Miner Bullish Pattern Changes

0 miner surprise

I am beginning to see a some bullish pattern changes for the Miners

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The Miners printed a higher low on July 10. This was the first signal that the Miners are beginning to change their daily pattern.

The second change that is occurring involves the 200 day MA. Currently the Miners are consolidating above the 200 day MA, which is a bullish change of pattern. The previous two times the Miners broke above the 200 day MA, they reversed quickly and declined into their daily cycle low.

There is also a bullish change to the 10 day MA. On Tuesday, the Miners 10 day MA closed above the upper daily cycle band. That is very bullish signal that affirms that the Miners are beginning a new daily uptrend.

The 7/28/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued lower this week printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 46.

At 46 days the dollar is very deep in its timing band for a DCL so once a swing low forms it has good odds of marking the DCL. A break above 93.95 forms a swing low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 19. A new high on day 19 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation.

The daily oscillators have turned bearish signaling an impending daily cycle decline. A break below the day 19 high of 2459.93 would form a daily swing high to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. However, Friday’s 413 million Buying on Strength point to stocks continuing higher. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Intermediate Concerns

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Stocks were down close to 23 points early on Thursday before recovering some into the close. In order to consider the bigger implications we will begin with the weekly chart before breaking down the daily chart.

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This is week 38 for the intermediate equity cycle. The new high on week 38 assures us of a right translated weekly cycle formation. Since this is very late for an intermediate cycle decline, I believe that once stocks deliver a correction it will be brief.

And that correction may have began on Thursday …

1 spx daily

Thursday was day 19 for the daily equity cycle. The a new high on day 19 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. However the previous cycle low is less than 3% away. So if this is the start of the daily cycle decline then a failed daily cycle is certainly a possibility. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 would form a failed daily cycle and that would confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Of course in order for the daily cycle decline to begin, stocks need to form a daily swing high. A break below Thursday’s low of 2459.93 would form a daily swing high.

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Stocks need to form a weekly swing high in order to begin their intermediate decline. Since stocks printed a new weekly high this week, the earliest a weekly swing high can form would ben next week. Normally intermediate declines run at least 3 to 6 weeks. But as mentioned, since this intermediate cycle is so extended I think that the intermediate decline will be brief. Stocks would need to break below 2405.70 in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

Miner Suspicion

0 miner surprise

On Wednesday the Miners broke bullishly from being squeezed by the 50 DMA & the 10 DMA. The Miners broke above the 10 DMA, 50 DMA & the 200 DMA. They also closed above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend.

1 gdx daily short term

This breakout reminds me of the June breakout.

2 gdx longer view

June 6th the Miners broke above the 10 DMA, 50 DMA & the 200 DMA. They also closed convincingly above the upper daily cycle band to signal an end to the daily downtrend. But the Miners delivered a bearish signal on June 6th by printing 356 million in SOS. That eventually lead to the Miners dropping over 9% and printing an extended 45 day DCL on 7/10/17.

This makes me suspicious of the current breakout.

3 gdx sos

Prior to Wednesday there had been 897 million in Selling On Strength. Wednesday the Miners printed another 289 million in SOS. This has me suspicious of a repeat performance.

4 gdx trend line

While the Miners did print a higher low on July 10th, I will need to see a clear and convincing break above the declining trend line to be persuaded that the Miners are in a new daily uptrend.

Miner Warning

0 miner surprise

In the Weekend Report we discussed how gold formed a weekly swing low signaling a new intermediate cycle.

gld weekly

Part of the rationale that gold did form an intermediate low included gold closing convincingly above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Also gold closing above both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA supports a new weekly cycle scenario.

However, Monday’s drop in the Miners is a warning signal that the intermediate low for gold is yet to come.

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Recently the daily Miner cycles have been stretching 27 – 33 days so a peak on day 10 can surely result in a left translated daily cycle. Monday’s swing high and 1.61% drop signals the daily cycle is beginning its daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will provide more evidence that the daily cycle decline has begun. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band will indicate that the Miners are continuing their intermediate cycle decline. Last week we discussed how the accumulated 818 million Selling on Strength indicated of a left translated cycle formation. And this aligns with our yearly cycle count for the Miners.

gdx yearly

The yearly Miner cycle peaked in February and then printed its lowest point in May, month 5, which is too early for a yearly cycle low. Since cycle low is defined as the lowest point following the cycle peak, then the Miners will need to break below the May low of 20.89 in order to complete its yearly cycle decline.

