Gold Cycle Update

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Gold has been volatile since printing its failed daily cycle low in late August. And this volatility has made it difficult to maintain an accurate daily cycle count.

gold

A 10 day daily cycle low is really too early for a daily cycle low, I believe that Tuesday was day 17 for gold’s daily cycle. That places gold 1 day shy of entering its timing band
for a daily cycle low. Since a cycle low is the lowest point following the cycle peak, gold will need to break below the day 10 low of 1309.20 to complete its daily cycle decline.

Since gold did find support at the 10 day MA on Tuesday I would like to discuss the possibility that day 10 did host an early daily cycle low. If gold forms a swing low and breaks above the declining trend line, then that would validate the day 10 daily cycle scenario. Which we would then need to label Tuesday as day 7 of the new daily cycle.

gld weekly

The weekly charts shows us that gold has been consolidating its break above the 200 week MA since June. This consolidation makes it possible that week 13 did host an early intermediate cycle low. A break above the declining weekly trend line would confirm a week 13 intermediate low scenario. But, if gold breaks below the week 13 low of 1305.50 that will signal that this is week 17 and gold is making its final decline into its intermediate cycle low.

However this plays out its important to recognize that gold is in a weekly uptrend. And that gold will remain in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

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