The Dollar Decisively Drops

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The dollar dropped over a point on Tuesday.

$$$ daily

Over the past week the dollar has been rejected by the 200 day MA and then lost the 50 day MA. On Tuesday the dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band. This indicates that the dollar is resuming its daily downtrend. A break below the previous cycle low of 94.05 will form a failed daily cycle and confirm the continuation to its intermediate cycle decline …which gold responded to in a very bullish manner.

gld daily

Gold broke below the previous daily cycle low last week, forming a failed daily cycle. It printed its cycle low on Thursday, day 30. Gold formed a swing low on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. Gold delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday, breaking above the declining cycle trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Gold also closed above the upper daily cycle band. That signals an end to the daily downtrend and gives us our first indication that gold has begun a new intermediate cycle.

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2 thoughts on “The Dollar Decisively Drops

  1. LM, the length of the IC seems quite short to have a new IC starting. If you ignored the band and just used cycle analysis and your gut, do you think a new IC has started? TIA

    • Setting aside cycle Bands, Gold still formed a failed daily cycle last week.
      The failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

      While we are looking at a potential 13 week intermediate cycle low finding support just above the 200 week MA, the previous intermediate cycle was a bit stretched at 26 weeks. So the early ICL balances out the previous weekly cycle.

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