Risk/Reward

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The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band for the second straight day. There is a risk that the Miners are beginning a daily downtrend.

gdx

The Miners printed a narrow range lower low on Tuesday. At 22 days, that places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. So a swing low could signal a new daily cycle. A break above 23.42 will form a daily swing low.

By breaking below the day 24 low, there is a risk that the Miners printed a failed daily cycle and is beginning a decline into an intermediate cycle low. And based on the weekly cycle count, a decline into an intermediate cycle low from this point could last up to 14 or more weeks.

But there is the potential for a reward here. Since the narrow range day has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low, a long position can be entered with a stop below Tuesday’s low, therefore minimizing risk.

The potential for reward rests with the possibility that day 24 was not the daily cycle low which would make Tuesday day 46. That would make this a right translated daily cycle, We would therefore have the expectation to see the Miners print a higher daily cycle high.

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4 thoughts on “Risk/Reward

  1. If you look at the first cycle from 2016 it was longer, the cycles in my analysis is 30-50 days, and 30 days in gold, i think this is the first DCL. your toughts??

    2017-02-28 23:53 GMT+01:00 Cycle Trading :

    > likesmoneystudies posted: ” The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle > band for the second straight day. There is a risk that the Miners are > beginning a daily downtrend. The Miners printed a narrow range lower low on > Tuesday. At 22 days, that places the Miners in ” >

    • I think that January hosted a 24 day DCL and that Tuesday was day 22.
      However, I would like to keep an open mind to other possibilities.

      LM

  2. Hi Lm,

    just to make sure if I’m getting this right There’s a chance that we actually saw one cycle so far and not 2 of course we only will know this in the coming days let me know Greetz Ray

    Van: “Cycle Trading” Aan: “rm99″ Verzonden: Dinsdag 28 februari 2017 23:53:44 Onderwerp: [New post] Risk/Reward

    WordPress.com likesmoneystudies posted: ” The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band for the second straight day. There is a risk that the Miners are beginning a daily downtrend. The Miners printed a narrow range lower low on Tuesday. At 22 days, that places the Miners in “

    • I think that January hosted a 24 day DCL and that Tuesday was day 22.
      However, I would like to keep an open mind to other possibilities.
      The more concerning thing to me are the 2 straight days of closing below the lower daily cycle band…

      LM

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