The 50 Day MA

Stocks delivered more bullish follow through on Monday.

Monday’s rally caused the 10 day MA to turn higher, which is more confirmation that day 26 hosted the DCL. Now stocks are approaching the 50 day MA.

The 50 day MA typically has provided either support during intermediate advances or resistance during intermediate declines. So we can expect some resistance at the 50 day MA. And if stocks have begun an intermediate advance then stocks should break above the 50 day MA. But stocks won’t really be out of the woods until they break above the 200 day MA.

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The Miners Are Ready To Cross The Line

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 28, placing them in their timing band for a DCL.

The Miners formed a swing low on last Wednesday then closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. The Miners proceeded to deliver bullish follow through to see them testing the declining 50 day MA on Monday.

The Miners lost the 50 day MA back in April. We could see the Miners trade sideways to allow the 50 day MA to flatten out. No trending move will be able to gain any traction until the Miners are able to close back above the declining 50 day MA. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. The Miners will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The 9/03/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar broke bullishly out of consolidation on Thursday. The new daily cycle high on day 15 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar did not deliver any bullish follow through on Friday. The dollar is overdue for a recognizable intermediate cycle decline.  A swing high and close below the 10 day MA would set the dollar up for a bull trap which could lead to the intermediate cycle decline. However, the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  

Stocks

Stocks are still seeking out the DCL.

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

Thursday was day 52, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks will need to close above the converging 50 day MA and 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.  But a break below the day 52 low of 3903.65 will extend the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 8/20/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday and Friday to signal the new daily cycle.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Stocks

Stocks ran into resistance at the 200 day MA on Tuesday and formed a swing high on Wednesday.

Stocks delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 43, placing stocks deep their timing band for a daily cycle low.  Stocks will need to turn the 10 day MA lower before the DCL can form. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their DCL. However, we could see the 50 day MA provide support for the DCL to form.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daly uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

PreviewThe 8/13/22 Weekend Report

The Dollar 

The dollar broke below the day 25 low on Wednesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 32, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA on Friday to signal the new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 32 as the DCL. The dollar should go on to break above the declining trend line as it rallies out of its DCL. The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.  

Stocks

Stocks broke above the 4150 resistance level on Monday then delivered bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 38, placing stocks deep their timing band for a daily cycle low.  Breakouts that come late in the daily cycle are almost always given back once the daily cycle decline begins. A swing high and close below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks will need to turn the 10 day MA lower before the DCL can form. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daly uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Miner Progress

On Tuesday we discussed that there is a major opportunity for the Miners. Tonight we will look at the Miner progress.

The Miners formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. The Miners delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing a full candle body above the 10 day MA so we will label day 50 as the daily cycle low.

In the Weekend Report I plan to breakdown how the Miners are overdue for the intermediate and yearly cycle lows, as well. And forming a swing low could indicate not only the DCL, but the ICL and YCL as well. 

Stocks Break Bullishly Above Trend Line

Stocks have been halted by the declining trend line since late March — until this week.

Stocks broke above the declining trend line on Tuesday then delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday. Closing above the declining intermediate trend line indicates that June 17 marked not only the daily cycle low, but the intermediate cycle low as well. That aligns with stocks closing above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Biotech Delivers Bullish Follow Through

On Saturday we noted how Biotech is the early leader out of the daily cycle low. On Tuesday Biotech delivered bullish follow through.

Prior to the June low, RSI 05 was in a bearish pattern – embedding in oversold and quickly reversing once overbought. That is changing. RSI 05 is beginning to embed in overbought – which is characteristic of an intermediate cycle advance. That aligns with Biotech being in daily uptrend. Biotech will remain in its daily uptrend unless it close below the lower daily cycle band.

Weekly Swing Low

Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Thursday then delivered bullish follow through on Friday to signal that day 19 was an early DCL.

Stocks printed their lowest point the previous week, which was week 36, placing them very deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks formed a weekly swing low this week. Only 1 time in the last 13 years did an intermediate cycle exceed 32 weeks. So the odds are high that this weekly swing low signals the new intermediate cycle. We still need to see a close above the declining 10 week MA in order to label week 36 as the ICL. Stocks are currently in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in their weekly downtrend unless they can close back above the upper weekly cycle band.

 In the Weekend Report I will breakdown what this means for the longer term, yearly cycle.

Risk/Reward

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 19, which is very early for a DCL. But with the previous daily cycle being stretched at 60 days, a shortened daily cycle would help to balance out the cycle counts.  The weekly cycle is also stretched, which increases the odds for an early DCL. Still, we will need to see a close above the declining 10 day MA, along with some bullish follow through to be assured that day 19 hosted an early DCL.

If Friday was the DCL, then a Tuesday entry provides the least risk of loss if stopped out. Waiting for more confirmation, such as recovering the 3943.42 break down level or a close above the 10 day MA provides more assurance that the DCL is set at the cost of a greater loss if stopped out at Friday’s low.