Joker in the Deck

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Gold has been crawling along the 200 day MA for most of the past month. Crawls along the moving average are usually continuation patterns, which would mean an expectation of a bearish break lower for gold.

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Thursday was day 14 for the daily gold cycle. Gold managed to regain the 10 day MA last Tuesday and has continued to close above it since. I believe a close below the 10 day MA will signal gold’s final decline into its daily cycle low. The Joker the Deck is the dollar.

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The dollar is overdue for a daily cycle decline. The gold rallied the previous two times that the dollar. If the dollar continues to rally then surely gold will roll over into a final daily cycle decline. But if the dollar closes below the 10 day MA, that would signal that the dollar has finally begun its daily cycle decline — which then should send gold higher.

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