Undercut In Play – Update

Stocks undercut the day 54 on Friday.

While stocks undercut the day 54 low on Friday, they also formed a bullish reversal. The bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 3880.95 will form a daily swing low. Then a close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 62 as the DCL. Stocks are still in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until the can close above the upper daily cycle band.

If day 62 is the DCL, then stocks will be beginning the 2nd daily cycle for the intermediate cycle. I have some concerns once stocks confirm the new daily cycle, which I discuss in the Weekend Report.  

Another Low Risk Opportunity

Thursday was day 52, pacing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Since August of 2014 close to 80% of the daily cycles bottomed at or before day 52.

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, easing the parameters for forming a swing low. Stocks have retraced to the 50 % fib level and breached the daily cycle trend line. So if stocks form a swing low, the odds are good that will mark the DCL. A low risk entry can be taken on a swing low, using Thursday’s low as the stop. 

The 8/27/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar became stretched above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

The dollar consolidated this week which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar then formed a bullish reversal on Friday off support from the rising 10 day MA. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  If the dollar forms a swing low above the upper daily cycle band that will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 108.82 will form a daily swing low.

Stocks

Stocks were rejected by the 10 day MA on Friday.

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday to break below Wednesday’s low. This negates the swing low formed on Thursday to extend the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 48, that places stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks have now retraced to the 38% fib level.  Stocks should break below the blue daily cycle trend line in order to complete their daily cycle decline. However, we need to be alert to the possibility of the 50 day MA providing support for the DCL to form. Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and beings a daily downtrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Minor Risk On Miner Entry – Still In Play

On Wednesday we discussed that if the Miners formed a swing low on Thursday, that would represent a low-risk entry. However the Miners broke lower on Thursday to extend their daily cycle decline.

Thursday was day 43, placing the Miners deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.  The odds are good that a swing low and close above the 10 day MA will mark the DCL. The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, once again easing the parameters for forming a daily swing low and keeping the minor risk entry still in play. A bullish entry can be taken on a swing low, placing the stop below Thursday’s low of 24.92. A break above 25.89 will form a swing low.  Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. 

Miner Anticipation

The Miners have dropped over 34 % since peaking in April.

The Miners are in a 3 month downtrend and sentiment is bearish. However, the Miners printed a bullish reversal on Friday.

Friday was day 34 for the daily Miner cycle, placing them in their timing band for a DCL.  Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 28.37 will form a swing low. Then a close above the declining 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle.

The best time for the largest gains arrive at the yearly cycle low. In my special report, Miner Anticipation, I will break down where the Miners are in the daily, weekly and yearly cycles. I will include the confirmations that I am looking and the catalyst to set this all into motion — which I breakdown in my Special Report: Miner Anticipation.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription, along with the Special Report: Miner Anticipation for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the Special Report: Miner Anticipation along with the 6 week trial Subscription offer for $15 click here.

Oil Forms Bullish Reversal

Oil closed below the10 day MA on Tuesday then formed a swing high on Wednesday, breaking below the daily cycle trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. 

Oil formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 24, placing oil in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. If oil forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band, that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal – which we would then label day 24 as the DCL. A break above 115.73 will form a daily swing low.   

The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday followed by a swing high on Thursday.  

The dollar is in its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. A peak on day 11 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation. — which would allow the dollar to complete its intermediate cycle decline. Currently the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Gold Bullish Reversal

Gold printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 1817.10 will form a swing low. Then a close above the converging 10 day MA and the 200 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. In the Weekend Report I will breakdown what a new daily cycle means in terms of the longer term, intermediate cycle.

Stocks Complete Swing Low

Stocks competed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.  Stocks managed to recover the breakdown level on Monday, forming a bullish reversal. On Tuesday stocks completed a swing low so we will label day 46 as the DCL, using Monday’s low as the stop.  Stocks should go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

The Miners also completed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

The Miners broke below the previous DCL last week to form a failed daily cycle. The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, day 34, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low and pierced the declining trend line on Tuesday so we will label day 34 as the DCL. In the Mid Week Update I plan to discuss what this means in terms of the weekly Miner cycle.

Bullish Reversal

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Stocks began Monday lower, eventually breaking below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle. Monday was day 46, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Recovering the breakdown level is a good sign that stocks printed their DCL. A break above 4159.81 will form a swing low and have us label day 46 as the DCL. Stops can then be set to Monday’s low. Stocks should then go on to recover the 10 day MA as they really out of the DCL.

In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss what forming a failed daily cycle means in terms of the yearly cycle. Hint –> Bullish

Gold Update

Gold broke below the previous DCL on Monday to form a failed daily cycle and signal that gold is also seeking out its ICL.  

Gold delivered bearish follow through on Wednesday, closing below the 1900 support level. However in the Thursday morning premarket — gold is in the process of forming a bullish reversal. If gold can form a bullish reversal on Thursday then a swing low and recover the 1900 level — that would signal the daily cycle low and possibly the intermediate cycle low as well. Which I plan to discuss further this weekend in the Weekend Report.