Gold Bullish Reversal

Gold printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 1817.10 will form a swing low. Then a close above the converging 10 day MA and the 200 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. In the Weekend Report I will breakdown what a new daily cycle means in terms of the longer term, intermediate cycle.

Stocks Complete Swing Low

Stocks competed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.  Stocks managed to recover the breakdown level on Monday, forming a bullish reversal. On Tuesday stocks completed a swing low so we will label day 46 as the DCL, using Monday’s low as the stop.  Stocks should go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

The Miners also completed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

The Miners broke below the previous DCL last week to form a failed daily cycle. The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, day 34, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low and pierced the declining trend line on Tuesday so we will label day 34 as the DCL. In the Mid Week Update I plan to discuss what this means in terms of the weekly Miner cycle.

Bullish Reversal

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Stocks began Monday lower, eventually breaking below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Recovering the breakdown level is a good sign that stocks printed their DCL. A break above 4159.81 will form a swing low and have us label day 46 as the DCL. Stops can then be set to Monday’s low. Stocks should then go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss what forming a failed daily cycle means in terms of the yearly cycle. Hint –> Bullish

Gold Update

Gold broke below the previous DCL on Monday to form a failed daily cycle and signal that gold is also seeking out its ICL.  

Gold delivered bearish follow through on Wednesday, closing below the 1900 support level. However in the Thursday morning premarket — gold is in the process of forming a bullish reversal. If gold can form a bullish reversal on Thursday then a swing low and recover the 1900 level — that would signal the daily cycle low and possibly the intermediate cycle low as well. Which I plan to discuss further this weekend in the Weekend Report.

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

The rally out of the late February DCL saw stocks get stretched above the 10 day MA last Tuesday. Stocks retraced to backtest the 200 MA on Friday, forming a bullish reversal. Stocks followed that by forming a swing low on Monday. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal. We will use Friday’s pivot to construct the daily cycle trend line.

The 2/26/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar broke above the day 6 high on Thursday.

Thursday was day 13 for the daily dollar cycle. The new high on day 13 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. Closing back above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend.

Stocks

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday that regained its breakdown level.

Stocks delivered bullish follow through by forming a swing low and closing above the 10 day MA on Friday to indicate that day 22 was an early DCL. Stocks will still need to break above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA before a trending move can develop. Stocks beginning a new daily cycle has implications for the intermediate and yearly cycles — which I breakdown in the Weekend Report.

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Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday.

Thursday was only day 22 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks about 2 weeks shy of its normal timing band for a daily cycle low. However, stocks formed a convincing bullish reversal on Thursday that regained its breakdown level. If stocks form a swing low, that will signal an early DCL. A break above 4294.73 will form a daily swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 22 as the DCL. Stocks will still need to break above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA before a trending move can develop.

Stocks at 61% Fib Level

Stocks closed lower again on Monday.

The peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle to extend the intermediate cycle decline. However stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday at the 61% fib level. So it is possible to see a bounce here, which would likely make day 15 a half cycle low. We would need to see stocks close above the 50 day MA before we could have any confidence that a rally can be sustained. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Daily Cycle Low?

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle, which is a bit early to expect a DCL to form. However, stocks closed below the 10 day MA turning it lower, closed below the 50 day MA, and retraced well past the 61% fib level. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 50 day MA then we will label day 24 as an early DCL. Stocks have been in a daily uptrend. If they form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4673.02 will form a daily swing low.