Stocks closed above the day 10 MA on Thursday, casting some doubt if day 33 hosted the DCL. As I have stated previously, I am in the camp that recognizes day 33 as a DCL. Which would make Thursday – day 20.
The other scenario does not recognize day 33 as the DCL, which would make Thursday – day 53. And then we still need to allow for a decline into a daily cycle low. Allowing 7 to 10 days for decline would take stocks to day 60 or beyond. Only two of the last 12 daily cycles stretched to 60 days or longer. Which makes the likelihood of a stretched daily cycle – a low probability scenario. I think that the Fed intervened on day 33 and prevented stocks from declining into a more recognizable DCL.
The big picture is that stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.
This is week 31 for the intermediate equity cycle. Only 1 weekly cycle in the last 10 weekly cycles stretched past week 31. Stocks are over due to begin their intermediate cycle decline. A left translated failed daily cycle usually ushers in the intermediate cycle decline. Which is why I am in the camp that day 33 hosted a DCL. A day 33 DCL means that the current daily cycle peaked on day 10 — which would set this daily cycle up as a left translated daily cycle.