case for gold.

  1. The 10 day MA. While gold did close above the 10 day MA, it did not manage to turn it higher. So when gold broke below the day 32 low on Tuesday, that signaled a continuation of the daily cycle decline.
  2. Undercut. Gold broke below the day 32 low on Tuesday then formed a bullish reversal. Often times we see an undercut to mark the cycle low.
  3. Support. Gold formed a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA. The 50 day MA is a major line of support.
  4. Bullish Divergence. There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that often occur at the cycle low. This indicates that Tuesday was day 41 of an extended daily cycle.
  5. Uptrend. Gold is currently in a daily uptrend. If gold forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal and then we will label day 41 as the DCL.

Miner DCL ?

The Miners formed a swing low on Thursday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 31, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. A close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle.  

The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend.  A close back above the 38.50 resistance level will signal a continuation of their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stops can then be set to 38.50

Gold Delivers Bearish Follow Through

Gold closed below the 10 day MA on Monday.

Gold ran into resistance at the 2100 level last week. We discussed on Thursday that a close below the 10 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline. Gold should go on to turn the 10 day MA lower as is seeks out its DCL. However, gold is in a daily uptrend. If gold forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then gold will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Gold Resistance

Gold formed a swing high on Wednesday, day 27, placing gold in its timing band for a DCL.

If gold delivers any bearish follow through and closes below the 10 day MA, that would signal the daily cycle decline.

We can see on a longer term view that gold was approaching resistance at its all-time highs and traders are taking profits. This would be a logical place for a daily cycle decline. However, if gold reverses and closes above this resistance level, that would be a buy signal — using the previous all time high as the stop.