Sinister Swing High

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We discussed on Saturday how stocks peaked on day 21, formed a swing high and then breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday setting up for a daily cycle decline.

Stocks delivered a clear and convincing trend line break on Tuesday, confirming that the daily cycle is in decline.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that something more sinister is afoot. I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which will confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

spx weekly buy op

Tuesday’s daily cycle trend line break has caused stocks to form a weekly swing high. At 34 weeks stocks are very late in its weekly cycle and due for an intermediate decline. Stocks are currently sitting right on the weekly trend line. If stocks continue their daily cycle decline they will break below the weekly trend line signaling that the weekly cycle is in decline. And in the Weekend Report I plan to tie this in with the status of the yearly cycle.

Steel is Coiling

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Steel broke above the declining trend line to signal that Monday was day 5 for the new daily cycle. I would like to see a close above the declining 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle.

slx daily

Steel printed its lowest point last Tuesday, day 21, which places steel in its timing band for a DCL. If last Tuesday is confirmed as the daily cycle low that will mean that steel printed higher low from the May 18th low. A higher low would indicate that steel has completed the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. We have been unable to confirm a new intermediate cycle because steel has been coiling below the 37.80 level for the past 8 weeks.

slx weekly

Steel appears to have printed a failed intermediate cycle low in May.
Steel printed its lowest point during the second week of May following the week 8 peak. 20 weeks places steel in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Steel is also in its timing band for forming a yearly cycle low. Once a new weekly cycle is confirmed it will signal that the new yearly cycle has begun.

Steel has been coiling below the the 37.80 level for the past 8 weeks. A close above the 37.80 level will confirm the new intermediate cycle and signal that steel has begun a new yearly cycle.

The 6/23/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its lowest point the preceding week on Thursday, day 54. The dollar has since formed a swing low and closed consistently above the 10 day MA signaling a new daily cycle.

The dollar still needs to close above the declining trend line to confirm that Friday was day 6 of the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will continue until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks peaked on Monday, day 21. Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday then breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday setting up for a daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 25, placing stocks 5 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. A clear and convincing break of the daily cycle trend line is needed to confirm the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which confirms that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The huge Selling on Strength number from Friday supports this possible scenario.

Stocks printed 783 million SOS on Friday. This is the type of SOS number that is associated with an intermediate cycle top.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Delivers a Bullish Signal

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Oil formed an inside day on Thursday. This is a bullish signal of an impending daily cycle low.

oil daily

Oil printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 32, which places oil in its timing band to form a daily cycle low. An inside day that forms in the timing band for a daily cycle low has good odds of signaling a new daily cycle. At this point oil needs to form a swing low and break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. A break above 44.20 forms a daily swing low.

In the Weekend Report I will discuss that once a daily cycle low forms for oil, that it will likely mark the weekly and yearly cycle lows as well.

Stocks Deliver a Bearish Signal

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Stocks formed a daily swing high on Tuesday.

spx daily

Tuesday was day 22 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks formed a swing high off the day 21 peak. A break below the daily cycle trend line will signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Usually a peak on day 21, or thereafter, assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. However, due to the status of the intermediate cycle I believe that the current daily cycle is still at risk of forming as a left translated, failed daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2352.72 forms a failed daily cycle, which confirms that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

spx weekly

This is week 33 for the intermediate cycle. The weekly cycle is stretched and overdue for an intermediate cycle decline. So confirmation of the daily cycle decline could trigger the intermediate cycle decline as well.

Watching for a Biotech Breakout

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Biotech’s 2.41% gain on Monday rekindled my interest in this sector.

1 ibb weekly

Biotech had a great multi-year run peaking in July, 2015. It went on to print its mutli-year low in February of 2016. And since then it has been consolidating below the 300 level.

2 ibb weekly

A closer look reveals that Biotech has recently had multiple tests of the 300 level.

3 ibbalignm,ent

Notice how the 50 week MA is now aligned with the 200 week MA.

4 ibb dcl

Since the last test of the 300 level was launched from support from the convergence of both the 50 week MA & the 200 week MA, a clear and convincing close above the 300 level should break Biotech out of its 16 month consolidation.

The 6/16/17 Weekend Report preview

The Dollar
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The dollar undercut the day 49 low, extending the daily cycle out to day 54. The dollar formed a daily swing low on Thursday indicating that day 54 hosted the DCL.

