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Major Resistance for the Miners

We discussed last week how there is a change in behavior for the Miners. RSI being embedded in overbought along with the Miners closing above the upper daily cycle band are characteristic of a new intermediate cycle.

The Miners lost the 200 day MA in June and have been unable to close back above it. For the past few days the Miners have been consolidating the break above the 50 Day MA. If (once) they break higher, then 200 day MA is the next area of major resistance for the Miners. The odds that areas of resistance turning a cycle lower increase as the daily cycle matures, so there is a good chance that the 200 day MA will be a short-term top for the Miners.

Stocks Deliver Bullish Follow Through

We discussed last week that stocks needed to close above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks closed convincingly above the declining trend line on Thursday then deliverered bullish follow through on Friday and Monday to close above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

The decline into the ICL has stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. A quick recovery of the all time highs could trigger a final melt-up phase.

A Miner Change In Character

The Miners are beginning to consolidate below the 50 day MA.

The initial rally out of the daily cycle low caused the Miners to become stretched above the 10 day MA. Consolidating below the 50 day MA is allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Notice how RSI 05 is beginning to become embedded in overbought.

Previously RSI 05 was embedding in oversold and reversed quickly once overbought, which is characteristic of the declining phase of the intermediate cycle. RSI embedding in overbought is a signal that the Miners are starting the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. The Miners will need to close above the 50 day MA in order for a trending move to be sustained. 

Stocks Need To Cross The Line

While stocks closed above the 10 day MA last week to signal a new daily cycle …

…stocks still need to close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 31 was the DCL. Instead, stocks formed a lower swing high on Monday. Stocks are currrenrlty in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

The 10/09/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar peaked on day 18 and has since consolidated above the breakout from the previous daily cycle high.

Friday was day 24, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. The weekly chart shows us that the dollar is running into resistance at the 200 week MA. A close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar currently is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 31, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. 

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday then closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. Stocks should go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of the DCL. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker,

For subscribers click here.

Gold Signals New Daily Cycle

Gold printed its lowest point on day 36 to place it deep in its timing band for a DCL.

Gold formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday. On Monday closed above the declining trend line to signal a new daily cycle. Gold is still contained by both the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. Gold needs to close above both these MA’s in order for any rally to be sustained.

Bullish Reversal

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Friday.

Stocks broke below the day 21 low on Friday to extend their daily cycle decline. Friday was day 30, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 4375.19 will form a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.  

In the Weekend Report I discuss why I expect this to be not only a daily cycle low, but an intermediate cycle low as well. And what I am looking for to signal a final melt-up phase to this bull run.

This week I am offering a special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special 6 Week Trial Subscription offer for $15. click here.

Stocks Deliver Bearish Follow Through

We discussed on Tuesday how stocks lost the 10 day MA. Stocks delivered bearish follow through on Thursday.

Thursday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in the early part of the their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks should break below the day 21 low of 4305.91 in order to complete their daly cycle decline. There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that often precede a cycle low. There is a chance that stocks will break below the day 21 low and form a bullish reversal, which would ease the parameters for forming a swing low. Still, we should wait for a swing low to signal the new daily cycle. In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss how stocks are also seeking out their intermediate cycle low.

Stocks Lose The 10 Day MA

We discussed on Monday that one of the confirmations of a DCL is turning the 10 day MA higher. On Tuesday, stocks lost the 10 day MA and turned it lower.

Stocks needed to turn the 10 day MA higher and break above the declining trend line in order to confirm that day 21 was the DCL. Instead, losing the 10 da y MA in a clear and convincing manner signals a continuation of the daily cycle decline — making Tuesday day 27. Stocks should go on to break below the day 21 low of 4305.91 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.

Stocks Need To Turn The 10 Day MA Higher

Stocks are beginning to consolidate along the 50 day MA.

One of the confirmations of a DCL is turning the 10 day MA higher. The decline into the day 21 DCL caused the 10 day MA to turn steeply lower. Stocks may need to consolidate for a few days in order to allow the 10 day MA to flatten before it can turn higher. Then stocks should go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.