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Major Trend Change For Miners

The Miners tested the 200 day MA on Thursday.

The Miners printed their ICL in early March. The first daily cycle peaked just below the 200 day MA. The resulting daily cycle decline saw the Miners backtest the declining multi month trend line. The Miners rallied off of the declining trend line and now are testing the 200 day MA. A close back above the 200 day MA will signal a major change of trend.

Daily Cycle Decline

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 42. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete their daily cycle decline. However, we may need to be open to the possibility that this is all the correction that we will get at this time.

After consolidating for 3 days, the Banking Index formed a bullish engulfing candle and closed at a new all time high.

The Transports also broke bullishly out of a short consolidation to close at a new all time high.

Stocks have been in a strong daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the upper daily cycle band then they will remain in their strong daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A close above the day 39 high of 4218.78 will have us label day 42 as the DCL.

Miners Deliver Bullish Response

The Miners ran into resistance just below the 200 day MA. They had been in decline — until Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, day 41, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 41 as the DCL. Since the Miners were in a daily uptrend, Monday’s swing low signals that the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The bigger picture shows us that the Miners delivered a bullish response to the backtest of the declining multi-month trend line. A close back above the 200 day MA will signal a major change of trend.

The 5/01/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 44. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday. It managed to close above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA to indicate the new daily cycle. The dollar will likely face resistance at the converging 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

After breaking bullishly higher high on Thursday, stocks failed to deliver bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 40 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday. A close below the 10 day MA (4143.69) will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.

Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Time To Raise Stops

After consolidating for the past two weeks, stocks broke bullishly out of consolidation.

Thursday was day 39 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline. Instead, stocks backtested the 10 day MA then broke out to a new all-time high on Thursday. This allows us to construct an accelerated trend line.

Stocks have been going vertical since the March DCL. Stops can be raised to the pivot that was formed by backtesting the 10 day MA – 4174.12

Dollar Ready To Rally?

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, day 41 placing it deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close above the declining trend line will have us label day 41 as the DCL.

It seems that the Miners are behaving like the dollar is emerging from a DCL.

The daily Miner cycle peaked on Wednesday and formed a swing high on Thursday. The Miners responded to the dollar forming a swing low on Tuesday by closing convincingly below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.

Bearish Divergence

Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Monday.

Monday was day 36 for the daily cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The bearish divergence on the oscillators has me suspicious that any breakout will be reversed to send stocks into their daily cycle decline. At this point a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. And a close below Tuesday’s low of 4118.38 would be a lower low, confirming the daily cycle decline.

The 4/24/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the day 37 low on Friday.

Closing below the day 37 extends the daily cycle decline which makes Friday day 40. That places the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. A. swing high and close above the declining trend line will signal the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Something to keep in mind once the DCL has formed is that this is now week 15 for the intermediate cycle. The dollar will likely need one more – left translated daily cycle in order to complete its intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks printed a higher high on Friday.

The higher high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. At 35 days, that places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A break below Tuesday’s low of 4118.38 will signal the daily cycle decline. However, stocks have been going vertical since the March DCL.

One strategy is be to use Tuesday’s low of 4118.38 as a stop. If stocks close above Friday’s high of 4194.17 then Friday’s higher will become the stop. Another strategy one could use is a swing high and break below the accelerated trend line to signal the daily cycle decline.  As stocks continue to get stretched above the 200 day MA, once a correction begins — it will likely be violent. A third strategy would be to decide to lock in profits early and wait for the next cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Lose The 10 Day MA – Again

Stocks lost the 10 day MA on Tuesday, regained it on Wednesday, then lost it again on Thursday.

Thursday was day 34 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators that often precede a cycle decline. We will use a break below Tuesday’s low of 4118.38 to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should then go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as they seek out their daily cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks Deliver Bearish Follow Through

After forming a daily swing high on Monday, stocks delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. Stocks should go on to break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line as it seeks out its daily cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.