The 3/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar is getting late in its timing band to form a daily cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 19 peak. The dollar’s daily cycle has averaged 31 days since printing its yearly cycle low in May. Friday was day 30, placing the dollar in its timing band to a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break above 100.28 will form a daily swing low. Then a close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Since the declining trend line is over 1.6% away we will use a close above the declining 50 day MA as confirmation of a new daily cycle.

1 $$$ d aily 00

The peak on day 19 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation and the the February DCL also hosted an intermediate cycle low. But by closing below the lower daily cycle band, that ends the daily uptrend and is a signal that the next daily cycle may form as a left translated cycle.


The daily equity cycle peaked on day 40, formed a swing high then broke below the (red-dashed) accelerated trend line to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 46. That was not enough to break below the (black) daily cycle trend line. But 46 days places stocks in the later stage of its timing band for a daily cycle low. There were other indicators that day 46 hosted the DCL including the TSI bearish zero line crossover prior to day 46 and the bullish TSI zero line crossover following day 46. Stocks also closed convincingly above the 10 day MA on Wednesday providing more confirmation that Day 46 hosted the DCL.

Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will continue in its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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2 thoughts on “The 3/17/17 Weekend Report Preview

  1. the actual trendline for $USD is not that prohibitive because it is a different line.
    shouldn’t it be drawn btw the high of Mar 9 and that of MAR 15 since there was a failed swing low in the timing band for a DCL on MAR13?

    • …furthermore, such a 2nd trend line would overlap 10dma, thus easing thelikelyhood for its break next week.

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