The 6/09/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar formed a daily swing low this week.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 49, placing the dollar very deep into its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Thursday. The dollar continued higher on Friday to close above the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued to close above the upper daily cycle band this past week which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Even though stocks printed a new high on Friday, stocks closed lower on the day. Friday’s bearish close may indicate a daily cycle top. If so, a peak on day 15 would signal a left translated daily cycle formation that would lead into an intermediate cycle decline. A break below 2415.70 foms a daily swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA should send stocks into their daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Signals New Daily Cycle

0

After an extended decline, the dollar formed a swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle.

$$$ Daily

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 10 peak. At 49 days, that places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low signals a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Once a the new daily cycle is confirmed, there are bigger implications on the horizon …

$$$ yearly

June is month 13 for the yearly dollar cycle. Since the dollar’s yearly cycle has averaged 9.7 months since the 2008 15 year super cycle low, this places the dollar in its timing band for a yearly cycle low. So once a new daily cycle is confirmed, it will likely mean that the dollar is embarking on a new yearly cycle as well.

Miner Breakout

0

The Miners broke convincingly above the declining trend line on Tuesday.

gdx

I received plenty of emails today asking if the Miner’s breakout on Tuesday signals that day 14 hosted an early daily cycle low. The evidence suggest no. The Miner’s first 10 daily cycles since emerging from the bear market bottom back in December, 2015 averaged 23.7 days. The previous 2 daily cycles ran 49 and 39 days respectively. So 14 days historically is just too early for a DCL, so we will label it as a half cycle low. That makes Tuesday day 22 for the daily Miner cycle. A new high on day 22 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

The second reason for labeling Tuesday as day 22 for the Miners is the status of the daily gold cycle.

gld

Gold is the driver to the precious metals market. Gold only had a mid-cycle consolidation which makes Tuesday clearly day 19. The new high on day 19 shifts the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. Which aligns with where the Miners are in their daily cycle.

sos

The Miners delivered a large Selling on Strength number on Tuesday. Often times these large Selling on Strength numbers appear at or near cycle tops. Which is another reason that supports a day 22 labeling for the Miners.

In Wednesday’s Mid-Week Report I plan to discuss where this places gold and the Miners in their intermediate cycle and tie that in with what the dollar is doing.

The 6/02/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Since the dollar printed its yearly cycle low in May, 2016 — 5 of the previous 7 daily dollars cycles were 30 days or longer. Four of them stretching past 36 days.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, stretching the current daily cycle out to day 46. At this point, a daily swing low and a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher last week.

Friday was day 10 for the daily equity cycle and stocks again printed a new high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless then close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 6/02/17 Morning Update

000000

Gold closed lower on Thursday.

gld

The lower close eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 1262.00 forms a swing high. And then a break below the daily cycle trend line confirms that the daily cycle is in decline.

Gold has yet to print a failed daily cycle during this intermediate rally. Since 2 out of the past 4 daily cycles stretched past 40 days it is still possible for gold to form a left translated daily cycle, even with a new high on day 15.

The Miners are being contained by the declining trend line and they have not followed gold higher. This bearish divergence is a signal of an impending intermediate decline for gold. The Miners have already locked in a left translated daily cycle formation.

gdx

Thursday was day 20 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners need to break below the day 15 low of 22.20 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. And if gold is in the process of forming a failed daily cycle, then the Miners will likely follow. A break below 20.89 will form a failed daily cycle for the Miners.

A rallying dollar will likely send gold into its intermediate cycle decline.

$$$ daily

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 38, following the day 10 peak. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar is also in its timing band for forming an intermediate cycle low. The dollar has already formed a daily swing low and a weekly swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle for the dollar.

The catalyst that could set things in motion is Friday’s jobs report.

Bearish Gold Divergence

0

The dollar printed its lowest point last week on Monday, day 38. Which places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low and rallied into Friday which makes it look like day 38 hosted the daily cycle low.

Then the dollar closed lower on Monday.

$$$

Even though the dollar closed lower on Monday, it still appears to be rallying out of a daily cycle low. And I think gold’s reaction on Tuesday supports that notion. Lately when the dollar declines, gold has rallied.

gold daily

In The Weekend Report we discussed the conflicting messages from gold.

The evidence that gold is in a new intermediate cycle:
* A new high on day 14 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.
* Gold is establishing a new daily uptrend.
* Week 21 places gold in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
* A weekly swing low has formed.
* Gold has broke above the declining weekly trend line.
* Gold has closed above the 50 week MA.

