The dollar rally strongly on Friday to close above the 50 day MA and test the 200 day MA. The dollar then retreated on Monday closing back below the 50 day MA. Now it is decision time for the dollar.
We discussed in the Weekend Report my reluctance to label day 14 as a daily cycle low until we see what happens with the 200 day MA. If the dollar is in an intermediate decline then it should be rejected by the 200 MA and roll over to complete its daily cycle decline. However, a close above the 200 MA would provide further evidence for an early 14 day, daily cycle low.
Stocks have yet to deliver conclusive evidence that it has started a new daily cycle.
Stocks printed its lowest point last Monday following the day 34 cycle peak. While 53 days does place stocks late in their timing band to print a daily cycle low, stocks could still go lower. Stocks need to form a daily swing low and regain the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. A break above 2163.30 forms a daily swing low.