Miner Recovery

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The Miners printed their highest point on Wednesday, day 16, breaking above the 50 day MA. However, the Miners could not hang onto those gains and closed down 1.47% on Wednesday. The Miners recovered that loss on Thursday.

gdx daily

Thursday was day 17 for the daily Miner cycle. While the Miners delivered the highest close for the current daily cycle we need to keep in mind that day 17 places the Miners 1 day shy of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low. At this point we do not know if the Miners are ready to roll over into a daily cycle decline. But a daily swing high and close below the 10 day MA will deliver good odds that the daily cycle decline has started.

There are two things to keep in mind: there is a bearish divergence developing on the daily True Strength Indicator. And the Miners topped Thursday’s Selling on Strength list.

But the Miners appear to have left behind an intermediate cycle low in early October. So a daily cycle decline would be a good opportunity to buy the dip.

gdx weekly

There are four reasons that signal an intermediate cycle low has been set.

1) A weekly swing low formed off of the lowest point, which was week 20. That places the Miners in the timing band for an ICL
2) The Miners breached the declining weekly trend line.
3) There is a bullish crossover on the weekly TSI.
4) The daily cycle looks to be forming as a right translated cycle.

All of this points to week 20 hosted the intermediate cycle low.

Unless the impending daily cycle decline causes the Miners to lose the 200 week MA, then it is pretty good odds that the Miners are on week 3 of the new intermediate cycle.

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