Miner Progress

On Tuesday we discussed that there is a major opportunity for the Miners. Tonight we will look at the Miner progress.

The Miners formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. The Miners delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing a full candle body above the 10 day MA so we will label day 50 as the daily cycle low.

In the Weekend Report I plan to breakdown how the Miners are overdue for the intermediate and yearly cycle lows, as well. And forming a swing low could indicate not only the DCL, but the ICL and YCL as well. 

Stocks Break Bullishly Above Trend Line

Stocks have been halted by the declining trend line since late March — until this week.

Stocks broke above the declining trend line on Tuesday then delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday. Closing above the declining intermediate trend line indicates that June 17 marked not only the daily cycle low, but the intermediate cycle low as well. That aligns with stocks closing above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday.

Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Biotech Delivers Bullish Follow Through

On Saturday we noted how Biotech is the early leader out of the daily cycle low. On Tuesday Biotech delivered bullish follow through.

Prior to the June low, RSI 05 was in a bearish pattern – embedding in oversold and quickly reversing once overbought. That is changing. RSI 05 is beginning to embed in overbought – which is characteristic of an intermediate cycle advance. That aligns with Biotech being in daily uptrend. Biotech will remain in its daily uptrend unless it close below the lower daily cycle band.

Weekly Swing Low

Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Thursday then delivered bullish follow through on Friday to signal that day 19 was an early DCL.

Stocks printed their lowest point the previous week, which was week 36, placing them very deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks formed a weekly swing low this week. Only 1 time in the last 13 years did an intermediate cycle exceed 32 weeks. So the odds are high that this weekly swing low signals the new intermediate cycle. We still need to see a close above the declining 10 week MA in order to label week 36 as the ICL. Stocks are currently in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in their weekly downtrend unless they can close back above the upper weekly cycle band.

 In the Weekend Report I will breakdown what this means for the longer term, yearly cycle.

Risk/Reward

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 19, which is very early for a DCL. But with the previous daily cycle being stretched at 60 days, a shortened daily cycle would help to balance out the cycle counts.  The weekly cycle is also stretched, which increases the odds for an early DCL. Still, we will need to see a close above the declining 10 day MA, along with some bullish follow through to be assured that day 19 hosted an early DCL.

If Friday was the DCL, then a Tuesday entry provides the least risk of loss if stopped out. Waiting for more confirmation, such as recovering the 3943.42 break down level or a close above the 10 day MA provides more assurance that the DCL is set at the cost of a greater loss if stopped out at Friday’s low.

Stocks Confirm New Daily Cycle

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through Wednesday and Thursday.

Stocks closed above the declining accelerated (dashed) trend line on Thursday, turning the 10 day MA higher, confirming that day 60 was the daily cycle low.

The next task at hand is to break above the lower stem of the megaphone topping pattern. Stocks will need to do so in order for any bullish trending move to develop. Rejection here would extend the intermediate cycle decline.

Miner Progress

The Miners closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on day 42, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal that day 42 was the daily cycle low. The Miners will need to break above the declining trend line and the 200 day MA in order for a trending move to develop. In the Weekend Report I will discuss what this means in terms of the longer, intermediate cycle.

The 3/05/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. The dollar broke above Wednesday’s high on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to negate the bearish reversal.

The dollar is now stretched above the 10 day MA. A new high on day 19 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks

Stocks closed below the declining 10 day MA on Friday.

After forming a swing low, Stocks have been crawling along the declining 10 day MA. Stocks will need to break bullishly above the 10 day MA and turn it higher to confirm day 22 as the DCL. However, stocks formed a swing high on Friday. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

A Miner Change In Behavior

The Miners are demonstrating a change in behavior.

The Miners have been contained by the 200 day MA since losing it back in June. That has changed.

The Miners closed above the 200 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through on Wednesday and Thursday.   The Miners are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report I breakdown what this change in behavior means for the weekly and yearly cycle.

The 2/12/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 14.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday. It delivered bullish follow through by closing above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday to signal that day 14 was the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks lost the 10 day MA on Thursday and then lost the 200 day MA on Friday.

With a peak on day 7, losing the 200 day MA on Friday sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation and a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.  

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.