About likesmoneystudies

I likes money

The 10/20/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday to confirm that day 24 hosted the DCL which makes Friday day 5 of the new daily cycle.

The dollar established a daily uptrend prior to the drop into the daily cycle low. By closing back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday affirms the daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday and appear to have begun a new daily cycle.

A decline into a daily cycle low normally lasts 7 to 15 days. The peak on day 40 is an extremely right translated daily cycle formation which does not leave much time in the normal timing band for a normal daily cycle decline. We also discussed how the behavior of previous 2 intermediate cycle has changed because they did not produce a failed daily cycle. Unless proven otherwise this change in behavior is filtering down to the daily cycle level as evidenced by the 1 day decline into a daily cycle low.

Part of our evidence that stocks printed a 1 day daily cycle decline is that both the Russell and the transports delivered a more recognizable daily cycle decline. All three have formed swing lows and closed back above their respective 10 day MA’s to signal new daily cycles. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Advertisements

Right Translation

The S&P, the Russell and the Transports are all forming right translated daily cycles. Right translated daily cycles trend higher in a stair step fashion.

All 3 are getting late in their timing bands for a daily cycle low. Both the Russell and the transports have delivered a recognizable correction while the S&P has only formed a swing high. If there has been a change in character, as we discussed here, then we may not see much in the way of a correction for the S&P. However, all three remain in a daily uptrend. So if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band the correction strategy is to buy the dip. That is because once an asset is in a daily uptrend, they will remain so until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Energy stocks have also formed a right translated daily cycle.

XLE peaked on day 27 and has since been slowly working its way into its daily cycle low. A peak on day 27 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. XLE printed its lowest point on Thursday, following the day 27 peak. That places XLE deep in its timing band for a DCL. At this point a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will confirm a new daily cycle. XLE has begun a new daily uptend. It will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Change of Character – Revisited

We discussed back on 10/01/17 that stocks were beginning to exhibit a change of character. I thought that tonight we would a revisit that discussion.

That last time that stocks printed a failed daily cycle was during the decline into the October, 2016 intermediate cycle low. Following the 10/2016 intermediate low the intermediate cycle timing bands still worked, but two times in a row stocks did not deliver a failed daily cycle during their intermediate cycle decline. I said then that “I believe that this weekly uptrend is becoming so strong that we may not see a failed daily cycle until the weekly uptrend ends.” And that continues to be the case.

But I will point out that both the RUT & the transports delivered failed daily cycles. So I thought that it would be interesting to look at the current daily cycle for all three.

Both the RUT & the transports are in their timing bands for seeking out a daily cycle low. Both have formed swing highs and delivered trend line breaks to confirm their daily cycle declines. But stocks keep drifting higher. Since stocks have already exhibited a change of behavior by not forming a failed daily cycle we need to be prepared for another change of character, a mild daily cycle decline.

I would like to see stocks form a swing high and deliver a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. However, if both the RUT & the transports form a swing low and close back above their 10 day MA that would signal a new daily cycle. And if stocks only continue to drift sideways we may be forced to recognize any mild dip at that point as the daily cycle low.

So going forward there may be a question if our timing band tool will be effective as stocks continue in their weekly uptrend. But what has been effective is our cycle band tool. Our cycle band tool has been able to identify both the daily and weekly uptrends. As long as any dip forms a swing low above the lower cycle band, then the correct strategy is that the dip should be bought because stocks will continue in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

A Miner Downtrend

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing high on Monday.

Monday’s swing high broke below the daily cycle trend line to close below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. This signals that the daily cycle is now in decline.

Monday was day 10 for the daily Miner cycle. A peak on day 9 can often result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 22.91 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Miners began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 59 DCL. This began their daily downtrend. Since the Miners failed to close above the upper daily cycle band before forming their daily swing high, they remain in their daily downtrend. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The 10/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

Friday’s bullish reversal at support off the 50 day MA sets up for a daily cycle low to form. 

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 24.  That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal off of support from the 50 day MA eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low.  A  break above 93.09 forms a daily swing low.  A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend & will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continued higher printing a new high on Friday, day 37.


 

Stocks are in their timing band for a seeking a DCL.  At this point a swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Beware Bonds

Bonds finally appear to have confirmed a new daily cycle.

Bonds printed their lowest point last Friday. That was day 12, which is usually too early for a daily cycle low. However bonds have now:
* Broke above the declining trend line
* Delivered a bullish zero line crossover on the TSI
* Closed above the lower daily cycle band
* Closed above the 10 day MA
* Managed to turn the 10 day MA higher.

All of which convinces me that day 12 hosted the DCL.

The bigger picture is that bonds are in their timing band for a yearly cycle low and are in an interemdiate cycle decline.

Bonds have formed a monthly swing high in October. A monthly swing high is required for the yearly cycle decline. Bonds will need to deliver some bearish follow through to confirm that the yearly cycle is in decline.

Bonds are already in a daily downtrend. If the yearly cycle decline has begun then I suspect that we will see bonds backtest the 50 day MA and then rollover into another left translated daily failed cycle in order to complete the yearly cycle decline.

Oil Signals A New Daily Cycle

Oil printed its lowest point on Monday, which was day 25. That is 5 days shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. However, oil is giving every indication that a daily cycle low has formed.

The decline into the day 25 low caused oil to deliver a 50% fib retracement, which we can see at a DCL. Oil then formed a swing low on Tuesday and delivered more bullish follow through on Wednesday causing oil has closed back above the 10 day MA. Oil also has closed above the upper daily cycle band to indicate that it continues in its daily uptrend. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

A Miner Rally

0 miner surprise

Last week we discussed how the Miners formed a daily cycle low. We also discussed that the dollar emerging out of a potential yearly cycle low would likely cause a left translated cycle formation. So today I wanted to take a follow up look at the Miners.

The Miners did close above the 50 day MA on Friday and provided more bullish follow through on Tuesday. However the Miners printed 170 million SOS on Friday and 108 million SOS on Monday. Typically these types of Selling on Strength numbers are associated with an intermediate cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners printed another higher high. But, Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle eases the parameters for forming a swing high. Since the Miners are already in a daily downtrend, a swing high here will allow the Miners to remain in their daily downtrend. A break below 23.53 would form a daily swing high. The Miners will continue in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Equity Timing Band

Tuesday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low.

Stocks printed their daily cycle high last Thursday, day 31, which assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. But stocks have since closed lower for 2 straight days, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 2450.02 forms a swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks are in a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. As long as stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band, then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. And under that scenario, the dip should be bought.

The transports have already confirmed their daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 31 for the transports daily cycle. That places them in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The transports have already formed a swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that they have entered their daily cycle decline. The transports have also been in a daily uptrend. They will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10/06/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday, setting up a potential move down into a daily cycle low.

Friday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle, placing the dollar in its timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 93.60 will form a daily swing high. The dollar continues to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

trend line

Stocks
stocks

Thursday’s new high on day 31 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Friday was day 32 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for seeking out a daily cycle low. A swing high and trend line break will confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below 2540.02 would form a daily swing high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.