The 6/22/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar’s bearish reversal on day 5 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar followed up Thursday’s bearish reversal by forming a daily swing high. The dollar also closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the beginning of the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 5 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework, which I discuss in the Weekend Report. However, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28. Then went on to form a swing high and close below the day 10 MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 32, which places stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Wednesday’s swing low signaled a new daily cycle.

But stocks formed a swing high on Thursday, negating Wednesday’s swing low. A break below 2743.19 will extend the daily cycle decline. But a close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Buy Signal Negated

The cycle band buy signal was negated on Thursday.

On Wednesday stocks formed a swing low above the upper daily cycle band. This signaled that stocks remain in a daily uptrend and delivered a cycle band buy signal.

But that changed on Thursday.

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday which negated the cycle band buy signal. It also signaled that stocks are still declining into their daily cycle low. The swing high also allows us to construct a declining trend line. So now a swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks Deliver Cycle Band Buy Signal

Stocks delivered a cycle band buy signal on Wednesday.

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs (lows) above the lower daily cycle band. The decline into the day 32 low was mild but did mange to close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower. The swing low that formed on Wednesday formed above the lower daily cycle band to deliver a cycle band buy signal and indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Daily Cycle Decline

On Tuesday, stocks confirmed their daily cycle decline.

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA and also broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that the daily cycle is in decline. The peak on day 28 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. With Tuesday being day 32, stocks are in their timing band to print a DCL. So once a swing low forms, it will have good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

Stocks have established a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band that would indicate that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and would be a signal to enter long positions.

Still Waiting on a Cycle Band Buy Signal

Stocks have established that they are in a daily uptrend. A daily uptrend is price series that is characterized by peaks forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows (troughs) forming below the lower daily cycle band.

Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks have formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA, stocks still need to deliver a break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

I would prefer to see a clear and convincing break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that the daily cycle is in decline. But we need to be ready should stocks deliver a cycle band buy signal. Since stocks are in a daily uptrend, a swing low that forms above the lower daily cycle band will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend. Therefore the formation of a swing low above the lower daily cycle band will trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Watching for a Cycle Band Buy Signal

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 28 and formed a daily swing high on Friday. With stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline the swing high signals that the daily cycle decline is beginning.

While stocks broke below the 10 day MA on Friday they ended up closing above it to form a bullish reversal. This is setting up a possible cycle band buy signal. A break above 2782.81 will form a swing low above the upper daily cycle band confirming a cycle band buy signal.

While our cyclical expectation is for stocks to decline into a daily cycle low, the Advance/Decline line is delivering a bullish expectation.

The Advanced/Decline line has clearly broken out to new highs and stocks are likely to follow. So while stocks are in their timing band to seek out a DCL and formed a swing high, if a swing low forms here stocks could be setting up for a trending move.

The Mighty Dollar

The dollar ended last week forming a weekly swing high that followed the tag of the 50 week MA.

The weekly swing high signaled that the beginning of the intermediate cycle decline. This also aligned with our longer term view of the dollar declining into its 3 year cycle.

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The dollar began the day on Thursday by breaking below the day 36 low. At first it appeared that the new daily cycle was rolling over on day 4.

Then boom.

The dollar began to rally and closed near the high of the day to print a bullish engulfing candle. This extends the daily cycle decline to make Thursday day 41 of an extended daily cycle. The below the bullish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 94.61 forms a swing low to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar certainly surprised us with its bullish print on Thursday. Since surprises tend to arrive on the side of the trend, Thursday’s dollar surprise clearly indicates a bullish trend. In the Weekend report I plan to discuss what Thursday’s bullish surprise means on the longer term 3 year cycle . And what would need to happen to cause us to change our longer term 3 year cycle framework.

S.O.S. is Adding Up

Stocks printed another 248 million Selling on Strength on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. We discussed on Saturday how the Selling n Strength numbers have really been adding up. There was already 2.3 billion SOS prior to last Friday. And since then an additional 833 million Selling on Strength has occurred bringing the total to over 3.2 billion. So while SOS is not a precise timing instrument, the accumulation of SOS is becoming significant.

Smart money has been selling into strength in anticipation of a cycle decline. A likely trigger for the pending cycle decline is the FOMC meeting. It is expected that the Fed will increase its policy rate to 1.75 to 2.0 percent. With stocks being close to their timing band for a daily cycle low combined with the huge SOS numbers makes it likely that we will see a “sell the news” scenario sending stocks into their pending cycle decline.

About to Cross the Line

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 36, placing it late in its timing band for a DCL. Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle.

The dollar needs to break above the declining daily cycle trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. And a bullish break above the declining trend line will likely send the Miners lower.

Monday was day 12 for the daily Miner cycle. So if the dollar delivers a bullish break of its declining trend line confirming its new daily cycle that will likely send the Miners lower. A break below the daily cycle trend line for the Miners will confirm the daily cycle decline. And with a peak on day 1 assures us of a left translated daily cycle formation.

So while the dollar is on the verge of confirming a new daily cycle, the dollar is nearing its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. In my Special Report: The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye I discuss where the dollar is on its weekly cycle. I also look at where it is on the longer term 15 year super cycle. I cover the last time the dollar delivered a Kiss Goodbye and the 151% gain that followed in the Miners – and – how the current set up is similar.

I would like to make available the special report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney special report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye

The dollar tagged the 200 week MA the previous week.
Last week the dollar formed a weekly swing high.
I believe that the weekly swing high is setting the stage for a kiss goodbye.

The dollar printed an early YCl in February so it ins not surprising to see the dollar form a right translated weekly cycle as it emerged from its yearly cycle low. This is only week 16 for the intermediate dollar cycle. There is plenty of time for the dollar to complete one more daily cycle to bring it in its timing band for its ICL. Therefore we are watching of a left translated daily cycle formation once the dollar confirms the new daily cycle.

The dollar is running into resistance at the convergence of the 50 month MA & the declining 20 month MA. Coupled that with the weekly swing high and you can begin to see that the status of the longer term dollar cycles are aligning for a major opportunity for the Miners

In my special Report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye I will breakdown where the dollar is for its longer term 3 year cycle and 15 year super cycle. Then we will look at what happened to the Miners the last time this set up occurred and then look at the current Miner charts.

I would like to make available the special report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney special report The Dollar’s Kiss Goodbye and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.