The 4/29/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a bearish reversal just shy of the 200 MA on Friday.

Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A translated dollar cycle typically peaks by day 8. So Friday’s bearish reversal off of the 200 MA sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. But the dollar has established a new daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Wednesday followed by printing swing low on Thursday, allowing us to label Wednesday as the half cycle low.

The formation of the half cycle low allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. However since stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band this week, that signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Therefore any rally out of the HCL should remain lower than the previous daily cycle high of 2801.90

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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The 4/05/18 Morning Report

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Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that Wed was day 1 for the new daily cycle.

We have been looking for a break below the previous daily cycle low during this daily cycle decline. However, Wednesday’s bullish reversal along with closing above the declining 10 day MA convinces me that Monday hosted the DCL. A break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Extended Intermediate Cycle Decline

We discussed on Tuesday that the bullish reversal on day 25 set up the possibility of a shortened daily cycle. Instead stocks look to be extending their intermediate cycle decline.

Thursday was day 28 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks closed convincingly below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals that stocks are in an intermediate cycle decline.

After printing the week 24 low stocks did form a weekly swing low and close above the 10 week MA. These are signals of a new intermediate cycle. But stocks never turned the 10 week MA higher. And after the Thursday’s drop the 10 week MA has turned lower. Which is another indication that the intermediate cycle has stretched to week 30. Since a cycle low is the lowest point following the cycle peak, stocks will need to break below the week 24 low of 2532.69 in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Leadership

Monday stocks delivered follow through Friday’s bullish reversal.

Monday was day 15 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks formed a swing low and regained the 10 day MA to signal that stocks have formed a half cycle low. A close above the 50 day MA will confirm the half cycle low. And a close back above the upper daily cycle band will resume the daily uptrend.

So while stocks appeared to have formed their half cycle low other sectors continue to show their leadership

The Nasdaq held above the 50 day MA on Friday. On Monday, the Nasdaq closed back above the upper daily cycle band to resume its daily uptrend.

The Semi’s also closed back above the upper daily cycle band to resume their daily uptrend. And they are closing in on its all time highs.

And with these 2 sectors providing leadership, the rest of the market is bound to follow.

The 2/16/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below both the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday to confirm the daily cycle decline and signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar went on to break below the previous daily cycle low on Friday, forming another failed daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 16, which is a little early for a DCL. However the dollar printed a bullish reversal on Friday, which eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 89.15 forms a swing low to signal the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Wednesday and then the broke above the declining trend line to close above the 50 day MA on Thursday to confirm the new daily cycled.

Stocks have rallied nearly 8% off the day 58 low. Such a strong rally over the past 5 days is indicative of an ICL. Stocks may also need to consolidate a bit before continuing to advance. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Potential Bottom

Stocks dropped over 4% on Monday. Stocks recovered on Tuesday gaining back over 40% of Monday’s drop to form a huge bullish reversal. This sets up a potential bottom.

Tuesday was day 54 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s huge bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2701.04 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. The large Selling on Strength number to printed on Tuesday indicates near term volatility due to still needing to exhaust the selling pressure. We will use a close above the declining 10 day MA as confirmation of the new daily cycle.

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 11/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 17. It printed is lowest on Wednesday, day 23, forming a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA.

The dollar is in its timing band for a DCL. It did form a swing low on Thursday, but broke lower on Friday. The dollar still needs to close back above the declining 10 day MA in order to confirm that day 23 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Friday so it does remain in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

After peaking on day 54 stocks broke lower, printing their lowest point on Wednesday. At 60 days, that places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday that broke above the declining trend line and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that day 60 was the daily cycle low.

We need to keep in mind that stocks printed a large SOS number on Thursday. The 701 million selling on strength is the type of number that will be printed prior to an intermediate cycle decline. It is certainly not the type of number the we typically see as stocks emerge from a daily cycle low. Stocks followed that up by closing back below the 10 day MA on Friday. The take away here is there is uncertainty of whether or not stocks still have more to correct or if stocks are preparing to form a left translated daily cycle. But for now, Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 9/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bullish reversal on Friday.

Friday was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 91.49 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle cycle. The dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks have confirmed the new daily cycle but the status of the intermediate cycle remains unclear.

The rally into the day 9 high caused stocks to get stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks consolidated this week to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. If stocks close below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA that would be a clear signal that stocks have not completed its intermediate cycle decline. But a break above the previous daily cycle high of 2490.87 shifts the odds towards 8/21 being the ICL. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in its uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Daily Cycle Low for Oil

Oil printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

oil

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. Oil did not form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil finally broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point on Tuesday. At 37 days, that places oil well within its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal also eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 47.92 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to entering its daily cycle decline, which indicates that oil is in a daily uptrend. If oil forms a daily cycle low above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.