Reasons that prevents us from labeling May 9th as the ICL.
1) Gold has yet to deliver a failed daily cycle.
2) The dollar is beginning to rally into a new daily cycle.
3) A weekly swing low has formed on the dollar.
4) The Miners have been diverging bearishly from gold.

So instead of rallying on a day where the dollar closed lower, gold also closed lower — perhaps sensing the dollar has formed a daily cycle low. A close below 1261.80 will form a swing high on gold. Then a close below the 200 day MA will confirm that gold’s daily cycle is in decline. Since the previous 4 daily cycles for gold stretched between 28 days and 48 days, a peak on day 14 could still result in a left translated cycle formation.

Oil Delivers Bullish Signals

0 oil

On Thursday we discussed the daily oil cycle. Thursday’s 4.79% drop threatened to cause a left translated daily cycle formation. After Thursday’s drop – if oil closed below the lower daily cycle band, that would also indicate that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

However, oil reversed on Friday.

oil daily

Friday was day 15 for the daily oil cycle and oil delivered some bullish signals:
* Oil formed a bullish reversal off of support at the lower daily cycle band.
* Oil closed above the 50 day MA
* The RSI 05 reversed higher.

These are all signals of an advancing intermediate cycle. A close above 49.94 will form a swing low and mark a half cycle low. Then a close back above the upper daily cycle band will establish that oil is in a new daily uptrend.

This aligns with what is developing on the yearly cycle.

oil yearly 2

May is month 15 for the yearly oil cycle. Over the past 10 years, no yearly oil cycle stretched past 15 months, so oil is due for a yearly cycle low. But once a monthly swing low forms, it will signal that oil has begun a new yearly cycle.

oil yearly 1

And oil is currently forming a bullish monthly reversal. That will ease the parameters for forming a monthly swing low, which is a prerequisite for forming a yearly cycle low. Since May formed a lower low, the earliest a monthly swing low can form will be in June.

Oil is one of the sectors that I cover in the Weekend Report. I also cover the dollar, stocks, gold, the Miners and bonds in terms of their daily, intermediate and yearly cycles.

I am going to extend this week’s the trial subscription offer through Monday. Just click here for the special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here for the special 6 week trial subscription.

Subscribers can click here.

The 5/26/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 10 peak. Monday was day 38, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday. A close above the 10 day MA will signal that day 38 hosted the daily cycle low. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed at an all time high on Friday.

Stocks broke above the previous daily cycle high on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday. This confirmst that Friday was day 6 for the new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate that they are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in the daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Delivers Bearish Surprise

0

Oil rallied for over 2 weeks since emerging from the May 5th low. Earlier this week oil began to close above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend and that oil may have left behind an intermediate cycle low.

oil daily 2

Oil was getting stretched above the 10 day MA and was due for a cooling off or consolidation. Instead, oil delivered a surprise move lower on Thursday. Generally surprise moves occur in the direction of the trend and Thursday’s 4.79% drop indicates that oil is still in a bearish trend.

Thursday’s move lower eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 48.53 forms a daily swing high. If oil forms a daily swing high then it will also threaten closing below the lower daily cycle band. A close below the lower daily cycle band indicates that the intermediate cycle is in decline. You will notice that the previous 2 times that oil closed below the lower daily cycle band that oil ended up forming failed daily cycles.

Miner Top

0

The dollar came close to forming a daily swing low on Tuesday.

$$$ daily

Monday was the lowest point following the day 10 peak. At 38 days that places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A break above 97.33 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. And if the dollar is beginning a new daily cycle it may also be beginning a new intermediate cycle as well.

$$$ weekly

The is week 16 for the intermediate dollar cycle. The dollar printed a lower weekly low on Monday. Tuesday’s rally is causing the dollar to form a weekly bullish reversal, which will ease the parameters for forming a weekly swing low to signal a new intermediate cycle. And if the dollar is beginning a new intermediate cycle, then the first daily cycle should form as a right translated cycle rallying for 3 – 5 weeks or more. Which should send the Miners lower.

gdx

The 200 day MA stopped the previous 2 daily Miner cycles and appears to have done so again. The Miners broke lower on Tuesday, dropping over 2.3%. That caused the Miners to close below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. Tuesday was day 13 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners daily cycle have been averaging 23 days over the past 12 daily cycles which makes it likely to see the Miners trend lower for the next 2 weeks and up to 3 to 5 more weeks if the dollar is beginning a new intermediate cycle. And a break below the previous daily cycle low of 20.89 will form another failed daily cycle

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* XLE
* Copper
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here for the special 6 week trial subscription.

Subscribers can click here.