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Update: Gold – The Next Trending Move

Back on 10/30 we looked at the big picture for gold.

We discussed that gold was in a monthly triangle consolidation and that a breakout of this multi- year consolidation should result in a powerful trending move.

Gold is breaking out.

A full report on gold, including the daily, weekly and yearly cycle can be found here.

Miner Stop

The Miners have been contained by the 200 day MA since losing it in June. 

The Miners broke above the 200 day MA on Wednesday and delivered some bullish follow through on Thursday. Closing above the 200 day MA indicates a change in trend and stops can be raised to the 200 day MA. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend.  The Miners will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks Form A Swing High

Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 26 for the daily equity cycle.  That places stocks 4 days shy of their timing band for a DCL. Any bearish follow through should send stocks into their daily cycle decline. A daily cycle decline would allow stocks to backtest the breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. This would set stocks up to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year. Stocks are currently in. a daily uptrend. If they form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Bullish Follow Through

Stocks have broken above the previous all all time highs.

Stocks are delivering bullish follow through on the breakout of the 4545.85 level which could trigger a melt-up phase. However, I suspect that a daily cycle decline will backtest the breakout level before the we see the melt-up phase.

Stocks are currently getting stretched above the 10 day MA. At 25 days, stocks are 5 days shy of their timing band for a DCL. A daily cycle decline would allow stocks to backtest the breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. This would also allow stocks to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year.

The 11/06/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

At 23 weeks for the weekly cycle and 10 months for the yearly cycle, the dollar is late in both timing bands for an intermediate and yearly cycle decline.

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday, day 6. A top on day 6 would set the dollar up for a left translated daily cycle formation. Then any bearish follow through could trigger the intermediate and yearly cycle decline. The dollar is currently, in a daily uptrend.  But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin  a daily downtrend.

Stocks

Stocks continued higher on this week.

The new high on day 24 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The decline into the ICL stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. Stocks are delivering bullish follow through on the breakout of the 4545.85 level. This could trigger a melt-up phase. I suspect that a daily cycle decline will back test the breakout level before the we see the melt-up phase.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Miner Confirmation

The Miners formed a bullish engulfing candle on Wednesday.  

The Miners printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 25, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. Wednesday’s bullish engulfing candle closed back above the 50 day MA which may have marked the DCL. While the Miners formed a swing low on Thursday, we really need to see a close above the declining trend line to signal the new daily cycle.

Then the Miners will need to close above the 200 day MA in order for a trending move to develop.

Bullish Follow Through

Stocks continued higher on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The decline into the ICL stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. Stocks are delivering bullish follow through on the breakout of the 4545.85 level. This could trigger a melt-up phase.

Potential Miner Buy Signal

The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 23 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in the early part of their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners retraced to the 50% fib level then formed a bullish reversal off support from the 50 day MA. That eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break aboveh 32.01 will form a swing low. The Miners are in a daily uptrend. If they form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Gold – The Next Trending Move

Gold closed below both the 200 day MA and the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline.   Gold should go on to turn the 10 day MA lower as it seeks out its DCL.

But today, I want to focus in on the big picture.

Gold is in a monthly triangle consolidation. In a triangle consolidation the cycle low can migrate to the apex of the triangle. A break out of this multi- year consolidation should result in a powerful trending move.

Stocks Deliver Buy Signal

After breaking out to new all time highs on Tuesday, stocks backtested the breakout level on Wednesday.

After emerging from the ICL stocks have begun closing above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The decline into the ICL has stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. If stocks deliver bullish follow through on the backtest of the 4545.85 level then that could trigger a melt-up phase.