Dollar Low

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The dollar printed it lowest point on Wednesday following an extended daily cycle decline. Then the dollar formed a swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle.

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Even though the past 7 daily cycles have stretched to over 32 days from trough to trough, Wednesday was day 54 making this a very stretched daily cycle. The dollar formed a clear and convincing daily swing low on Thursday to signal a new daily cycle. The dollar still needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Once the new daily cycle is confirmed, I suspect that the dollar will also leave behind an intermediate and a yearly cycle low, which I plan to cover in the Weekend Report.

As the dollar rallies out of its yearly cycle low that should send gold into its yearly cycle decline.

gld weekly

Gold formed a weekly swing low off the week 21 low. Gold then regained 50 week MA and closed above the upper weekly cycle band on week 3 to indicate that week 21 hosted the ICL. The only thing missing from the week 21 low was a failed daily cycle. Otherwise all indications are the gold is now in its 2nd intermediate cycle for the year. I suspect that the impending dollar rally out of its yearly cycle low will see the dollar form a right translated weekly cycle. That should cause this new intermediate gold cycle to form as a left translated weekly cycle leading into its yearly cycle decline. Which appears to be in progress.

So far this week gold has formed a weekly swing high. If gold manages to close below both the 50 week MA and the 10 week MA that will further indicate that gold has begun its intermediate cycle decline. The peak on week 4 will assure us of a left translated weekly cycle formation. Since a failed weekly cycle is needed to confirm the yearly cycle decline gold will need to break below the previous ICL of 1214.30 to form a failed weekly cycle.

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