The Junior Miners broke out of their triangle consolidation on Tuesday.
The Junior Miners closed above the upper daily cycle band in early December to begin a new daily uptrend. After peaking early January, the Junior Miners have been consolidating by printing lower highs and higher lows. On Tuesday, the Junior Miners broke convincingly out of consolidation and closed back above the upper daily cycle band. This renews its daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.
Stocks dropped 1.77% on Friday to print their lowest point following the day 33 peak.
Friday was day 40, placing stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks rallied on Monday and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA to confirm Friday as the daily cycle low. Stocks had been in a daily uptrend. Forming the swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.
In the Mid-Week Update I plan to discuss how stocks are in the process of negating their weekly swing high and what that might mean.
JNUG delivered a buy signal on Tuesday.
The decline from the August peak saw JNUG form a rounded bottom that printed its lowest point in November. The 200 MA (on the 4 hour chart) was resistance as JNUG was forming its bottom. Then JNUG broke above the 200 MA late December to form its daily cycle peak. The decline from the late December rally now has JUNG backtesting the 200 MA.
On closer inspection we can see that JNUG found support at the 200 MA. It formed a swing low and closed above both the 50 MA and the declining 10 MA. A long entry can be made with the stop place at the 200 MA which is 68.13.
This reflects what the Miners did on Tuesday. The Miners are late in their timing band for a daily cycle low and may have printed the DCL on Tuesday, which I plan to cover on Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.
Stocks formed a swing high and broke below the trend line on Monday.
Stocks continued lower on Tuesday to print a lower low, but ended up closing higher on the day. On Thursday stocks formed a swing low and broke out to a. new high. Tuesday was day 19, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. A new high on Thursday, day 20, shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. So Thursday’s swing low will have us re-draw the daily cycle trend line and label Tuesday as a half cycle low.
Stocks have been closing above the upper daily cycle band which means that they are in a daily uptrend. Thursday’s swing low signals that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal with the stop being Tuesday’s low.
The Real Estate ETF, REZ, delivered a buy signal on Friday.
Since peaking in late October, the real estate EFT, REZ has been printing a series of lower highs and lower lows. It printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 26. It formed a swing low on Thursday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 200 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.
I believe that this is not only a daily cycle low but a higher degree intermediate cycle low and possibly the yearly cycle low.
In my special report: Real Estate Opportunity, I will breakdown how the daily, weekly, and yearly cycles for the ETF – REZ, so you can see why I think that this is the best time of the year for Real Estate.
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The Miners delivered a cycle band buy signal on Thursday.
The Miners printed their lowest point on Wednesday, which was day 25. That places them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners found support from the 50 day MA on Wednesday and printed a bullish engulfing candle which recovered the 10 day MA. They delivered bullish follow through by forming a swing low on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. A close above the upper daily cycle band will confirm the new daily cycle. The Miners have been in a daily uptrend. Forming the swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band indicates that they remain in their daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal.
Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Monday to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.
Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, following the day 39 peak. That was day 42, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Wednesday to signal the new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 42 as the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Since the swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band, that indicates that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.
On Saturday we noted that stocks had formed a daily swing high. They delivered bearish follow through on Monday.
Monday was day 41 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA indicates that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The daily cycle decline typically lasts 7 – 10 days. The peak on day 39 locks in a right translated cycle formation which gives us the expectation that stocks will form a higher daily daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
The Dollar
The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday.
Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Friday’s bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 98.15 will form a swing high. Then a close below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 8 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.
Stocks
After a brief decline into the day 34 pivot, which allowed the 10 MA to catch up to price, stocks have rallied higher.
Friday was day 40 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks did form a swing high on Friday. Stocks will need to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
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1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.
2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.
3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.
4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo
5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.
Gold printed its lowest point on week 28, placing it late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
Gold did form a weekly swing low last week to signal a new intermediate cycle. But so far this week, gold has not been able to deliver any sustained bullish follow through. Gold will need to close above the 10 week MA and the above the declining weekly trend line to confirm the new intermediate cycle. Gold is in a weekly uptrend. Forming a weekly swing low above the lower weekly cycle band indicates that gold will remain in its weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.
The Likesmoney Black Friday Sale for New Subscribers
Black Friday Sale — get an extra month on the 3 month subscription – 4 months for $60 — click here.
Black Friday Sale — get an extra two months on the 6 month subscription – 8 months for $100 — click here.
Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription
1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.
2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.
3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.
4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo
5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.