So if gold loses both the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA then that would indicate that this is week 11 and gold is continuing its intermediate cycle decline.

The 7/21/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued lower this week, printing a lower low on Friday.

Friday was day 42, placing the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied by a break above the declining 10 day MA should signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline.

If stocks deliver bearish follow through to Friday’s swing high that would make day 14 the cycle peak. A peak on day 14 favors a left translated cycle formation. With the intermediate cycle on week 37, a left translated cycle would likely lead to the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks would need to break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 to form a failed daily cycle. However, stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Possible Left Translated Bond Cycle

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The intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 15 and then formed a weekly swing high that saw bonds break below the weekly trend line to confirm that bonds began their intermediate cycle decline.

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The rally over the past 2 weeks has been enough for bonds to form a weekly swing low. A weekly swing low could indicate a new intermediate cycle but that would mean that bonds printed a 16 week intermediate cycle. Since the intermediate bond cycle normally runs 18 – 26 weeks, I am suspicious that this 2 week rally in bonds may only be a counter trend rally that will set up the declining weekly trend line.

In order for that to happen then the current daily cycle will need to form as a left translated daily cycle.

tlt_daily

Thursday was day 9 for the daily bond cycle. The new high on day 9 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. Bonds would need to have to roll over immediately in order to maintain the possibility of a left translated cycle formation.

Bonds did print an exhaustion candle on Thursday. A swing high here would signal that bonds were beginning their daily cycle decline. Bonds did not close above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. Since bonds began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 19 low means that bonds had begun a daily downtrend. So if bonds were to form a swing high then they will remain in their daily downtrend which would likely result in a left translated cycle formation.

Daily Equity Cycle Update

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Stocks are firmly in a weekly uptrend that is characterized by lows forming above the lower weekly cycle band and highs forming above the upper weekly cycle band. Stocks will remain in their weekly uptrend until they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

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Despite being in a weekly uptrend there are some bearish signals beginning to develop. First, stocks are very deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. Also there are bearish divergences developing on the weekly oscillators.

And there is a potential bearish set up developing on the daily chart.

spx daily

Stocks broke out above the previous daily cycle high on Friday, day 10. However stocks have yet to deliver any kind of bullish follow through. If stocks break below the day 10 high of 2446.69 they will form a daily swing high and a failed break out. Then a close below the 10 day MA would set up a left translated daily cycle formation.

Miner Update

0 miner surprise

The Miners broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

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I have received some emails asking if the Miners have also began a new intermediate cycle. There is no evidence on the daily chart to suggest that the Miners are in a new intermediate cycle. In fact, the Miners are currently in a daily downtrend, which is characterized by lows forming below the lower daily cycle band and highs forming below the upper daily cycle band. The Miners will need to close above the upper daily cycle band to signal a new intermediate cycle.

So while there is no evidence pointing to the Miners being in a new intermediate cycle, there is a weekly swing low that has formed which does open the possibility that the intermediate low has printed.

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The Miners formed a weekly swing low on Monday. Our weekly cycle count places the Miners on week 11, which is too early for an intermediate cycle low. Only a close above the declining 50 week MA would change that view.

The Selling on Strength numbers also support that the Miners are still seeking out their intermediate cycle low.

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Monday was day 5 for the new Miner cycle. Four of the past five days were bullish for the Miners. However, four of the past five days saw the Miners print large Selling on Strength numbers. And these large SOS numbers are the type of numbers associated with an intermediate decline.

The 7/17/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point on day 28. It has formed a swing low but has been contained by the 10 day MA so it is not clear if day 28 hosted a DCL.

A break above the declining trend line is needed to confirm day 28 hosted the DCL. But a break below the day 28 low of 95.22 will extend the daily cycle decline which would make Friday day 36. That aligns with 6 of the previous 8 daily cycles exceeding 30 days. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing low and closed above the declining trend line on Wednesday. Then provided bullish follow through on Thursday to confirm that day 29 hosted an early DCL.

Stocks continued higher, closing at an all time high on Friday. While the status of the intermediate cycle has us expecting a left translated daily cycle formation, the fact remains that stocks are in a daily uptrend. The will continue it their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report