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The 12/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. This indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday. At 12 days, that is too early to expect a DCL. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday. It is likely that this is a counter trend rally to back test the 50 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will continue in its downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks delivered sell signals on Thursday. But breaking to a new high on Friday to negate the daily swing high.

Friday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. It also solidifies the daily cycle trend line. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun its daily cycle decline. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Equity Sell Signal

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows above the lower daily cycle band. While stocks remain in their daily uptrend, they delivered some sell signals on Thursday.

After dipping into a half cycle low last week stocks broke out to a new high on Tuesday and Wednesday. However stocks formed a swing high on Thursday and printed a failed breakout which signals that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The divergent TSI along with the bearish TSI crossover are other signals that stocks are beginning their daily cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline.

Meanwhile the Miners continue to develop bullishly.

After the huge day on Wednesday it is not unexpected to see the Miners give back a little on Thursday. However, the Miners continue to develop bullishly as buyers stepped in once the Miners tagged the 10 day MA. That helps to further confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL. And this has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I discussed in Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.

If you are interested in the Mid-Week Update, I am running a special through Sunday. I am offering a 6 week trial subscription for $15.

The trial subscription will give you full access to the premium site. Which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates The Weekend Updates looks of the daily & weekly charts of DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The Miners Deliver Buy Signals

0 miner surprise

The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Tuesday, which was day 26. That places them in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The Miners delivered buy signals on Wednesday as they reversed higher.

Wednesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. Other buy signals that printed on Wednesday include bullish crossovers on both the RSI & TSI and closing above the lower daily cycle band. Wednesday’s swing low also has implications on the longer term intermediate cycle which I plan to discuss in tonights Mid-Week Update.

If you are interested in the Mid-Week Update, I will be running a special through Sunday. I am offering a 6 week trial subscription for $15.

The trial subscription will give you full access to the premium site. Which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates The Weekend Updates looks of the daily & weekly charts of DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

Seeking A Miner Buy Signal

0 miner surprise

The Miners printed a lower low on Tuesday. At 26 days, the Miners are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bullish divergences are developing on the oscillators that indicate that a DCL is near. The Miners are also in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So the odds are good that once a daily cycle low forms, it will also signal a new intermediate cycle.

A swing low and break of the declining trend line would signal a daily cycle low. However, it is still possible the see the Miners break lower.

Another potential signal would be a gap lower. The Miners gapped lower prior to printing the both the May and July daily cycle lows. Now that the Miners are in their timing band for a a daily cycle low a gap lower could exhaust the selling to set up the final daily cycle low.

Oil Confirms New Daily Cycle

image

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 32, formed a swing high, and then began its daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point last Thursday, day 41, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Oil formed a swing low on Friday. Then it closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm that Monday was day 2 for the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band, continuing in its daily uptrend. And the correct strategy in an uptrend is to buy the dip.

However the longer term picture suggests to proceed with caution.

Oil has now entered the 4th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. This is week 25, which places oil in its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. So while our expectation would be to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated, failed daily cycle oil could still rally for 2 to 3 weeks and still form as a left translated daily cycle.

The 12/08/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Monday to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar rallied this week and printed another higher high on Friday, day 9. Keep in mind that the dollar is in a daily downtrend and a bearish reversal formed on Friday. If a swing high forms off Friday’s candle then that will prevent the dollar from closing above the upper daily cycle band. By not closing above the upper daily cycle band means that the dollar remains its daily downtrend. A break below 93.79 forms a daily swing high. But if the dollar manages to close above the upper daily cycle band then that would signal that the November DCL also marked an early ICL.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered this week stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks retraced to tag the 10 day MA on Wednesday, day 14.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Therefore we can label Wednesday as the half cycle low. Then stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Buy Signal for Robotics

We discussed on 11/26 how Robotics have entered into a new bull market.
Well Robotics delivered some buy signals on Thursday.

Robotics have been declining into a daily cycle low. They printed their lowest point on Wednesday, closing below the 50 day MA. They formed a swing low on Thursday, closing back above the 50 day MA. This sets up a low risk entry with a stop being placed below Wednesday’s low.

Robotics have been in a daily uptrend prior to declining into Wednesday’s low. The recovery of the 50 day MA looks very similar to the two previous intermediate lows that printed in April and July. And a close back above the upper daily cycle band will re-establish the daily uptrend.

Miner Clarity

0 miner surprise

Prior to this week, Week 16 was the lowest point for the Miners following the early September peak. Since 16 weeks was a bit early for an intermediate cycle low we were looking for a close above the rising 50 week MA for confirmation of a new intermediate cycle.

As shown from Saturday’s chart from the Weekend Report it’s been four weeks since the week 16 low and the Miners haven’t closed above the rising 50 week MA.

However, as you will see in the next chart they have finally delivered some clarity.

This week the Miners broke below the week 16 low in a clear and convincing manner to make this week 21 for the intermediate Miner Cycle. And 21 weeks places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Which means that the odds are favorable that the next daily cycle low will also signal the intermediate cycle low.

I plan to breakdown the status for Miner’s daily cycle in tonights Mid-Week Update.

Bullish Signals

Stocks were down again on Monday.

Monday was day 12 for the daily equity cycle. Despite printing two consecutive losses, stocks are still delivering bullish signals. The first bullish signal to point out is that stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that stocks are in a daily uptrend.

Stocks just printed back to back huge Buying on Weakness days. The large numbers printed on Friday and Monday look more like the type of numbers typically seen prior to an intermediate cycle low. Historically speaking, large Buying on Weakness numbers have been followed by stocks breaking higher.

The other thing to keep in mind is that stocks are also in their most bullish time of the year.

I think what happened is that stocks emerged out of the day 60 DCL and got overheated and got too stretched above the 10 day MA. So stocks needed to consolidate the gain. The large BOW numbers are signaling bullish interest. So the take away is that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. And the correct strategy in the daily uptrend is to buy the dip as we have seen with the day 60 DCL.

Miners Face Major Resistance

0 miner surprise

The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday following the day 16 peak. Thursday was day 18, placing the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

The Miners formed a swing low on Friday. The Miners will need to close above the 10 day MA in order to signal a new daily cycle. And even if the Miners do close above the 10 day MA they face major resistance from both the declining 200 day MA and the declining 50 day MA. The Miners will remain bearish until the Miners can close convincing above the 50 day MA.