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Oil About to Confirm New Uptrend

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After emerging form its yearly cycle low in June, oil tested and was rejected by the 50 day MA. But oil recovered and then continued to rally, peaking on day 27. Then oil began its daily cycle decline, printing its lowest point on Thursday, day 39.

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At day 39, that placed oil in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Oil formed a swing low on Friday off of support from the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to declining into its 39 day DCL to establish a daily uptrend. Oil managed to close above the lower daily cycle band as it printed its DCL on Thursday. Once oil closes back above the upper daily cycle band that will confirm the new daily uptrend. Oil will then remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The 8/18/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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We would like to see a close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL but so far the rally out of the day 50 low has been weak.

Friday was day 12 of the new daily cycle. A daily cycle trend line has formed and the dollar has already printed a swing high off the day 10 peak. A break below the daily cycle trend line would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a punishing daily downtrend. It will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
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Stocks formed a lower low on Friday, extending the daily cycle decline.

Friday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Friday’s narrow range day does ease the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2420.69 forms a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

However stocks formed a weekly swing high this week. Stocks maybe pulled lower by the gravitational pull of the impending ICL. A failed daily cycle would confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below their previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 will form a failed daily cycle. I discuss this in greater detail in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Break Lower

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When stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday it looked as if day 29 hosted an early DCL. Then stocks broke lower on Thursday.

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Even though stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday, breaking lower on Thursday prevented the 10 day MA from turning up higher, which would have been a confirmation that day 29 hosted the DCL. Instead stocks set the declining trend line on Wednesday. This makes Thursday day 34 for the daily equity cycle placing stocks in their timing band for their daily cycle low.

Thursday’s drop caused stocks to close below the lower daily cycle band. That signals not only are stocks extending their daily cycle decline but they have also entered their intimidate cycle decline. A failed daily cycle confirms that stocks are declining into their intimidate cycle low. So even though a peak on day 27 sets up a potential right translated cycle formation, stocks could break below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 in oder to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. But since the weekly cycle is very stretched at 41 weeks, any intermediate cycle decline would likely be short lived.

Possible Daily Cycle Low for Oil

Oil printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

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The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. Oil did not form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil finally broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point on Tuesday. At 37 days, that places oil well within its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal also eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 47.92 forms a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle.

Oil had been closing above the upper daily cycle band prior to entering its daily cycle decline, which indicates that oil is in a daily uptrend. If oil forms a daily cycle low above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

Daily Cycle Low

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Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

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Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 29. After a narrow range day on Friday stocks rallied enough on Monday to recover all of Thursday’s drop. That and the fact that stocks also formed a daily swing low convinces me that the daily cycle low has been set. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will confirm the new daily cycle.

Oil confirmed its daily cycle decline on Monday.

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The daily oil cycle peaked on day 27. It did not manage to form a daily swing high until Friday, day 35. Oil broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm that oil is in its daily cycle decline. Monday was day 36, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. If a swing low forms now, it has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. If the daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band then oil will remain in its daily uptrend.

The 8/11/17 Weekend Report Preview

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed a narrow range day on Friday.

Friday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low is required to mark the daily cycle low. Stocks did not break lower on Friday as they formed the narrow range day. Stocks need to do one of 2 things to form a swing low. First they could print another narrow range day that is a lower than Thursday’s low of 2437.75. That would ease the parameters for forming a daily swing low. Otherwise stocks will need to break above Thursday’s high of 2465.38 in order to form a swing low.

A peak on day 27 normally assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But with the weekly cycle stretched to 40 weeks we cannot rule out the possibility of stocks breaking below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 in order to form a failed daily cycle which would allow stocks to complete an intermediate cycle decline.

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on 8/04/17 to signal that day 50 hosted a stretched daily cycle low.

The dollar has not yet broke above the declining trend line for final confirmation that day 50 hosted the DCL. So it is unclear if Friday was with day 7 or day 57. But since the dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Friday that indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. What is clear is that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and is declining into its yearly cycle low. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

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And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here through Sunday. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Stocks Deliver Bearish Follow Through

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Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday. On Wednesday stocks formed a swing high which signaled the daily cycle decline. Thursday's bearish follow through indicates something more sinister than a daily cycle decline is afoot.

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Thursday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks broke below the 50 day MA to close below the lower daily cycle band which indicates an end to the daily uptrend. It also signals that the intermediate cycle is now in decline. While a peak on day 27 usually results in a right translated cycle formation, stocks closing below the lower daily cycle band calls that in to question. Which means breaking below the previous daily cycle low of 2405.70 is certainly a possibility. If that were to happen that would confirm that stocks are in an intermediate cycle decline.

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The weekly chart shows that stocks are still in a weekly uptrend that is characterized by weekly highs above the upper weekly cycle band and lows forming above the lower weekly cycle band. At 39 weeks stocks are very deep in their timing band to begin an intermediate cycle decline. So while the close below the lower daily cycle band signals that stocks are beginning their intermediate decline, a weekly swing high is required. Since stocks printed a new high this week, the earliest a weekly swing high can form will be next week. But even if stocks form a weekly swing high next week stocks will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

Uptrends

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Tonight I wanted to look at some different stages of uptrends, beginning with stocks.

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Even though stocks formed a swing high on Wednesday, they remain firmly in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and troughs above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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Gold began to close above the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower last Friday. Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 21, but did not close below the lower daily cycle band. Now that gold has closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday, this establishes that gold is in a new daily uptrend. Gold should remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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The Miners also began to close above the upper daily cycle band prior to peaking on day 16. Like gold, the Miners did not close below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. If he Miners can now close back above the upper daily cycle band it too, will have established a new daily uptrend.

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Conversely, the dollar’s decline into the YCL is stretching its daily cycles resulting in a punishing daily downtrend. The downtrend has been characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Even though the dollar has formed a swing low and appears to have begun a new daily cycle, the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

And I believe that this punishing decline into the YCL is part of a bigger shift on the dollar that I discuss in the Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update.

In this Special Report, Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update. we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Stocks Form Bearish Reversal

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Stocks printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday.

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Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks 3 days shy of their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks formed a bearish reversal after breaking out to a new high on Tuesday. The bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 2472.99 will form a swing high to signal that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

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As we discussed here last week, even if stocks form a daily swing high to begin their daily cycle decline the bigger picture is that stocks are in a daily uptrend. This uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. So even is stocks decline into a daily cycle low, they will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Death of the Dollar – The Gold Train Update

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Back in January we discussed gold’s relation to the dollar.

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We looked at the above chart which demonstrated that gold enters a bullish market as the dollar declines into its 15 year super cycle low.

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The updated chart shows that gold has begun to trend higher as the dollar has begun to trend lower.

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A closer look reveals that gold has reversed from printing lower lows to now printing higher lows. The dollar also had a change. It went from printing higher lows to now printing lower lows.

In this week’s Special Report, The Gold Train Update we will take an updated look at the driver of the gold train — the dollar. We will look at were the dollar is in its yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and its 15 year super cycle. We will look at the DNA markers that signaled the previous dollar bear markets and show that those markers have been triggered again.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.