Gold Facing Strong Headwinds

0

The dollar printed a bullish reversal off of the support of the 50 day MA on Monday.

$$$ daily

Monday was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 101.25 will form a swing low. Then a break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar has established a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms then the dollar would have managed to avoid closing below the lower daily cycle band during its daily cycle decline. Which means that the dollar would remain in a daily uptrend.

Despite the dollar’s bullish reversal, gold formed a swing low on Monday.

gold

Gold printed its lowest point on Friday, day 29. That placed gold with in its timing band for its daily cycle low. It is a bullish sign that gold managed to form a swing low as the dollar printed its bullish reversal.

However, gold faces some strong head winds now that a swing low has formed. Gold will need to break above the 50 day MA just to get started. Then break above the declining trend line, which is aligned with the declining 10 day MA, in order to confirm the new daily cycle.

Something that we need to watch is that gold had closed below the lower daily cycle band as it declined into its daily cycle low. That ended gold’s daily uptrend. If gold rallies here and it does not manage to close above the upper daily cycle band before rolling over, then it will establish a daily downtrend.

Dollar Hammer

O

The dollar broke lower on Thursday before reversing to rally into the close.

$$$ daily

Thursday was day 37 for the daily dollar cycle which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish hammer eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 99.84 forms a swing low and will likely signal the new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.

The dollar on the verge of beginning a new daily cycle and that has me skeptical that day 28 hosted a daily cycle low for gold.

gld

Gold printed its lowest point last Friday, day 28. The reversal off the 50 day MA does look like a daily cycle low. But with the dollar printing a bullish reversal it appears that gold has reciprocated by printing a false breakout. A swing high and a close below the 10 day MA would signal that Thursday was day 32 and that gold is now beginning its daily cycle decline.

Gold Seeking a Bottom

0

Gold’s daily cycle has stretched to to double the normal length as it printed a lower low on Monday, day 45. But the bullish reversal into the close signals that a bottom is at hand.

gld daily

Monday’s bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 1167.90 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. Next gold will need to close above the 10 day MA and then close above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

I believe that gold’s bullish close can be attributable to the dollar breaking lower on Monday.

$$$

The dollar printed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 23, which was right in its timing band for a daily cycle low. While I would prefer to see a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line to confirm a new dollar cycle, the dollar did close above the upper daily cycle band on Friday. So Monday’s drop by the dollar sets up a possible left translated daily cycle formation. Which could lead to a failed daily cycle for the dollar and that would confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

The 12/9/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Thursday’s bullish reversal along with the bullish follow through on Friday makes it likely that Friday was day 1 for the new daily cycle.

Thursday was day 23 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low on Friday signals a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has established a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend until is closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Friday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle and stocks printed another higher daily high. This assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

As we discussed in previous reports, stocks printed an intermediate cycle low in November. Stocks have delivered on our cyclical expectation of forming a right translated daily cycle after emerging from an intermediate cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will continue in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Strength

0

The dollar showed strength on Thursday by printing a bullish reversal.

1 $$$ daily

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, which was day 23. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal into the close has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 101.15 will form a daily swing low. Then break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

I believe that this is week 16 for the intermediate dollar cycle. Therefore the next daily cycle should bring the the dollar into its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we expect the next daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle, which should be good for gold.

gld daily

Gold is currently in a very stretched daily cycle. Gold printed its lowest point on Monday, day 40, which makes gold overdue for a daily cycle low. Gold still needs to form a daily swing low and deliver a declining trend line break to confirm the it is in a new daily cycle, which may not happen until the impending new dollar daily cycle rolls over. But once that happens, then gold should emerge from its yearly cycle low.

Trends

0

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

spx

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 13, formed a swing high the next day and then declined. Stocks printed their lowest point last Thursday, day 19, forming a bullish reversal candle. Since 19 days is too early for a daily cycle low, we need to label day 19 as a half-cycle low. The swing low that formed allows us to draw a daily cycle trend line. Therefore, a break of the newly formed daily cycle trend line will signal a daily cycle decline.

