Friday’s bearish reversal signals that start of the daily cycle decline. A break below 96.40 forms a daily swing high.
Regardless if day 14 hosted an early DCL, the dollar is either in its timing band (day 21) or very late (day 35) to begin a daily cycle decline. If day 14 hosted a DCL then this is the 2nd daily cycle and it has made a higher daily cycle high — and supporting an August ICL scenario. A decline into its impending daily cycle low should see the dollar lose the 200 day MA and possibly the 50 day MA. The dollar should also break below the daily cycle trend line before completing its daily cycle decline.
Stocks closed below the cycle trend line on Tuesday which should at least result in a decline into a half cycle low. A break of the day 11 low of 2141.55 would be needed to establish a half cycle low. However a close below the lower daily cycle band would indicate something more sinister is at hand.
The daily equity cycle peaked on day 8, printed its lowest point on day 11, and has been consolidating in a 38 point range. If stocks break lower and close below the lower daily cycle band that would signal the start of the daily cycle decline and assure us of a left translated daily cycle formation.
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