The 10/12/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Friday.

Friday was day 20 for the daily dollar cycle, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. This is the first time that the dollar closed below the 50 day MA since it regained the 50 day MA back in July. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Taken together they indicate that the dollar is not only in its daily cycle decline, but the intermediate cycle decline has also begun.

Stocks

Stocks printed its lowest point on day 42, which placed them in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Thursday. Then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm Friday as day 6 of the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain so unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

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Gold Recognition Day

Boom!

Gold rallied on Thursday, which I believe was a Recognition Day. Gold sliced through the declining 50 day MA to close above the upper daily cycle band in a clear and convincing manner indicating an end to the daily downtrend and the start of a new daily uptrend. This reminds me of the Natgas Recognition day we discussed back on 9/18.

The similarities include:
* Recent cycle low
* A test of the 50 day MA
* A slight retrace from the 50 day MA
* Boom
* Then the ensuing rally