Gold printed its lowest point on October 7th, following the day 3 peak and has since drifted sideways.
While gold has regained the 10 day MA and delivered a bullish zero line crossover on the daily TSI gold has still yet to confirm that it is in a new daily cycle. And the reason for the weak daily cycle is largely due to the rallying dollar. The dollar has been rallying for the past 46 days and it is remarkable that gold managed any kind of rally at all.
So assuming that October 7th was the daily cycle low, that would make Monday day 11. Which means that gold will be entering the later stages of this daily cycle. And with each passing day that gold does not rally will begin to shift the odds towards a left translated daily cycle formation.
Another factor hampering gold is the resistance from the declining 200 week MA.
After peaking on week 5, gold broke below the 200 week MA on the way to printing its lowest point on week 18. The past 3 weeks gold has been contained by the declining 200 week MA and appears to be forming a mini bear flag. Since 18 weeks is on the early end of gold’s timing band for printing an intermediate low, we could easily see gold break lower here.
If gold does break bearishly out of the mini bear flag then I think that it would be likely for gold to break below the previous intermediate low of 1201.50 which would form a failed weekly cycle.