The 11/23/16 Morning Oil Update

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Oil’s yearly cycle peaked in October, month 8, which means that oil has entered its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low.

1 oil yearly

Oil did form a monthly swing high in November. But I do not believe that oil has completed its yearly cycle decline.

2 oil weekly

A failed cycle of a lower order confirms the cycle decline of a higher order. Specifically for oil, a failed intermediate cycle confirms the yearly cycle decline for oil. So oil would have to break below the previous intermediate low of 39.19 in order to form a failed weekly cycle to confirm the yearly cycle decline. The current weekly cycle high printed on week 11. If that holds as the weekly high sets up a possible left translated weekly cycle formation.

3 oil daily

Our weekly framework needs a failed weekly cycle to complete its yearly cycle decline. A failed daily cycle aligns with that expectation. If oil forms a swing high & loses the 50 day MA then oil would be forming a left translated daily cycle.

Which should set things in motion for oil to complete its yearly cycle decline.

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One thought on “The 11/23/16 Morning Oil Update

  1. Pingback: Oil Slipping Lower | Cycle Trading

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