On Wednesday we looked at oil’s daily cycle. Because the BREXIT was such a unique market factor, we could not be sure if the daily cycle low extended out to 6/27 or if Thursday was day 6 of a new, failed daily cycle.
Today oil clarified things.
Today’s break below the 6/27 low makes it quite likely that oil is already in a failed daily cycle which makes Thursday day 13. That means that oil has begun its intermediate cycle decline, which the close below the lower daily cycle band helps to confirm.
The intermediate oil cycle peaked on week 17. A weekly swing high has formed and oil looks like it will close below the upper weekly cycle band, which is another indicator of an intermediate cycle decline. With oil only being on day 13, that leaves 3 to 6 weeks for oil to trend lower before printing a daily cycle low. That would take oil out to about week 24 – 27, which places oil in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So there is a likelihood that the arrival of the daily cycle low will also mark the intermediate cycle low.