The dollar currently is in a daily downtrend that is characterized by highs occurring below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band.
The dollar ran into resistance at the 50 day MA. Monday was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Should the dollar form a swing high here it will remain in its daily downtrend. A break below 95.44 forms a daily swing high.
Once the dollar forms a swing high, we will likely see gold form a swing low.
Gold printed a bullish reversal that has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. Monday was day 27 which places gold in its timing band to form a daily cycle low. A break above 1328.30 forms a daily swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.
Gold needs to be careful here. The peak on day 8 has locked in a left translated daily cycle formation, which is normally bearish. A break below 1310.70 would form a failed daily cycle signaling the intermediate cycle is in decline. But a daily swing low accompanied by a break of the declining trend line would be a bullish development that would negate the left translated cycle formation.
I think the key here is the dollar. If the dollar regains the 50 day MA and breaks above the 200 MA, that would likely send gold into its intermediate decline. But if the dollar is rejected by the 50 day MA then it would continue in its intermediate decline which should be bullish for gold.