The 12/01/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, day 30. A swing low formed on Tuesday, setting up a possible daily cycle low.

Monday was day 30, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However, if the dollar breaks below the day 30 low of 92.43, that will extend the daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA after emerging from its daily cycle low.

Friday’s volatility caused stocks to back test the 10 day MA.

The large Buying on Weakness number indicates that Friday was a half cycle low. A swing low here will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Miner Potential

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The dollar has not yet confirmed a new daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. While the dollar breached the declining trend line, it needs to break convincingly above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL. However any dollar rally is likely to be short lived. The dollar is in a confirmed intermediate cycle decline. Therefore our expectation is for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

And the dollar declining into an intermediate cycle low is typically bullish for precious.

Thursday was day 18 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a DCL. A break above 22.53 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA would confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners can potentially form a right translated cycle that prints a higher low. That would indicate that November did host the intermediate cycle low and that the Miners are beginning a new daily uptrend. The Miners would then need to close are the upper daily cycle band in order to establish a new daily uptrend.

Miner Expectations

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The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, breaking below its previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle to confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Monday was day 30, which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. So Tuesday’s swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL.

So the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. This was week 12 for the dollar’s weekly cycle. That means that the dollar can trend lower for another 6 to 12 weeks before printing its intermediate cycle low. Which is plenty of time for the dollar to print at least one more failed daily cycle.

The Miners responded to the dollar printing a swing low by forming a bearish reversal off the declining 50 day MA.

Tuesday was day 15 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners 3 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners have been trying to close above the 50 day MA for the last 3 trading sessions. On Tuesday the Miners were rejected by the declining 50 day MA and then went on to close below the 200 day MA. With the dollar apparently beginning a new daily cycle it is quite likely that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. A break below 22.92 will form a swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The Miners did print a new daily cycle high on Tuesday. A new high on day 15 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. The Miners beginning to form right translated daily cycles would align with the declining into an intermediate cycle low.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Stocks printed their daily cycle low on November 15th. A swing low formed the next day to signal the new daily cycle. Last week stocks broke out to new highs, confirming the new daily cycle. On Monday stocks appeared to have stalled.

This actually resembles how stocks emerged from the August cycle low. Once stocks broke out to new highs on September 12th they stalled for close to 2 weeks, which allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

We could be seeing a similar pattern develop here. The thing to keep in mind is that stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Bullish on Robotics

Robotics have recently recently begun a new bull market.

1) Robotics had a multi year consolidation.
2) Robotics then had a bearish break down out of consolidation
3) The bearish break down was followed by a back test of that break down, which exhausted bears. Then robotics began to rally.
4) Robotics went on to regain the 50 week MA
5) It then back tested the 50 week MA as it printed its ICL in June of 2016.
6) The back test was followed by a bullish break out of consolidation in September of 2016.
7) It back tested the consolidation in October and has been on a bullish run.
8) And since it began its bullish run volume has picked up tremendously.

This is very similar to how Biotech began its bull run.

Biotech exhibited the same elements before its bullish run.
1) There was a multi year consolidation.
2) There was a bearish break down out of consolidation.
3) There was a back test of the bearish break down.
4) Biotech regains the 50 week MA.
5) Biotech back tested the 50 week MA
6) There was a bullish break out of consolidation
7) There was a back test of the break out from consolidation.
8) And when it began its bullish run volume has picked up tremendously.

And biotech managed to rally over 259%,.

Robotics is in a confirmed weekly uptrend. It will remain in a weekly uptrend until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band. Taking a closer look at Robotics we can see that it has formed a weekly swing low. The weekly swing low sets up a low risk entry with the stop being placed below the week 19 low. And the correct strategy in a weekly uptrend is to buy the dip.

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a bullish reversal off of the 50 day MA on day 23, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 29 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. There are also bullish divergences developing on the oscillators indicating that a bottom is near. A swing low and break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band to indicate a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday to confirm that day 60 hosted the DCL.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Biotech Beginning To Be Bullish

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Biotech printed its lowest point on 11/14 following the day 10 peak. It formed a daily swing low and closed above the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday to confirm a new daily cycle.

The decline into the day 37 DCL broke below the previous daily cycle low causing biotech to form a failed daily cycle. So the daily swing low also signals a potential beginning of a new intermediate cycle.

Last week biotech printed a bullish reversal off of support from the rising 50 week MA. And biotech has now formed a weekly swing low to signal that this is week 1 of a new intermediate cycle.

Since emerging from the October 2016 ICL low biotech has established a weekly uptrend that is characterized by peaks above the upper weekly cycle band and lows above the lower weekly cycle band. The big picture is that after peaking in 2015, biotech formed a massive 29 month cup and handle consolidation pattern. And the weekly swing low sets up a low risk entry for the potential break out.

Clear & Convincing Evidence

Stocks closed convincingly above the 10 day MA to confirm that Tues was day 4 of the new daily cycle.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

We can also see the both the Transports & the Russell have convincingly confirmed new daily cycles.

Like stocks, both the Transports & the Russell printed their lowest cyclical points last Wednesday. They have now both formed swing lows and closed convincingly above their declining trend lines to confirm their new daily cycles.

Evidence of a Daily Cycle Low

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, following the day 54 peak. At 60 days, that placed stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks did form a swing low on Thursday, the 701 million selling on strength had us skeptical if a daily cycle low formed.

Stocks dropped on Friday to back tested the declining trend line. Stocks recovered on Monday. While they did not close back above the 10 day MA, stocks continue to develop bullishly. They are close to delivering a TSI bullish zero line crossover, which would provide more evidence that day 60 hosted the DCL.

The Advance-Decline did regain its 10 day MA. There is also a bullish divergence developing on the AD Line and they are leading stocks higher.

And the Semi’s have printed a new high. The Semi’s have been leading stocks and now that they have printed a new high, stocks likely to follow.

The 11/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 17. It printed is lowest on Wednesday, day 23, forming a bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA.

The dollar is in its timing band for a DCL. It did form a swing low on Thursday, but broke lower on Friday. The dollar still needs to close back above the declining 10 day MA in order to confirm that day 23 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Friday so it does remain in a daily uptrend. It will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

After peaking on day 54 stocks broke lower, printing their lowest point on Wednesday. At 60 days, that places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday that broke above the declining trend line and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that day 60 was the daily cycle low.

We need to keep in mind that stocks printed a large SOS number on Thursday. The 701 million selling on strength is the type of number that will be printed prior to an intermediate cycle decline. It is certainly not the type of number the we typically see as stocks emerge from a daily cycle low. Stocks followed that up by closing back below the 10 day MA on Friday. The take away here is there is uncertainty of whether or not stocks still have more to correct or if stocks are preparing to form a left translated daily cycle. But for now, Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report