Stocks did not close below the lower daily cycle band as they formed their half-cycle low. Therefore stocks maintain their daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar reaffirmed on Monday that is is in a daily down trend.

$$$

The previous daily cycle closed below the lower daily cycle band en route to printing its 25 day, daily cycle low, signaling the beginning of a daily down trend for the dollar. The new daily cycle peaked on day 6, but did not close above the upper daily cycle band. On Monday the dollar closed once again below the lower daily cycle band. By closing below the lower daily cycle band the dollar has affirmed that it is in a daily down trend. The dollar will remain in the daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Still Waiting

00

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Friday, day 58. That was deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks did close above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday, we are still waiting on confirmation for the new daily cycle.

spx

Stocks retreated from the declining trend line on Wednesday and broke lower on Thursday, but managed to find supper today at the 50 day MA. If stocks close below the 50 day MA that would signal that the stocks is still seeking it daily cycle low. But a break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

We are still waiting on the dollar to confirm if a new intermediate cycle has started.

$$$

The dollar is currently in a daily down trend and will remain in a daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band. A close above the upper daily cycle band will indicate that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Miner Reaction

0

The dollar continued to rally today.

$$$

The dollar printed a bullish reversal last Tuesday. Even though 15 days is shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low, we discussed the possibility of an early daily cycle low due to the dollar being very deep in its intermediate cycle. The dollar went on to break above the declining trend line on Friday and today delivered bullish follow through to confirm this as day 4 of the new daily cycle.

The Miners have reacted bearishly to the dollar rallying.

gdx

The Miners formed a daily swing high last Tuesday as the dollar printed its bullish reversal. The Miners broke below the daily cycle trend line last Wednesday, as the dollar continue to rally. That trend line break signaled that the Miners were beginning their daily cycle decline. The brief counter-trend rally appears to have set the declining trend line for the Miners. And today as the dollar delivered bullish follow through the Miners closed convincingly below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 5 assures us of a left translated cycle formation that should lead to a failed daily cycle.

I suspect that the dollar is beginning a new intermediate cycle. That will likely send the Miners into their intermediate cycle decline.

But the bigger picture for the dollar is down. In my Special Dollar Report we will look at the big picture for the dollar. We will look at where the dollar is in its 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. And then we will look at what happened to gold.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership along with the Special Dollar Report for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscribers access along with the Special Report: Fractal Energy.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here if you are interested in the 6 week trial subscription and Special Report: Fractal Energy.

Subscribers can click here.

Breaking the Pattern

0

Stocks have been in a pattern of printing lower highs since November, 2015.
Today stocks broke that pattern.

SPX

Stocks printed a 60 day daily cycle low on February 11th. Stocks rallied up to testing the previous daily cycle high on Monday. A swing high formed on Tuesday. The bullish reversal on Wednesday set the daily cycle trend line. Today stocks broke out above the previous daily cycle high, breaking the patterns of lower highs. If stocks can close above the upper daily cycle band, that will confirm that 2/11 also was the intermediate cycle low.

In the Weekend Report I will discuss what stocks need to do to confirm that February 11th also hosted a yearly cycle low.

Dollar Suspicion

0

The energy sector printed a bullish reversal last week.

xle weekly

Last week was week 22 for the energy sector’s intermediate cycle. That places the energy sector in its timing band for print an intermediate cycle low. A new daily cycle has started and this may also signal a new intermediate cycle. A weekly swing low is required to mark the intermediate cycle low. A break above 56.12 will form a weekly swing low. Then a close above the lower weekly cycle band will indicate a new intermediate cycle. The bullish divergence developing on the True Strength Indicator signals that not only is an intermediate low is imminent, but also a yearly cycle low.

gdx weekly

The Miners have formed a weekly swing low. Last week was week 19 for the intermediate Miner cycle. The Miners have begun a new daily cycle and the weekly swing low signals that a new intermediate cycle has also begun. Once again there is a bullish divergence on the True Strength Indicator that signals not only has an intermediate low been left behind, but also a yearly cycle low.

And the reason for this I suspect is the dollar.

$$$

The dollar has been in a mini uptrend since emerging from the early December cycle low. The dollar printed an exhaustion candle on day 7 and appears to be rolling over. A bearish crossover has formed on the True Strength Indicator. A break below 98.99 will form a swing high. Then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 7 has goods odds for a left translated cycle formation, which usually results in a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle will send the dollar into its intermediate cycle decline.

But I think something bigger is developing here for the dollar. I think that a failed daily cycle may also lead to the yearly cycle decline and the 3 year cycle decline. All of which I plan on covering in this week’s Weekend Report.