Dollar Hammer

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The dollar broke lower on Thursday before reversing to rally into the close.

$$$ daily

Thursday was day 37 for the daily dollar cycle which places the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish hammer eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 99.84 forms a swing low and will likely signal the new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.

The dollar on the verge of beginning a new daily cycle and that has me skeptical that day 28 hosted a daily cycle low for gold.

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Gold printed its lowest point last Friday, day 28. The reversal off the 50 day MA does look like a daily cycle low. But with the dollar printing a bullish reversal it appears that gold has reciprocated by printing a false breakout. A swing high and a close below the 10 day MA would signal that Thursday was day 32 and that gold is now beginning its daily cycle decline.

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