The 1/08/22 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 22, which is a bit early for a DCL.

While the dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Monday, it did not deliver any bullish follow through. Then the dollar lost the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 95.54 will form a failed daily cycle. he dollar currently is in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks

Stocks have been consolidating below the 4800 resistance level until Wednesday.

Stocks printed a huge bearish candle on Wednesday to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 23, which is a bit early to expect a DCL. So any bounce off the 50 day MA should be contained by the 10 day MA so stocks can complete their daily cycle decline. 

However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA then that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Under this scenario, we would label day 23 as an early DCL. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Stocks Found Support

Stocks printed a huge bearish candle on Wednesday, forming a swing high and closing below the 4700 level to signal the daily cycle decline. With stocks overdue for a yearly cycle low this could send stocks to seek out their YCL.  

But instead of delivering bearish follow through, stocks found support at the rising 50 day MA on Thursday.

Thursday was only day 22 for the daily cycle, which is too early to expect a DCL to form. While stocks broke below the 38 fib level, they should still turn the 10 day MA before they form their DCL. So any bounce off the 50 day MA should be contained by the 10 day MA so stocks can complete their daily cycle decline.

However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA then that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Under this scenario, we would label day 22 as an early DCL.

More Resistance

Despite forming a bullish reversal on Monday followed by a swing low on Tuesday, stocks are still being contained by the 4800 resistance level.

A bullish break above resistance could send stocks to 4900 or even 5000. But as we discussed with stocks being overdue for their yearly cycle decline,  rejection here may set the ‘dominos’ in motion to lead to the intermediate and yearly cycle declines.

Miner Sell Signal

The Miners formed a daily swing high on Monday.

The Miners closed convincingly below the 50 day MA and also lost the 10 day MA on Monday.

In addition to losing both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA, the Miners also broke below the daily cycle trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 11 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation.

Following last intermediate cycle peak the Miners ran into resistance at the 50 day MA (1) in August and was turned lower. Then once again they were rejected by the 50 day MA in early September (2) then went on to complete their intermediate cycle decline in late September. Now it looks like November was the intermediate cycle peak and the Miners were rejected again by the 50 day MA (3). Any bearish follow through will send the Miners to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

This week I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. click here.

The First Domino

The first domino fell on Friday.

After consolidating below resistance for 2 months, stocks broke out convincingly above the resistance level on Monday. Stocks became stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday and started to consolidate, which will help to allow the 10 day MA catch up to price.  However, stocks formed a swing high on Friday. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the resistance level that will signal the daily cycle decline. And may set the ‘dominos’ in motion to lead to the intermediate and yearly cycle declines. I discuss this in the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. click here.

Bearish Divergence

Stocks became stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday. They have since been consolidating which is helping to allow the 10 day MA catch up to price.

While stocks are at all-time highs, there are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often herald a cycle decline. If stocks form a swing high and close back below the breakout level that will signal the daily cycle decline. And if this breakout fails I think that will also trigger the intermediate and yearly cycle declines, which I plan to further discuss in the Weekend Report.

Miner Rejection At the 50 MA

The Miners were rejected by the 50 day MA on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 8 for the daily cycle. A peak on day 8 would indicate a left translated daily cycle formation. Which aligns with the Miners currently being in a daily downtrend. If the Miners form a swing high below the upper daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily downtrend and trigger a cycle band sell signal. A break below 31.07 will form a daily swing high.

Stocks Cross Above Resistance Line

Monday during the pre-market we noted that stocks were running into resistance.

We also noted that stocks have been consolidating below resistance for the past few months.

After consolidating below resistance for 2 months, breaking out convincingly above the resistance level can lead to a a trending move. Stops can be moved to the new breakout level.

The 12/24/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear. While the dollar formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on day 22, it did not do ‘enough’ for us to label day 22 as the DCL.  

However, the dollar is behaving as if day 22 was the DCL.  The dollar has been trading in a narrow range for the past 3 week plus weeks.   The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday then backtested it on Thursday.  A bearish break out of consolidation will signal the daily cycle decline. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks rallied to close above the 4715 resistance level on Thursday.

Closing above the 4715 resistance level was our signal to add to positions. Stops can now be raised to the rising 10 day MA. RSI 05 formed a quick bullish reversal on Monday. We are now watching to see if RSI 05 will embed in overbought to indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. A quick bearish reversal will be a signal that stocks are shifting into the declining phase of their intermediate cycle.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.