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The Transports Have Crossed The Line

Last week we looked at the Transports.

They were testing the multi-month trend line and it looked as if they were leaving behind a daily cycle low.

Now that the Transports have closed above the multi-month trend line, this confirms the new daily cycle. And since it is still early in the new daily cycle, I expect that the Transports will be able to sustain a breakout above the 200 day MA.

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The 3/15/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

After peaking on day 5, the dollar has since drifted lower.

The dollar formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Friday, further confirming the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 5 locks in left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday. This ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. It also signals the intermediate cycle is now in decline. A close below the previous daily cycle low of 95.72 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Monday. Stocks then closed above the previous daily cycle high on Friday, confirming the new daily cycle.

Friday was day 5 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, continuing their daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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Miner Warning

While closing above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday and Wednesday begins a daily uptrend for the Miners, Thursday’s swing high signals a concern.

This is week 26 for the intermediate Miner cycle and the Miners have not yet printed a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. So Thursday’s daily swing high following the day 7 peak sets up a possible left translated daily cycle formation. There is a bearish RSI pattern the is beginning to emerge and we can see that the TSI has begun a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows. And with this being week 26 for the intermediate cycle, the late January Gap will likely begin to exert a gravitational pull, sending the Miners into their intermediate cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will indicate that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. Then a close back below the lower daily cycle and will end the daily uptrend and continue the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks Confirm The New Daily Cycle

Last week the daily equity cycle peaked on day 45, formed a swing high, then closed below the 10 day MA to confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks went on to close below the 200 day MA and print their lowest point on Friday, day 49, placing them late in their timing band for printing a daily cycle low.

Stocks formed a swing low and recovered the 200 day MA on Monday. Stocks then closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle. Prior to the daily cycle decline stocks had established a daily uptrend that was characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Since the swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band, that indicates that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

Transports Ready To Cross The Line

The Transports had a big day on Monday rallying for 1.94%.

The Transports formed a swing low on Monday off of support from the 50 day MA. A swing low at this late stage should mark the daily cycle low. The Transports stopped short of resistance from a multi month trend line. Notice in February that the Transports did briefly break above the declining trend line. But it was too late in the daily cycle for a sustained breakout. But with Friday potentially marking the DCL, a break above this line will signal that the Transports are getting in gear.

The 3/08/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA the previous Friday and closed above the upper daily cycle band on Tuesday to confirm that day 19 hosted the daily cycle low.

The dollar broke above the previous daily cycle high on Thursday to continue a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Friday was day 6 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar did not deliver any bullish follow through to Thursday’s huge day. A close back below the 97 level would signal a bull trap and indicate that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Friday was day 49, placing stocks in the later stage of its timing band to print a daily cycle low.

Stocks have:
* Formed a daily swing high
* Broke below the daily cycle trend line
* Closed below the 10 day MA & Turned it lower
* Are late in their timing band for a DCL.

Once a swing low forms that should mark the daily cycle low. Then a close back above the 200 day MA will confirm the DCL. The high on Friday, day 45, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band, then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The Dollar Crossed The Line

Back in February we observed how the dollar was rejected by the 97 level to head down into a daily cycle low. Well, the dollar crossed above that 97 line on Thursday.

Thursday was day 5 for the new daily cycle and the dollar broke out to a new daily cycle high to continue a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend trend. It will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar also broke out to a new yearly cycle high.

The dollar broke above the November high on Thursday. Since there was no failed intermediate cycle preceding the month 11 pivot, that makes March month 13 for the yearly dollar cycle. The new high also causes us to re-construct the monthly trend line. The dollar is in a monthly uptrend and will continue in its monthly uptrend unless it closes back below the lower monthly cycle band.

The3/07/19 Morning Update

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday.

Wednesday was day 47 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The high on Friday, day 45, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Closing below the 10 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. With stocks being late in their daily cycle, a DCL can happen anytime soon. And if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend.

Miner Support

Monday was day 11 for the daily Miner cycle which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. However, the miners formed a swing low off of support from the 50 day MA on Tuesday. So even if Monday was an early daily cycle low, the longer term weekly picture remains bearish.

This is week 25 for the intermediate Miner cycle, which places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While the Miners have formed a weekly swing high, they have yet to close below the 10 week MA to signal the intermediate cycle is in decline. And once in decline, the Miners should break below the weekly trend line before forming their intermediate cycle low.

Stocks Are Firmly in a Daily Uptrend

Stocks were down big early on Monday but rallied enough into the close to close above the 10 day MA.

Monday was day 46 for the daily equity cycle. With stocks now late in their timing band for a daily cycle decline, the early sell off should have triggered a decline into the daily cycle low.

Instead, equities are all up in the overnight trading. While I suspect that optimism over a pending trade deal with China is helping equities maintain their bullish posture, what is certain is that stocks are firmly in a daily uptrend.

A daily uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. So unless stocks close below the lower daily cycle band, they will remain in their daily uptrend.