The 6/22/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar’s bearish reversal on day 5 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar followed up Thursday’s bearish reversal by forming a daily swing high. The dollar also closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the beginning of the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 5 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework, which I discuss in the Weekend Report. However, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28. Then went on to form a swing high and close below the day 10 MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 32, which places stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Wednesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

But stocks formed a swing high on Thursday, negating Wednesday’s swing low. A break below 2743.19 will extend the daily cycle decline. But a close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The 4/29/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a bearish reversal just shy of the 200 MA on Friday.

Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A translated dollar cycle typically peaks by day 8. So Friday’s bearish reversal off of the 200 MA sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. But the dollar has established a new daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Wednesday followed by printing swing low on Thursday, allowing us to label Wednesday as the half cycle low.

The formation of the half cycle low allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. However since stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band this week, that signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Therefore any rally out of the HCL should remain lower than the previous daily cycle high of 2801.90

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Decline

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Wednesday’s bearish reversal off of the day 23 high eased the parameters form forming a swing high. The Miners delivered bearish follow though on Thursday by breaking lower to form a swing high.

The Miners also breached the daily cycle trend line and ended up closing below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. A close below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. The Miners are in a daily uptrend. So if the Miners form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band they will remain in their daily uptrend.

The dollar rallying out of what appears to be a DCL is sending the Miners lower.

Wednesday was day 34 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing it late in its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining 10 day MA will confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band it will remain in its d daily downtrend.

Oil Forms Bearish Reversal

Oil formed a bearish reversal on Thursday.

Wednesday’s bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing high. Oil is nearing its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing high and break of the declining trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 63.43 will form a daily swing high.

Thursday was day 23 for the daily oil cycle. The new high on day 23 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with oil being in a daily uptrend. Oil will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Confirms Daily Cycle Decline

On Thursday we discussed how the bearish reversal was setting oil up for a decline into its daily cycle low. On Monday oil confirmed that it has begun its daily cycle decline.

Oil formed a swing high on Monday that closed convincingly below the 10 day MA. Oil also pierced the daily cycle trend line. Both of these signals indicate that oil has begun its daily cycle decline. With Monday being only day 21 that will allow enough time for oil to drop further so as to turn the 10 day MA lower.

Oil still managed to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that oil is in a daily uptrend. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks Form Bearish Reversal

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Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday.

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Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks 3 days shy of their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks formed a bearish reversal after breaking out to a new high on Tuesday. The bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 2472.99 will form a swing high to signal that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

2_spx_uptrend

As we discussed here last week, even if stocks form a daily swing high to begin their daily cycle decline the bigger picture is that stocks are in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. So even is stocks decline into a daily cycle low, they will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 2/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke above the 50 day MA on Wednesday. But then formed a bearish reversal and closed below the 50 day MA. Thursday the dollar formed a swing high to signal the daily cycle decline.

The dollar recovered on Friday. We could see the dollar back test the 50 day MA before continuing into its daily cycle decline. A “kiss good-bye” will set up a declining trend line. A peak on day 9 can still result in a left translated failed daily cycle. A break below 99.19 will form a failed daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks have entered their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Thursday’s new high on day 32 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

A swing high and a break of the accelerated trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band remaining in its daily uptrend. Stocks will continue its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Bearish Signal for the Miners

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The Miners delivered a bearish signal on Thursday.

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The Miners printed an exhaustion candle on Wednesday. Then followed up on Thursday by printing a bearish reversal. (Note how the previous daily cycle peaked on day 12) Thursday has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 30.968 will form a daily swing high then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Still the Miners are in a daily uptrend. They will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. oil

On the other hand, oil continues to develop bullishly.

oil

After closing above the 10 day MA on Monday, oil stalled on Tuesday. Oil back tested the 10 day MA on Wednesday and then had a big day on Thursday. Thursday was day 6 for the daily oil cycle and oil closed above the lower daily cycle band providing more confirmation of the new daily cycle. Oil still needs to close above the declining trend line to provide final confirmation of the new daily cycle.

Bearish Reversal

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Stocks delivered a bearish reversal on Wednesday.

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Wednesday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks breached the 1680 level before reversing. The low of the day managed to tag the (blue) daily cycle trend line. A break below 1648 forms a swing high and also breaks below the daily cycle trend line signaling a daily cycle decline.

If today holds as the daily cycle peak, at 24 days the odds are good that this cycle will form as a right translated daily cycle. The timing band for a low is normally between days 30 and 45. Then the next cycle will likely be the terminal cycle to this intermediate cycle. The next cycle should then peak before day 20 before rolling over into a left translated, failed cycle.

The dollar also rallied to a new daily cycle high today.

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Wednesday was day 15 for the daily dollar cycle. We see that since the dollar breached the Bollinger Band on day 12, the dollar has traded sideways. Also notice that the Bollinger Bands have opened up. It looks like the dollar is getting set for one more leg higher. Since the dollar’s daily cycle runs through day 28, there is plenty of time for one more push higher before rolling over in to a daily cycle decline.

Back to the Mail Bag

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pk34145 asked,
“LM, Could you please give us your long term view of $GOLD for the current Intermediate cycle?

Is it likely, or at least “possible” that we are on track to test all time highs in $GOLD for this Intermediate Cycle?

I just looked at the 2008 bottom and this is what I found.
2008 bottom
25% below 200dma – (recovered 200dma in about 1 1/2 months)
45% rally to A-wave high (700 to 1000 in about 3 1/2 months)

2013 bottom (Assuming we have already seen ICL and YCL)
20% below 200dma – (still possible to recover this during 2nd Daily Cycle)
40% below 1900 – (should be able to do this during current Intermediate cycle)

The slow beginning off of this bottom does not look all that different than the 2008 bottom.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2008-05-22&en=2009-04-01&id=p91950315237

Your thoughts on this would be appreciated. (turn on your “crystal ball”)”

Nice work. I also think that this reminds me of 2008 yearly cycle low.

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Above is the big picture.

The pattern does seem similar to the 2008 yearly cycle low. Of course this was a bigger rally and the correction was more severe stretching over two yearly cycle lows. I expect that once this new yearly cycle is confirmed, this intermediate cycle will peak between the 1800 – 1900 level. An intermediate decline into a to around the 1600 level before a launch to new all time highs.

So we are waiting patiently for gold to get it in gear …

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