54 days places the dollar very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Still, the dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has been closing below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Day 15 remains as the daily cycle high keeping alive the possibility of a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for the past two plus weeks. The bearish divergence developing on the momentum oscillators indicate a bearish resolution to the consolidation. A break below the day 15 low of 2415.70 will form a daily swing high and indicating a left translated cycle formation. Stocks remain in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Low

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The dollar printed it lowest point on Wednesday following an extended daily cycle decline. Then the dollar formed a swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle.

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Even though the past 7 daily cycles have stretched to over 32 days from trough to trough, Wednesday was day 54 making this a very stretched daily cycle. The dollar formed a clear and convincing daily swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle. The dollar still needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Once the new daily cycle is confirmed, I suspect that the dollar will also leave behind an intermediate and a yearly cycle low, which I plan to cover in the Weekend Report.

As the dollar rallies out of its yearly cycle low that should send gold into its yearly cycle decline.

gld weekly

Gold formed a weekly swing low off the week 21 low. Gold then regained 50 week MA and closed above the upper weekly cycle band on week 3 to indicate that week 21 hosted the ICL. The only thing missing from the week 21 low was a failed daily cycle. Otherwise all indications are the gold is now in its 2nd intermediate cycle for the year. I suspect that the impending dollar rally out of its yearly cycle low will see the dollar form a right translated weekly cycle. That should cause this new intermediate gold cycle to form as a left translated weekly cycle leading into its yearly cycle decline. Which appears to be in progress.

So far this week gold has formed a weekly swing high. If gold manages to close below both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA that will further indicate that gold has begun its intermediate cycle decline. The peak on week 4 will assure us of a left translated weekly cycle formation. Since a failed weekly cycle is needed to confirm the yearly cycle decline gold will need to break below the previous ICL of 1214.30 to form a failed weekly cycle.

Still Seeking a Steel Bottom

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Back in April I began scouting for a yearly cycle low for steel. I admit that I was early. However I kept monitoring SLX and now the indicators are pointing to a possible yearly cycle low for steel.

3 slx yearly

Steel printed its lowest point in May following the month 13 peak. May was month 16 for the yearly steel cycle. Since the previous 5 yearly cycles averaged 10.4 months, 16 months places steel late in its timing band to print a yearly cycle low. So far steel has been rallying in June. A break above the May high of 38.59 forms a monthly swing low to signal a new yearly cycle.

1 slx weekly

The previous 7 intermediate steel cycles have averaged 16.7 weeks. Steel printed its lowest point back in May, at week 20. That places steel deep in in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While steel has printed a weekly swing low we can see that steel has been coiling and has yet to deliver confirmation that week 20 hosted the intermediate cycle low.

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Tuesday was day 17 for the daily steel cycle. At this point steel may need to dip down and print one more daily cycle low before breaking through the declining 50 day MA. But once steel closes above the 50 day MA, it will also close above the upper daily cycle band. A close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new intermediate cycle and also that May hosted the yearly cycle low.

The 6/12/17 Evening Report

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The dollar closed lower on Monday.

$$$ Daily

Monday was day 4 for the dollar’s daily cycle. After an extended daily cycle decline, it is not unreasonable for the dollar to back test the 10 day MA before the daily cycle starts to gain some traction.

And once the dollar’s daily cycle begins to gain some traction that will cause the dollar to form a weekly swing low.

$$$ weekly

The dollar printed its lowest point last week, following the week 4 peak. At 18 weeks, that places the dollar in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So if last Tuesday, June 6th, did host the DCL then the rally into a new daily cycle will likely see the dollar go on to form a weekly swing low. A break above 97.47 forms a weekly swing low to signal a new intermediate cycle.

And if the dollar begins a new intermediate cycle, that should send gold into its intermediate cycle decline. But before gold rolls over into an intermediate cycle low there is the potential for this daily cycle to form as a right translated daily cycle.

gld daily

Monday was day 23 for the daily gold cycle. That does place gold in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The 2 obvious areas that could trigger a daily cycle low would from support at the 50 day MA or the 20 day MA.

gld weekly

Gold is in its 2nd intermediate cycle of the year. If the dollar is rallying out of its yearly cycle low that will potentially send gold into its yearly cycle decline. Gold has already formed a weekly swing high following the bearish reversal on week 4. A close below the 50 week MA will signal the intermediate decline for gold.