A Miner Reminder

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The dollar broke decisively lower on Monday.

1 $$$

The dollar broke below the 10 day MA and closed below the upper daily cycle band on Monday to confirm that the dollar has entered its daily cycle decline. The peak on day 14 makes it likely that the dollar will form a right translated daily cycle, which should print a higher daily cycle low. But the weekly set-up suggests that the next daily cycle will form as a left translated daily cycle.

2 $$$ weekly

The intermediate dollar cycle peaked on week 14 and has formed a clear and convincing weekly swing high. At 16 weeks the dollar is just 2 weeks shy of entering its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. Which means that the odds increase for the next daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle. However, a case can be made that this is actually week 31 of an extended weekly cycle. If that is the case then the dollar is way overdue for an intermediate cycle decline. Either scenario has us expecting the next daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle.

So now let’s look at what happened to the Miners the last time the dollar had a major intermediate cycle decline.

3 $$$ :GDX

The Miners emerged from their yearly cycle low the last time that the dollar had a major intermediate cycle decline. That was a monster rally that saw the Miners rally of over 100%.

Once again, the Miners are in their timing band to emerge from a yearly cycle low

 

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