Holding Pattern

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Stocks and the dollar both appear to be in a holding pattern while waiting on the results of of the FOMC meeting.

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Beginning with the dollar: The dollar did manage to regain the 50 day MA on Tuesday but is still being contained by the 200 day MA. We discussed on Monday how I was reluctant to label day 14 as a daily cycle low until we see how the dollar negotiates the 200 day MA.

If day 14 was not a daily cycle low that would make Tuesday day 22. And I do not believe that the dollar would be able to close above such a major movie average like the 200 MA so late in the cycle if Tuesday was day 22. So a close above the 200 day MA makes it likely that Tuesday was day 8 of a new daily cycle.

Rejection by the 200 day MA would send the dollar into its final daily cycle decline and allow for the possibility that Tuesday was day 22.

spx

Ever since stocks printed their lowest point on day 53, they have been churning sideways. Day 53 already places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks still need to break above 2163.30 in order to form a daily swing low. However, it is still possible for stocks to break lower after the FOMC’s statement on Wednesday. If that were to happen then any break lower would likely be short lived due to the lateness of the current daily cycle. But barring a break lower, stocks need to break above the day 53 low of 6163.30 in order to form a daily swing low to signal the start of a new daily cycle.

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